2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - National Summary

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-11-02 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 18:47 UTC

Nominees:  Best Polled: ||
Democrat: Republican: History Shown in Graphs: 

Summary View

Probabilistic View (Indep States)

Median:
Biden by 108
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 172 ----- Biden by 48
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 230 ---------- Trump by 6
Odds:
Biden: 97.2% — Tie: 0.3% — Trump: 2.5%

Probabilistic View (Uniform Swing)

Median:
Biden by 132
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 288 ----- Trump by 64
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 294 ---------- Trump by 86
Odds:
Biden: 68.1% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 31.9%

Categorization View

BidenTrumpMargin
Trump BestBiden/Trump TIE
ExpectedBiden/Trump TIE
Biden BestBiden/Trump TIE
The tipping point state is where Biden is ahead by 0.0%.

Probabilistic View

Categorization View

State Breakdown by Category

Click on state names for polling details.

Switch to Column View

Solid Biden

District of Columbia | 3 EV|     (77.2%)    

Massachusetts |11 EV|      36.7%     

Vermont | 3 EV|      33.4%     

Maryland |10 EV|      32.2%     

New York |29 EV|      30.7%     

California |55 EV|      28.9%     

Hawaii | 4 EV|      28.3%     

Delaware | 3 EV|      27.5%     

Connecticut | 7 EV|      26.0%     

Washington |12 EV|      23.3%     

New Jersey |14 EV|      21.0%     

Rhode Island | 4 EV|     (20.8%)    

Oregon | 7 EV|      19.7%     

Maine (CD1) | 1 EV|      19.7%     

Illinois |20 EV|      14.6%     

Colorado | 9 EV|      13.6%     

New Mexico | 5 EV|      12.4%     

Virginia |13 EV|      12.2%     

Maine (All) | 2 EV|      12.2%     

New Hampshire | 4 EV|      11.2%     

Strong Biden

Minnesota |10 EV|       9.3%     

Nebraska (CD2) | 1 EV|       6.0%     

Wisconsin |10 EV|       5.1%     

Weak Biden

Nevada | 6 EV|       3.3%     

Michigan |16 EV|       3.2%     

Maine (CD2) | 1 EV|       2.7%     

•  Pennsylvania |20 EV|       2.3%     

Arizona |11 EV|       1.1%     

Florida |29 EV|       0.7%     

North Carolina |15 EV|       0.6%     

Weak Trump

Iowa | 6 EV|       0.2%     

Ohio |18 EV|       0.8%     

Texas |38 EV|       0.9%     

Georgia |16 EV|       1.7%     

Strong Trump

Montana | 3 EV|       5.5%     

Alaska | 3 EV|       5.9%     

South Carolina | 9 EV|       6.5%     

Missouri |10 EV|       7.6%     

Indiana |11 EV|       9.8%     

Solid Trump

Kansas | 6 EV|      11.2%     

Utah | 6 EV|      11.5%     

Nebraska (All) | 2 EV|     (13.0%)    

Mississippi | 6 EV|      13.3%     

Nebraska (CD1) | 1 EV|  ((((15.3%)))) 

Kentucky | 8 EV|      16.6%     

Louisiana | 8 EV|      16.7%     

Tennessee |11 EV|      17.1%     

Alabama | 9 EV|      18.5%     

South Dakota | 3 EV|      18.6%     

Idaho | 4 EV|      22.6%     

North Dakota | 3 EV|      23.5%     

Oklahoma | 7 EV|      23.6%     

West Virginia | 5 EV|      24.0%     

Arkansas | 6 EV|      27.3%     

Wyoming | 3 EV|      39.9%     

Nebraska (CD3) | 1 EV| (((((46.6%)))))

 

Ten most needed polls:
Nebraska (CD1), Nebraska (CD3), Iowa, Nebraska (All), Rhode Island,
North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Texas, Arizona

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

The number of parentheses around the averages indicates the number of "generic" results that were added to fill out the poll average.

Only results with no parentheses represent a true average of only polls asking specifically about the two candidates shown.

 

Weighted Average* of Time Covered by Poll Averages for these candidates is 2.5 months.

*Time covered by poll average in each state weighted by abs(1/margin) in order to give higher weight to closer states.

 

List of all polls for this candidate pair: HTML

 

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

 

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