2020 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - Kentucky [8 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-28 00:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:57 UTC
Leaders: Biden vs Trump Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Warren vs Trump Sanders vs Trump Buttigieg vs Trump Harris vs Trump Bloomberg vs Trump || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-10-28 00:00
Swayable w/3P
41.5%
55.0%
Trump by 13.5%
2020-10-23 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 04:45
2020-10-27 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
40.0%
59.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-10-20 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:57
2020-10-27 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-10-20 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:57
2020-10-26 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
40.0%
59.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-10-19 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 16:03
2020-10-26 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-10-19 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 16:03
2020-10-24 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-10-17 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-03 16:03
2020-10-24 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
40.0%
59.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-10-17 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-03 16:03
2020-10-23 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
40.0%
59.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 2020-11-02 13:41
2020-10-23 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
41.0%
58.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 2020-11-02 13:41
2020-10-22 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
40.0%
59.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-29
2020-10-30 2020-11-02 13:41
2020-10-22 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-29
2020-10-30 2020-11-02 13:41
2020-10-22 12:00
Bluegrass
38.8%
52.0%
Trump by 13.2%
2020-10-16 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-10-30 01:35
2020-10-14 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
43.0%
55.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-11-02 13:41
2020-10-14 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
42.0%
56.0%
Trump by 14.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-11-02 13:41
2020-10-14 00:00
Mason-Dixon
39.0%
56.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2020-10-12 2020-10-15
2020-10-20 2020-10-21 05:54
2020-10-13 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
42.0%
56.0%
Trump by 14.0%
2020-09-29 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-31 18:35
2020-10-13 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
42.0%
56.0%
Trump by 14.0%
2020-09-29 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-31 18:35
2020-10-11 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
42.0%
57.0%
Trump by 15.0%
2020-09-27 2020-10-25
2020-10-26 2020-10-31 18:35
2020-10-11 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
42.0%
56.0%
Trump by 14.0%
2020-09-27 2020-10-25
2020-10-26 2020-10-31 18:35
2020-10-10 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
42.0%
56.0%
Trump by 14.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-24
2020-10-25 2020-10-31 18:35
2020-10-10 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
42.0%
57.0%
Trump by 15.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-24
2020-10-25 2020-10-31 18:35
2020-10-10 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
42.0%
57.0%
Trump by 15.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 2020-10-31 18:35
2020-10-10 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
42.0%
56.0%
Trump by 14.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 2020-10-31 18:35
2020-10-09 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
42.0%
57.0%
Trump by 15.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-22
2020-10-23 2020-10-26 19:53
2020-10-09 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
42.0%
56.0%
Trump by 14.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-22
2020-10-23 2020-10-26 19:53
2020-10-08 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
42.0%
57.0%
Trump by 15.0%
2020-09-24 2020-10-21
2020-10-22 2020-10-26 19:53
2020-10-08 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-09-24 2020-10-21
2020-10-22 2020-10-26 19:53
2020-10-07 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-09-23 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-26 19:53
2020-10-07 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-09-23 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-26 19:53
2020-10-05 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
42.0%
57.0%
Trump by 15.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-19
2020-10-20 2020-10-26 19:53
2020-10-05 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-19
2020-10-20 2020-10-26 19:53
2020-10-05 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
42.0%
57.0%
Trump by 15.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-18
2020-10-19 2020-10-26 19:53
2020-10-05 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-18
2020-10-19 2020-10-26 19:53
2020-10-04 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-09-20 2020-10-17
2020-10-18 2020-10-26 19:53
2020-10-04 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
42.0%
57.0%
Trump by 15.0%
2020-09-20 2020-10-17
2020-10-18 2020-10-26 19:53
2020-10-02 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-16
2020-10-17 2020-10-26 19:53
2020-10-02 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-16
2020-10-17 2020-10-26 19:53
2020-10-02 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-15
2020-10-16 2020-10-26 19:53
2020-10-02 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
41.0%
58.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-15
2020-10-16 2020-10-26 19:53
2020-10-01 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
41.0%
58.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2020-09-17 2020-10-14
2020-10-15 2020-10-23 18:54
2020-10-01 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-17 2020-10-14
2020-10-15 2020-10-23 05:52
2020-09-29 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-22 20:31
2020-09-29 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
39.0%
59.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-21 22:14
2020-09-29 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-12
2020-10-13 2020-10-18 21:25
2020-09-29 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
39.0%
59.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-12
2020-10-13 2020-10-18 06:32
2020-09-17 00:00
Data for Progress w/Lean [2]
38.0%
56.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-14 2020-09-19
2020-09-23 2020-09-26 23:17
2020-09-17 00:00
Data for Progress w/4P [2]
35.0%
55.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2020-09-14 2020-09-19
2020-09-23 2020-09-26 23:15
2020-09-16 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
39.0%
59.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2020-09-01 2020-09-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-06 21:28
2020-09-16 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
39.0%
59.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2020-09-01 2020-09-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-03 22:40
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-09-12 12:00
Quinnipiac
38.0%
58.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2020-09-10 2020-09-14
2020-09-16 2020-09-16 18:51
2020-08-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
38.0%
60.0%
Trump by 22.0%
2020-08-01 2020-08-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-06 21:25
2020-08-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
38.0%
59.0%
Trump by 21.0%
2020-08-01 2020-08-31
2020-09-23 2020-09-25 18:07
2020-08-01 12:00
Quinnipiac
41.0%
50.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-07-30 2020-08-03
2020-08-06 2020-08-06 23:12
2020-07-29 00:00
Morning Consult
35.0%
59.0%
Trump by 24.0%
2020-07-24 2020-08-02
2020-08-04 2020-08-05 17:01
2020-07-27 12:00
Bluegrass Data
45.0%
52.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2020-07-25 2020-07-29
2020-08-05 2020-08-05 20:17
2020-07-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
37.0%
62.0%
Trump by 25.0%
2020-07-01 2020-07-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-06 21:22
2020-07-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
36.0%
62.0%
Trump by 26.0%
2020-07-01 2020-07-31
2020-09-23 2020-09-25 06:16
2020-07-14 00:00
Spry
33.6%
60.3%
Trump by 26.7%
2020-07-11 2020-07-16
2020-07-22 2020-07-23 19:22
2020-07-10 00:00
Garin-Hart-Yang
41.0%
53.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2020-07-07 2020-07-12
2020-07-14 2020-07-17 18:04
2020-06-19 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
38.0%
60.0%
Trump by 22.0%
2020-06-08 2020-06-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-06 21:20
2020-06-19 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
39.0%
59.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2020-06-08 2020-06-30
2020-09-23 2020-09-24 16:28
2020-06-14 12:00
Civiqs
37.0%
57.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2020-06-13 2020-06-15
2020-06-18 2020-06-19 11:30
2020-06-10 00:00
Garin-Hart-Yang
39.0%
54.0%
Trump by 15.0%
2020-06-07 2020-06-12
2020-07-14 2020-07-17 18:03
2020-05-23 00:00
RMG
36.0%
53.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2020-05-21 2020-05-24
2020-06-01 2020-06-10 03:37
2020-05-15 00:00
PPP
39.0%
55.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-05-14 2020-05-15
2020-05-20 2020-05-20 17:57
2020-05-10 00:00
Garin-Hart-Yang
36.0%
57.0%
Trump by 21.0%
2020-05-07 2020-05-12
2020-07-14 2020-07-17 17:58
2020-04-10 00:00
Bluegrass Data
34.0%
55.0%
Trump by 21.0%
2020-04-07 2020-04-12
2020-08-05 2020-08-06 22:24
2019-07-30 12:00
AARP
41.0%
53.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2019-07-29 2019-07-31
2019-08-15 2019-09-17 08:21
2019-06-12 00:00
Gravis
37.0%
57.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2019-06-11 2019-06-12
2019-06-14 2019-06-19 21:19
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
32.7%
62.5%
REP by 29.8%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-18 06:57
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
37.8%
60.5%
REP by 22.7%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:30
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
41.2%
57.4%
REP by 16.2%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-09-25 05:58
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
39.7%
59.6%
REP by 19.9%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:01
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
41.4%
56.5%
REP by 15.1%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-10 09:35
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
45.8%
44.9%
DEM by 1.0%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-16 09:08
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
44.6%
41.3%
DEM by 3.2%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:36
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
43.9%
55.5%
REP by 11.6%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 09:21
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
39.4%
60.0%
REP by 20.7%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:43
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
47.6%
49.1%
REP by 1.5%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:41
Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races .
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin ".
Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here .
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