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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Kentucky [8 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-28 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:57 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-28 00:00

Swayable w/3P

41.5%

55.0%

Trump
by 13.5%

2020-10-23
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 04:45

2020-10-27 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

40.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 19.0%

2020-10-20
2020-11-02

2020-11-03
2020-11-03 17:57

2020-10-27 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

40.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-10-20
2020-11-02

2020-11-03
2020-11-03 17:57

2020-10-26 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

40.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 19.0%

2020-10-19
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 16:03

2020-10-26 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

40.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-10-19
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 16:03

2020-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

40.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-03 16:03

2020-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

40.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 19.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-03 16:03

2020-10-23 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

40.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 19.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-11-02 13:41

2020-10-23 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

41.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 17.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-11-02 13:41

2020-10-22 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

40.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 19.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-11-02 13:41

2020-10-22 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

40.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-11-02 13:41

2020-10-22 12:00

Bluegrass

38.8%

52.0%

Trump
by 13.2%

2020-10-16
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-10-30 01:35

2020-10-14 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

43.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-11-02 13:41

2020-10-14 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

42.0%

56.0%

Trump
by 14.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-11-02 13:41

2020-10-14 00:00

Mason-Dixon

39.0%

56.0%

Trump
by 17.0%

2020-10-12
2020-10-15

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 05:54

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

42.0%

56.0%

Trump
by 14.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-31 18:35

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

42.0%

56.0%

Trump
by 14.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-31 18:35

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

42.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-31 18:35

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

42.0%

56.0%

Trump
by 14.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-31 18:35

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

42.0%

56.0%

Trump
by 14.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-31 18:35

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

42.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-31 18:35

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

42.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-31 18:35

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

42.0%

56.0%

Trump
by 14.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-31 18:35

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

42.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-26 19:53

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

42.0%

56.0%

Trump
by 14.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-26 19:53

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

42.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-26 19:53

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

41.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-26 19:53

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

41.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-26 19:53

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

41.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-26 19:53

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

42.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-26 19:53

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

41.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-26 19:53

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

42.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-26 19:53

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

41.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-26 19:53

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

41.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-26 19:53

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

42.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-26 19:53

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

40.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-26 19:53

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

41.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-26 19:53

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

40.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-26 19:53

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

41.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 17.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-26 19:53

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

41.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 17.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 18:54

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

40.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 05:52

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

40.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-22 20:31

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

39.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 20.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-21 22:14

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

40.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 21:25

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

39.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 20.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 06:32

2020-09-17 00:00

Data for Progress w/Lean [2]

38.0%

56.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-09-14
2020-09-19

2020-09-23
2020-09-26 23:17

2020-09-17 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P [2]

35.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 20.0%

2020-09-14
2020-09-19

2020-09-23
2020-09-26 23:15

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

39.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 20.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-06 21:28

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

39.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 20.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-03 22:40

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-09-12 12:00

Quinnipiac

38.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 20.0%

2020-09-10
2020-09-14

2020-09-16
2020-09-16 18:51

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

38.0%

60.0%

Trump
by 22.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-06 21:25

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

38.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 21.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 18:07

2020-08-01 12:00

Quinnipiac

41.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-07-30
2020-08-03

2020-08-06
2020-08-06 23:12

2020-07-29 00:00

Morning Consult

35.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 24.0%

2020-07-24
2020-08-02

2020-08-04
2020-08-05 17:01

2020-07-27 12:00

Bluegrass Data

45.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-07-25
2020-07-29

2020-08-05
2020-08-05 20:17

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

37.0%

62.0%

Trump
by 25.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-06 21:22

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

36.0%

62.0%

Trump
by 26.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 06:16

2020-07-14 00:00

Spry

33.6%

60.3%

Trump
by 26.7%

2020-07-11
2020-07-16

2020-07-22
2020-07-23 19:22

2020-07-10 00:00

Garin-Hart-Yang

41.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2020-07-07
2020-07-12

2020-07-14
2020-07-17 18:04

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

38.0%

60.0%

Trump
by 22.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-06 21:20

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

39.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 20.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 16:28

2020-06-14 12:00

Civiqs

37.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 20.0%

2020-06-13
2020-06-15

2020-06-18
2020-06-19 11:30

2020-06-10 00:00

Garin-Hart-Yang

39.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2020-06-07
2020-06-12

2020-07-14
2020-07-17 18:03

2020-05-23 00:00

RMG

36.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 17.0%

2020-05-21
2020-05-24

2020-06-01
2020-06-10 03:37

2020-05-15 00:00

PPP

39.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2020-05-14
2020-05-15

2020-05-20
2020-05-20 17:57

2020-05-10 00:00

Garin-Hart-Yang

36.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 21.0%

2020-05-07
2020-05-12

2020-07-14
2020-07-17 17:58

2020-04-10 00:00

Bluegrass Data

34.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 21.0%

2020-04-07
2020-04-12

2020-08-05
2020-08-06 22:24

2019-07-30 12:00

AARP

41.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2019-07-29
2019-07-31

2019-08-15
2019-09-17 08:21

2019-06-12 00:00

Gravis

37.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 20.0%

2019-06-11
2019-06-12

2019-06-14
2019-06-19 21:19

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

32.7%

62.5%

REP
by 29.8%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 06:57

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

37.8%

60.5%

REP
by 22.7%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:30

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

41.2%

57.4%

REP
by 16.2%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-25 05:58

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

39.7%

59.6%

REP
by 19.9%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:01

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

41.4%

56.5%

REP
by 15.1%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 09:35

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

45.8%

44.9%

DEM
by 1.0%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 09:08

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

44.6%

41.3%

DEM
by 3.2%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:36

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

43.9%

55.5%

REP
by 11.6%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 09:21

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

39.4%

60.0%

REP
by 20.7%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:43

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

47.6%

49.1%

REP
by 1.5%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:41

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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