2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Arkansas [6 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-15 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-10-28 17:04 UTC

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-15 12:00

University of Arkansas

32.0%

65.0%

Trump
by 33.0%

2020-10-09
2020-10-21

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 17:04

2020-10-12 12:00

Hendrix College w/4P

33.5%

58.0%

Trump
by 24.5%

2020-10-11
2020-10-13

2020-10-19
2020-10-20 00:59

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

41.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-26 19:31

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

39.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 20.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-26 19:31

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

41.0%

56.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-26 19:31

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

40.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-26 19:31

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

42.0%

56.0%

Trump
by 14.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-26 19:31

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

40.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-26 19:31

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

41.0%

56.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-26 19:31

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

40.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-26 19:31

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

41.0%

56.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-26 19:31

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

40.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-26 19:31

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

39.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 20.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-26 19:31

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

40.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 17.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-26 19:31

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

39.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 20.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-26 19:31

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

40.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 17.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-26 19:31

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

39.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 19.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-26 19:31

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

41.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-26 19:31

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

39.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 20.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 18:52

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

40.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 17.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 05:50

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

40.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-22 20:30

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

41.0%

56.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-21 22:12

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

39.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 20.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 21:22

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

41.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 03:37

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

40.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 19.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-07 19:29

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

38.0%

62.0%

Trump
by 24.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-03 23:22

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

32.0%

67.0%

Trump
by 35.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-07 19:26

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

34.0%

65.0%

Trump
by 31.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 16:50

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

32.0%

66.0%

Trump
by 34.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-07 19:22

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

33.0%

65.0%

Trump
by 32.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 02:17

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

38.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 21.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-07 19:18

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

39.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 19.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 15:22

2020-06-10 00:00

Hendrix

45.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-06-09
2020-06-10

2020-06-14
2020-06-15 03:29

2020-02-23 12:00

OurProgress

36.1%

57.9%

Trump
by 21.8%

2020-02-21
2020-02-25

2020-02-27
2020-02-27 22:04

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

33.7%

60.6%

REP
by 26.9%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 04:47

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

36.9%

60.6%

REP
by 23.7%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-21 23:08

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

38.9%

58.7%

REP
by 19.9%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-22 10:39

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

44.6%

54.3%

REP
by 9.8%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-13 23:29

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

45.9%

51.3%

REP
by 5.5%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-05 07:12

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

53.7%

36.8%

DEM
by 16.9%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 08:14

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

53.2%

35.5%

DEM
by 17.7%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:07

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

42.2%

56.4%

REP
by 14.2%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 03:18

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

38.3%

60.5%

REP
by 22.2%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 06:18

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

47.5%

48.1%

REP
by 0.6%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:14

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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