2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Arkansas [6 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-27 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:55 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	38.0%	61.0%	Trump by 23.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:55
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	40.0%	58.0%	Trump by 18.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:55
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	38.0%	61.0%	Trump by 23.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 16:00
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	41.0%	58.0%	Trump by 17.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 16:00
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	39.0%	60.0%	Trump by 21.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 16:00
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	41.0%	57.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 16:00
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	38.0%	60.0%	Trump by 22.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-02 13:37
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	41.0%	58.0%	Trump by 17.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-02 13:37
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	39.0%	60.0%	Trump by 21.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-02 13:37
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	41.0%	57.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-02 13:37
2020-10-15 12:00	University of Arkansas	32.0%	65.0%	Trump by 33.0%	2020-10-09 2020-10-21	2020-10-28 2020-10-28 17:04
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	40.0%	58.0%	Trump by 18.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-02 13:37
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	38.0%	60.0%	Trump by 22.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-02 13:37
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	40.0%	58.0%	Trump by 18.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-31 18:18
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	60.0%	Trump by 21.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-31 18:18
2020-10-12 12:00	Hendrix College w/4P	33.5%	58.0%	Trump by 24.5%	2020-10-11 2020-10-13	2020-10-19 2020-10-20 00:59
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	57.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-31 18:18
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-31 18:18
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	57.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-31 18:18
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-31 18:18
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-31 18:18
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	57.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-31 18:18
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-26 19:31
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	57.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-26 19:31
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	40.0%	58.0%	Trump by 18.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-26 19:31
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	56.0%	Trump by 15.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-26 19:31
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	40.0%	58.0%	Trump by 18.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-26 19:31
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	42.0%	56.0%	Trump by 14.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-26 19:31
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	56.0%	Trump by 15.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-26 19:31
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	40.0%	58.0%	Trump by 18.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-26 19:31
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	56.0%	Trump by 15.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-26 19:31
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	40.0%	58.0%	Trump by 18.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-26 19:31
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-26 19:31
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	40.0%	57.0%	Trump by 17.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-26 19:31
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-26 19:31
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	40.0%	57.0%	Trump by 17.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-26 19:31
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	57.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-26 19:31
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	58.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-26 19:31
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 18:52
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	40.0%	57.0%	Trump by 17.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 05:50
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	40.0%	58.0%	Trump by 18.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-22 20:30
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	56.0%	Trump by 15.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-21 22:12
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 21:22
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	57.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 03:37
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	40.0%	59.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 19:29
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	38.0%	62.0%	Trump by 24.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-03 23:22
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	32.0%	67.0%	Trump by 35.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 19:26
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	34.0%	65.0%	Trump by 31.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 16:50
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	32.0%	66.0%	Trump by 34.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 19:22
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	33.0%	65.0%	Trump by 32.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 02:17

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	38.0%	59.0%	Trump by 21.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 19:18
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	39.0%	58.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-09-23 2020-09-24 15:22
2020-06-10 00:00	Hendrix	45.0%	47.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2020-06-09 2020-06-10	2020-06-14 2020-06-15 03:29
2020-02-23 12:00	OurProgress	36.1%	57.9%	Trump by 21.8%	2020-02-21 2020-02-25	2020-02-27 2020-02-27 22:04
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	33.7%	60.6%	REP by 26.9%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-18 04:47
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	36.9%	60.6%	REP by 23.7%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-21 23:08
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	38.9%	58.7%	REP by 19.9%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-22 10:39
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	44.6%	54.3%	REP by 9.8%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-13 23:29
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	45.9%	51.3%	REP by 5.5%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-05 07:12
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	53.7%	36.8%	DEM by 16.9%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 08:14
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	53.2%	35.5%	DEM by 17.7%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:07
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	42.2%	56.4%	REP by 14.2%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 03:18
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	38.3%	60.5%	REP by 22.2%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-21 06:18
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	47.5%	48.1%	REP by 0.6%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:14

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

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