2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - West Virginia [5 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-27 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 18:03 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-27 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

32.0%

67.0%

Trump
by 35.0%

2020-10-20
2020-11-02

2020-11-03
2020-11-03 18:03

2020-10-27 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

32.0%

67.0%

Trump
by 35.0%

2020-10-20
2020-11-02

2020-11-03
2020-11-03 18:03

2020-10-26 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

31.0%

67.0%

Trump
by 36.0%

2020-10-19
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 16:16

2020-10-26 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

32.0%

67.0%

Trump
by 35.0%

2020-10-19
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 16:16

2020-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

32.0%

67.0%

Trump
by 35.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-03 16:16

2020-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

33.0%

66.0%

Trump
by 33.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-03 16:16

2020-10-23 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

32.0%

66.0%

Trump
by 34.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-11-03 11:24

2020-10-23 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

32.0%

67.0%

Trump
by 35.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-11-03 11:24

2020-10-22 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

32.0%

67.0%

Trump
by 35.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-11-03 11:24

2020-10-22 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

32.0%

67.0%

Trump
by 35.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-11-03 11:24

2020-10-20 00:00

Triton

37.9%

58.0%

Trump
by 20.1%

2020-10-19
2020-10-20

2020-10-23
2020-10-23 21:55

2020-10-14 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

32.0%

66.0%

Trump
by 34.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-11-03 11:24

2020-10-14 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

32.0%

66.0%

Trump
by 34.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-11-03 11:24

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

33.0%

66.0%

Trump
by 33.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-31 19:01

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

33.0%

66.0%

Trump
by 33.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-31 19:01

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

33.0%

66.0%

Trump
by 33.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-31 19:01

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

33.0%

65.0%

Trump
by 32.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-31 19:01

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

33.0%

66.0%

Trump
by 33.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-31 19:01

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

33.0%

66.0%

Trump
by 33.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-31 19:01

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

33.0%

66.0%

Trump
by 33.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-31 19:01

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

33.0%

66.0%

Trump
by 33.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-31 19:01

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

33.0%

65.0%

Trump
by 32.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-26 21:35

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

33.0%

66.0%

Trump
by 33.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-26 21:35

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

32.0%

66.0%

Trump
by 34.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-26 21:35

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

32.0%

67.0%

Trump
by 35.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-26 21:35

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

32.0%

67.0%

Trump
by 35.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-26 21:35

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

32.0%

66.0%

Trump
by 34.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-26 21:35

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

32.0%

66.0%

Trump
by 34.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-26 21:35

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

32.0%

66.0%

Trump
by 34.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-26 21:35

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

33.0%

66.0%

Trump
by 33.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-26 21:35

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

34.0%

65.0%

Trump
by 31.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-26 21:35

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

34.0%

64.0%

Trump
by 30.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-26 21:35

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

34.0%

64.0%

Trump
by 30.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-26 21:35

2020-10-04 00:00

Research America w/4P

39.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 14.0%

2020-10-01
2020-10-06

2020-10-13
2020-10-13 19:13

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

35.0%

63.0%

Trump
by 28.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-26 21:35

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

35.0%

63.0%

Trump
by 28.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-26 21:35

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

34.0%

64.0%

Trump
by 30.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-26 21:35

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

34.0%

63.0%

Trump
by 29.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-26 21:35

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

34.0%

64.0%

Trump
by 30.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 19:05

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

34.0%

64.0%

Trump
by 30.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 06:01

2020-09-30 00:00

Triton Polling

38.0%

56.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-09-29
2020-09-30

2020-10-07
2020-10-08 06:27

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

34.0%

64.0%

Trump
by 30.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-22 20:42

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

34.0%

64.0%

Trump
by 30.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-21 22:25

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

34.0%

64.0%

Trump
by 30.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 21:40

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

34.0%

64.0%

Trump
by 30.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 09:04

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

36.0%

62.0%

Trump
by 26.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-08 19:47

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

36.0%

62.0%

Trump
by 26.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-03 17:22

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

32.0%

65.0%

Trump
by 33.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-08 19:43

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

31.0%

65.0%

Trump
by 34.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-26 18:24

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

32.0%

67.0%

Trump
by 35.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-08 19:40

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

32.0%

66.0%

Trump
by 34.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 15:44

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

27.0%

72.0%

Trump
by 45.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-08 19:37

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

28.0%

70.0%

Trump
by 42.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 19:40

2020-01-08 12:00

WPA Intelligence

31.0%

66.0%

Trump
by 35.0%

2020-01-07
2020-01-09

2020-01-13
2020-01-15 23:56

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

26.4%

68.5%

REP
by 42.1%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-24 18:31

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

35.5%

62.3%

REP
by 26.8%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:18

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

42.6%

55.7%

REP
by 13.1%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-06 03:20

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

43.2%

56.1%

REP
by 12.9%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:18

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

45.6%

51.9%

REP
by 6.3%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 11:14

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

51.5%

36.8%

DEM
by 14.8%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-18 15:52

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

48.4%

35.4%

DEM
by 13.0%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 07:08

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

52.2%

47.5%

DEM
by 4.7%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 20:11

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

44.6%

55.1%

REP
by 10.5%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 07:44

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

49.8%

45.3%

DEM
by 4.5%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:33

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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