2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Kansas [6 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-20 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-10-29 04:49 UTC

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-20 00:00

PPP

42.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2020-10-19
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-21 19:04

2020-10-19 12:00

Siena w/3P

41.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-10-18
2020-10-20

2020-10-22
2020-10-22 18:36

2020-10-19 12:00

co/efficient w/3P

39.0%

56.0%

Trump
by 17.0%

2020-10-18
2020-10-20

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 18:04

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

47.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-29 04:49

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-29 04:49

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-29 04:49

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-29 04:49

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-29 04:49

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-29 04:49

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-29 04:49

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-29 04:49

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-25 22:40

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-25 22:40

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-25 22:40

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-25 22:40

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-25 22:40

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-25 22:40

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

48.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-25 22:40

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-25 22:40

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

48.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-25 22:40

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-25 22:40

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-25 22:40

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

48.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-25 22:40

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

47.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-25 22:40

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

46.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-25 22:40

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

46.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-25 22:40

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

46.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-25 22:40

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

45.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 18:39

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

45.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 05:40

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

44.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-22 20:20

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

45.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-21 22:02

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

44.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 20:55

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

45.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 06:05

2020-09-28 00:00

Civiqs

42.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-09-26
2020-09-29

2020-09-30
2020-09-30 21:24

2020-09-26 12:00

FHSU RV [3]

37.6%

52.0%

Trump
by 14.4%

2020-09-21
2020-10-01

2020-10-27
2020-10-27 20:30

2020-09-26 12:00

FHSU wo/NV [3]

38.9%

50.6%

Trump
by 11.7%

2020-09-21
2020-10-01

2020-10-27
2020-10-27 20:27

2020-09-26 12:00

FHSU All [3]

35.7%

46.2%

Trump
by 10.5%

2020-09-21
2020-10-01

2020-10-27
2020-10-27 20:21

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-09-17 00:00

Data for Progress w/Lean [2]

45.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-14
2020-09-19

2020-09-23
2020-09-26 23:13

2020-09-17 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P [2]

42.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-09-14
2020-09-19

2020-09-23
2020-09-26 23:11

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

48.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 04:41

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

47.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-03 22:43

2020-09-16 00:00

co/efficient

41.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2020-09-15
2020-09-16

2020-09-30
2020-09-30 15:28

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

45.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 04:39

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

45.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 18:05

2020-08-07 12:00

SurveyUSA

41.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-08-05
2020-08-09

2020-08-12
2020-08-12 19:50

2020-08-06 00:00

PPP

43.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-08-05
2020-08-06

2020-08-07
2020-08-07 20:48

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 04:36

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

49.0%

49.0%

TIED

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 06:13

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

45.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 04:31

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

46.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 16:25

2020-05-31 12:00

Civiqs

40.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2020-05-30
2020-06-01

2020-06-02
2020-06-03 15:25

2020-04-19 00:00

OurProgress

41.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-04-15
2020-04-22

2020-04-29
2020-04-29 19:30

2020-03-11 00:00

PPP

40.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2020-03-10
2020-03-11

2020-03-12
2020-03-12 16:38

2020-02-08 00:00

OurProgress

37.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-02-05
2020-02-10

2020-02-17
2020-02-17 18:39

2020-02-03 00:00

DFM Research

43.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-01-30
2020-02-06

2020-02-10
2020-02-11 00:24

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

36.1%

56.7%

REP
by 20.6%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 06:54

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

38.0%

59.7%

REP
by 21.7%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:29

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

41.7%

56.6%

REP
by 15.0%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-25 05:56

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

36.6%

62.0%

REP
by 25.4%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 05:59

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

37.2%

58.0%

REP
by 20.8%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 09:31

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

36.1%

54.3%

REP
by 18.2%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 09:07

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

33.7%

38.9%

REP
by 5.1%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:34

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

42.6%

55.8%

REP
by 13.2%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 09:14

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

32.6%

66.3%

REP
by 33.7%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:41

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

33.3%

57.9%

REP
by 24.6%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:39

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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