2020 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Kansas [6 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-30 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:50 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-10-30 00:00	Data for Progress w/4P	41.0%	55.0%	Trump by 14.0%	2020-10-27 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 05:15
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:50
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	44.0%	55.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:50
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 15:38
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 15:38
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 15:38
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 15:38
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-02 13:18
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-02 13:18
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	43.0%	55.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-02 13:18
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-02 13:18
2020-10-20 00:00	PPP	42.0%	54.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-10-19 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-21 19:04
2020-10-19 12:00	Siena w/3P	41.0%	48.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-10-18 2020-10-20	2020-10-22 2020-10-22 18:36
2020-10-19 12:00	co/efficient w/3P	39.0%	56.0%	Trump by 17.0%	2020-10-18 2020-10-20	2020-10-20 2020-10-21 18:04
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	47.0%	51.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-02 13:18
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	47.0%	51.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-02 13:18
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	47.0%	50.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-29 04:49
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	47.0%	51.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-29 04:49
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	48.0%	50.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-29 04:49
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	47.0%	51.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-29 04:49
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	47.0%	52.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-29 04:49
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	47.0%	51.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-29 04:49
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	47.0%	52.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-29 04:49
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	47.0%	51.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-29 04:49
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	47.0%	51.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-25 22:40
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	47.0%	51.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-25 22:40
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	47.0%	51.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-25 22:40
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	47.0%	51.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-25 22:40
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	47.0%	51.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-25 22:40
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	47.0%	51.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-25 22:40
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	48.0%	50.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-25 22:40
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	48.0%	51.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-25 22:40
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	48.0%	51.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-25 22:40
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	47.0%	51.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-25 22:40
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	47.0%	52.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-25 22:40
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	48.0%	51.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-25 22:40
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	47.0%	52.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-25 22:40
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	46.0%	53.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-25 22:40
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	46.0%	53.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-25 22:40
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	46.0%	53.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-25 22:40
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	54.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 18:39
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	54.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 05:40
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	55.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-22 20:20
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	54.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-21 22:02
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	55.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 20:55
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	54.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 06:05
2020-09-28 00:00	Civiqs	42.0%	52.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-09-26 2020-09-29	2020-09-30 2020-09-30 21:24

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-09-26 12:00	FHSU RV [3]	37.6%	52.0%	Trump by 14.4%	2020-09-21 2020-10-01	2020-10-27 2020-10-27 20:30
2020-09-26 12:00	FHSU wo/NV [3]	38.9%	50.6%	Trump by 11.7%	2020-09-21 2020-10-01	2020-10-27 2020-10-27 20:27
2020-09-26 12:00	FHSU All [3]	35.7%	46.2%	Trump by 10.5%	2020-09-21 2020-10-01	2020-10-27 2020-10-27 20:21
2020-09-17 00:00	Data for Progress w/Lean [2]	45.0%	49.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2020-09-14 2020-09-19	2020-09-23 2020-09-26 23:13
2020-09-17 00:00	Data for Progress w/4P [2]	42.0%	48.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2020-09-14 2020-09-19	2020-09-23 2020-09-26 23:11
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	48.0%	51.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-05 04:41
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	47.0%	52.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-03 22:43
2020-09-16 00:00	co/efficient	41.0%	53.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-09-15 2020-09-16	2020-09-30 2020-09-30 15:28
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	45.0%	54.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-05 04:39
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 18:05
2020-08-07 12:00	SurveyUSA	41.0%	48.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-08-05 2020-08-09	2020-08-12 2020-08-12 19:50
2020-08-06 00:00	PPP	43.0%	50.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-08-05 2020-08-06	2020-08-07 2020-08-07 20:48
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	47.0%	51.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-05 04:36
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	49.0%	49.0%	TIED	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 06:13
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-05 04:31
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	46.0%	51.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-09-23 2020-09-24 16:25
2020-05-31 12:00	Civiqs	40.0%	52.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-05-30 2020-06-01	2020-06-02 2020-06-03 15:25
2020-04-19 00:00	OurProgress	41.0%	51.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-04-15 2020-04-22	2020-04-29 2020-04-29 19:30
2020-03-11 00:00	PPP	40.0%	52.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-03-10 2020-03-11	2020-03-12 2020-03-12 16:38
2020-02-08 00:00	OurProgress	37.0%	55.0%	Trump by 18.0%	2020-02-05 2020-02-10	2020-02-17 2020-02-17 18:39
2020-02-03 00:00	DFM Research	43.0%	51.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-01-30 2020-02-06	2020-02-10 2020-02-11 00:24
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	36.1%	56.7%	REP by 20.6%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-18 06:54
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	38.0%	59.7%	REP by 21.7%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:29
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	41.7%	56.6%	REP by 15.0%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-25 05:56
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	36.6%	62.0%	REP by 25.4%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 05:59
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	37.2%	58.0%	REP by 20.8%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 09:31
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	36.1%	54.3%	REP by 18.2%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 09:07
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	33.7%	38.9%	REP by 5.1%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:34
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	42.6%	55.8%	REP by 13.2%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 09:14
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	32.6%	66.3%	REP by 33.7%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:41
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	33.3%	57.9%	REP by 24.6%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:39

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

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