2020 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - New York [29 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-11-01 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 18:37 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-11-01 00:00	Research Co	61.0%	33.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-10-31 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-02 22:12
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	62.0%	34.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 18:37
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	63.0%	35.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 18:37
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	63.0%	35.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 16:44
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	63.0%	34.0%	Biden by 29.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 16:44
2020-10-25 00:00	Swayable w/4P	65.4%	32.8%	Biden by 32.6%	2020-10-23 2020-10-26	2020-10-28 2020-10-30 21:04
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	63.0%	34.0%	Biden by 29.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 16:44
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	63.0%	35.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 16:44
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	62.0%	34.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-03 11:57
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	63.0%	35.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-03 11:57
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	62.0%	34.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-03 11:57
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	62.0%	35.0%	Biden by 27.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-03 11:57
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	63.0%	34.0%	Biden by 29.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-03 11:57
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	63.0%	34.0%	Biden by 29.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-03 11:57
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	64.0%	34.0%	Biden by 30.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-31 20:13
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	63.0%	33.0%	Biden by 30.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-31 20:13
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	64.0%	33.0%	Biden by 31.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-31 20:13
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	64.0%	33.0%	Biden by 31.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-31 20:13
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	64.0%	33.0%	Biden by 31.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-31 20:13
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	64.0%	33.0%	Biden by 31.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-31 20:13
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	65.0%	33.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-31 20:13
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	64.0%	32.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-31 20:13
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	65.0%	33.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-28 06:06
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	65.0%	32.0%	Biden by 33.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-28 06:06
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	65.0%	32.0%	Biden by 33.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-28 06:06
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	65.0%	32.0%	Biden by 33.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-28 06:06
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	65.0%	33.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-28 06:06
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	65.0%	32.0%	Biden by 33.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-28 06:06
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	65.0%	33.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-28 06:06
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	64.0%	32.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-28 06:06
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	65.0%	33.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-28 06:06
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	65.0%	32.0%	Biden by 33.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-28 06:06
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	65.0%	33.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-28 06:06
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	65.0%	32.0%	Biden by 33.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-28 06:06
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	65.0%	32.0%	Biden by 33.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-28 06:06
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	65.0%	33.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-28 06:06
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	65.0%	33.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-28 06:06
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	65.0%	32.0%	Biden by 33.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-28 06:06
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	64.0%	33.0%	Biden by 31.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 19:29
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	64.0%	32.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 06:18
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	65.0%	33.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-22 21:06
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	64.0%	32.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-21 22:49
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	64.0%	33.0%	Biden by 31.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 22:00
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	64.0%	32.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 07:40
2020-09-28 12:00	Siena w/5P	61.0%	29.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-09-27 2020-09-29	2020-10-02 2020-10-02 16:49
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	64.0%	33.0%	Biden by 31.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 15:15
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	64.0%	34.0%	Biden by 30.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-03 21:26
2020-08-22 00:00	PPP	63.0%	32.0%	Biden by 31.0%	2020-08-21 2020-08-22	2020-08-25 2020-08-25 13:53

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	64.0%	34.0%	Biden by 30.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 15:12
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	63.0%	33.0%	Biden by 30.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-26 17:30
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	63.0%	34.0%	Biden by 29.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 15:10
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	63.0%	33.0%	Biden by 30.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 07:02
2020-06-24 12:00	Siena	57.0%	32.0%	Biden by 25.0%	2020-06-23 2020-06-25	2020-06-30 2020-06-30 17:32
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	65.0%	33.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 15:08
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	65.0%	32.0%	Biden by 33.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-09-23 2020-09-24 19:08
2020-05-19 12:00	Siena	57.0%	32.0%	Biden by 25.0%	2020-05-17 2020-05-21	2020-05-27 2020-05-28 02:10
2020-05-02 12:00	Quinnipiac	55.0%	32.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-04-30 2020-05-04	2020-05-06 2020-05-06 19:52
2020-04-21 12:00	Siena	65.0%	29.0%	Biden by 36.0%	2020-04-19 2020-04-23	2020-04-27 2020-04-27 17:04
2020-03-24 12:00	Siena	58.0%	33.0%	Biden by 25.0%	2020-03-22 2020-03-26	2020-03-30 2020-03-30 17:02
2020-02-18 12:00	Siena	55.0%	36.0%	Biden by 19.0%	2020-02-16 2020-02-20	2020-02-24 2020-02-24 15:46
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	59.0%	36.5%	DEM by 22.5%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-20 04:06
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	63.4%	35.2%	DEM by 28.2%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:02
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	62.9%	36.0%	DEM by 26.9%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-30 03:34
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	58.4%	40.1%	DEM by 18.3%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:56
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	60.2%	35.2%	DEM by 25.0%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:35
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	59.5%	30.6%	DEM by 28.9%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 17:28
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	49.7%	33.9%	DEM by 15.9%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:26
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	51.6%	47.5%	DEM by 4.1%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:29
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	45.8%	53.8%	REP by 8.0%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-24 06:43
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	44.0%	46.7%	REP by 2.7%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 18:59

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

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