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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Maine (All) [2 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-31 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 18:45 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-31 12:00

Change Research w/4P

52.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-10-29
2020-11-02

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 09:45

2020-10-30 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

54.3%

42.9%

Biden
by 11.4%

2020-10-29
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-01 22:41

2020-10-30 12:00

Emerson [2]

53.9%

42.6%

Biden
by 11.3%

2020-10-29
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-01 22:38

2020-10-27 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

57.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 17.0%

2020-10-20
2020-11-02

2020-11-03
2020-11-03 18:45

2020-10-27 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-10-20
2020-11-02

2020-11-03
2020-11-03 18:45

2020-10-26 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

56.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 15.0%

2020-10-19
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 17:02

2020-10-26 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-10-19
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 17:02

2020-10-25 12:00

SurveyUSA w/5P

53.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-10-23
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-29 19:55

2020-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-03 17:02

2020-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

56.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 15.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-03 17:02

2020-10-23 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-11-03 12:28

2020-10-23 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-11-03 12:28

2020-10-23 12:00

Colby College

51.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-10-21
2020-10-25

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 17:22

2020-10-22 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-11-03 12:28

2020-10-22 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-11-03 12:28

2020-10-14 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-11-03 12:28

2020-10-14 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-11-03 12:28

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-31 20:48

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-31 20:48

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-31 20:48

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-31 20:48

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-31 20:48

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-31 20:48

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

57.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-31 20:48

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-31 20:48

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-28 07:43

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-28 07:43

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-28 07:43

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-28 07:43

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-28 07:43

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-28 07:43

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-28 07:43

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-28 07:43

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-28 07:43

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-28 07:43

2020-10-04 12:00

Pan Atlantic Research

50.3%

39.7%

Biden
by 10.6%

2020-10-02
2020-10-06

2020-10-15
2020-10-15 16:28

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-28 07:43

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-28 07:43

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-28 07:43

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-28 07:43

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

57.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-28 07:43

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

57.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 15.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-28 07:43

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

57.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 15.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 19:44

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

57.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 06:31

2020-09-30 00:00

Critical Insights LV w/4P [2]

51.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-04

2020-10-06
2020-10-07 06:36

2020-09-30 00:00

Critical Insights RV w/4P [2]

50.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-04

2020-10-06
2020-10-07 06:32

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-22 21:30

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-21 23:05

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 22:15

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 06:36

2020-09-26 00:00

Data for Progress [2]

55.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-23
2020-09-28

2020-10-01
2020-10-01 16:00

2020-09-26 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P [2]

53.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-23
2020-09-28

2020-10-01
2020-10-01 15:58

2020-09-20 12:00

Colby College

50.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-09-17
2020-09-23

2020-09-24
2020-09-27 17:02

2020-09-19 00:00

Suffolk w/5P

51.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-09-17
2020-09-20

2020-09-21
2020-09-21 20:14

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

58.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 18.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-06 17:29

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

60.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 22.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-03 22:25

2020-09-14 00:00

Siena w/4P

55.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 17.0%

2020-09-11
2020-09-16

2020-09-18
2020-09-18 22:56

2020-09-12 12:00

Quinnipiac

59.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 21.0%

2020-09-10
2020-09-14

2020-09-16
2020-09-16 18:53

2020-09-02 12:00

Fabrizio Ward Hart

54.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-08-30
2020-09-05

2020-09-10
2020-09-10 15:55

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

61.0%

37.0%

Biden
by 24.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-06 17:27

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

60.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 21.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 18:11

2020-08-03 12:00

Critical Insights LV [2]

45.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-07-28
2020-08-09

2020-08-11
2020-08-12 17:33

2020-08-03 12:00

Critical Insights RV [2]

44.0%

36.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-07-28
2020-08-09

2020-08-11
2020-08-11 18:13

2020-08-01 12:00

Quinnipiac

52.0%

37.0%

Biden
by 15.0%

2020-07-30
2020-08-03

2020-08-06
2020-08-06 23:14

2020-07-30 12:00

RMG

50.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-07-27
2020-08-02

2020-08-10
2020-08-10 18:56

2020-07-29 00:00

Data for Progress [2]

53.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-07-24
2020-08-02

2020-08-06
2020-08-06 23:02

2020-07-29 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P [2]

49.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-07-24
2020-08-02

2020-08-06
2020-08-06 22:59

2020-07-24 00:00

PPP

53.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-07-23
2020-07-24

2020-07-28
2020-07-28 19:18

2020-07-18 12:00

Colby College

50.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-07-16
2020-07-20

2020-07-28
2020-07-28 19:55

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

57.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-06 17:23

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 06:22

2020-07-03 00:00

PPP

53.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-07-02
2020-07-03

2020-07-06
2020-07-06 17:51

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

51.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-06 17:20

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 16:34

2020-03-03 00:00

PPP

52.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-03-02
2020-03-03

2020-03-05
2020-03-05 16:04

2019-10-12 12:00

PPP

54.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2019-10-11
2019-10-13

2019-10-15
2019-10-15 20:31

2019-07-30 12:00

AARP

50.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2019-07-29
2019-07-31

2019-08-15
2019-09-17 08:24

2019-06-24 12:00

Gravis

54.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2019-06-24
2019-06-24

2019-06-28
2019-06-28 17:52

2019-03-22 00:00

Trump Internal (NBC)

53.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 15.0%

2019-03-15
2019-03-28

2019-06-16
2019-06-16 18:06

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

47.8%

44.9%

DEM
by 3.0%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-19 11:10

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

56.3%

41.0%

DEM
by 15.3%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:32

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

57.7%

40.4%

DEM
by 17.3%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-25 06:00

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

53.6%

44.6%

DEM
by 9.0%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:05

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

49.1%

44.0%

DEM
by 5.1%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 09:38

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

51.6%

30.8%

DEM
by 20.9%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 09:10

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

38.8%

30.4%

DEM
by 8.4%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:40

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

43.9%

55.3%

REP
by 11.5%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 10:05

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

38.8%

60.8%

REP
by 22.1%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:47

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

42.3%

45.6%

REP
by 3.4%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:45

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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