2020 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - Maine (All) [2 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-31 12:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 18:45 UTC
Leaders: Biden vs Trump Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Warren vs Trump Sanders vs Trump Buttigieg vs Trump Harris vs Trump Bloomberg vs Trump || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-10-31 12:00
Change Research w/4P
52.0%
40.0%
Biden by 12.0%
2020-10-29 2020-11-02
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 09:45
2020-10-30 12:00
Emerson w/Lean [2]
54.3%
42.9%
Biden by 11.4%
2020-10-29 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-01 22:41
2020-10-30 12:00
Emerson [2]
53.9%
42.6%
Biden by 11.3%
2020-10-29 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-01 22:38
2020-10-27 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
57.0%
40.0%
Biden by 17.0%
2020-10-20 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 2020-11-03 18:45
2020-10-27 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-10-20 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 2020-11-03 18:45
2020-10-26 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
56.0%
41.0%
Biden by 15.0%
2020-10-19 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 17:02
2020-10-26 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-10-19 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 17:02
2020-10-25 12:00
SurveyUSA w/5P
53.0%
40.0%
Biden by 13.0%
2020-10-23 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-29 19:55
2020-10-24 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-10-17 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-03 17:02
2020-10-24 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
56.0%
41.0%
Biden by 15.0%
2020-10-17 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-03 17:02
2020-10-23 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
55.0%
43.0%
Biden by 12.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 2020-11-03 12:28
2020-10-23 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 2020-11-03 12:28
2020-10-23 12:00
Colby College
51.0%
38.0%
Biden by 13.0%
2020-10-21 2020-10-25
2020-10-28 2020-10-28 17:22
2020-10-22 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
55.0%
43.0%
Biden by 12.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-29
2020-10-30 2020-11-03 12:28
2020-10-22 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-29
2020-10-30 2020-11-03 12:28
2020-10-14 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
56.0%
43.0%
Biden by 13.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-11-03 12:28
2020-10-14 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-11-03 12:28
2020-10-13 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
56.0%
43.0%
Biden by 13.0%
2020-09-29 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-31 20:48
2020-10-13 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-09-29 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-31 20:48
2020-10-11 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-09-27 2020-10-25
2020-10-26 2020-10-31 20:48
2020-10-11 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-09-27 2020-10-25
2020-10-26 2020-10-31 20:48
2020-10-10 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-24
2020-10-25 2020-10-31 20:48
2020-10-10 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-24
2020-10-25 2020-10-31 20:48
2020-10-10 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
57.0%
41.0%
Biden by 16.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 2020-10-31 20:48
2020-10-10 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 2020-10-31 20:48
2020-10-09 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
56.0%
43.0%
Biden by 13.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-22
2020-10-23 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-09 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-22
2020-10-23 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-08 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
56.0%
43.0%
Biden by 13.0%
2020-09-24 2020-10-21
2020-10-22 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-08 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-09-24 2020-10-21
2020-10-22 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-07 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
56.0%
43.0%
Biden by 13.0%
2020-09-23 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-07 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
56.0%
43.0%
Biden by 13.0%
2020-09-23 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-05 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
56.0%
43.0%
Biden by 13.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-19
2020-10-20 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-05 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
56.0%
43.0%
Biden by 13.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-19
2020-10-20 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-05 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
56.0%
43.0%
Biden by 13.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-18
2020-10-19 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-05 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
56.0%
43.0%
Biden by 13.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-18
2020-10-19 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-04 12:00
Pan Atlantic Research
50.3%
39.7%
Biden by 10.6%
2020-10-02 2020-10-06
2020-10-15 2020-10-15 16:28
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-10-04 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
56.0%
43.0%
Biden by 13.0%
2020-09-20 2020-10-17
2020-10-18 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-04 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-09-20 2020-10-17
2020-10-18 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-02 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-16
2020-10-17 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-02 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-16
2020-10-17 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-02 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
57.0%
41.0%
Biden by 16.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-15
2020-10-16 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-02 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
57.0%
42.0%
Biden by 15.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-15
2020-10-16 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-01 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
57.0%
42.0%
Biden by 15.0%
2020-09-17 2020-10-14
2020-10-15 2020-10-23 19:44
2020-10-01 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
57.0%
41.0%
Biden by 16.0%
2020-09-17 2020-10-14
2020-10-15 2020-10-23 06:31
2020-09-30 00:00
Critical Insights LV w/4P [2]
51.0%
40.0%
Biden by 11.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-04
2020-10-06 2020-10-07 06:36
2020-09-30 00:00
Critical Insights RV w/4P [2]
50.0%
39.0%
Biden by 11.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-04
2020-10-06 2020-10-07 06:32
2020-09-29 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-22 21:30
2020-09-29 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-21 23:05
2020-09-29 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
56.0%
43.0%
Biden by 13.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-12
2020-10-13 2020-10-18 22:15
2020-09-29 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
56.0%
43.0%
Biden by 13.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-12
2020-10-13 2020-10-18 06:36
2020-09-26 00:00
Data for Progress [2]
55.0%
41.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-09-23 2020-09-28
2020-10-01 2020-10-01 16:00
2020-09-26 00:00
Data for Progress w/4P [2]
53.0%
39.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-09-23 2020-09-28
2020-10-01 2020-10-01 15:58
2020-09-20 12:00
Colby College
50.0%
39.0%
Biden by 11.0%
2020-09-17 2020-09-23
2020-09-24 2020-09-27 17:02
2020-09-19 00:00
Suffolk w/5P
51.0%
39.0%
Biden by 12.0%
2020-09-17 2020-09-20
2020-09-21 2020-09-21 20:14
2020-09-16 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
58.0%
40.0%
Biden by 18.0%
2020-09-01 2020-09-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-06 17:29
2020-09-16 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
60.0%
38.0%
Biden by 22.0%
2020-09-01 2020-09-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-03 22:25
2020-09-14 00:00
Siena w/4P
55.0%
38.0%
Biden by 17.0%
2020-09-11 2020-09-16
2020-09-18 2020-09-18 22:56
2020-09-12 12:00
Quinnipiac
59.0%
38.0%
Biden by 21.0%
2020-09-10 2020-09-14
2020-09-16 2020-09-16 18:53
2020-09-02 12:00
Fabrizio Ward Hart
54.0%
40.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-08-30 2020-09-05
2020-09-10 2020-09-10 15:55
2020-08-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
61.0%
37.0%
Biden by 24.0%
2020-08-01 2020-08-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-06 17:27
2020-08-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
60.0%
39.0%
Biden by 21.0%
2020-08-01 2020-08-31
2020-09-23 2020-09-25 18:11
2020-08-03 12:00
Critical Insights LV [2]
45.0%
38.0%
Biden by 7.0%
2020-07-28 2020-08-09
2020-08-11 2020-08-12 17:33
2020-08-03 12:00
Critical Insights RV [2]
44.0%
36.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2020-07-28 2020-08-09
2020-08-11 2020-08-11 18:13
2020-08-01 12:00
Quinnipiac
52.0%
37.0%
Biden by 15.0%
2020-07-30 2020-08-03
2020-08-06 2020-08-06 23:14
2020-07-30 12:00
RMG
50.0%
39.0%
Biden by 11.0%
2020-07-27 2020-08-02
2020-08-10 2020-08-10 18:56
2020-07-29 00:00
Data for Progress [2]
53.0%
43.0%
Biden by 10.0%
2020-07-24 2020-08-02
2020-08-06 2020-08-06 23:02
2020-07-29 00:00
Data for Progress w/4P [2]
49.0%
42.0%
Biden by 7.0%
2020-07-24 2020-08-02
2020-08-06 2020-08-06 22:59
2020-07-24 00:00
PPP
53.0%
42.0%
Biden by 11.0%
2020-07-23 2020-07-24
2020-07-28 2020-07-28 19:18
2020-07-18 12:00
Colby College
50.0%
38.0%
Biden by 12.0%
2020-07-16 2020-07-20
2020-07-28 2020-07-28 19:55
2020-07-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
57.0%
41.0%
Biden by 16.0%
2020-07-01 2020-07-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-06 17:23
2020-07-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
56.0%
43.0%
Biden by 13.0%
2020-07-01 2020-07-31
2020-09-23 2020-09-25 06:22
2020-07-03 00:00
PPP
53.0%
42.0%
Biden by 11.0%
2020-07-02 2020-07-03
2020-07-06 2020-07-06 17:51
2020-06-19 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
51.0%
46.0%
Biden by 5.0%
2020-06-08 2020-06-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-06 17:20
2020-06-19 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
49.0%
48.0%
Biden by 1.0%
2020-06-08 2020-06-30
2020-09-23 2020-09-24 16:34
2020-03-03 00:00
PPP
52.0%
42.0%
Biden by 10.0%
2020-03-02 2020-03-03
2020-03-05 2020-03-05 16:04
2019-10-12 12:00
PPP
54.0%
42.0%
Biden by 12.0%
2019-10-11 2019-10-13
2019-10-15 2019-10-15 20:31
2019-07-30 12:00
AARP
50.0%
44.0%
Biden by 6.0%
2019-07-29 2019-07-31
2019-08-15 2019-09-17 08:24
2019-06-24 12:00
Gravis
54.0%
46.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2019-06-24 2019-06-24
2019-06-28 2019-06-28 17:52
2019-03-22 00:00
Trump Internal (NBC)
53.0%
38.0%
Biden by 15.0%
2019-03-15 2019-03-28
2019-06-16 2019-06-16 18:06
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
47.8%
44.9%
DEM by 3.0%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-19 11:10
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
56.3%
41.0%
DEM by 15.3%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:32
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
57.7%
40.4%
DEM by 17.3%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-09-25 06:00
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
53.6%
44.6%
DEM by 9.0%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:05
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
49.1%
44.0%
DEM by 5.1%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-10 09:38
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
51.6%
30.8%
DEM by 20.9%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-16 09:10
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
38.8%
30.4%
DEM by 8.4%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:40
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
43.9%
55.3%
REP by 11.5%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 10:05
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
38.8%
60.8%
REP by 22.1%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:47
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
42.3%
45.6%
REP by 3.4%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:45
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin ".
Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here .
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