2020 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Maine (All) [2 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-31 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 18:45 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-10-31 12:00	Change Research w/4P	52.0%	40.0%	Biden by 12.0%	2020-10-29 2020-11-02	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 09:45
2020-10-30 12:00	Emerson w/Lean [2]	54.3%	42.9%	Biden by 11.4%	2020-10-29 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-01 22:41
2020-10-30 12:00	Emerson [2]	53.9%	42.6%	Biden by 11.3%	2020-10-29 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-01 22:38
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	57.0%	40.0%	Biden by 17.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 18:45
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	56.0%	42.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 18:45
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	56.0%	41.0%	Biden by 15.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 17:02
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	56.0%	42.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 17:02
2020-10-25 12:00	SurveyUSA w/5P	53.0%	40.0%	Biden by 13.0%	2020-10-23 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-29 19:55
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	56.0%	42.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 17:02
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	56.0%	41.0%	Biden by 15.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 17:02
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	55.0%	43.0%	Biden by 12.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-03 12:28
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	56.0%	42.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-03 12:28
2020-10-23 12:00	Colby College	51.0%	38.0%	Biden by 13.0%	2020-10-21 2020-10-25	2020-10-28 2020-10-28 17:22
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	55.0%	43.0%	Biden by 12.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-03 12:28
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	56.0%	42.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-03 12:28
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	56.0%	43.0%	Biden by 13.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-03 12:28
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	56.0%	42.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-03 12:28
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	56.0%	43.0%	Biden by 13.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-31 20:48
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	56.0%	42.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-31 20:48
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	56.0%	42.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-31 20:48
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	56.0%	42.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-31 20:48
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	56.0%	42.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-31 20:48
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	56.0%	42.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-31 20:48
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	57.0%	41.0%	Biden by 16.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-31 20:48
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	56.0%	42.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-31 20:48
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	56.0%	43.0%	Biden by 13.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	56.0%	42.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	56.0%	43.0%	Biden by 13.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	56.0%	42.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	56.0%	43.0%	Biden by 13.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	56.0%	43.0%	Biden by 13.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	56.0%	43.0%	Biden by 13.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	56.0%	43.0%	Biden by 13.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	56.0%	43.0%	Biden by 13.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	56.0%	43.0%	Biden by 13.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-04 12:00	Pan Atlantic Research	50.3%	39.7%	Biden by 10.6%	2020-10-02 2020-10-06	2020-10-15 2020-10-15 16:28

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	56.0%	43.0%	Biden by 13.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	56.0%	42.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	56.0%	42.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	56.0%	42.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	57.0%	41.0%	Biden by 16.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	57.0%	42.0%	Biden by 15.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-28 07:43
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	57.0%	42.0%	Biden by 15.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 19:44
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	57.0%	41.0%	Biden by 16.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 06:31
2020-09-30 00:00	Critical Insights LV w/4P [2]	51.0%	40.0%	Biden by 11.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-04	2020-10-06 2020-10-07 06:36
2020-09-30 00:00	Critical Insights RV w/4P [2]	50.0%	39.0%	Biden by 11.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-04	2020-10-06 2020-10-07 06:32
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	56.0%	42.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-22 21:30
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	56.0%	42.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-21 23:05
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	56.0%	43.0%	Biden by 13.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 22:15
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	56.0%	43.0%	Biden by 13.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 06:36
2020-09-26 00:00	Data for Progress [2]	55.0%	41.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-09-23 2020-09-28	2020-10-01 2020-10-01 16:00
2020-09-26 00:00	Data for Progress w/4P [2]	53.0%	39.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-09-23 2020-09-28	2020-10-01 2020-10-01 15:58
2020-09-20 12:00	Colby College	50.0%	39.0%	Biden by 11.0%	2020-09-17 2020-09-23	2020-09-24 2020-09-27 17:02
2020-09-19 00:00	Suffolk w/5P	51.0%	39.0%	Biden by 12.0%	2020-09-17 2020-09-20	2020-09-21 2020-09-21 20:14
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	58.0%	40.0%	Biden by 18.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-06 17:29
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	60.0%	38.0%	Biden by 22.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-03 22:25
2020-09-14 00:00	Siena w/4P	55.0%	38.0%	Biden by 17.0%	2020-09-11 2020-09-16	2020-09-18 2020-09-18 22:56
2020-09-12 12:00	Quinnipiac	59.0%	38.0%	Biden by 21.0%	2020-09-10 2020-09-14	2020-09-16 2020-09-16 18:53
2020-09-02 12:00	Fabrizio Ward Hart	54.0%	40.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-08-30 2020-09-05	2020-09-10 2020-09-10 15:55
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	61.0%	37.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-06 17:27
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	60.0%	39.0%	Biden by 21.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 18:11
2020-08-03 12:00	Critical Insights LV [2]	45.0%	38.0%	Biden by 7.0%	2020-07-28 2020-08-09	2020-08-11 2020-08-12 17:33
2020-08-03 12:00	Critical Insights RV [2]	44.0%	36.0%	Biden by 8.0%	2020-07-28 2020-08-09	2020-08-11 2020-08-11 18:13
2020-08-01 12:00	Quinnipiac	52.0%	37.0%	Biden by 15.0%	2020-07-30 2020-08-03	2020-08-06 2020-08-06 23:14
2020-07-30 12:00	RMG	50.0%	39.0%	Biden by 11.0%	2020-07-27 2020-08-02	2020-08-10 2020-08-10 18:56
2020-07-29 00:00	Data for Progress [2]	53.0%	43.0%	Biden by 10.0%	2020-07-24 2020-08-02	2020-08-06 2020-08-06 23:02
2020-07-29 00:00	Data for Progress w/4P [2]	49.0%	42.0%	Biden by 7.0%	2020-07-24 2020-08-02	2020-08-06 2020-08-06 22:59
2020-07-24 00:00	PPP	53.0%	42.0%	Biden by 11.0%	2020-07-23 2020-07-24	2020-07-28 2020-07-28 19:18
2020-07-18 12:00	Colby College	50.0%	38.0%	Biden by 12.0%	2020-07-16 2020-07-20	2020-07-28 2020-07-28 19:55
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	57.0%	41.0%	Biden by 16.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-06 17:23
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	56.0%	43.0%	Biden by 13.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 06:22
2020-07-03 00:00	PPP	53.0%	42.0%	Biden by 11.0%	2020-07-02 2020-07-03	2020-07-06 2020-07-06 17:51
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	51.0%	46.0%	Biden by 5.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-06 17:20
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	49.0%	48.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-09-23 2020-09-24 16:34
2020-03-03 00:00	PPP	52.0%	42.0%	Biden by 10.0%	2020-03-02 2020-03-03	2020-03-05 2020-03-05 16:04
2019-10-12 12:00	PPP	54.0%	42.0%	Biden by 12.0%	2019-10-11 2019-10-13	2019-10-15 2019-10-15 20:31
2019-07-30 12:00	AARP	50.0%	44.0%	Biden by 6.0%	2019-07-29 2019-07-31	2019-08-15 2019-09-17 08:24
2019-06-24 12:00	Gravis	54.0%	46.0%	Biden by 8.0%	2019-06-24 2019-06-24	2019-06-28 2019-06-28 17:52
2019-03-22 00:00	Trump Internal (NBC)	53.0%	38.0%	Biden by 15.0%	2019-03-15 2019-03-28	2019-06-16 2019-06-16 18:06
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	47.8%	44.9%	DEM by 3.0%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-19 11:10
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	56.3%	41.0%	DEM by 15.3%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:32
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	57.7%	40.4%	DEM by 17.3%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-25 06:00
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	53.6%	44.6%	DEM by 9.0%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:05
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	49.1%	44.0%	DEM by 5.1%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 09:38
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	51.6%	30.8%	DEM by 20.9%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 09:10
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	38.8%	30.4%	DEM by 8.4%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:40
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	43.9%	55.3%	REP by 11.5%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 10:05
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	38.8%	60.8%	REP by 22.1%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:47
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	42.3%	45.6%	REP by 3.4%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:45

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

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