2020 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Rhode Island [4 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-27 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 18:46 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 18:46
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 18:46
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 17:04
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 17:04
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 17:04
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	63.0%	35.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 17:04
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	63.0%	34.0%	Biden by 29.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-03 12:31
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	63.0%	35.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-03 12:31
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	63.0%	35.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-03 12:31
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	63.0%	34.0%	Biden by 29.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-03 12:31
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	67.0%	32.0%	Biden by 35.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-03 12:31
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	67.0%	31.0%	Biden by 36.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-03 12:31
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	67.0%	31.0%	Biden by 36.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-31 20:53
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	67.0%	30.0%	Biden by 37.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-31 20:53
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	68.0%	30.0%	Biden by 38.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-31 20:53
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	68.0%	31.0%	Biden by 37.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-31 20:53
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	68.0%	30.0%	Biden by 38.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-31 20:53
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	68.0%	31.0%	Biden by 37.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-31 20:53
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	69.0%	30.0%	Biden by 39.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-31 20:53
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	68.0%	30.0%	Biden by 38.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-31 20:53
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	68.0%	31.0%	Biden by 37.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-28 07:57
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	68.0%	30.0%	Biden by 38.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-28 07:57
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	68.0%	31.0%	Biden by 37.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-28 07:57
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	68.0%	31.0%	Biden by 37.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-28 07:57
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	68.0%	31.0%	Biden by 37.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-28 07:57
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	68.0%	30.0%	Biden by 38.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-28 07:57
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	67.0%	31.0%	Biden by 36.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-28 07:57
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	67.0%	32.0%	Biden by 35.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-28 07:57
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	68.0%	32.0%	Biden by 36.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-28 07:57
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	67.0%	32.0%	Biden by 35.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-28 07:57
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	67.0%	31.0%	Biden by 36.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-28 07:57
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	68.0%	31.0%	Biden by 37.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-28 07:57
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	68.0%	31.0%	Biden by 37.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-28 07:57
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	67.0%	32.0%	Biden by 35.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-28 07:57
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	68.0%	31.0%	Biden by 37.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-28 07:57
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	67.0%	32.0%	Biden by 35.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-28 07:57
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	67.0%	32.0%	Biden by 35.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 19:45
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	66.0%	33.0%	Biden by 33.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 06:33
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	67.0%	32.0%	Biden by 35.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-22 21:32
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	66.0%	33.0%	Biden by 33.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-21 23:08
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	67.0%	32.0%	Biden by 35.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 22:18
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	65.0%	33.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 08:33
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	62.0%	37.0%	Biden by 25.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 05:24
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	59.0%	41.0%	Biden by 18.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 05:23
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	57.0%	41.0%	Biden by 16.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 05:18
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	56.0%	41.0%	Biden by 15.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-26 17:52
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	60.0%	39.0%	Biden by 21.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 05:16
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	59.0%	40.0%	Biden by 19.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 15:18
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	60.0%	40.0%	Biden by 20.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 05:12
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	60.0%	39.0%	Biden by 21.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-09-23 2020-09-24 19:21
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	54.4%	38.9%	DEM by 15.5%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-24 17:11

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	62.7%	35.2%	DEM by 27.5%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:09
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	62.9%	35.1%	DEM by 27.8%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-10-05 08:40
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	59.4%	38.7%	DEM by 20.8%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:06
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	61.0%	31.9%	DEM by 29.1%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:48
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	59.7%	26.8%	DEM by 32.9%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 19:45
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	47.0%	29.0%	DEM by 18.0%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:43
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	55.6%	43.9%	DEM by 11.7%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:50
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	48.0%	51.7%	REP by 3.6%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-24 06:57
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	47.7%	37.2%	DEM by 10.5%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:11

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

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