2020 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - Indiana [11 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-30 00:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:59 UTC
Leaders: Biden vs Trump Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Warren vs Trump Sanders vs Trump Buttigieg vs Trump Harris vs Trump Bloomberg vs Trump || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-10-30 00:00
Swayable w/3P
43.0%
55.2%
Trump by 12.2%
2020-10-27 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 05:45
2020-10-27 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-10-20 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:59
2020-10-27 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-10-20 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:59
2020-10-27 00:00
Morning Consult
42.0%
53.4%
Trump by 11.4%
2020-10-22 2020-10-31
2020-11-02 2020-11-02 11:20
2020-10-26 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-10-19 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 16:08
2020-10-26 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-10-19 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 16:08
2020-10-25 00:00
Swayable w/3P
42.3%
52.9%
Trump by 10.6%
2020-10-23 2020-10-26
2020-10-28 2020-10-30 20:56
2020-10-24 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-10-17 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-03 16:08
2020-10-24 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-10-17 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-03 16:08
2020-10-23 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
45.0%
53.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 2020-11-03 11:11
2020-10-23 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 2020-11-03 11:11
2020-10-22 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-29
2020-10-30 2020-11-03 11:11
2020-10-22 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
45.0%
53.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-29
2020-10-30 2020-11-03 11:11
2020-10-15 00:00
Ragnar w/3P
40.0%
48.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2020-10-08 2020-10-21
2020-10-26 2020-10-27 02:02
2020-10-14 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-11-03 11:11
2020-10-14 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
43.0%
53.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-11-03 11:11
2020-10-13 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
43.0%
55.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2020-09-29 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-31 18:43
2020-10-13 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-09-29 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-31 18:43
2020-10-11 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-09-27 2020-10-25
2020-10-26 2020-10-31 18:43
2020-10-11 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-27 2020-10-25
2020-10-26 2020-10-31 18:43
2020-10-11 00:00
SurveyUSA
42.0%
49.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2020-10-08 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-15 04:50
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-10-10 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-24
2020-10-25 2020-10-31 18:43
2020-10-10 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
43.0%
54.0%
Trump by 11.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-24
2020-10-25 2020-10-31 18:43
2020-10-10 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 2020-10-31 18:43
2020-10-10 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 2020-10-31 18:43
2020-10-09 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-22
2020-10-23 2020-10-26 20:14
2020-10-09 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
45.0%
53.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-22
2020-10-23 2020-10-26 20:14
2020-10-08 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-09-24 2020-10-21
2020-10-22 2020-10-26 20:14
2020-10-08 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-24 2020-10-21
2020-10-22 2020-10-26 20:14
2020-10-07 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-09-23 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-26 20:14
2020-10-07 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
43.0%
55.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2020-09-23 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-26 20:14
2020-10-05 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-19
2020-10-20 2020-10-26 20:14
2020-10-05 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-19
2020-10-20 2020-10-26 20:14
2020-10-05 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-18
2020-10-19 2020-10-26 20:14
2020-10-05 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-18
2020-10-19 2020-10-26 20:14
2020-10-04 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
45.0%
53.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2020-09-20 2020-10-17
2020-10-18 2020-10-26 20:14
2020-10-04 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
45.0%
53.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2020-09-20 2020-10-17
2020-10-18 2020-10-26 20:14
2020-10-02 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
45.0%
53.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-16
2020-10-17 2020-10-26 20:14
2020-10-02 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
45.0%
53.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-16
2020-10-17 2020-10-26 20:14
2020-10-02 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
45.0%
53.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-15
2020-10-16 2020-10-26 20:14
2020-10-02 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
45.0%
53.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-15
2020-10-16 2020-10-26 20:14
2020-10-01 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
45.0%
53.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2020-09-17 2020-10-14
2020-10-15 2020-10-23 18:58
2020-10-01 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
45.0%
53.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2020-09-17 2020-10-14
2020-10-15 2020-10-23 05:56
2020-09-29 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-22 20:35
2020-09-29 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-21 22:19
2020-09-29 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
43.0%
55.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-12
2020-10-13 2020-10-18 21:31
2020-09-29 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-12
2020-10-13 2020-10-18 05:56
2020-09-16 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
45.0%
52.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2020-09-01 2020-09-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-06 13:46
2020-09-16 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
45.0%
53.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2020-09-01 2020-09-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-03 22:45
2020-09-05 12:00
Change Research w/3P
39.0%
53.0%
Trump by 14.0%
2020-09-03 2020-09-07
2020-09-10 2020-09-10 23:47
2020-08-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
43.0%
55.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2020-08-01 2020-08-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-06 13:42
2020-08-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-08-01 2020-08-31
2020-09-23 2020-09-25 17:59
2020-07-29 00:00
Morning Consult
38.0%
55.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2020-07-24 2020-08-02
2020-08-05 2020-08-06 22:27
2020-07-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
43.0%
56.0%
Trump by 13.0%
2020-07-01 2020-07-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-06 13:39
2020-07-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
43.0%
55.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2020-07-01 2020-07-31
2020-09-23 2020-09-25 06:01
2020-06-19 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
40.0%
57.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2020-06-08 2020-06-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-06 13:36
2020-06-19 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
41.0%
56.0%
Trump by 15.0%
2020-06-08 2020-06-30
2020-09-23 2020-09-24 16:17
2020-05-22 12:00
Victoria Research
39.0%
49.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-05-21 2020-05-23
2020-05-25 2020-05-29 04:00
2020-04-12 00:00
Change Research
39.0%
52.0%
Trump by 13.0%
2020-04-10 2020-04-13
2020-04-19 2020-04-20 08:26
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
37.9%
56.8%
REP by 18.9%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-18 06:46
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
43.9%
54.1%
REP by 10.2%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:27
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
50.0%
48.9%
DEM by 1.0%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-09-25 05:30
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
39.3%
60.0%
REP by 20.7%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 05:45
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
41.0%
56.7%
REP by 15.6%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-09 06:07
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
41.6%
47.1%
REP by 5.6%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-16 08:49
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
36.8%
42.9%
REP by 6.1%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:28
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
39.7%
59.8%
REP by 20.2%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 08:20
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
37.7%
61.7%
REP by 24.0%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:36
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
37.7%
56.0%
REP by 18.4%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:33
Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races .
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin ".
Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here .
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