2020 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Massachusetts [11 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-27 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 18:41 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	68.0%	29.0%	Biden by 39.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 18:41
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	69.0%	29.0%	Biden by 40.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 18:41
2020-10-27 00:00	MassINC w/Lean [2]	62.0%	28.0%	Biden by 34.0%	2020-10-23 2020-10-30	2020-11-02 2020-11-02 23:23
2020-10-27 00:00	MassINC [2]	61.0%	27.0%	Biden by 34.0%	2020-10-23 2020-10-30	2020-11-02 2020-11-02 23:22
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	68.0%	29.0%	Biden by 39.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 16:54
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	68.0%	29.0%	Biden by 39.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 16:54
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	68.0%	29.0%	Biden by 39.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 16:54
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	68.0%	29.0%	Biden by 39.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 16:54
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	68.0%	29.0%	Biden by 39.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-03 12:14
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	68.0%	29.0%	Biden by 39.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-03 12:14
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	68.0%	29.0%	Biden by 39.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-03 12:14
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	68.0%	29.0%	Biden by 39.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-03 12:14
2020-10-18 00:00	YouGov w/Lean [2]	64.0%	29.0%	Biden by 35.0%	2020-10-14 2020-10-21	2020-10-26 2020-10-26 22:09
2020-10-18 00:00	YouGov [2]	64.0%	29.0%	Biden by 35.0%	2020-10-14 2020-10-21	2020-10-26 2020-10-26 22:07
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	70.0%	28.0%	Biden by 42.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-03 12:14
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	69.0%	28.0%	Biden by 41.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-03 12:14
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	69.0%	29.0%	Biden by 40.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-31 20:35
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	70.0%	28.0%	Biden by 42.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-31 20:35
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	70.0%	28.0%	Biden by 42.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-31 20:35
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	69.0%	28.0%	Biden by 41.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-31 20:35
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	69.0%	28.0%	Biden by 41.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-31 20:35
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	70.0%	28.0%	Biden by 42.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-31 20:35
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	69.0%	28.0%	Biden by 41.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-31 20:35
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	70.0%	28.0%	Biden by 42.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-31 20:35
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	69.0%	28.0%	Biden by 41.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-28 06:55
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	70.0%	28.0%	Biden by 42.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-28 06:55
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	70.0%	28.0%	Biden by 42.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-28 06:55
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	69.0%	28.0%	Biden by 41.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-28 06:55
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	70.0%	28.0%	Biden by 42.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-28 06:55
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	69.0%	28.0%	Biden by 41.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-28 06:55
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	69.0%	29.0%	Biden by 40.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-28 06:55
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	69.0%	29.0%	Biden by 40.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-28 06:55
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	69.0%	29.0%	Biden by 40.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-28 06:55
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	70.0%	29.0%	Biden by 41.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-28 06:55
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	69.0%	29.0%	Biden by 40.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-28 06:55
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	70.0%	28.0%	Biden by 42.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-28 06:55
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	69.0%	29.0%	Biden by 40.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-28 06:55
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	70.0%	29.0%	Biden by 41.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-28 06:55
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	69.0%	29.0%	Biden by 40.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-28 06:55
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	69.0%	29.0%	Biden by 40.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-28 06:55
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	69.0%	29.0%	Biden by 40.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 19:38
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	69.0%	29.0%	Biden by 40.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 06:25
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	69.0%	29.0%	Biden by 40.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-22 21:15
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	68.0%	29.0%	Biden by 39.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-21 22:58
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	68.0%	30.0%	Biden by 38.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 22:10
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	68.0%	30.0%	Biden by 38.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 06:46
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	65.0%	32.0%	Biden by 33.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 22:23
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	66.0%	32.0%	Biden by 34.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-03 22:32
2020-08-26 12:00	Emerson w/Lean [2]	69.4%	30.6%	Biden by 38.8%	2020-08-25 2020-08-27	2020-08-28 2020-08-28 20:47
2020-08-26 12:00	Emerson [2]	67.8%	29.8%	Biden by 38.0%	2020-08-25 2020-08-27	2020-08-28 2020-08-28 20:45
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	69.0%	29.0%	Biden by 40.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 22:19
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	68.0%	29.0%	Biden by 39.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 18:15

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-08-08 00:00	MassINC w/Lean [2]	63.0%	27.0%	Biden by 36.0%	2020-08-06 2020-08-09	2020-08-12 2020-08-12 17:39
2020-08-08 00:00	MassINC [2]	61.0%	27.0%	Biden by 34.0%	2020-08-06 2020-08-09	2020-08-12 2020-08-12 17:38
2020-08-04 00:00	UMass Amherst	61.0%	28.0%	Biden by 33.0%	2020-07-31 2020-08-07	2020-08-14 2020-08-14 15:56
2020-07-19 00:00	MassINC	55.0%	23.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-07-17 2020-07-20	2020-07-28 2020-07-28 19:05
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	72.0%	26.0%	Biden by 46.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 22:17
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	71.0%	27.0%	Biden by 44.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 06:30
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	71.0%	27.0%	Biden by 44.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 22:12
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	70.0%	28.0%	Biden by 42.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-09-23 2020-09-24 16:40
2020-05-06 00:00	Emerson w/Lean [2]	66.8%	33.1%	Biden by 33.7%	2020-05-05 2020-05-06	2020-05-11 2020-05-11 22:58
2020-05-06 00:00	Emerson [2]	60.3%	30.3%	Biden by 30.0%	2020-05-05 2020-05-06	2020-05-07 2020-05-08 17:06
2020-04-29 12:00	UMass Lowell	58.0%	30.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-04-27 2020-05-01	2020-05-07 2020-05-07 22:01
2019-04-06 00:00	Emerson	68.8%	31.2%	Biden by 37.6%	2019-04-04 2019-04-07	2019-04-07 2019-04-07 21:17
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	60.0%	32.8%	DEM by 27.2%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-20 02:57
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	60.7%	37.5%	DEM by 23.1%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:36
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	61.8%	36.0%	DEM by 25.8%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-30 03:05
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	61.9%	36.8%	DEM by 25.2%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:19
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	59.8%	32.5%	DEM by 27.3%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 09:51
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	61.5%	28.1%	DEM by 33.4%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 09:34
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	47.5%	29.0%	DEM by 18.5%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 03:23
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	53.2%	45.4%	DEM by 7.8%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 10:24
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	48.4%	51.2%	REP by 2.8%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-22 03:40
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	41.8%	41.9%	REP by 0.1%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:56

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

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