2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Massachusetts [11 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-18 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-10-28 06:55 UTC

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-18 00:00

YouGov w/Lean [2]

64.0%

29.0%

Biden
by 35.0%

2020-10-14
2020-10-21

2020-10-26
2020-10-26 22:09

2020-10-18 00:00

YouGov [2]

64.0%

29.0%

Biden
by 35.0%

2020-10-14
2020-10-21

2020-10-26
2020-10-26 22:07

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

70.0%

28.0%

Biden
by 42.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-28 06:55

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

69.0%

28.0%

Biden
by 41.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-28 06:55

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

70.0%

28.0%

Biden
by 42.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-28 06:55

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

69.0%

28.0%

Biden
by 41.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-28 06:55

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

69.0%

28.0%

Biden
by 41.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-28 06:55

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

70.0%

28.0%

Biden
by 42.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-28 06:55

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

69.0%

29.0%

Biden
by 40.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-28 06:55

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

69.0%

29.0%

Biden
by 40.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-28 06:55

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

70.0%

29.0%

Biden
by 41.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-28 06:55

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

69.0%

29.0%

Biden
by 40.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-28 06:55

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

69.0%

29.0%

Biden
by 40.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-28 06:55

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

70.0%

28.0%

Biden
by 42.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-28 06:55

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

70.0%

29.0%

Biden
by 41.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-28 06:55

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

69.0%

29.0%

Biden
by 40.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-28 06:55

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

69.0%

29.0%

Biden
by 40.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-28 06:55

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

69.0%

29.0%

Biden
by 40.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-28 06:55

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

69.0%

29.0%

Biden
by 40.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 19:38

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

69.0%

29.0%

Biden
by 40.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 06:25

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

69.0%

29.0%

Biden
by 40.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-22 21:15

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

68.0%

29.0%

Biden
by 39.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-21 22:58

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

68.0%

30.0%

Biden
by 38.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 22:10

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

68.0%

30.0%

Biden
by 38.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 06:46

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

65.0%

32.0%

Biden
by 33.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-08 22:23

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

66.0%

32.0%

Biden
by 34.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-03 22:32

2020-08-26 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

69.4%

30.6%

Biden
by 38.8%

2020-08-25
2020-08-27

2020-08-28
2020-08-28 20:47

2020-08-26 12:00

Emerson [2]

67.8%

29.8%

Biden
by 38.0%

2020-08-25
2020-08-27

2020-08-28
2020-08-28 20:45

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

69.0%

29.0%

Biden
by 40.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-08 22:19

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

68.0%

29.0%

Biden
by 39.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 18:15

2020-08-08 00:00

MassINC w/Lean [2]

63.0%

27.0%

Biden
by 36.0%

2020-08-06
2020-08-09

2020-08-12
2020-08-12 17:39

2020-08-08 00:00

MassINC [2]

61.0%

27.0%

Biden
by 34.0%

2020-08-06
2020-08-09

2020-08-12
2020-08-12 17:38

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-08-04 00:00

UMass Amherst

61.0%

28.0%

Biden
by 33.0%

2020-07-31
2020-08-07

2020-08-14
2020-08-14 15:56

2020-07-19 00:00

MassINC

55.0%

23.0%

Biden
by 32.0%

2020-07-17
2020-07-20

2020-07-28
2020-07-28 19:05

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

72.0%

26.0%

Biden
by 46.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-08 22:17

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

71.0%

27.0%

Biden
by 44.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 06:30

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

71.0%

27.0%

Biden
by 44.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-08 22:12

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

70.0%

28.0%

Biden
by 42.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 16:40

2020-05-06 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

66.8%

33.1%

Biden
by 33.7%

2020-05-05
2020-05-06

2020-05-11
2020-05-11 22:58

2020-05-06 00:00

Emerson [2]

60.3%

30.3%

Biden
by 30.0%

2020-05-05
2020-05-06

2020-05-07
2020-05-08 17:06

2020-04-29 12:00

UMass Lowell

58.0%

30.0%

Biden
by 28.0%

2020-04-27
2020-05-01

2020-05-07
2020-05-07 22:01

2019-04-06 00:00

Emerson

68.8%

31.2%

Biden
by 37.6%

2019-04-04
2019-04-07

2019-04-07
2019-04-07 21:17

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

60.0%

32.8%

DEM
by 27.2%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 02:57

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

60.7%

37.5%

DEM
by 23.1%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:36

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

61.8%

36.0%

DEM
by 25.8%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:05

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

61.9%

36.8%

DEM
by 25.2%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:19

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

59.8%

32.5%

DEM
by 27.3%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 09:51

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

61.5%

28.1%

DEM
by 33.4%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 09:34

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

47.5%

29.0%

DEM
by 18.5%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 03:23

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

53.2%

45.4%

DEM
by 7.8%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 10:24

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

48.4%

51.2%

REP
by 2.8%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-22 03:40

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

41.8%

41.9%

REP
by 0.1%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:56

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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