2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Alaska [3 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-27 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:14 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-10-27 12:00	Gravis	43.0%	52.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-10-26 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-10-29 20:12
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	45.0%	54.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:14
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	45.0%	54.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:14
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 13:48
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	46.0%	53.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 13:48
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	45.0%	54.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 13:48
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	45.0%	54.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 13:48
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-10-31 21:55
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-10-31 21:55
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	43.0%	54.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-10-31 21:55
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	43.0%	55.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-10-31 21:55
2020-10-20 00:00	PPP	45.0%	50.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2020-10-19 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-21 20:17
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-10-31 21:55
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-10-31 21:55
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-28 19:54
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-28 19:54
2020-10-12 00:00	Siena w/3P	39.0%	45.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2020-10-09 2020-10-14	2020-10-16 2020-10-16 17:06
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-28 19:54
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-28 19:54
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	52.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-28 19:54
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-28 19:54
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	52.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-28 19:54
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-28 19:54
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-24 16:44
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	44.0%	52.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-24 16:43
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-24 16:43
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	44.0%	52.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-24 16:42
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-24 16:41
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	52.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-24 16:40
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	52.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-24 16:40
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	46.0%	51.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-24 16:39
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-24 16:38
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	52.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-24 16:37
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-24 16:36
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	52.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-24 16:35
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-24 16:35
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	44.0%	52.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-24 16:34
2020-10-02 12:00	Patinkin Research Strategies	46.0%	49.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-04	2020-10-18 2020-10-18 22:21
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-24 16:33
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	52.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-24 16:30
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 17:28
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 04:18
2020-09-30 00:00	Alaska Survey Research	46.0%	50.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-04	2020-10-06 2020-10-07 05:27

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-22 19:38
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-21 21:14
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	43.0%	55.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 19:36
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	43.0%	54.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 03:28
2020-09-22 00:00	Harstad Strategic	46.0%	47.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2020-09-20 2020-09-23	2020-09-28 2020-09-28 22:21
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	43.0%	54.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-05 05:22
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-03 23:27
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	42.0%	57.0%	Trump by 15.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-05 05:19
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	42.0%	56.0%	Trump by 14.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 15:54
2020-07-24 00:00	PPP	44.0%	50.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2020-07-23 2020-07-24	2020-07-28 2020-07-28 19:08
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	43.0%	55.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-05 05:16
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	41.0%	56.0%	Trump by 15.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 02:12
2020-07-08 00:00	PPP	45.0%	48.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2020-07-07 2020-07-08	2020-07-09 2020-07-09 14:16
2020-07-02 00:00	Alaska Survey Research	47.6%	48.8%	Trump by 1.2%	2020-06-26 2020-07-07	2020-07-17 2020-07-18 00:13
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	46.0%	52.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-05 05:07
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	49.0%	48.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-09-23 2020-09-24 15:09
2019-07-31 12:00	Zogby	40.0%	45.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2019-07-22 2019-08-09	2019-08-16 2019-08-16 21:30
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	36.6%	51.3%	REP by 14.7%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-18 04:40
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	40.8%	54.8%	REP by 14.0%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-21 23:06
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	37.9%	59.4%	REP by 21.5%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-22 10:36
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	35.5%	61.1%	REP by 25.6%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-13 23:25
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	27.7%	58.6%	REP by 31.0%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-05 07:08
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	33.3%	50.8%	REP by 17.5%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 08:12
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	30.3%	39.5%	REP by 9.2%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:04
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	36.3%	59.6%	REP by 23.3%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 02:51
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	29.9%	66.7%	REP by 36.8%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-21 06:12
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	26.4%	54.4%	REP by 27.9%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:05

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

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