2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Colorado [9 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-16 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-10-28 21:36 UTC

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-16 00:00

Morning Consult

55.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2020-10-11
2020-10-20

2020-10-22
2020-10-22 15:21

2020-10-14 12:00

RBI Strategies w/Lean w/4P [2]

55.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 17.0%

2020-10-12
2020-10-16

2020-10-18
2020-10-19 12:19

2020-10-14 12:00

RBI Strategies w/4P [2]

55.0%

37.0%

Biden
by 18.0%

2020-10-12
2020-10-16

2020-10-18
2020-10-19 12:17

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

59.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 20.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 21:36

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

61.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 23.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 21:36

2020-10-13 00:00

Civiqs

54.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-10-11
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-15 18:42

2020-10-12 12:00

RMG w/3P

51.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-10-09
2020-10-15

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 01:03

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

60.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 22.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-28 21:36

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

59.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 19.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-28 21:36

2020-10-11 00:00

Keating-OnSight-Melanson

54.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 15.0%

2020-10-08
2020-10-13

2020-10-15
2020-10-15 18:04

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

60.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 22.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-28 21:36

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

59.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 19.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-28 21:36

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

59.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 19.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-28 21:36

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

60.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 22.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-28 21:36

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

58.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 18.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-24 22:21

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

60.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 22.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-24 22:21

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

58.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 18.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-24 22:21

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

59.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 21.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-24 22:21

2020-10-07 12:00

YouGov

47.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-10-05
2020-10-09

2020-10-19
2020-10-19 20:55

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

58.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 18.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-24 22:21

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

59.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 20.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-24 22:21

2020-10-07 00:00

Morning Consult

54.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-10-02
2020-10-11

2020-10-13
2020-10-13 16:31

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

58.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 17.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-24 22:21

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

59.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 20.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-24 22:21

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

58.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 17.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-24 22:21

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

59.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 20.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-24 22:21

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

59.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 20.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-24 22:21

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

58.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 17.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-24 22:21

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyUSA

50.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-10-01
2020-10-06

2020-10-08
2020-10-09 16:19

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

57.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-24 22:21

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

59.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 20.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-24 22:21

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

57.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-24 22:21

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

58.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 19.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-24 22:21

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

57.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 15.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 17:56

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

58.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 18.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 04:53

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

57.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-22 20:00

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

58.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 18.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-21 21:39

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

57.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 20:07

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

58.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 18.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 03:45

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

57.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-06 12:48

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

57.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-03 23:15

2020-09-03 00:00

Morning Consult

49.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-08-29
2020-09-07

2020-09-09
2020-09-09 16:58

2020-09-02 12:00

Fabrizio Ward Hart

50.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-08-30
2020-09-05

2020-09-10
2020-09-10 15:59

2020-08-30 12:00

GSG [3]

53.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-08-28
2020-09-01

2020-09-14
2020-09-14 15:19

2020-08-30 12:00

GSG w/Lean w/5P [3]

50.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-08-28
2020-09-01

2020-09-14
2020-09-14 15:16

2020-08-30 12:00

GSG w/5P [3]

50.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-08-28
2020-09-01

2020-09-14
2020-09-14 15:11

2020-08-26 00:00

Morning Consult

51.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-08-21
2020-08-30

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 16:09

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

57.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-06 12:46

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 16:54

2020-08-12 00:00

Morning Consult

51.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-08-07
2020-08-16

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 16:06

2020-07-24 00:00

PPP

54.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-07-23
2020-07-24

2020-07-28
2020-07-28 19:10

2020-07-22 00:00

Morning Consult

52.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-07-17
2020-07-26

2020-07-28
2020-07-28 06:50

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

58.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 18.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-06 12:43

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

58.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 18.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 02:24

2020-06-30 00:00

PPP

56.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 17.0%

2020-06-29
2020-06-30

2020-07-01
2020-07-01 18:33

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

57.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 15.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-06 12:41

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 15:28

2020-05-22 00:00

Morning Consult

50.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-05-17
2020-05-26

2020-07-28
2020-07-29 17:56

2020-05-09 12:00

GSG w/Lean [2]

53.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-05-07
2020-05-11

2020-05-18
2020-05-18 19:25

2020-05-09 12:00

GSG [2]

50.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-05-07
2020-05-11

2020-05-18
2020-05-18 19:22

2020-05-02 12:00

Keating

55.0%

35.0%

Biden
by 20.0%

2020-05-01
2020-05-03

2020-05-06
2020-05-06 15:59

2020-04-15 00:00

MSU Bozeman

53.2%

35.0%

Biden
by 18.2%

2020-04-10
2020-04-19

2020-05-05
2020-05-06 00:03

2020-02-17 12:00

Climate Nexus

46.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-02-15
2020-02-19

2020-03-02
2020-03-03 05:46

2019-08-18 00:00

Emerson

54.9%

45.1%

Biden
by 9.8%

2019-08-16
2019-08-19

2019-08-20
2019-08-20 16:35

2019-07-30 12:00

AARP

51.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2019-07-29
2019-07-31

2019-08-15
2019-09-17 08:18

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

48.2%

43.3%

DEM
by 4.9%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 06:03

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

51.5%

46.1%

DEM
by 5.4%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:04

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

53.7%

44.7%

DEM
by 9.0%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-22 10:42

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

47.0%

51.7%

REP
by 4.7%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 01:13

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

42.4%

50.8%

REP
by 8.4%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-09 05:45

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

44.4%

45.8%

REP
by 1.4%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 08:27

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

40.1%

35.9%

DEM
by 4.3%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:10

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

45.3%

53.1%

REP
by 7.8%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 04:16

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

35.1%

63.4%

REP
by 28.3%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:05

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

31.1%

55.1%

REP
by 24.0%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:18

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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