2020 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - Utah [6 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-27 00:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:43 UTC
Leaders: Biden vs Trump Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Warren vs Trump Sanders vs Trump Buttigieg vs Trump Harris vs Trump Bloomberg vs Trump || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-10-27 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
43.0%
55.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2020-10-20 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:43
2020-10-27 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
43.0%
55.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2020-10-20 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:43
2020-10-26 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-10-19 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 14:53
2020-10-26 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
43.0%
54.0%
Trump by 11.0%
2020-10-19 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 14:53
2020-10-24 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
43.0%
55.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2020-10-17 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-03 14:53
2020-10-24 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
43.0%
54.0%
Trump by 11.0%
2020-10-17 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-03 14:53
2020-10-23 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
43.0%
54.0%
Trump by 11.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 2020-11-01 11:29
2020-10-23 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
43.0%
55.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 2020-11-01 11:29
2020-10-22 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-29
2020-10-30 2020-11-01 11:29
2020-10-22 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
43.0%
54.0%
Trump by 11.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-29
2020-10-30 2020-11-01 11:29
2020-10-20 00:00
Y2 Analytics
44.0%
51.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-24
2020-10-31 2020-10-31 22:29
2020-10-15 00:00
Deseret/Hinckley w/4P
38.0%
50.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2020-10-12 2020-10-17
2020-10-22 2020-10-23 16:19
2020-10-14 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
43.0%
55.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-11-01 11:29
2020-10-14 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
43.0%
55.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-11-01 11:29
2020-10-13 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
43.0%
54.0%
Trump by 11.0%
2020-09-29 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-28 21:49
2020-10-13 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
43.0%
54.0%
Trump by 11.0%
2020-09-29 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-28 21:49
2020-10-11 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
45.0%
52.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2020-09-27 2020-10-25
2020-10-26 2020-10-28 21:49
2020-10-11 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
46.0%
52.0%
Trump by 6.0%
2020-09-27 2020-10-25
2020-10-26 2020-10-28 21:49
2020-10-10 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
45.0%
52.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-24
2020-10-25 2020-10-28 21:49
2020-10-10 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
45.0%
52.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-24
2020-10-25 2020-10-28 21:49
2020-10-10 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
45.0%
52.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 2020-10-28 21:49
2020-10-10 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
46.0%
52.0%
Trump by 6.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 2020-10-28 21:49
2020-10-09 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
46.0%
52.0%
Trump by 6.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-22
2020-10-23 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-09 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
45.0%
52.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-22
2020-10-23 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-08 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
45.0%
52.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2020-09-24 2020-10-21
2020-10-22 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-08 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
45.0%
53.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2020-09-24 2020-10-21
2020-10-22 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-07 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
45.0%
52.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2020-09-23 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-07 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
45.0%
52.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2020-09-23 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-05 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
45.0%
53.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-19
2020-10-20 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-05 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
45.0%
52.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-19
2020-10-20 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-05 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-18
2020-10-19 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-05 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
45.0%
53.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-18
2020-10-19 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-04 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-20 2020-10-17
2020-10-18 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-04 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
45.0%
53.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2020-09-20 2020-10-17
2020-10-18 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-02 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-16
2020-10-17 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-02 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-16
2020-10-17 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-02 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-15
2020-10-16 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-02 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-15
2020-10-16 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-01 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-17 2020-10-14
2020-10-15 2020-10-23 18:02
2020-10-01 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-17 2020-10-14
2020-10-15 2020-10-23 05:25
2020-09-30 12:00
Y2 Analytics Definitely [2]
36.0%
44.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-04
2020-10-05 2020-10-06 16:04
2020-09-30 12:00
Y2 Analytics Total [2]
40.0%
50.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-04
2020-10-05 2020-10-06 16:02
2020-09-29 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-22 20:05
2020-09-29 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-21 21:46
2020-09-29 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-12
2020-10-13 2020-10-18 20:18
2020-09-29 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
54.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-12
2020-10-13 2020-10-18 08:49
2020-09-16 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
43.0%
56.0%
Trump by 13.0%
2020-09-01 2020-09-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-07 05:44
2020-09-16 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
42.0%
56.0%
Trump by 14.0%
2020-09-01 2020-09-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-03 17:42
2020-09-10 00:00
Deseret/Hinckley w/4P
35.0%
53.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-07 2020-09-12
2020-09-17 2020-09-17 04:47
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-08-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-08-01 2020-08-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-07 05:38
2020-08-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
42.0%
56.0%
Trump by 14.0%
2020-08-01 2020-08-31
2020-09-23 2020-09-26 18:06
2020-07-30 00:00
Deseret/Hinckley w/4P
31.0%
50.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-07-27 2020-08-01
2020-08-07 2020-08-07 20:37
2020-07-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-07-01 2020-07-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-07 05:36
2020-07-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-07-01 2020-07-31
2020-09-23 2020-09-25 15:33
2020-06-19 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-06-08 2020-06-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-07 05:33
2020-06-19 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
43.0%
55.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2020-06-08 2020-06-30
2020-09-23 2020-09-24 19:31
2020-05-12 12:00
Y2 Analytics (CCES Edu Wgt) [5]
38.0%
48.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-05-09 2020-05-15
2020-06-18 2020-06-19 11:27
2020-05-12 12:00
Y2 Analytics (CPS Edu Wgt) [5]
38.0%
48.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2020-05-09 2020-05-15
2020-06-18 2020-06-19 11:24
2020-05-12 12:00
Y2 Analytics (UCEP Edu Wgt) [5]
40.0%
46.0%
Trump by 6.0%
2020-05-09 2020-05-15
2020-06-18 2020-06-19 11:23
2020-05-12 12:00
Y2 Analytics (CNN Edu Wgt) [5]
40.0%
46.0%
Trump by 6.0%
2020-05-09 2020-05-15
2020-06-18 2020-06-19 11:21
2020-05-12 12:00
Y2 Analytics (No Edu Wgt) [5]
41.0%
44.0%
Trump by 3.0%
2020-05-09 2020-05-15
2020-05-26 2020-05-27 03:28
2020-04-18 12:00
Deseret/Hinckley
32.0%
51.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-04-15 2020-04-21
2020-04-28 2020-04-29 16:24
2020-03-26 00:00
Y2 Analytics
41.0%
46.0%
Trump by 5.0%
2020-03-21 2020-03-30
2020-04-13 2020-04-13 17:15
2020-02-27 12:00
HarrisX
33.0%
50.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2020-02-24 2020-03-01
2020-03-04 2020-03-06 17:31
2020-01-19 00:00
Deseret/Hinckley
31.0%
49.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-01-15 2020-01-22
2020-01-29 2020-01-31 18:58
2019-08-03 12:00
Y2 Analytics
35.0%
36.0%
Trump by 1.0%
2019-07-31 2019-08-06
2019-08-28 2019-08-31 00:22
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
27.5%
45.5%
REP by 18.1%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-24 18:14
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
24.8%
72.8%
REP by 48.0%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:14
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
34.4%
62.6%
REP by 28.2%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-10-06 01:55
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
26.0%
71.5%
REP by 45.5%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:12
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
26.3%
66.8%
REP by 40.5%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-10 11:07
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
33.3%
54.4%
REP by 21.1%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-18 15:46
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
24.7%
43.4%
REP by 18.7%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 07:01
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
32.1%
66.2%
REP by 34.2%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 20:03
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
24.7%
74.5%
REP by 49.8%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-24 07:09
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
20.6%
72.8%
REP by 52.2%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:25
Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races .
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin ".
Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here .
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