2020 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Utah [6 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-27 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:43 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	43.0%	55.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:43
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	43.0%	55.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:43
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 14:53
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	43.0%	54.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 14:53
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	43.0%	55.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 14:53
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	43.0%	54.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 14:53
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	43.0%	54.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-01 11:29
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	43.0%	55.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-01 11:29
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-01 11:29
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	43.0%	54.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-01 11:29
2020-10-20 00:00	Y2 Analytics	44.0%	51.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-24	2020-10-31 2020-10-31 22:29
2020-10-15 00:00	Deseret/Hinckley w/4P	38.0%	50.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-10-12 2020-10-17	2020-10-22 2020-10-23 16:19
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	43.0%	55.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-01 11:29
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	43.0%	55.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-01 11:29
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	43.0%	54.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-28 21:49
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	43.0%	54.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-28 21:49
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	52.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-28 21:49
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	46.0%	52.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-28 21:49
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	52.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-28 21:49
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	52.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-28 21:49
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	52.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-28 21:49
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	46.0%	52.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-28 21:49
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	46.0%	52.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	52.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	52.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	52.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	52.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	52.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-24 23:01
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 18:02
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 05:25
2020-09-30 12:00	Y2 Analytics Definitely [2]	36.0%	44.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-04	2020-10-05 2020-10-06 16:04
2020-09-30 12:00	Y2 Analytics Total [2]	40.0%	50.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-04	2020-10-05 2020-10-06 16:02
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-22 20:05
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-21 21:46
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 20:18
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 08:49
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	43.0%	56.0%	Trump by 13.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 05:44
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	42.0%	56.0%	Trump by 14.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-03 17:42
2020-09-10 00:00	Deseret/Hinckley w/4P	35.0%	53.0%	Trump by 18.0%	2020-09-07 2020-09-12	2020-09-17 2020-09-17 04:47

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	41.0%	57.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 05:38
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	42.0%	56.0%	Trump by 14.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-26 18:06
2020-07-30 00:00	Deseret/Hinckley w/4P	31.0%	50.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-07-27 2020-08-01	2020-08-07 2020-08-07 20:37
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	40.0%	58.0%	Trump by 18.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 05:36
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	40.0%	58.0%	Trump by 18.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 15:33
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	41.0%	57.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 05:33
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	43.0%	55.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-09-23 2020-09-24 19:31
2020-05-12 12:00	Y2 Analytics (CCES Edu Wgt) [5]	38.0%	48.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-05-09 2020-05-15	2020-06-18 2020-06-19 11:27
2020-05-12 12:00	Y2 Analytics (CPS Edu Wgt) [5]	38.0%	48.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-05-09 2020-05-15	2020-06-18 2020-06-19 11:24
2020-05-12 12:00	Y2 Analytics (UCEP Edu Wgt) [5]	40.0%	46.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2020-05-09 2020-05-15	2020-06-18 2020-06-19 11:23
2020-05-12 12:00	Y2 Analytics (CNN Edu Wgt) [5]	40.0%	46.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2020-05-09 2020-05-15	2020-06-18 2020-06-19 11:21
2020-05-12 12:00	Y2 Analytics (No Edu Wgt) [5]	41.0%	44.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2020-05-09 2020-05-15	2020-05-26 2020-05-27 03:28
2020-04-18 12:00	Deseret/Hinckley	32.0%	51.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-04-15 2020-04-21	2020-04-28 2020-04-29 16:24
2020-03-26 00:00	Y2 Analytics	41.0%	46.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2020-03-21 2020-03-30	2020-04-13 2020-04-13 17:15
2020-02-27 12:00	HarrisX	33.0%	50.0%	Trump by 17.0%	2020-02-24 2020-03-01	2020-03-04 2020-03-06 17:31
2020-01-19 00:00	Deseret/Hinckley	31.0%	49.0%	Trump by 18.0%	2020-01-15 2020-01-22	2020-01-29 2020-01-31 18:58
2019-08-03 12:00	Y2 Analytics	35.0%	36.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2019-07-31 2019-08-06	2019-08-28 2019-08-31 00:22
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	27.5%	45.5%	REP by 18.1%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-24 18:14
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	24.8%	72.8%	REP by 48.0%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:14
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	34.4%	62.6%	REP by 28.2%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-10-06 01:55
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	26.0%	71.5%	REP by 45.5%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:12
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	26.3%	66.8%	REP by 40.5%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 11:07
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	33.3%	54.4%	REP by 21.1%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-18 15:46
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	24.7%	43.4%	REP by 18.7%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 07:01
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	32.1%	66.2%	REP by 34.2%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 20:03
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	24.7%	74.5%	REP by 49.8%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-24 07:09
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	20.6%	72.8%	REP by 52.2%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:25

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

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