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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Utah [6 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-27 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:43 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-27 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

43.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2020-10-20
2020-11-02

2020-11-03
2020-11-03 17:43

2020-10-27 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

43.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2020-10-20
2020-11-02

2020-11-03
2020-11-03 17:43

2020-10-26 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

44.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-10-19
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 14:53

2020-10-26 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

43.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2020-10-19
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 14:53

2020-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

43.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-03 14:53

2020-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

43.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-03 14:53

2020-10-23 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

43.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-11-01 11:29

2020-10-23 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

43.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-11-01 11:29

2020-10-22 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

44.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-11-01 11:29

2020-10-22 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

43.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-11-01 11:29

2020-10-20 00:00

Y2 Analytics

44.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-24

2020-10-31
2020-10-31 22:29

2020-10-15 00:00

Deseret/Hinckley w/4P

38.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2020-10-12
2020-10-17

2020-10-22
2020-10-23 16:19

2020-10-14 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

43.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-11-01 11:29

2020-10-14 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

43.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-11-01 11:29

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

43.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 21:49

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

43.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 21:49

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

45.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-28 21:49

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

46.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-28 21:49

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

45.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-28 21:49

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

45.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-28 21:49

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

45.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-28 21:49

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

46.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-28 21:49

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

46.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-24 23:01

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

45.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-24 23:01

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

45.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-24 23:01

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

45.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-24 23:01

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

45.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-24 23:01

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

45.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-24 23:01

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

45.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-24 23:01

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

45.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-24 23:01

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

44.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-24 23:01

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

45.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-24 23:01

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

44.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-24 23:01

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

45.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-24 23:01

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

44.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-24 23:01

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

44.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-24 23:01

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

44.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-24 23:01

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

44.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-24 23:01

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

44.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 18:02

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

44.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 05:25

2020-09-30 12:00

Y2 Analytics Definitely [2]

36.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-04

2020-10-05
2020-10-06 16:04

2020-09-30 12:00

Y2 Analytics Total [2]

40.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-04

2020-10-05
2020-10-06 16:02

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

44.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-22 20:05

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

44.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-21 21:46

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

44.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 20:18

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

44.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 08:49

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

43.0%

56.0%

Trump
by 13.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-07 05:44

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

42.0%

56.0%

Trump
by 14.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-03 17:42

2020-09-10 00:00

Deseret/Hinckley w/4P

35.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-09-07
2020-09-12

2020-09-17
2020-09-17 04:47

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

41.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-07 05:38

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

42.0%

56.0%

Trump
by 14.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-26 18:06

2020-07-30 00:00

Deseret/Hinckley w/4P

31.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 19.0%

2020-07-27
2020-08-01

2020-08-07
2020-08-07 20:37

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

40.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-07 05:36

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

40.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 15:33

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

41.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-07 05:33

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

43.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 19:31

2020-05-12 12:00

Y2 Analytics (CCES Edu Wgt) [5]

38.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-05-09
2020-05-15

2020-06-18
2020-06-19 11:27

2020-05-12 12:00

Y2 Analytics (CPS Edu Wgt) [5]

38.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-05-09
2020-05-15

2020-06-18
2020-06-19 11:24

2020-05-12 12:00

Y2 Analytics (UCEP Edu Wgt) [5]

40.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-05-09
2020-05-15

2020-06-18
2020-06-19 11:23

2020-05-12 12:00

Y2 Analytics (CNN Edu Wgt) [5]

40.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-05-09
2020-05-15

2020-06-18
2020-06-19 11:21

2020-05-12 12:00

Y2 Analytics (No Edu Wgt) [5]

41.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-05-09
2020-05-15

2020-05-26
2020-05-27 03:28

2020-04-18 12:00

Deseret/Hinckley

32.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 19.0%

2020-04-15
2020-04-21

2020-04-28
2020-04-29 16:24

2020-03-26 00:00

Y2 Analytics

41.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-03-21
2020-03-30

2020-04-13
2020-04-13 17:15

2020-02-27 12:00

HarrisX

33.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 17.0%

2020-02-24
2020-03-01

2020-03-04
2020-03-06 17:31

2020-01-19 00:00

Deseret/Hinckley

31.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 18.0%

2020-01-15
2020-01-22

2020-01-29
2020-01-31 18:58

2019-08-03 12:00

Y2 Analytics

35.0%

36.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2019-07-31
2019-08-06

2019-08-28
2019-08-31 00:22

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

27.5%

45.5%

REP
by 18.1%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-24 18:14

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

24.8%

72.8%

REP
by 48.0%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:14

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

34.4%

62.6%

REP
by 28.2%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-06 01:55

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

26.0%

71.5%

REP
by 45.5%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:12

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

26.3%

66.8%

REP
by 40.5%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 11:07

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

33.3%

54.4%

REP
by 21.1%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-18 15:46

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

24.7%

43.4%

REP
by 18.7%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 07:01

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

32.1%

66.2%

REP
by 34.2%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 20:03

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

24.7%

74.5%

REP
by 49.8%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 07:09

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

20.6%

72.8%

REP
by 52.2%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:25

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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