2020 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Missouri [10 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-29 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:52 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-10-29 00:00	RRG w/4P	45.0%	50.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2020-10-28 2020-10-29	2020-10-31 2020-10-31 17:56
2020-10-28 00:00	Swayable w/4P	43.4%	54.6%	Trump by 11.2%	2020-10-23 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 04:53
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:52
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:52
2020-10-27 00:00	Morning Consult	42.9%	52.3%	Trump by 9.4%	2020-10-22 2020-10-31	2020-11-02 2020-11-02 11:26
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	43.0%	54.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 15:50
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 15:50
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	43.0%	54.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 15:50
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	43.0%	54.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 15:50
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	43.0%	55.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-02 13:26
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	43.0%	54.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-02 13:26
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-02 13:26
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-02 13:26
2020-10-15 00:00	RRG w/4P	45.0%	51.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2020-10-14 2020-10-15	2020-10-17 2020-10-17 17:58
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	46.0%	52.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-02 13:26
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-02 13:26
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	46.0%	52.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-29 05:12
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-29 05:12
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-29 05:12
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	46.0%	52.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-29 05:12
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-29 05:12
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	46.0%	52.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-29 05:12
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	52.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-29 05:12
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-29 05:12
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	46.0%	52.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-25 22:55
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-25 22:55
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-25 22:55
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	52.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-25 22:55
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	46.0%	52.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-25 22:55
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-25 22:55
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	52.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-25 22:55
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	46.0%	51.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-25 22:55
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	46.0%	52.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-25 22:55
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	46.0%	51.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-25 22:55
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-25 22:55
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	46.0%	51.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-25 22:55
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	46.0%	51.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-25 22:55
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-25 22:55
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	46.0%	51.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-25 22:55
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-25 22:55
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 18:42
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	46.0%	51.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 05:44
2020-10-01 00:00	YouGov	43.2%	51.8%	Trump by 8.6%	2020-09-24 2020-10-07	2020-10-13 2020-10-13 15:59
2020-10-01 00:00	RRG	46.0%	51.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-01	2020-10-03 2020-10-04 04:17

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-09-30 12:00	Garin-Hart-Yang	48.0%	50.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2020-09-28 2020-10-02	2020-10-07 2020-10-08 15:45
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-22 20:23
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	52.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-21 22:06
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 21:01
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	51.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 06:57
2020-09-17 00:00	RRG	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-16 2020-09-17	2020-09-19 2020-09-19 21:10
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	46.0%	51.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-05 04:10
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-03 22:17
2020-09-02 12:00	We Ask America	44.0%	49.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-03	2020-09-08 2020-09-08 15:37
2020-08-27 12:00	Trafalgar w/3P	41.2%	51.9%	Trump by 10.7%	2020-08-26 2020-08-28	2020-08-31 2020-08-31 18:23
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-05 04:08
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 18:24
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-05 04:06
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	44.0%	53.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 06:42
2020-06-27 12:00	YouGov	43.0%	50.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-06-23 2020-07-01	2020-07-13 2020-07-13 15:57
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	47.0%	51.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-05 04:03
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	48.0%	50.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-09-23 2020-09-24 18:15
2020-06-19 12:00	Garin-Hart-Yang	48.0%	46.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2020-06-16 2020-06-22	2020-06-28 2020-06-30 16:20
2020-06-11 00:00	RRG	43.0%	51.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-06-10 2020-06-11	2020-06-13 2020-06-14 05:43
2020-05-27 00:00	We Ask America	44.0%	48.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2020-05-26 2020-05-27	2020-05-28 2020-05-29 04:06
2020-02-27 00:00	RRG	42.0%	52.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-02-26 2020-02-27	2020-02-28 2020-02-29 16:47
2020-02-20 12:00	OurProgress	42.0%	51.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-02-18 2020-02-22	2020-02-24 2020-02-24 19:40
2020-01-21 12:00	American Viewpoint	43.0%	50.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2020-01-20 2020-01-22	2020-01-28 2020-01-29 18:04
2019-09-19 00:00	RRG	42.0%	53.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2019-09-18 2019-09-19	2019-09-22 2019-09-22 19:40
2019-04-11 00:00	RRG	43.0%	51.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2019-04-10 2019-04-11	2019-08-26 2019-08-27 02:40
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	38.1%	56.8%	REP by 18.6%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-20 03:23
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	44.4%	53.8%	REP by 9.4%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:40
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	49.3%	49.4%	REP by 0.1%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-30 03:13
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	46.1%	53.3%	REP by 7.2%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:27
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	47.1%	50.4%	REP by 3.3%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 09:57
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	47.5%	41.2%	DEM by 6.3%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 15:40
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	44.1%	33.9%	DEM by 10.2%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 03:32
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	47.9%	51.8%	REP by 4.0%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 12:34
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	40.0%	60.0%	REP by 20.0%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-22 03:50
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	44.4%	51.2%	REP by 6.8%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 18:03

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

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