2020 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - South Dakota [3 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-27 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:41 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	36.0%	63.0%	Trump by 27.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:41
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	37.0%	61.0%	Trump by 24.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:41
2020-10-26 12:00	Nielson Brothers w/3P	40.0%	55.0%	Trump by 15.0%	2020-10-24 2020-10-28	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 09:39
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	37.0%	61.0%	Trump by 24.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 14:49
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	36.0%	62.0%	Trump by 26.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 14:49
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	36.0%	62.0%	Trump by 26.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 14:49
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	38.0%	60.0%	Trump by 22.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 14:49
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	38.0%	60.0%	Trump by 22.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-01 11:26
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	37.0%	61.0%	Trump by 24.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-01 11:26
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-01 11:26
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	38.0%	61.0%	Trump by 23.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-01 11:26
2020-10-20 12:00	Mason-Dixon	40.0%	51.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-10-19 2020-10-21	2020-10-25 2020-10-25 18:46
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	41.0%	57.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-01 11:26
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	56.0%	Trump by 15.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-01 11:26
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	42.0%	56.0%	Trump by 14.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-28 21:44
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	42.0%	55.0%	Trump by 13.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-28 21:44
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	43.0%	54.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-28 21:44
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	43.0%	55.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-28 21:44
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	43.0%	55.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-28 21:44
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	43.0%	54.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-28 21:44
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	43.0%	55.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-28 21:44
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	43.0%	55.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-28 21:44
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-24 22:54
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-24 22:54
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-24 22:54
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-24 22:54
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-24 22:54
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-24 22:54
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-24 22:54
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-24 22:54
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-24 22:54
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	45.0%	53.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-24 22:54
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	43.0%	54.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-24 22:54
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-24 22:54
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	43.0%	55.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-24 22:54
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	43.0%	55.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-24 22:54
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	43.0%	54.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-24 22:54
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-24 22:54
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	44.0%	54.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 18:00
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	43.0%	54.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 05:22
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	43.0%	56.0%	Trump by 13.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-22 20:03
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	42.0%	56.0%	Trump by 14.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-21 21:44
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	43.0%	56.0%	Trump by 13.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 20:16
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	42.0%	56.0%	Trump by 14.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 08:39
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	38.0%	60.0%	Trump by 22.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 03:55
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	41.0%	58.0%	Trump by 17.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-03 17:51
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	38.0%	59.0%	Trump by 21.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 03:54
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	38.0%	59.0%	Trump by 21.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-26 17:58
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	35.0%	63.0%	Trump by 28.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 03:51
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	34.0%	64.0%	Trump by 30.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 15:22

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	37.0%	61.0%	Trump by 24.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 03:49
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	37.0%	61.0%	Trump by 24.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-09-23 2020-09-24 19:26
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	31.7%	61.5%	REP by 29.8%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-24 17:38
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	39.9%	57.9%	REP by 18.0%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:11
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	44.8%	53.2%	REP by 8.4%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-10-06 01:49
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	38.4%	59.9%	REP by 21.5%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:08
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	37.6%	60.3%	REP by 22.7%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:51
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	43.0%	46.5%	REP by 3.5%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-18 15:41
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	37.1%	40.7%	REP by 3.5%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:50
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	46.5%	52.9%	REP by 6.3%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:57
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	36.5%	63.0%	REP by 26.5%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-24 07:02
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	31.7%	60.5%	REP by 28.8%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:15

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

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