2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Iowa [6 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-12 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-10-18 20:51 UTC

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-12 00:00

David Binder Research

44.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-10-10
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-15 05:01

2020-10-10 00:00

Data for Progress w/3P

47.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-10-08
2020-10-11

2020-10-15
2020-10-15 16:46

2020-10-08 00:00

YouGov w/Lean [2]

49.0%

49.0%

TIED

2020-10-06
2020-10-09

2020-10-11
2020-10-11 16:53

2020-10-08 00:00

YouGov [2]

46.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-06
2020-10-09

2020-10-11
2020-10-11 16:51

2020-10-05 00:00

Civiqs

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-03
2020-10-06

2020-10-07
2020-10-09 14:49

2020-10-03 12:00

Quinnipiac

50.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-01
2020-10-05

2020-10-07
2020-10-08 23:35

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

49.0%

49.0%

TIED

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 20:51

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 05:58

2020-09-26 00:00

Hart Research

47.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-24
2020-09-27

2020-10-02
2020-10-02 22:52

2020-09-26 00:00

Data for Progress [2]

45.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-09-23
2020-09-28

2020-10-01
2020-10-01 15:57

2020-09-26 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P [2]

44.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-09-23
2020-09-28

2020-10-01
2020-10-01 15:56

2020-09-25 00:00

RABA Research

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-09-23
2020-09-26

2020-09-30
2020-09-30 21:28

2020-09-20 12:00

Monmouth Low Turnout w/4P [3]

46.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-09-18
2020-09-22

2020-09-23
2020-09-27 05:55

2020-09-20 12:00

Monmouth High Turnout w/4P [3]

46.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-09-18
2020-09-22

2020-09-23
2020-09-27 05:51

2020-09-20 12:00

Monmouth RV w/4P [3]

44.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-09-18
2020-09-22

2020-09-23
2020-09-27 05:48

2020-09-19 12:00

Siena w/4P

45.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-16
2020-09-22

2020-09-23
2020-09-27 05:11

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

46.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 03:36

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

46.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-03 22:52

2020-09-16 00:00

Selzer

47.0%

47.0%

TIED

2020-09-14
2020-09-17

2020-09-22
2020-09-22 15:53

2020-09-02 12:00

Fabrizio Ward Hart

45.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-08-30
2020-09-05

2020-09-10
2020-09-10 16:08

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

46.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 03:33

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

46.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 18:02

2020-08-01 12:00

Monmouth Low Turnout [3]

47.0%

47.0%

TIED

2020-07-30
2020-08-03

2020-08-05
2020-08-05 19:16

2020-08-01 12:00

Monmouth High Turnout [3]

46.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-07-30
2020-08-03

2020-08-05
2020-08-05 19:15

2020-08-01 12:00

Monmouth RV [3]

45.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-07-30
2020-08-03

2020-08-05
2020-08-05 19:10

2020-07-31 00:00

David Binder Research

49.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-07-30
2020-07-31

2020-08-06
2020-08-06 22:39

2020-07-29 00:00

Data for Progress [2]

45.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-07-24
2020-08-02

2020-08-06
2020-08-06 22:56

2020-07-29 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P [2]

42.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-07-24
2020-08-02

2020-08-06
2020-08-06 22:54

2020-07-29 00:00

RMG

40.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-07-27
2020-07-30

2020-08-06
2020-08-06 22:33

2020-07-24 00:00

PPP

47.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-07-23
2020-07-24

2020-07-28
2020-07-28 19:14

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

45.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 03:30

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

44.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 06:06

2020-07-14 00:00

Spry

47.5%

45.9%

Biden
by 1.6%

2020-07-11
2020-07-16

2020-07-22
2020-07-23 19:19

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 03:25

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

46.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 16:22

2020-06-09 00:00

Selzer

43.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-06-07
2020-06-10

2020-06-15
2020-06-16 15:22

2020-06-07 12:00

Civiqs

46.0%

46.0%

TIED

2020-06-06
2020-06-08

2020-06-09
2020-06-10 03:44

2020-06-04 00:00

PPP

47.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-06-03
2020-06-04

2020-06-05
2020-06-06 15:56

2020-05-01 00:00

PPP

46.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-04-30
2020-05-01

2020-05-04
2020-05-04 13:41

2020-04-15 00:00

GBAO w/Lean [2]

45.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-04-13
2020-04-16

2020-07-10
2020-07-10 23:56

2020-04-15 00:00

GBAO [2]

43.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-04-13
2020-04-16

2020-07-10
2020-07-10 23:55

2020-03-04 00:00

Selzer

41.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-03-02
2020-03-05

2020-03-11
2020-03-12 02:05

2020-01-22 00:00

NYT/Siena

44.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-01-20
2020-01-23

2020-01-25
2020-01-25 15:44

2019-12-30 12:00

PPP

46.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2019-12-29
2019-12-31

2020-01-08
2020-01-08 18:41

2019-12-09 00:00

Emerson

45.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2019-12-07
2019-12-10

2019-12-11
2019-12-11 03:47

2019-10-28 00:00

NYT/Sienna

44.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2019-10-25
2019-10-30

2019-11-04
2019-11-04 21:12

2019-10-15 00:00

Emerson

49.4%

50.6%

Trump
by 1.2%

2019-10-13
2019-10-16

2019-10-17
2019-10-17 18:41

2019-04-29 00:00

WPA Intelligence

44.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2019-04-27
2019-04-30

2019-05-11
2019-05-12 07:11

2019-03-23 00:00

Emerson

52.8%

47.2%

Biden
by 5.6%

2019-03-21
2019-03-24

2019-03-24
2019-03-25 00:42

2019-03-22 00:00

Trump Internal (NBC)

52.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2019-03-15
2019-03-28

2019-06-16
2019-06-16 18:14

2019-02-01 00:00

Emerson

50.6%

49.4%

Biden
by 1.2%

2019-01-30
2019-02-02

2019-02-02
2019-03-06 04:17

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

41.7%

51.2%

REP
by 9.4%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 06:51

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

52.0%

46.2%

DEM
by 5.8%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:28

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

53.9%

44.4%

DEM
by 9.5%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-25 05:55

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

49.2%

49.9%

REP
by 0.7%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 05:57

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

48.5%

48.2%

DEM
by 0.3%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 09:29

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

50.3%

39.9%

DEM
by 10.3%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 09:06

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

43.3%

37.3%

DEM
by 6.0%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:29

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

54.7%

44.5%

DEM
by 10.2%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 08:28

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

45.9%

53.3%

REP
by 7.4%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:38

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

38.6%

51.3%

REP
by 12.7%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:37

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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