2020 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - Louisiana [8 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-28 00:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:53 UTC
Leaders: Biden vs Trump Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Warren vs Trump Sanders vs Trump Buttigieg vs Trump Harris vs Trump Bloomberg vs Trump || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-10-28 00:00
Swayable w/3P
39.1%
56.6%
Trump by 17.5%
2020-10-23 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 04:47
2020-10-27 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
39.0%
57.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-10-20 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:53
2020-10-27 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
36.0%
62.0%
Trump by 26.0%
2020-10-20 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:53
2020-10-26 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
39.0%
58.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-10-19 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 15:52
2020-10-26 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
35.0%
62.0%
Trump by 27.0%
2020-10-19 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 15:52
2020-10-24 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
39.0%
58.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-10-17 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-03 15:52
2020-10-24 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
36.0%
62.0%
Trump by 26.0%
2020-10-17 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-03 15:52
2020-10-23 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
39.0%
58.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 2020-11-02 13:30
2020-10-23 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
36.0%
62.0%
Trump by 26.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 2020-11-02 13:30
2020-10-22 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
40.0%
57.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-29
2020-10-30 2020-11-02 13:30
2020-10-22 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
36.0%
61.0%
Trump by 25.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-29
2020-10-30 2020-11-02 13:30
2020-10-22 12:00
University of New Orleans
36.0%
59.0%
Trump by 23.0%
2020-10-22 2020-10-22
2020-10-27 2020-10-27 17:45
2020-10-14 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
38.0%
60.0%
Trump by 22.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-11-02 13:30
2020-10-14 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
41.0%
55.0%
Trump by 14.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-11-02 13:30
2020-10-13 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
38.0%
59.0%
Trump by 21.0%
2020-09-29 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-31 18:10
2020-10-13 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
42.0%
55.0%
Trump by 13.0%
2020-09-29 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-31 18:10
2020-10-11 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
42.0%
54.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2020-09-27 2020-10-25
2020-10-26 2020-10-31 18:10
2020-10-11 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
38.0%
59.0%
Trump by 21.0%
2020-09-27 2020-10-25
2020-10-26 2020-10-31 18:10
2020-10-10 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
38.0%
59.0%
Trump by 21.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-24
2020-10-25 2020-10-31 18:10
2020-10-10 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
42.0%
55.0%
Trump by 13.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-24
2020-10-25 2020-10-31 18:10
2020-10-10 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
42.0%
55.0%
Trump by 13.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 2020-10-31 18:10
2020-10-10 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
38.0%
59.0%
Trump by 21.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 2020-10-31 18:10
2020-10-09 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
43.0%
54.0%
Trump by 11.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-22
2020-10-23 2020-10-25 23:05
2020-10-09 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
39.0%
59.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-22
2020-10-23 2020-10-25 23:05
2020-10-08 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
43.0%
54.0%
Trump by 11.0%
2020-09-24 2020-10-21
2020-10-22 2020-10-25 23:05
2020-10-08 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
39.0%
59.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2020-09-24 2020-10-21
2020-10-22 2020-10-25 23:05
2020-10-07 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
39.0%
59.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2020-09-23 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-25 23:05
2020-10-07 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
43.0%
54.0%
Trump by 11.0%
2020-09-23 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-25 23:05
2020-10-05 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-19
2020-10-20 2020-10-25 23:05
2020-10-05 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-19
2020-10-20 2020-10-25 23:05
2020-10-05 12:00
Trafalgar w/3P
35.9%
54.1%
Trump by 18.2%
2020-10-04 2020-10-06
2020-10-14 2020-10-14 22:28
2020-10-05 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-18
2020-10-19 2020-10-25 23:05
2020-10-05 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-18
2020-10-19 2020-10-25 23:05
2020-10-04 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-20 2020-10-17
2020-10-18 2020-10-25 23:05
2020-10-04 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-20 2020-10-17
2020-10-18 2020-10-25 23:05
2020-10-02 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-16
2020-10-17 2020-10-25 23:05
2020-10-02 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-16
2020-10-17 2020-10-25 23:05
2020-10-02 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
57.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-15
2020-10-16 2020-10-25 23:05
2020-10-02 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-15
2020-10-16 2020-10-25 23:05
2020-10-01 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-17 2020-10-14
2020-10-15 2020-10-23 18:45
2020-10-01 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-17 2020-10-14
2020-10-15 2020-10-23 05:46
2020-09-29 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-22 20:25
2020-09-29 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-21 22:08
2020-09-29 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-12
2020-10-13 2020-10-18 21:06
2020-09-29 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
44.0%
53.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-12
2020-10-13 2020-10-18 06:34
2020-09-16 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
42.0%
56.0%
Trump by 14.0%
2020-09-01 2020-09-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-06 15:41
2020-09-16 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
38.0%
60.0%
Trump by 22.0%
2020-09-01 2020-09-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-03 22:36
2020-09-04 00:00
Tyson Group w/3P
42.0%
48.0%
Trump by 6.0%
2020-09-02 2020-09-05
2020-09-21 2020-09-21 14:51
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-08-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
38.0%
59.0%
Trump by 21.0%
2020-08-01 2020-08-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-06 15:39
2020-08-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
42.0%
55.0%
Trump by 13.0%
2020-08-01 2020-08-31
2020-09-23 2020-09-25 18:09
2020-08-15 12:00
Trafalgar w/3P
37.9%
54.3%
Trump by 16.4%
2020-08-13 2020-08-17
2020-08-24 2020-08-24 18:43
2020-08-09 12:00
ALG Research
43.0%
50.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2020-08-06 2020-08-12
2020-08-19 2020-08-19 19:08
2020-07-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
39.0%
60.0%
Trump by 21.0%
2020-07-01 2020-07-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-06 15:35
2020-07-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
43.0%
55.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2020-07-01 2020-07-31
2020-09-23 2020-09-25 06:19
2020-06-19 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
37.0%
60.0%
Trump by 23.0%
2020-06-08 2020-06-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-06 15:31
2020-06-19 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
42.0%
54.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2020-06-08 2020-06-30
2020-09-23 2020-09-24 16:31
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
38.5%
58.1%
REP by 19.6%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-19 11:06
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
40.6%
57.8%
REP by 17.2%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:31
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
39.9%
58.6%
REP by 18.6%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-09-25 05:59
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
42.2%
56.7%
REP by 14.5%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:04
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
44.9%
52.6%
REP by 7.7%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-10 09:36
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
52.0%
39.9%
DEM by 12.1%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-16 09:09
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
45.6%
41.0%
DEM by 4.6%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:38
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
44.1%
54.3%
REP by 10.2%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 09:28
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
38.2%
60.8%
REP by 22.6%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:45
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
45.8%
51.2%
REP by 5.5%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:43
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin ".
Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here .
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