2020 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Wyoming [3 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-27 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:31 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	32.0%	66.0%	Trump by 34.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:31
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	33.0%	66.0%	Trump by 33.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:31
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	33.0%	66.0%	Trump by 33.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 14:32
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	33.0%	66.0%	Trump by 33.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 14:32
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	33.0%	65.0%	Trump by 32.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 14:32
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	34.0%	65.0%	Trump by 31.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 14:32
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	32.0%	66.0%	Trump by 34.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-10-31 22:22
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	33.0%	65.0%	Trump by 32.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-10-31 22:22
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	33.0%	66.0%	Trump by 33.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-10-31 22:22
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	32.0%	66.0%	Trump by 34.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-10-31 22:22
2020-10-18 12:00	University of Wyoming w/3P	31.0%	59.0%	Trump by 28.0%	2020-10-08 2020-10-28	2020-10-30 2020-10-31 00:00
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	30.0%	68.0%	Trump by 38.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-10-31 22:22
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	31.0%	68.0%	Trump by 37.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-10-31 22:22
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	32.0%	66.0%	Trump by 34.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-28 20:53
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	32.0%	66.0%	Trump by 34.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-28 20:53
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	31.0%	67.0%	Trump by 36.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-28 20:53
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	31.0%	67.0%	Trump by 36.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-28 20:53
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	31.0%	67.0%	Trump by 36.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-28 20:53
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	31.0%	67.0%	Trump by 36.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-28 20:53
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	31.0%	67.0%	Trump by 36.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-28 20:53
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	30.0%	67.0%	Trump by 37.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-28 20:53
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	30.0%	67.0%	Trump by 37.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-24 21:48
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	30.0%	68.0%	Trump by 38.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-24 21:48
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	31.0%	66.0%	Trump by 35.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-24 21:48
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	31.0%	67.0%	Trump by 36.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-24 21:48
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	32.0%	67.0%	Trump by 35.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-24 21:48
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	32.0%	66.0%	Trump by 34.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-24 21:48
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	32.0%	66.0%	Trump by 34.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-24 21:48
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	32.0%	66.0%	Trump by 34.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-24 21:48
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	32.0%	66.0%	Trump by 34.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-24 21:48
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	33.0%	66.0%	Trump by 33.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-24 21:48
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	32.0%	66.0%	Trump by 34.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-24 21:48
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	33.0%	66.0%	Trump by 33.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-24 21:48
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	33.0%	66.0%	Trump by 33.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-24 21:48
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	33.0%	66.0%	Trump by 33.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-24 21:48
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	34.0%	64.0%	Trump by 30.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-24 21:48
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	34.0%	64.0%	Trump by 30.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-24 21:48
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	36.0%	63.0%	Trump by 27.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 17:50
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	36.0%	63.0%	Trump by 27.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 04:46
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	36.0%	63.0%	Trump by 27.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-22 19:54
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	36.0%	62.0%	Trump by 26.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-21 21:33
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	35.0%	63.0%	Trump by 28.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 19:59
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	36.0%	63.0%	Trump by 27.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 09:11
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	33.0%	65.0%	Trump by 32.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-09 14:13
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	34.0%	65.0%	Trump by 31.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-03 17:18
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	25.0%	74.0%	Trump by 49.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-09-23 2020-10-09 14:11
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	27.0%	73.0%	Trump by 46.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-26 18:33
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	28.0%	70.0%	Trump by 42.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-09 14:07
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	28.0%	70.0%	Trump by 42.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 15:50
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	22.0%	78.0%	Trump by 56.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-09 14:05
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	21.0%	78.0%	Trump by 57.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-09-23 2020-09-24 19:44

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	21.6%	67.4%	REP by 45.8%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-24 18:38
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	27.8%	68.6%	REP by 40.8%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:20
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	32.5%	64.8%	REP by 32.2%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-10-06 05:23
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	29.1%	68.9%	REP by 39.8%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:21
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	27.7%	67.8%	REP by 40.1%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 11:18
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	36.8%	49.8%	REP by 13.0%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-18 15:55
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	34.1%	39.7%	REP by 5.6%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 07:13
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	38.0%	60.5%	REP by 22.5%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 20:15
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	28.2%	70.5%	REP by 42.3%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-24 07:48
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	28.0%	62.6%	REP by 34.7%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:37

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

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