2020 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Alabama [9 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-30 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 18:08 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-10-30 00:00	Swayable w/3P	37.8%	55.0%	Trump by 17.2%	2020-10-27 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 05:31
2020-10-30 00:00	Data for Progress w/4P	38.0%	58.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-10-27 2020-11-01	2020-11-01 2020-11-02 03:38
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	36.0%	62.0%	Trump by 26.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 18:08
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	39.0%	58.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 18:08
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	39.0%	58.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 16:19
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	36.0%	62.0%	Trump by 26.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 16:19
2020-10-26 00:00	AUM	38.9%	58.1%	Trump by 19.2%	2020-10-23 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-10-30 01:38
2020-10-25 00:00	Swayable w/3P	37.2%	55.8%	Trump by 18.6%	2020-10-23 2020-10-26	2020-10-28 2020-10-30 20:42
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	38.0%	60.0%	Trump by 22.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 16:19
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	41.0%	56.0%	Trump by 15.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 16:19
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	38.0%	60.0%	Trump by 22.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-03 11:28
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	41.0%	56.0%	Trump by 15.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-03 11:28
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	41.0%	56.0%	Trump by 15.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-03 11:28
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	38.0%	60.0%	Trump by 22.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-03 11:28
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	57.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-03 11:28
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	37.0%	61.0%	Trump by 24.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-03 11:28
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	57.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-31 19:12
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	37.0%	61.0%	Trump by 24.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-31 19:12
2020-10-13 00:00	Moore Information	38.0%	55.0%	Trump by 17.0%	2020-10-11 2020-10-14	2020-10-19 2020-10-19 22:52

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	38.0%	61.0%	Trump by 23.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-31 19:12
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	57.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-31 19:12
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	57.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-31 19:12
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	38.0%	61.0%	Trump by 23.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-31 19:12
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	57.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-31 19:12
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	38.0%	61.0%	Trump by 23.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-31 19:12
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	57.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-26 21:43
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	38.0%	61.0%	Trump by 23.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-26 21:43
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	38.0%	60.0%	Trump by 22.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-26 21:43
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	57.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-26 21:43
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	38.0%	60.0%	Trump by 22.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-26 21:43
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	56.0%	Trump by 15.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-26 21:43
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	38.0%	60.0%	Trump by 22.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-26 21:43
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	56.0%	Trump by 15.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-26 21:43
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	38.0%	60.0%	Trump by 22.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-26 21:43
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	56.0%	Trump by 15.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-26 21:43
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	42.0%	56.0%	Trump by 14.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-26 21:43
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-26 21:43
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-26 21:43
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	42.0%	56.0%	Trump by 14.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-26 21:43
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-26 21:43
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	42.0%	55.0%	Trump by 13.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-26 21:43
2020-10-02 00:00	AUM	37.0%	57.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-03	2020-10-05 2020-10-06 12:51
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 19:07
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	42.0%	55.0%	Trump by 13.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 06:03
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-22 20:43
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	42.0%	55.0%	Trump by 13.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-21 22:27
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 21:43
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	42.0%	55.0%	Trump by 13.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 03:24
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	42.0%	55.0%	Trump by 13.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-06 20:52
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-03 23:25
2020-08-18 12:00	Tyson Group	44.0%	48.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2020-08-17 2020-08-19	2020-09-21 2020-09-21 14:42
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	33.0%	65.0%	Trump by 32.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-06 20:50
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	37.0%	60.0%	Trump by 23.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 15:52
2020-07-29 00:00	Morning Consult	36.0%	58.0%	Trump by 22.0%	2020-07-24 2020-08-02	2020-08-04 2020-08-05 16:57
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	35.0%	63.0%	Trump by 28.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-06 20:48
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	39.0%	58.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 02:10
2020-07-06 00:00	AUM	40.6%	55.0%	Trump by 14.4%	2020-07-02 2020-07-09	2020-07-10 2020-07-10 17:10
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	35.0%	63.0%	Trump by 28.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-06 20:44
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	39.0%	57.0%	Trump by 18.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-09-23 2020-09-24 15:05
2020-05-16 12:00	FM3	39.0%	53.0%	Trump by 14.0%	2020-05-14 2020-05-18	2020-06-22 2020-06-23 05:29
2020-02-05 12:00	Mason-Dixon	38.0%	58.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-02-04 2020-02-06	2020-02-11 2020-02-11 19:05
2020-01-08 12:00	WPA Intelligence	38.0%	59.0%	Trump by 21.0%	2020-01-07 2020-01-09	2020-01-28 2020-01-29 04:13
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	34.4%	62.1%	REP by 27.7%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-18 04:25
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	38.4%	60.6%	REP by 22.2%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-21 23:03
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	38.7%	60.3%	REP by 21.6%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-22 10:11
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	36.8%	62.5%	REP by 25.6%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-13 23:19
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	41.6%	56.5%	REP by 14.9%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-05 07:04
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	43.2%	50.1%	REP by 7.0%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 08:11
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	40.9%	47.7%	REP by 6.8%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:01
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	39.9%	59.2%	REP by 19.3%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 02:20
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	38.3%	60.5%	REP by 22.3%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-21 05:58
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	47.5%	48.8%	REP by 1.3%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 16:59

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

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