2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Florida [29 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-22 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-10-23 19:21 UTC

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-22 00:00

St Pete

48.9%

47.4%

Biden
by 1.5%

2020-10-21
2020-10-22

2020-10-22
2020-10-23 16:41

2020-10-21 00:00

Rassmussen w/Lean [2]

46.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-10-20
2020-10-21

2020-10-23
2020-10-23 16:39

2020-10-21 00:00

Rassmussen [2]

46.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-10-20
2020-10-21

2020-10-23
2020-10-23 16:36

2020-10-19 00:00

Civiqs

51.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-21 17:48

2020-10-18 00:00

CNN/SSRS RV w/4P [2]

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-21 21:02

2020-10-18 00:00

CNN/SSRS LV w/4P [2]

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-21 20:27

2020-10-18 00:00

Change Research

50.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 15:30

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-17 12:00

Ipsos w/5P [2]

51.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-14
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-22 05:25

2020-10-17 12:00

Ipsos [2]

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-14
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-22 05:23

2020-10-16 00:00

Morning Consult

52.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-10-11
2020-10-20

2020-10-22
2020-10-22 15:22

2020-10-14 12:00

UNF

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-12
2020-10-16

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 05:57

2020-10-14 00:00

HarrisX

48.0%

48.0%

TIED

2020-10-12
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-16 23:33

2020-10-12 12:00

Trafalgar w/3P

46.1%

48.4%

Trump
by 2.3%

2020-10-11
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-15 15:17

2020-10-12 00:00

St Pete

49.2%

47.2%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-11
2020-10-12

2020-10-12
2020-10-15 04:33

2020-10-11 12:00

Emerson

50.0%

47.2%

Biden
by 2.8%

2020-10-10
2020-10-12

2020-10-12
2020-10-13 00:45

2020-10-11 00:00

Ipsos w/5P [2]

50.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-07
2020-10-14

2020-10-14
2020-10-15 15:27

2020-10-11 00:00

Ipsos [2]

49.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-07
2020-10-14

2020-10-14
2020-10-15 15:26

2020-10-10 12:00

Mason-Dixon

48.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-08
2020-10-12

2020-10-15
2020-10-16 15:28

2020-10-10 00:00

ClearView

47.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-10-07
2020-10-12

2020-10-14
2020-10-15 04:45

2020-10-10 00:00

FAU/BEBI

51.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-09
2020-10-10

2020-10-13
2020-10-13 16:11

2020-10-07 00:00

Morning Consult

51.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-02
2020-10-11

2020-10-13
2020-10-13 16:34

2020-10-07 00:00

InsiderAdvantage w/3P

43.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-10-06
2020-10-07

2020-10-08
2020-10-09 16:31

2020-10-06 12:00

RMG w/Strong D Turnout w/4P [3]

50.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-04
2020-10-08

2020-10-13
2020-10-14 01:37

2020-10-06 12:00

RMG w/Strong R Turnout w/4P [3]

46.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-10-04
2020-10-08

2020-10-13
2020-10-14 01:36

2020-10-06 12:00

RMG w/4P [3]

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-04
2020-10-08

2020-10-13
2020-10-14 01:29

2020-10-05 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

49.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-04
2020-10-06

2020-10-09
2020-10-09 19:06

2020-10-03 12:00

Ipsos

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-07

2020-10-07
2020-10-09 15:23

2020-10-03 12:00

Quinnipiac

51.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-10-01
2020-10-05

2020-10-07
2020-10-08 23:12

2020-10-03 12:00

Change Research

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-02
2020-10-04

2020-10-06
2020-10-07 17:41

2020-10-03 00:00

UNF

51.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-01
2020-10-04

2020-10-06
2020-10-07 16:37

2020-10-03 00:00

Suffolk w/5P

45.0%

45.0%

TIED

2020-10-01
2020-10-04

2020-10-06
2020-10-07 15:22

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 19:21

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

50.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 06:13

2020-10-01 00:00

Siena w/4P

47.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-01

2020-10-03
2020-10-04 06:57

2020-09-30 00:00

Saint Leo

49.2%

43.4%

Biden
by 5.8%

2020-09-27
2020-10-02

2020-10-12
2020-10-12 17:16

2020-09-30 00:00

Saint Leo

49.9%

43.9%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-02

2020-10-07
2020-10-08 15:17

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

49.0%

49.0%

TIED

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-22 20:56

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

50.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-21 22:37

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

49.0%

49.0%

TIED

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 21:54

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

50.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 05:03

2020-09-26 12:00

Cherry

49.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-23
2020-09-29

2020-10-07
2020-10-08 05:49

2020-09-25 00:00

Susquehanna w/3P

46.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-23
2020-09-26

2020-09-28
2020-09-29 14:03

2020-09-24 12:00

Redfield and Wilton w/4P

48.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-23
2020-09-25

2020-10-02
2020-10-02 22:12

2020-09-22 00:00

St. Pete

49.7%

46.5%

Biden
by 3.2%

2020-09-21
2020-09-22

2020-09-23
2020-09-23 17:41

2020-09-19 12:00

Change Research

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-18
2020-09-20

2020-09-23
2020-09-23 16:56

2020-09-19 00:00

Data for Progress

46.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-15
2020-09-22

2020-09-24
2020-09-27 16:54

2020-09-18 12:00

Hart Research

51.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-17
2020-09-19

2020-09-24
2020-09-27 16:00

2020-09-18 00:00

ABC/WaPo RV [2]

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-15
2020-09-20

2020-09-23
2020-09-23 16:27

2020-09-18 00:00

ABC/WaPo LV [2]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-15
2020-09-20

2020-09-23
2020-09-23 16:25

2020-09-17 00:00

YouGov

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-09-15
2020-09-18

2020-09-20
2020-09-20 18:31

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

51.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 20:35

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

51.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-03 23:00

2020-09-14 00:00

Ipsos

47.0%

47.0%

TIED

2020-09-11
2020-09-16

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 03:51

2020-09-13 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-12
2020-09-14

2020-09-18
2020-09-18 18:18

2020-09-12 00:00

Monmouth Low Turnout [3]

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-10
2020-09-13

2020-09-15
2020-09-15 17:46

2020-09-12 00:00

Monmouth High Turnout [3]

50.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-10
2020-09-13

2020-09-15
2020-09-15 17:44

2020-09-12 00:00

Monmouth RV w/4P [3]

50.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-10
2020-09-13

2020-09-15
2020-09-15 17:41

2020-09-12 00:00

FAU BEPI w/Lean [2]

50.0%

50.0%

TIED

2020-09-11
2020-09-12

2020-09-15
2020-09-15 15:50

2020-09-12 00:00

FAU BEPI [2]

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-11
2020-09-12

2020-09-15
2020-09-15 15:47

2020-09-08 00:00

St. Pete

49.6%

47.1%

Biden
by 2.5%

2020-09-07
2020-09-08

2020-09-09
2020-09-09 18:25

2020-09-06 00:00

KFF/Cook Total [2]

43.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-08-29
2020-09-13

2020-09-17
2020-09-17 16:23

2020-09-06 00:00

KFF/Cook Definitely [2]

37.0%

37.0%

TIED

2020-08-29
2020-09-13

2020-09-17
2020-09-17 16:21

2020-09-05 12:00

Change Research

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-04
2020-09-06

2020-09-09
2020-09-09 16:18

2020-09-03 12:00

Marist LV [2]

48.0%

48.0%

TIED

2020-08-31
2020-09-06

2020-09-08
2020-09-08 17:10

2020-09-03 12:00

Marist RV [2]

47.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-08-31
2020-09-06

2020-09-08
2020-09-08 17:07

2020-09-03 00:00

Benenson

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-08-28
2020-09-08

2020-09-10
2020-09-10 16:58

2020-09-03 00:00

Morning Consult

50.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-08-29
2020-09-07

2020-09-09
2020-09-09 17:00

2020-09-02 12:00

Trafalgar w/3P

45.6%

48.7%

Trump
by 3.1%

2020-09-01
2020-09-03

2020-09-04
2020-09-04 17:21

2020-09-01 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-08-30
2020-09-03

2020-09-08
2020-09-08 20:27

2020-08-30 12:00

GQR

51.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-08-26
2020-09-03

2020-09-04
2020-09-08 19:43

2020-08-30 12:00

Quinnipiac

48.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-08-28
2020-09-01

2020-09-03
2020-09-03 20:56

2020-08-26 00:00

Morning Consult

49.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-08-21
2020-08-30

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 17:09

2020-08-24 00:00

Opinium

50.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-08-21
2020-08-26

2020-09-02
2020-09-02 17:36

2020-08-22 12:00

Change Research

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-08-21
2020-08-23

2020-08-26
2020-08-26 15:31

2020-08-22 00:00

PPP

48.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-08-21
2020-08-22

2020-08-25
2020-08-25 13:56

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 20:32

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 20:30

2020-08-16 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

49.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-08-16
2020-08-16

2020-08-21
2020-08-21 23:19

2020-08-13 12:00

Tyson Group w/3P

46.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-08-11
2020-08-15

2020-09-21
2020-09-21 14:37

2020-08-12 00:00

Morning Consult

50.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-08-07
2020-08-16

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 16:57

2020-08-08 12:00

Change Research

50.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-08-07
2020-08-09

2020-08-12
2020-08-12 18:29

2020-08-03 12:00

OnMessage

49.0%

49.0%

TIED

2020-08-02
2020-08-04

2020-08-18
2020-08-19 03:19

2020-07-25 12:00

Change Research

48.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-07-24
2020-07-26

2020-07-29
2020-07-29 18:25

2020-07-22 12:00

Zogby w/4P

43.0%

43.0%

TIED

2020-07-21
2020-07-23

2020-08-05
2020-08-05 17:30

2020-07-22 00:00

Mason-Dixon

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-07-20
2020-07-23

2020-07-30
2020-07-31 06:46

2020-07-22 00:00

Morning Consult

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-07-17
2020-07-26

2020-07-28
2020-07-28 06:52

2020-07-21 12:00

CNN/SSRS

51.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-07-18
2020-07-24

2020-07-26
2020-07-26 18:07

2020-07-20 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

48.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-07-19
2020-07-21

2020-07-30
2020-07-31 05:49

2020-07-18 12:00

Quinnipiac

51.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-07-16
2020-07-20

2020-07-23
2020-07-23 19:55

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 20:27

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

50.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 20:24

2020-07-14 00:00

St. Pete

50.4%

44.4%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-07-13
2020-07-14

2020-07-14
2020-07-23 19:51

2020-07-13 12:00

Gravis

53.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-07-13
2020-07-13

2020-07-13
2020-07-14 23:21

2020-07-11 12:00

Change Research

50.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-07-10
2020-07-12

2020-07-15
2020-07-15 17:33

2020-07-09 00:00

YouGov

48.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-07-07
2020-07-10

2020-07-12
2020-07-12 15:06

2020-07-01 00:00

Trafalgar

45.9%

45.9%

TIED

2020-06-29
2020-07-02

2020-07-03
2020-07-04 02:52

2020-06-27 12:00

Change Research

50.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-06-26
2020-06-28

2020-07-01
2020-07-01 18:08

2020-06-22 00:00

Fox News

49.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-06-20
2020-06-23

2020-06-25
2020-06-25 22:27

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 20:17

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

48.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 15:37

2020-06-15 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

45.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-06-14
2020-06-15

2020-06-25
2020-06-25 16:14

2020-06-13 12:00

Siena

47.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-18

2020-06-25
2020-06-25 15:43

2020-06-13 12:00

Change Research

50.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-06-12
2020-06-14

2020-06-17
2020-06-18 04:01

2020-06-10 12:00

TIPP LV [2]

51.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-06-09
2020-06-11

2020-06-16
2020-06-16 15:29

2020-06-10 12:00

TIPP RV [2]

50.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-06-09
2020-06-11

2020-06-16
2020-06-16 15:27

2020-05-30 12:00

Change Research

48.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-05-29
2020-05-31

2020-06-03
2020-06-03 18:20

2020-05-27 00:00

St. Pete

47.5%

46.7%

Biden
by 0.8%

2020-05-26
2020-05-27

2020-05-27
2020-05-29 04:03

2020-05-24 12:00

Cygnal Total [2]

47.0%

43.8%

Biden
by 3.2%

2020-05-18
2020-05-30

2020-06-11
2020-06-12 15:26

2020-05-24 12:00

Cygnal Definitely [2]

38.3%

36.2%

Biden
by 2.1%

2020-05-18
2020-05-30

2020-06-11
2020-06-12 15:23

2020-05-22 00:00

Morning Consult

47.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-05-17
2020-05-26

2020-07-28
2020-07-29 17:58

2020-05-16 00:00

Point Blank Political HtH [2]

52.3%

47.7%

Biden
by 4.6%

2020-05-14
2020-05-17

2020-05-19
2020-05-19 14:18

2020-05-16 00:00

Point Blank Political w/Others [2]

44.5%

43.9%

Biden
by 0.6%

2020-05-14
2020-05-17

2020-05-19
2020-05-19 14:12

2020-05-12 12:00

Redfield & Wilton

45.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-05-10
2020-05-14

2020-05-21
2020-05-21 23:52

2020-05-10 12:00

FAU BEPI

53.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-05-08
2020-05-12

2020-05-15
2020-05-15 16:32

2020-04-20 00:00

Fox News

46.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-04-18
2020-04-21

2020-04-23
2020-04-24 03:14

2020-04-18 12:00

Quinnipiac

46.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-04-16
2020-04-20

2020-04-22
2020-04-22 18:54

2020-04-17 00:00

St. Pete

48.3%

47.5%

Biden
by 0.8%

2020-04-16
2020-04-17

2020-04-18
2020-04-18 21:42

2020-04-02 12:00

UNF

46.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-03-31
2020-04-04

2020-04-06
2020-04-06 16:20

2020-03-15 12:00

AtlasIntel

45.4%

44.9%

Biden
by 0.5%

2020-03-14
2020-03-16

2020-03-16
2020-03-17 16:18

2020-03-09 12:00

Univision w/Lean [2]

45.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-03-06
2020-03-12

2020-03-16
2020-03-16 18:33

2020-03-09 12:00

Univision wo/Lean [2]

38.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-03-06
2020-03-12

2020-03-16
2020-03-16 18:31

2020-03-06 12:00

FAU BEPI

49.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-03-05
2020-03-07

2020-03-10
2020-03-10 16:21

2020-02-20 00:00

Saint Leo

51.2%

40.3%

Biden
by 10.9%

2020-02-17
2020-02-22

2020-03-02
2020-03-03 06:17

2020-02-14 12:00

UNF

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-02-10
2020-02-18

2020-02-19
2020-02-20 04:55

2020-01-11 00:00

FAU BEPI

51.0%

49.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-01-09
2020-01-12

2020-01-15
2020-01-15 18:57

2020-01-08 00:00

Cherry

45.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-01-03
2020-01-12

2020-01-21
2020-01-22 00:50

2019-12-14 00:00

Mason-Dixon

47.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2019-12-11
2019-12-16

2019-12-31
2019-12-31 18:21

2019-11-03 12:00

Civiqs

45.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2019-11-03
2019-11-03

2019-11-05
2019-11-06 02:07

2019-10-20 00:00

NYT/Sienna LV [2]

46.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2019-10-13
2019-10-26

2019-11-04
2019-11-04 20:27

2019-10-20 00:00

NYT/Sienna RV [2]

46.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2019-10-13
2019-10-26

2019-11-04
2019-11-04 20:25

2019-10-17 12:00

UNF

48.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2019-10-14
2019-10-20

2019-10-22
2019-10-24 06:55

2019-09-14 00:00

FAU BEPI

49.5%

50.5%

Trump
by 1.0%

2019-09-12
2019-09-15

2019-09-18
2019-09-18 19:30

2019-06-16 00:00

St. Pete

47.3%

46.8%

Biden
by 0.5%

2019-06-15
2019-06-16

2019-06-19
2019-06-19 22:26

2019-06-15 00:00

Quinnipiac

50.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2019-06-12
2019-06-17

2019-06-18
2019-06-19 22:04

2019-05-18 00:00

FAU BEPI

50.0%

50.0%

TIED

2019-05-16
2019-05-19

2109-05-22
2019-05-22 18:57

2019-04-29 00:00

WPA Intelligence

44.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2019-04-27
2019-04-30

2019-05-11
2019-05-12 07:08

2019-03-22 00:00

Trump Internal (NBC) [2]

55.8%

44.3%

Biden
by 11.5%

2019-03-15
2019-03-28

2019-06-16
2019-06-16 17:43

2019-03-22 00:00

Trump Internal (ABC) [2]

53.5%

46.5%

Biden
by 7.0%

2019-03-15
2019-03-28

2019-06-14
2019-06-16 17:38

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

47.8%

49.0%

REP
by 1.2%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 06:21

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

50.0%

49.1%

DEM
by 0.9%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:08

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

51.0%

48.2%

DEM
by 2.8%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-22 10:48

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

47.1%

52.1%

REP
by 5.0%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 01:26

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

48.8%

48.9%

REP
by 0.0%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-09 05:52

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

48.0%

42.3%

DEM
by 5.7%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 08:31

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

39.0%

40.9%

REP
by 1.9%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:16

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

38.5%

60.9%

REP
by 22.4%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 05:14

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

34.7%

65.3%

REP
by 30.7%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:24

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

38.5%

55.5%

REP
by 17.0%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:24

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Tip Jar.

 

The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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