2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Pennsylvania [20 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-16 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-10-19 23:48 UTC

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-16 12:00

Ipsos w/5P [2]

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-13
2020-10-19

2020-10-19
2020-10-19 23:48

2020-10-16 12:00

Ipsos [2]

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-13
2020-10-19

2020-10-19
2020-10-19 23:19

2020-10-14 12:00

Trafalgar w/3P

47.5%

46.4%

Biden
by 1.1%

2020-10-13
2020-10-15

2020-10-19
2020-10-19 22:35

2020-10-14 00:00

HarrisX

51.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-12
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-16 23:43

2020-10-13 00:00

Insider Advantage w/3P

45.8%

42.6%

Biden
by 3.2%

2020-10-12
2020-10-13

2020-10-15
2020-10-15 18:19

2020-10-11 12:00

Trafalgar w/3P

47.4%

45.1%

Biden
by 2.3%

2020-10-10
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-13 19:30

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-10 00:00

Civiqs

52.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-10-08
2020-10-11

2020-10-15
2020-10-15 20:00

2020-10-10 00:00

RMG w/Strong D Turnout w/3P [3]

50.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-10-07
2020-10-12

2020-10-14
2020-10-15 02:19

2020-10-10 00:00

RMG w/Strong R Turnout w/3P [3]

47.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-07
2020-10-12

2020-10-14
2020-10-15 02:02

2020-10-10 00:00

RMG w/3P [3]

49.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-07
2020-10-12

2020-10-14
2020-10-15 01:42

2020-10-09 00:00

Ipsos w/5P [2]

51.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-06
2020-10-11

2020-10-12
2020-10-13 03:42

2020-10-09 00:00

Ipsos [2]

51.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-10-06
2020-10-11

2020-10-12
2020-10-12 21:44

2020-10-07 12:00

Whitman Insight Total [2]

51.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-05
2020-10-09

2020-10-12
2020-10-12 17:42

2020-10-07 12:00

Whitman Insight Strong [2]

49.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-05
2020-10-09

2020-10-12
2020-10-12 17:21

2020-10-07 00:00

Morning Consult

52.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-10-02
2020-10-11

2020-10-13
2020-10-13 18:40

2020-10-05 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

49.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-10-04
2020-10-06

2020-10-09
2020-10-09 19:12

2020-10-05 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

50.8%

47.4%

Biden
by 3.4%

2020-10-04
2020-10-05

2020-10-06
2020-10-08 03:43

2020-10-05 00:00

Emerson [2]

50.1%

45.4%

Biden
by 4.7%

2020-10-04
2020-10-05

2020-10-06
2020-10-08 03:41

2020-10-04 12:00

Baldwin Wallace w/4P

49.6%

44.5%

Biden
by 5.1%

2020-09-30
2020-10-08

2020-10-11
2020-10-11 06:16

2020-10-03 12:00

Quinnipiac

54.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-10-01
2020-10-05

2020-10-07
2020-10-08 23:52

2020-10-03 12:00

Change Research

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-02
2020-10-04

2020-10-06
2020-10-07 17:48

2020-10-02 12:00

Monmouth Low Turnout [3]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-04

2020-10-06
2020-10-07 07:43

2020-10-02 12:00

Monmouth High Turnout [3]

54.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-04

2020-10-06
2020-10-07 07:41

2020-10-02 12:00

Monmouth RV w/3P [3]

54.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-04

2020-10-06
2020-10-07 07:38

2020-10-02 12:00

Ipsos

50.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-05

2020-10-05
2020-10-06 17:12

2020-10-01 12:00

YouGov

51.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-02

2020-10-04
2020-10-04 20:37

2020-10-01 12:00

Siena w/3P

49.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-02

2020-10-03
2020-10-04 04:31

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

52.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 21:56

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 08:27

2020-09-26 12:00

Siena

49.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-09-25
2020-09-27

2020-09-28
2020-09-28 22:29

2020-09-25 12:00

TIPP LV [2]

49.7%

44.7%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-24
2020-09-26

2020-09-27
2020-09-28 04:10

2020-09-25 12:00

TIPP RV [2]

48.9%

43.6%

Biden
by 5.3%

2020-09-24
2020-09-26

2020-09-27
2020-09-28 04:09

2020-09-24 12:00

Redfield and Wilton w/4P

50.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-23
2020-09-25

2020-10-02
2020-10-02 22:42

2020-09-24 00:00

ABC/WaPo [2]

54.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-09-21
2020-09-26

2020-09-29
2020-09-29 04:14

2020-09-24 00:00

ABC/WaPo [2]

54.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-09-21
2020-09-26

2020-09-29
2020-09-29 04:12

2020-09-22 00:00

Fox News RV w/3P [2]

51.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-20
2020-09-23

2020-09-23
2020-09-27 09:04

2020-09-22 00:00

Fox News LV w/3P [2]

51.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-09-20
2020-09-23

2020-09-23
2020-09-27 08:50

2020-09-20 00:00

Trafalgar w/4P

48.1%

45.9%

Biden
by 2.2%

2020-09-18
2020-09-21

2020-09-24
2020-09-27 16:48

2020-09-19 12:00

Change Research

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-09-18
2020-09-20

2020-09-23
2020-09-23 17:03

2020-09-18 12:00

Hart Research

53.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-09-17
2020-09-19

2020-09-24
2020-09-27 16:31

2020-09-17 12:00

Franklin & Marshall RV [2]

49.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-09-14
2020-09-20

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 04:09

2020-09-17 12:00

Franklin & Marshall LV [2]

48.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-14
2020-09-20

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 04:05

2020-09-16 12:00

CPEC

50.3%

45.4%

Biden
by 4.9%

2020-09-15
2020-09-17

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 03:58

2020-09-16 12:00

Trafalgar w/4P

47.3%

44.9%

Biden
by 2.4%

2020-09-15
2020-09-17

2020-09-20
2020-09-20 18:22

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

52.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 04:26

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-03 17:59

2020-09-16 00:00

YouGov LV [2]

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-09-10
2020-09-21

2020-09-23
2020-09-26 23:48

2020-09-16 00:00

YouGov RV [2]

49.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-10
2020-09-21

2020-09-23
2020-09-26 23:37

2020-09-15 12:00

Baldwin Wallace

47.3%

44.6%

Biden
by 2.7%

2020-09-08
2020-09-22

2020-09-23
2020-09-23 18:50

2020-09-14 00:00

Ipsos

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-11
2020-09-16

2020-09-21
2020-09-21 20:51

2020-09-13 12:00

Civiqs

52.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-09-11
2020-09-15

2020-09-18
2020-09-18 22:25

2020-09-13 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

49.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-12
2020-09-14

2020-09-18
2020-09-18 18:25

2020-09-10 00:00

Climate Nexus

48.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-08
2020-09-11

2020-09-19
2020-09-20 02:21

2020-09-05 12:00

Change Research

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-09-04
2020-09-06

2020-09-09
2020-09-09 16:30

2020-09-05 00:00

TargetSmart w/Lean [2]

51.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-09-03
2020-09-06

2020-09-10
2020-09-10 23:12

2020-09-05 00:00

TargetSmart [2]

51.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-03
2020-09-06

2020-09-10
2020-09-10 22:50

2020-09-04 00:00

Marist LV [2]

53.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-08-31
2020-09-07

2020-09-09
2020-09-09 18:04

2020-09-04 00:00

Marist RV [2]

52.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-08-31
2020-09-07

2020-09-09
2020-09-09 17:42

2020-09-03 00:00

Benenson

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-08-28
2020-09-08

2020-09-10
2020-09-10 16:25

2020-09-03 00:00

Morning Consult

50.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-08-29
2020-09-07

2020-09-09
2020-09-09 17:27

2020-09-01 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

48.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-08-30
2020-09-03

2020-09-08
2020-09-08 20:06

2020-08-31 00:00

Susquehanna Total [2]

44.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-08-26
2020-09-04

2020-09-08
2020-09-08 15:51

2020-08-31 00:00

Susquehanna Definitely [2]

41.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-08-26
2020-09-04

2020-09-08
2020-09-08 15:40

2020-08-30 12:00

Quinnipiac

52.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-08-28
2020-09-01

2020-09-03
2020-09-03 21:06

2020-08-30 00:00

Monmouth Low Turnout [3]

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-08-28
2020-08-31

2020-09-02
2020-09-02 16:02

2020-08-30 00:00

Monmouth High Turnout [3]

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-08-28
2020-08-31

2020-09-02
2020-09-02 16:00

2020-08-30 00:00

Monmouth RV w/4P [3]

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-08-28
2020-08-31

2020-09-02
2020-09-02 15:57

2020-08-29 12:00

ALG Research

50.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-08-26
2020-09-01

2020-10-01
2020-10-01 15:40

2020-08-29 00:00

Hodas Total [2]

50.3%

44.6%

Biden
by 5.7%

2020-08-26
2020-08-31

2020-09-04
2020-09-04 22:22

2020-08-29 00:00

Hodas Definitely [2]

41.1%

43.5%

Trump
by 2.4%

2020-08-26
2020-08-31

2020-09-04
2020-09-04 22:12

2020-08-26 12:00

Rassmussen

46.0%

46.0%

TIED

2020-08-25
2020-08-27

2020-09-03
2020-09-03 20:47

2020-08-26 00:00

Morning Consult

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-08-21
2020-08-30

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 16:53

2020-08-22 12:00

GQR

52.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-08-20
2020-08-24

2020-08-27
2020-08-31 18:13

2020-08-22 12:00

Change Research

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-08-21
2020-08-23

2020-08-26
2020-08-26 16:02

2020-08-20 12:00

Franklin & Marshall

49.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-08-17
2020-08-23

2020-08-27
2020-08-28 03:57

2020-08-17 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

48.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-08-16
2020-08-17

2020-08-21
2020-08-21 23:33

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 04:23

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

52.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-26 17:48

2020-08-16 12:00

GSG [2]

53.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-08-13
2020-08-19

2020-08-31
2020-08-31 18:11

2020-08-16 12:00

GSG w/4P [2]

50.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-08-13
2020-08-19

2020-08-31
2020-08-31 18:08

2020-08-15 12:00

Civiqs

51.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-08-13
2020-08-17

2020-08-21
2020-08-21 22:03

2020-08-14 12:00

Muhlenberg

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-08-11
2020-08-17

2020-08-20
2020-08-20 17:54

2020-08-12 00:00

Morning Consult

50.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-08-07
2020-08-16

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 16:52

2020-08-09 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

53.3%

46.7%

Biden
by 6.6%

2020-08-08
2020-08-10

2020-08-11
2020-08-12 03:05

2020-08-09 12:00

Emerson [2]

51.9%

42.8%

Biden
by 9.1%

2020-08-08
2020-08-10

2020-08-11
2020-08-12 03:03

2020-08-08 12:00

Change Research

48.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-08-07
2020-08-09

2020-08-12
2020-08-12 18:37

2020-08-06 00:00

YouGov

49.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-08-04
2020-08-07

2020-08-09
2020-08-09 18:33

2020-08-03 12:00

OnMessage

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-08-02
2020-08-04

2020-08-18
2020-08-19 03:23

2020-08-01 12:00

YouGov LV [2]

52.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-07-27
2020-08-06

2020-08-10
2020-08-10 15:42

2020-08-01 12:00

YouGov RV [2]

50.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-07-27
2020-08-06

2020-08-10
2020-08-10 14:40

2020-07-25 12:00

Change Research

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-07-24
2020-07-26

2020-07-29
2020-07-29 18:31

2020-07-23 12:00

Franklin & Marshall

50.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-07-20
2020-07-26

2020-07-30
2020-07-31 06:58

2020-07-23 12:00

Gravis

48.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-07-22
2020-07-24

2020-07-25
2020-07-25 18:54

2020-07-22 12:00

Zogby w/4P

44.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-07-21
2020-07-23

2020-08-05
2020-08-05 17:37

2020-07-22 00:00

Morning Consult

50.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-07-17
2020-07-26

2020-07-28
2020-07-28 07:09

2020-07-20 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

48.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-07-19
2020-07-21

2020-07-30
2020-07-31 06:07

2020-07-20 00:00

Hodas Total [2]

49.7%

44.3%

Biden
by 5.3%

2020-07-17
2020-07-22

2020-08-05
2020-08-05 17:18

2020-07-20 00:00

Hodas Definitely [2]

43.8%

41.7%

Biden
by 2.2%

2020-07-17
2020-07-22

2020-08-05
2020-08-05 17:16

2020-07-19 12:00

Fox News

50.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-07-18
2020-07-20

2020-07-23
2020-07-23 22:21

2020-07-18 00:00

Spry

47.0%

47.8%

Trump
by 0.7%

2020-07-15
2020-07-20

2020-07-22
2020-07-23 19:35

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

50.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 04:21

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

51.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 15:15

2020-07-16 00:00

Rasmussen w/Lean [2]

51.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-07-15
2020-07-16

2020-07-21
2020-07-22 17:10

2020-07-16 00:00

Rasmussen [2]

48.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-07-15
2020-07-16

2020-07-21
2020-07-22 17:05

2020-07-11 12:00

Monmouth Low Turnout [3]

51.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-07-09
2020-07-13

2020-07-15
2020-07-15 17:51

2020-07-11 12:00

Monmouth High Turnout [3]

52.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-07-09
2020-07-13

2020-07-15
2020-07-15 17:49

2020-07-11 12:00

Monmouth RV [3]

53.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-07-09
2020-07-13

2020-07-15
2020-07-15 17:47

2020-07-11 12:00

Change Research

50.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-07-10
2020-07-12

2020-07-15
2020-07-15 17:43

2020-07-01 00:00

Trafalgar

48.0%

42.7%

Biden
by 5.3%

2020-06-29
2020-07-02

2020-07-06
2020-07-06 17:47

2020-06-27 12:00

Change Research

50.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-06-26
2020-06-28

2020-07-01
2020-07-01 18:24

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

50.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 04:17

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

51.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 19:20

2020-06-19 12:00

Susquehanna

48.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-06-15
2020-06-23

2020-06-29
2020-06-30 04:55

2020-06-15 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

49.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-06-14
2020-06-16

2020-06-25
2020-06-25 16:17

2020-06-13 12:00

Change Research

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-06-12
2020-06-14

2020-06-17
2020-06-18 04:05

2020-06-12 12:00

Siena

50.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-16

2020-06-25
2020-06-25 15:41

2020-06-10 00:00

Hodas Total [2]

53.5%

41.8%

Biden
by 11.7%

2020-06-08
2020-06-11

2020-06-25
2020-06-25 15:31

2020-06-10 00:00

Hodas Definitely [2]

48.5%

39.0%

Biden
by 9.5%

2020-06-08
2020-06-11

2020-06-25
2020-06-25 15:30

2020-05-30 12:00

Change Research

46.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-05-29
2020-05-31

2020-06-03
2020-06-03 18:27

2020-05-22 00:00

Morning Consult

48.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-05-17
2020-05-26

2020-07-28
2020-07-29 18:10

2020-05-12 12:00

Redfield & Wilton

48.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-05-10
2020-05-14

2020-05-21
2020-05-21 23:54

2020-05-11 12:00

Restoration PAC w/Lean [3]

46.0%

50.5%

Trump
by 4.5%

2020-05-09
2020-05-13

2020-05-21
2020-05-21 23:41

2020-05-11 12:00

Restoration PAC w/Probably [3]

45.5%

50.2%

Trump
by 4.7%

2020-05-09
2020-05-13

2020-05-21
2020-05-21 23:38

2020-05-11 12:00

Restoration PAC Definitely [3]

43.0%

47.7%

Trump
by 4.7%

2020-05-09
2020-05-13

2020-05-21
2020-05-21 23:36

2020-04-24 00:00

Harper Total [2]

49.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-04-21
2020-04-26

2020-05-01
2020-05-01 17:43

2020-04-24 00:00

Harper Definitely [2]

40.0%

34.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-04-21
2020-04-26

2020-05-01
2020-05-01 17:39

2020-04-21 00:00

PPP

51.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-04-20
2020-04-21

2020-04-23
2020-04-23 19:47

2020-04-20 00:00

Fox News

50.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-04-18
2020-04-21

2020-04-22
2020-04-22 23:05

2020-04-18 00:00

Ipsos

46.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-04-15
2020-04-20

2020-04-22
2020-04-22 23:36

2020-04-17 12:00

Restoration PAC

46.7%

46.7%

TIED

2020-04-16
2020-04-18

2020-04-24
2020-04-24 16:05

2020-04-17 12:00

Susquehanna Total [2]

48.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-04-14
2020-04-20

2020-04-23
2020-04-23 19:20

2020-04-17 12:00

Susquehanna Definitely [2]

40.0%

37.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-04-14
2020-04-20

2020-04-23
2020-04-23 19:16

2020-03-21 12:00

Baldwin Wallace w/Probably [2]

44.5%

46.5%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-03-17
2020-03-25

2020-03-26
2020-03-26 16:42

2020-03-21 12:00

Baldwin Wallace Definitely [2]

30.3%

37.4%

Trump
by 7.1%

2020-03-17
2020-03-25

2020-03-26
2020-03-26 16:38

2020-03-20 12:00

Restoration PAC

45.3%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.7%

2020-03-19
2020-03-21

2020-03-27
2020-03-27 18:21

2020-03-07 12:00

YouGov

46.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-03-06
2020-03-08

2020-03-09
2020-03-09 19:36

2020-03-06 12:00

Firehouse

44.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-03-05
2020-03-07

2020-03-08
2020-03-09 15:17

2020-02-16 12:00

Muhlenberg

47.0%

47.0%

TIED

2020-02-12
2020-02-20

2020-02-27
2020-02-27 20:48

2020-02-16 00:00

YouGov

46.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-02-11
2020-02-20

2020-02-23
2020-02-23 15:59

2020-02-15 12:00

Quinnipiac

50.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-02-12
2020-02-18

2020-02-20
2020-02-20 18:38

2020-02-12 12:00

Expedition

47.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-02-06
2020-02-18

2020-02-24
2020-03-07 16:01

2019-12-04 12:00

Firehouse

41.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2019-12-03
2019-12-05

2019-12-08
2019-12-09 20:16

2019-11-07 00:00

Muhlenberg

52.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2019-11-04
2019-11-09

2019-11-14
2019-11-14 18:40

2019-11-03 12:00

Civiqs

48.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2019-11-03
2019-11-03

2019-11-05
2019-11-06 01:44

2019-10-19 12:00

NYT/Sienna LV [2]

46.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2019-10-13
2019-10-25

2019-11-04
2019-11-04 20:15

2019-10-19 12:00

NYT/Sienna RV [2]

47.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2019-10-13
2019-10-25

2019-11-04
2019-11-04 20:13

2019-09-08 12:00

Firehouse

45.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2019-09-07
2019-09-09

2019-09-12
2019-09-13 06:10

2019-06-12 12:00

Firehouse

43.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2019-06-11
2019-06-13

2019-06-16
2019-06-19 21:54

2019-05-12 00:00

Quinnipiac

53.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2019-05-09
2019-05-14

2019-05-15
2019-05-15 17:55

2019-04-29 00:00

WPA Intelligence

46.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2019-04-27
2019-04-30

2019-05-11
2019-05-12 07:48

2019-03-27 12:00

Emerson

54.8%

45.2%

Biden
by 9.6%

2019-03-26
2019-03-28

2019-03-28
2019-03-29 04:16

2019-03-22 00:00

Trump Internal (NBC) [2]

55.8%

44.3%

Biden
by 11.5%

2019-03-15
2019-03-28

2019-06-16
2019-06-16 17:27

2019-03-22 00:00

Trump Internal (ABC) [2]

55.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2019-03-15
2019-03-28

2019-06-14
2019-06-16 17:25

2019-03-20 12:00

Firehouse

50.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2019-03-19
2019-03-21

2019-03-23
2019-03-27 03:18

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

47.5%

48.2%

REP
by 0.7%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 04:57

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

52.0%

46.6%

DEM
by 5.4%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:08

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

54.5%

44.2%

DEM
by 10.3%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-05 08:39

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

50.9%

48.4%

DEM
by 2.5%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:04

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

50.6%

46.4%

DEM
by 4.2%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:47

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

49.2%

40.0%

DEM
by 9.2%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 19:43

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

45.2%

36.1%

DEM
by 9.0%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:41

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

48.4%

50.7%

REP
by 2.3%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:47

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

46.0%

53.3%

REP
by 7.4%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:55

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

42.5%

49.6%

REP
by 7.1%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:10

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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