2020 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - New Mexico [5 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-27 00:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:39 UTC
Leaders: Biden vs Trump Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Warren vs Trump Sanders vs Trump Buttigieg vs Trump Harris vs Trump Bloomberg vs Trump || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-10-27 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-10-20 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:39
2020-10-27 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-10-20 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:39
2020-10-26 12:00
Research & Polling
54.0%
42.0%
Biden by 12.0%
2020-10-23 2020-10-29
2020-10-31 2020-11-01 10:37
2020-10-26 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-10-19 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 14:45
2020-10-26 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
56.0%
42.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-10-19 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 14:45
2020-10-24 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
55.0%
43.0%
Biden by 12.0%
2020-10-17 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-03 14:45
2020-10-24 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
55.0%
43.0%
Biden by 12.0%
2020-10-17 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-03 14:45
2020-10-23 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
55.0%
43.0%
Biden by 12.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 2020-11-01 11:22
2020-10-23 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
55.0%
43.0%
Biden by 12.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 2020-11-01 11:22
2020-10-22 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
56.0%
43.0%
Biden by 13.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-29
2020-10-30 2020-11-01 11:22
2020-10-22 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
55.0%
43.0%
Biden by 12.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-29
2020-10-30 2020-11-01 11:22
2020-10-16 00:00
GBAO
54.0%
41.0%
Biden by 13.0%
2020-10-14 2020-10-17
2020-10-20 2020-10-21 06:18
2020-10-14 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
52.0%
46.0%
Biden by 6.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-11-01 11:22
2020-10-14 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
52.0%
46.0%
Biden by 6.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-11-01 11:22
2020-10-13 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
53.0%
45.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2020-09-29 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-28 21:40
2020-10-13 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
53.0%
45.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2020-09-29 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-28 21:40
2020-10-11 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
53.0%
45.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2020-09-27 2020-10-25
2020-10-26 2020-10-28 21:40
2020-10-11 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
53.0%
45.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2020-09-27 2020-10-25
2020-10-26 2020-10-28 21:40
2020-10-10 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
53.0%
45.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-24
2020-10-25 2020-10-28 21:40
2020-10-10 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
53.0%
45.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-24
2020-10-25 2020-10-28 21:40
2020-10-10 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
53.0%
45.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 2020-10-28 21:40
2020-10-10 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
53.0%
45.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 2020-10-28 21:40
2020-10-09 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
53.0%
46.0%
Biden by 7.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-22
2020-10-23 2020-10-24 22:32
2020-10-09 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
53.0%
46.0%
Biden by 7.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-22
2020-10-23 2020-10-24 22:32
2020-10-08 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
53.0%
46.0%
Biden by 7.0%
2020-09-24 2020-10-21
2020-10-22 2020-10-24 22:32
2020-10-08 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
52.0%
46.0%
Biden by 6.0%
2020-09-24 2020-10-21
2020-10-22 2020-10-24 22:32
2020-10-07 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
53.0%
45.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2020-09-23 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-24 22:32
2020-10-07 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
53.0%
45.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2020-09-23 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-24 22:32
2020-10-05 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
53.0%
45.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-19
2020-10-20 2020-10-24 22:32
2020-10-05 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
53.0%
46.0%
Biden by 7.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-19
2020-10-20 2020-10-24 22:32
2020-10-05 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
53.0%
45.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-18
2020-10-19 2020-10-24 22:32
2020-10-05 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
53.0%
45.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-18
2020-10-19 2020-10-24 22:32
2020-10-04 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
53.0%
46.0%
Biden by 7.0%
2020-09-20 2020-10-17
2020-10-18 2020-10-24 22:32
2020-10-04 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
53.0%
45.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2020-09-20 2020-10-17
2020-10-18 2020-10-24 22:32
2020-10-02 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
52.0%
46.0%
Biden by 6.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-16
2020-10-17 2020-10-24 22:32
2020-10-02 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
52.0%
47.0%
Biden by 5.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-16
2020-10-17 2020-10-24 22:32
2020-10-02 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
53.0%
46.0%
Biden by 7.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-15
2020-10-16 2020-10-24 22:32
2020-10-02 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
53.0%
45.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-15
2020-10-16 2020-10-24 22:32
2020-10-01 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
52.0%
46.0%
Biden by 6.0%
2020-09-17 2020-10-14
2020-10-15 2020-10-23 17:59
2020-10-01 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
52.0%
46.0%
Biden by 6.0%
2020-09-17 2020-10-14
2020-10-15 2020-10-23 05:20
2020-10-01 00:00
PPP w/3P
53.0%
39.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-01
2020-10-06 2020-10-06 21:54
2020-09-29 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
53.0%
45.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-22 20:01
2020-09-29 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
53.0%
45.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-21 21:42
2020-09-29 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
53.0%
46.0%
Biden by 7.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-12
2020-10-13 2020-10-18 20:11
2020-09-29 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
52.0%
45.0%
Biden by 7.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-12
2020-10-13 2020-10-18 07:30
2020-09-16 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
54.0%
43.0%
Biden by 11.0%
2020-09-01 2020-09-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-05 05:04
2020-09-16 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
54.0%
44.0%
Biden by 10.0%
2020-09-01 2020-09-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-03 21:33
2020-08-30 00:00
Research & Polling Inc
54.0%
39.0%
Biden by 15.0%
2020-08-26 2020-09-02
2020-09-06 2020-09-06 19:25
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-08-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
56.0%
43.0%
Biden by 13.0%
2020-08-01 2020-08-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-05 05:02
2020-08-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
55.0%
42.0%
Biden by 13.0%
2020-08-01 2020-08-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-05 05:00
2020-07-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
49.0%
48.0%
Biden by 1.0%
2020-07-01 2020-07-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-05 04:58
2020-07-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
49.0%
48.0%
Biden by 1.0%
2020-07-01 2020-07-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-05 04:56
2020-06-19 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
49.0%
50.0%
Trump by 1.0%
2020-06-08 2020-06-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-05 04:51
2020-06-19 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
51.0%
48.0%
Biden by 3.0%
2020-06-08 2020-06-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-05 04:49
2020-06-13 00:00
PPP
53.0%
39.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2020-06-12 2020-06-13
2020-06-16 2020-06-16 15:35
2020-04-21 00:00
PPP
52.0%
40.0%
Biden by 12.0%
2020-04-20 2020-04-21
2020-04-24 2020-04-24 16:09
2020-01-05 00:00
Emerson
54.3%
45.7%
Biden by 8.6%
2020-01-03 2020-01-06
2020-12-06 2020-01-07 00:24
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
48.3%
40.0%
DEM by 8.2%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-20 04:02
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
53.0%
42.8%
DEM by 10.2%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:49
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
56.9%
41.8%
DEM by 15.1%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-09-30 03:33
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
49.1%
49.8%
REP by 0.8%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:55
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
47.9%
47.9%
DEM by 0.1%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:33
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
49.2%
41.9%
DEM by 7.3%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-16 17:26
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
45.9%
37.3%
DEM by 8.6%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:25
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
46.9%
51.9%
REP by 5.0%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:26
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
39.2%
59.7%
REP by 20.5%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-24 06:40
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
36.8%
55.0%
REP by 18.2%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 18:58
Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races .
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin ".
Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here .
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