2020 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - California [55 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-30 12:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:24 UTC
Leaders: Biden vs Trump Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Warren vs Trump Sanders vs Trump Buttigieg vs Trump Harris vs Trump Bloomberg vs Trump || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-10-30 12:00
David Binder Research
62.0%
31.0%
Biden by 31.0%
2020-10-28 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 01:03
2020-10-27 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-10-20 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:24
2020-10-27 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
62.0%
35.0%
Biden by 27.0%
2020-10-20 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:24
2020-10-26 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-10-19 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 14:05
2020-10-26 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-10-19 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 14:05
2020-10-25 00:00
Swayable w/4P
62.0%
35.3%
Biden by 26.7%
2020-10-23 2020-10-26
2020-10-28 2020-10-30 20:45
2020-10-24 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-10-17 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-03 14:05
2020-10-24 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-10-17 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-03 14:05
2020-10-23 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 2020-10-31 22:11
2020-10-23 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 2020-10-31 22:11
2020-10-22 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-29
2020-10-30 2020-10-31 22:11
2020-10-22 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-29
2020-10-30 2020-10-31 22:11
2020-10-19 00:00
UC Berkeley
65.0%
29.0%
Biden by 36.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-21
2020-10-27 2020-10-27 17:41
2020-10-14 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
61.0%
36.0%
Biden by 25.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-10-31 22:11
2020-10-14 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
61.0%
37.0%
Biden by 24.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-10-31 22:11
2020-10-14 00:00
PPIC w/4P
58.0%
32.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-10-09 2020-10-18
2020-10-22 2020-10-22 15:08
2020-10-13 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
61.0%
36.0%
Biden by 25.0%
2020-09-29 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-28 20:26
2020-10-13 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
61.0%
37.0%
Biden by 24.0%
2020-09-29 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-28 20:26
2020-10-11 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
62.0%
35.0%
Biden by 27.0%
2020-09-27 2020-10-25
2020-10-26 2020-10-28 20:26
2020-10-11 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-09-27 2020-10-25
2020-10-26 2020-10-28 20:26
2020-10-10 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-24
2020-10-25 2020-10-28 20:26
2020-10-10 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
62.0%
35.0%
Biden by 27.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-24
2020-10-25 2020-10-28 20:26
2020-10-10 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 2020-10-28 20:26
2020-10-10 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 2020-10-28 20:26
2020-10-09 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
62.0%
35.0%
Biden by 27.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-22
2020-10-23 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-09 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-22
2020-10-23 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-08 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
62.0%
35.0%
Biden by 27.0%
2020-09-24 2020-10-21
2020-10-22 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-08 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-09-24 2020-10-21
2020-10-22 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-07 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
62.0%
35.0%
Biden by 27.0%
2020-09-23 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-07 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-09-23 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-05 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-19
2020-10-20 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-05 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
62.0%
35.0%
Biden by 27.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-19
2020-10-20 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-05 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
63.0%
36.0%
Biden by 27.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-18
2020-10-19 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-05 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
63.0%
35.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-18
2020-10-19 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-04 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
63.0%
35.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-20 2020-10-17
2020-10-18 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-04 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
63.0%
35.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-20 2020-10-17
2020-10-18 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-02 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
63.0%
35.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-16
2020-10-17 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-02 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
63.0%
35.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-16
2020-10-17 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-02 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
62.0%
35.0%
Biden by 27.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-15
2020-10-16 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-02 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-15
2020-10-16 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-01 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
63.0%
36.0%
Biden by 27.0%
2020-09-17 2020-10-14
2020-10-15 2020-10-23 17:42
2020-10-01 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
63.0%
35.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-17 2020-10-14
2020-10-15 2020-10-23 04:30
2020-09-29 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-22 19:49
2020-09-29 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
63.0%
35.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-21 21:26
2020-09-29 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
63.0%
36.0%
Biden by 27.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-12
2020-10-13 2020-10-18 19:48
2020-09-29 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
63.0%
35.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-12
2020-10-13 2020-10-18 03:43
2020-09-27 12:00
SurveyUSA
59.0%
32.0%
Biden by 27.0%
2020-09-26 2020-09-28
2020-09-29 2020-09-30 15:34
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-09-20 12:00
Redfield & Wilton w/4P
62.0%
28.0%
Biden by 34.0%
2020-09-19 2020-09-21
2020-09-27 2020-09-28 03:53
2020-09-16 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
63.0%
34.0%
Biden by 29.0%
2020-09-01 2020-09-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-08 15:56
2020-09-16 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
63.0%
35.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-01 2020-09-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-03 23:17
2020-09-12 12:00
UC Berkeley
67.0%
28.0%
Biden by 39.0%
2020-09-09 2020-09-15
2020-09-24 2020-09-27 09:45
2020-09-09 00:00
PPIC w/4P
60.0%
31.0%
Biden by 29.0%
2020-09-04 2020-09-13
2020-09-17 2020-09-17 04:50
2020-08-31 00:00
Spry
56.2%
39.0%
Biden by 17.2%
2020-08-29 2020-09-01
2020-09-07 2020-09-08 03:38
2020-08-23 12:00
David Binder Research
61.0%
31.0%
Biden by 30.0%
2020-08-22 2020-08-24
2020-08-26 2020-09-17 03:43
2020-08-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
63.0%
35.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-08-01 2020-08-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-08 15:54
2020-08-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
63.0%
33.0%
Biden by 30.0%
2020-08-01 2020-08-31
2020-09-23 2020-09-25 16:52
2020-08-12 12:00
SurveyUSA
56.0%
28.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-08-12 2020-08-12
2020-08-12 2020-08-13 16:47
2020-08-09 12:00
Redfield & Wilton w/4P
61.0%
25.0%
Biden by 36.0%
2020-08-09 2020-08-09
2020-08-14 2020-08-15 00:10
2020-07-24 12:00
UC Berkeley
67.0%
28.0%
Biden by 39.0%
2020-07-21 2020-07-27
2020-08-04 2020-08-05 16:54
2020-07-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
63.0%
35.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-07-01 2020-07-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-08 15:52
2020-07-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
64.0%
34.0%
Biden by 30.0%
2020-07-01 2020-07-31
2020-09-23 2020-09-25 02:21
2020-06-19 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-06-08 2020-06-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-08 15:49
2020-06-19 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
63.0%
34.0%
Biden by 29.0%
2020-06-08 2020-06-30
2020-09-23 2020-09-24 15:25
2020-05-22 00:00
PPIC
57.0%
33.0%
Biden by 24.0%
2020-05-17 2020-05-26
2020-06-04 2020-06-05 04:34
2020-05-19 00:00
SurveyUSA
58.0%
30.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-05-18 2020-05-19
2020-05-20 2020-05-21 02:39
2020-05-09 12:00
Emerson w/Lean [2]
65.2%
34.8%
Biden by 30.4%
2020-05-08 2020-05-10
2020-05-11 2020-05-11 22:54
2020-05-09 12:00
Emerson [2]
59.2%
29.0%
Biden by 30.2%
2020-05-08 2020-05-10
2020-05-11 2020-05-11 22:50
2020-03-29 00:00
PPP
67.0%
29.0%
Biden by 38.0%
2020-03-28 2020-03-29
2020-04-01 2020-04-01 17:28
2020-02-28 00:00
AtlasIntel
62.1%
26.2%
Biden by 35.9%
2020-02-24 2020-03-02
2020-03-02 2020-03-03 07:37
2020-02-27 12:00
YouGov
59.0%
31.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-02-26 2020-02-28
2020-03-02 2020-03-03 07:08
2020-02-24 12:00
CNN
60.0%
35.0%
Biden by 25.0%
2020-02-22 2020-02-26
2020-02-28 2020-02-29 00:07
2020-02-23 00:00
UC Berkeley
57.8%
30.9%
Biden by 26.9%
2020-02-20 2020-02-25
2020-02-28 2020-02-28 23:26
2020-02-15 00:00
SurveyUSA
57.0%
37.0%
Biden by 20.0%
2020-02-13 2020-02-16
2020-02-19 2020-02-19 23:38
2020-02-08 12:00
YouGov
59.9%
30.4%
Biden by 29.5%
2020-02-01 2020-02-15
2020-02-19 2020-02-21 14:19
2020-01-15 12:00
SurveyUSA
59.0%
35.0%
Biden by 24.0%
2020-01-14 2020-01-16
2020-01-21 2020-01-22 05:00
2019-12-06 12:00
CNN
56.0%
36.0%
Biden by 20.0%
2019-12-04 2019-12-08
2019-12-11 2019-12-11 20:08
2019-11-21 12:00
SurveyUSA
59.0%
32.0%
Biden by 27.0%
2019-11-20 2019-11-22
2019-11-27 2019-11-28 17:13
2019-10-16 00:00
SurveyUSA
59.0%
32.0%
Biden by 27.0%
2019-10-15 2019-10-16
2019-10-22 2019-10-24 04:12
2019-09-15 00:00
Emerson
63.8%
36.2%
Biden by 27.6%
2019-09-13 2019-09-16
2019-09-17 2019-09-17 17:20
2019-09-14 12:00
SurveyUSA
57.0%
31.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2019-09-13 2019-09-15
2019-09-18 2019-09-19 06:40
2019-08-03 12:00
SurveyUSA
61.0%
27.0%
Biden by 34.0%
2019-08-01 2019-08-05
2019-08-07 2019-08-08 06:19
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
61.7%
31.6%
DEM by 30.1%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-18 04:52
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
60.2%
37.1%
DEM by 23.1%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-21 23:09
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
61.0%
37.0%
DEM by 24.1%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-09-22 10:41
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
54.3%
44.4%
DEM by 10.0%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-13 23:30
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
53.5%
41.7%
DEM by 11.8%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-05 07:42
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
51.1%
38.2%
DEM by 12.9%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-16 08:15
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
46.0%
32.6%
DEM by 13.4%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:08
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
47.6%
51.1%
REP by 3.6%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 04:02
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
41.3%
57.5%
REP by 16.2%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:01
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
35.9%
52.7%
REP by 16.8%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:16
Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races .
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin ".
Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here .
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