2020 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - California [55 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-30 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:24 UTC

Nominees:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-10-30 12:00	David Binder Research	62.0%	31.0%	Biden by 31.0%	2020-10-28 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 01:03
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:24
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	62.0%	35.0%	Biden by 27.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:24
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 14:05
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 14:05
2020-10-25 00:00	Swayable w/4P	62.0%	35.3%	Biden by 26.7%	2020-10-23 2020-10-26	2020-10-28 2020-10-30 20:45
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 14:05
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 14:05
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-10-31 22:11
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-10-31 22:11
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-10-31 22:11
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-10-31 22:11
2020-10-19 00:00	UC Berkeley	65.0%	29.0%	Biden by 36.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-21	2020-10-27 2020-10-27 17:41
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	61.0%	36.0%	Biden by 25.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-10-31 22:11
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	61.0%	37.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-10-31 22:11
2020-10-14 00:00	PPIC w/4P	58.0%	32.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-10-09 2020-10-18	2020-10-22 2020-10-22 15:08
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	61.0%	36.0%	Biden by 25.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-28 20:26
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	61.0%	37.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-28 20:26
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	62.0%	35.0%	Biden by 27.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-28 20:26
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-28 20:26
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-28 20:26
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	62.0%	35.0%	Biden by 27.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-28 20:26
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-28 20:26
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-28 20:26
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	62.0%	35.0%	Biden by 27.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	62.0%	35.0%	Biden by 27.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	62.0%	35.0%	Biden by 27.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	62.0%	35.0%	Biden by 27.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	63.0%	36.0%	Biden by 27.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	63.0%	35.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	63.0%	35.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	63.0%	35.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	63.0%	35.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	63.0%	35.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	62.0%	35.0%	Biden by 27.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-24 18:17
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	63.0%	36.0%	Biden by 27.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 17:42
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	63.0%	35.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 04:30
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-22 19:49
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	63.0%	35.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-21 21:26
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	63.0%	36.0%	Biden by 27.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 19:48
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	63.0%	35.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 03:43
2020-09-27 12:00	SurveyUSA	59.0%	32.0%	Biden by 27.0%	2020-09-26 2020-09-28	2020-09-29 2020-09-30 15:34

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-09-20 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	62.0%	28.0%	Biden by 34.0%	2020-09-19 2020-09-21	2020-09-27 2020-09-28 03:53
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	63.0%	34.0%	Biden by 29.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 15:56
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	63.0%	35.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-03 23:17
2020-09-12 12:00	UC Berkeley	67.0%	28.0%	Biden by 39.0%	2020-09-09 2020-09-15	2020-09-24 2020-09-27 09:45
2020-09-09 00:00	PPIC w/4P	60.0%	31.0%	Biden by 29.0%	2020-09-04 2020-09-13	2020-09-17 2020-09-17 04:50
2020-08-31 00:00	Spry	56.2%	39.0%	Biden by 17.2%	2020-08-29 2020-09-01	2020-09-07 2020-09-08 03:38
2020-08-23 12:00	David Binder Research	61.0%	31.0%	Biden by 30.0%	2020-08-22 2020-08-24	2020-08-26 2020-09-17 03:43
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	63.0%	35.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 15:54
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	63.0%	33.0%	Biden by 30.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 16:52
2020-08-12 12:00	SurveyUSA	56.0%	28.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-08-12 2020-08-12	2020-08-12 2020-08-13 16:47
2020-08-09 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	61.0%	25.0%	Biden by 36.0%	2020-08-09 2020-08-09	2020-08-14 2020-08-15 00:10
2020-07-24 12:00	UC Berkeley	67.0%	28.0%	Biden by 39.0%	2020-07-21 2020-07-27	2020-08-04 2020-08-05 16:54
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	63.0%	35.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 15:52
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	64.0%	34.0%	Biden by 30.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 02:21
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 15:49
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	63.0%	34.0%	Biden by 29.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-09-23 2020-09-24 15:25
2020-05-22 00:00	PPIC	57.0%	33.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-05-17 2020-05-26	2020-06-04 2020-06-05 04:34
2020-05-19 00:00	SurveyUSA	58.0%	30.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-05-18 2020-05-19	2020-05-20 2020-05-21 02:39
2020-05-09 12:00	Emerson w/Lean [2]	65.2%	34.8%	Biden by 30.4%	2020-05-08 2020-05-10	2020-05-11 2020-05-11 22:54
2020-05-09 12:00	Emerson [2]	59.2%	29.0%	Biden by 30.2%	2020-05-08 2020-05-10	2020-05-11 2020-05-11 22:50
2020-03-29 00:00	PPP	67.0%	29.0%	Biden by 38.0%	2020-03-28 2020-03-29	2020-04-01 2020-04-01 17:28
2020-02-28 00:00	AtlasIntel	62.1%	26.2%	Biden by 35.9%	2020-02-24 2020-03-02	2020-03-02 2020-03-03 07:37
2020-02-27 12:00	YouGov	59.0%	31.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-02-26 2020-02-28	2020-03-02 2020-03-03 07:08
2020-02-24 12:00	CNN	60.0%	35.0%	Biden by 25.0%	2020-02-22 2020-02-26	2020-02-28 2020-02-29 00:07
2020-02-23 00:00	UC Berkeley	57.8%	30.9%	Biden by 26.9%	2020-02-20 2020-02-25	2020-02-28 2020-02-28 23:26
2020-02-15 00:00	SurveyUSA	57.0%	37.0%	Biden by 20.0%	2020-02-13 2020-02-16	2020-02-19 2020-02-19 23:38
2020-02-08 12:00	YouGov	59.9%	30.4%	Biden by 29.5%	2020-02-01 2020-02-15	2020-02-19 2020-02-21 14:19
2020-01-15 12:00	SurveyUSA	59.0%	35.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-01-14 2020-01-16	2020-01-21 2020-01-22 05:00
2019-12-06 12:00	CNN	56.0%	36.0%	Biden by 20.0%	2019-12-04 2019-12-08	2019-12-11 2019-12-11 20:08
2019-11-21 12:00	SurveyUSA	59.0%	32.0%	Biden by 27.0%	2019-11-20 2019-11-22	2019-11-27 2019-11-28 17:13
2019-10-16 00:00	SurveyUSA	59.0%	32.0%	Biden by 27.0%	2019-10-15 2019-10-16	2019-10-22 2019-10-24 04:12
2019-09-15 00:00	Emerson	63.8%	36.2%	Biden by 27.6%	2019-09-13 2019-09-16	2019-09-17 2019-09-17 17:20
2019-09-14 12:00	SurveyUSA	57.0%	31.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2019-09-13 2019-09-15	2019-09-18 2019-09-19 06:40
2019-08-03 12:00	SurveyUSA	61.0%	27.0%	Biden by 34.0%	2019-08-01 2019-08-05	2019-08-07 2019-08-08 06:19
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	61.7%	31.6%	DEM by 30.1%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-18 04:52
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	60.2%	37.1%	DEM by 23.1%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-21 23:09
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	61.0%	37.0%	DEM by 24.1%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-22 10:41
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	54.3%	44.4%	DEM by 10.0%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-13 23:30
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	53.5%	41.7%	DEM by 11.8%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-05 07:42
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	51.1%	38.2%	DEM by 12.9%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 08:15
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	46.0%	32.6%	DEM by 13.4%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:08
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	47.6%	51.1%	REP by 3.6%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 04:02
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	41.3%	57.5%	REP by 16.2%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:01
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	35.9%	52.7%	REP by 16.8%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:16

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

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