2020 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - Oklahoma [7 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-27 00:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:48 UTC
Leaders: Biden vs Trump Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Warren vs Trump Sanders vs Trump Buttigieg vs Trump Harris vs Trump Bloomberg vs Trump || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-10-27 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
36.0%
63.0%
Trump by 27.0%
2020-10-20 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:48
2020-10-27 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
35.0%
65.0%
Trump by 30.0%
2020-10-20 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:48
2020-10-26 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
36.0%
62.0%
Trump by 26.0%
2020-10-19 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 15:32
2020-10-26 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
35.0%
64.0%
Trump by 29.0%
2020-10-19 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 15:32
2020-10-24 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
36.0%
62.0%
Trump by 26.0%
2020-10-17 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-03 15:32
2020-10-24 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
35.0%
64.0%
Trump by 29.0%
2020-10-17 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-03 15:32
2020-10-23 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
37.0%
62.0%
Trump by 25.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 2020-11-02 13:10
2020-10-23 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
36.0%
63.0%
Trump by 27.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 2020-11-02 13:10
2020-10-22 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
37.0%
62.0%
Trump by 25.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-29
2020-10-30 2020-11-02 13:10
2020-10-22 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
35.0%
64.0%
Trump by 29.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-29
2020-10-30 2020-11-02 13:10
2020-10-18 00:00
Sooner w/5P
36.5%
58.5%
Trump by 22.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-22 05:35
2020-10-14 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
59.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-11-02 13:10
2020-10-14 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-11-02 13:10
2020-10-13 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-09-29 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-29 04:36
2020-10-13 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
59.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-09-29 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-29 04:36
2020-10-11 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
59.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-09-27 2020-10-25
2020-10-26 2020-10-29 04:36
2020-10-11 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-09-27 2020-10-25
2020-10-26 2020-10-29 04:36
2020-10-10 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-24
2020-10-25 2020-10-29 04:36
2020-10-10 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
59.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-24
2020-10-25 2020-10-29 04:36
2020-10-10 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 2020-10-29 04:36
2020-10-10 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
59.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 2020-10-29 04:36
2020-10-09 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-22
2020-10-23 2020-10-25 22:18
2020-10-09 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-22
2020-10-23 2020-10-25 22:18
2020-10-08 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
41.0%
58.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2020-09-24 2020-10-21
2020-10-22 2020-10-25 22:18
2020-10-08 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
42.0%
57.0%
Trump by 15.0%
2020-09-24 2020-10-21
2020-10-22 2020-10-25 22:18
2020-10-07 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-23 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-25 22:18
2020-10-07 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
42.0%
57.0%
Trump by 15.0%
2020-09-23 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-25 22:18
2020-10-05 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
41.0%
58.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-19
2020-10-20 2020-10-25 22:18
2020-10-05 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
42.0%
56.0%
Trump by 14.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-19
2020-10-20 2020-10-25 22:18
2020-10-05 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-18
2020-10-19 2020-10-25 22:18
2020-10-05 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-18
2020-10-19 2020-10-25 22:18
2020-10-04 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-09-20 2020-10-17
2020-10-18 2020-10-25 22:18
2020-10-04 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
42.0%
56.0%
Trump by 14.0%
2020-09-20 2020-10-17
2020-10-18 2020-10-25 22:18
2020-10-02 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
42.0%
56.0%
Trump by 14.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-16
2020-10-17 2020-10-25 22:18
2020-10-02 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
41.0%
58.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-16
2020-10-17 2020-10-25 22:18
2020-10-02 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-15
2020-10-16 2020-10-25 22:18
2020-10-02 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-15
2020-10-16 2020-10-25 22:18
2020-10-01 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-17 2020-10-14
2020-10-15 2020-10-23 18:31
2020-10-01 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-09-17 2020-10-14
2020-10-15 2020-10-23 05:34
2020-09-29 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
59.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-22 20:12
2020-09-29 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-21 21:57
2020-09-29 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
39.0%
60.0%
Trump by 21.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-12
2020-10-13 2020-10-18 20:48
2020-09-29 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-12
2020-10-13 2020-10-18 08:17
2020-09-19 00:00
Amber w/5P
33.0%
55.0%
Trump by 22.0%
2020-09-17 2020-09-20
2020-09-23 2020-09-26 23:23
2020-09-16 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
36.0%
62.0%
Trump by 26.0%
2020-09-01 2020-09-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-08 03:38
2020-09-16 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
35.0%
63.0%
Trump by 28.0%
2020-09-01 2020-09-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-03 21:01
2020-09-05 12:00
Sooner w/5P
35.2%
59.6%
Trump by 24.4%
2020-09-02 2020-09-08
2020-09-09 2020-09-10 03:54
2020-08-22 12:00
Sooner
34.7%
59.6%
Trump by 24.9%
2020-08-13 2020-08-31
2020-09-02 2020-10-23 17:16
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-08-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
35.0%
64.0%
Trump by 29.0%
2020-08-01 2020-08-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-08 03:36
2020-08-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
36.0%
62.0%
Trump by 26.0%
2020-08-01 2020-08-31
2020-09-23 2020-09-26 17:41
2020-07-30 00:00
DFM Research
36.0%
56.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2020-07-29 2020-07-30
2020-08-06 2020-08-06 22:36
2020-07-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
34.0%
64.0%
Trump by 30.0%
2020-07-01 2020-07-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-08 03:33
2020-07-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
35.0%
62.0%
Trump by 27.0%
2020-07-01 2020-07-31
2020-09-23 2020-09-25 15:10
2020-06-19 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
37.0%
61.0%
Trump by 24.0%
2020-06-08 2020-06-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-08 03:30
2020-06-19 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-06-08 2020-06-30
2020-09-23 2020-09-24 19:16
2020-06-04 00:00
Amber
36.0%
55.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-06-03 2020-06-04
2020-06-08 2020-06-09 04:05
2020-03-07 00:00
Amber
33.0%
57.0%
Trump by 24.0%
2020-03-05 2020-03-08
2020-03-11 2020-03-11 20:59
2020-02-12 00:00
Sooner
34.0%
62.0%
Trump by 28.0%
2020-02-10 2020-02-13
2020-02-18 2020-02-18 18:54
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
28.9%
65.3%
REP by 36.4%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-20 04:36
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
33.2%
66.8%
REP by 33.5%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:06
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
34.4%
65.7%
REP by 31.3%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-10-05 08:35
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
34.4%
65.6%
REP by 31.1%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:02
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
38.4%
60.3%
REP by 21.9%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:43
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
40.5%
48.3%
REP by 7.8%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-16 19:38
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
34.0%
42.7%
REP by 8.6%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:39
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
41.3%
57.9%
REP by 16.7%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:43
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
30.7%
68.6%
REP by 37.9%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-24 06:51
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
35.0%
60.5%
REP by 25.5%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:06
Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races .
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin ".
Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here .
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