2020 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - Idaho [4 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-27 00:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:22 UTC
Leaders: Biden vs Trump Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Warren vs Trump Sanders vs Trump Buttigieg vs Trump Harris vs Trump Bloomberg vs Trump || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-10-27 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-10-20 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:22
2020-10-27 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-10-20 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:22
2020-10-26 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-10-19 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 14:03
2020-10-26 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
40.0%
57.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2020-10-19 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 14:03
2020-10-24 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-10-17 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-03 14:03
2020-10-24 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
39.0%
59.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2020-10-17 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-03 14:03
2020-10-23 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
39.0%
59.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 2020-10-31 22:08
2020-10-23 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
38.0%
60.0%
Trump by 22.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 2020-10-31 22:08
2020-10-22 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
39.0%
59.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-29
2020-10-30 2020-10-31 22:08
2020-10-22 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
38.0%
60.0%
Trump by 22.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-29
2020-10-30 2020-10-31 22:08
2020-10-14 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-10-31 22:08
2020-10-14 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
40.0%
57.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-10-31 22:08
2020-10-13 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
40.0%
57.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2020-09-29 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-28 20:18
2020-10-13 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-29 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-28 20:18
2020-10-11 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-27 2020-10-25
2020-10-26 2020-10-28 20:18
2020-10-11 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-27 2020-10-25
2020-10-26 2020-10-28 20:18
2020-10-10 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-24
2020-10-25 2020-10-28 20:18
2020-10-10 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-24
2020-10-25 2020-10-28 20:18
2020-10-10 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 2020-10-28 20:18
2020-10-10 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 2020-10-28 20:18
2020-10-09 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-22
2020-10-23 2020-10-24 18:07
2020-10-09 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-22
2020-10-23 2020-10-24 18:07
2020-10-08 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
57.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2020-09-24 2020-10-21
2020-10-22 2020-10-24 18:07
2020-10-08 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-24 2020-10-21
2020-10-22 2020-10-24 18:07
2020-10-07 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-09-23 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-24 18:07
2020-10-07 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
40.0%
57.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2020-09-23 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-24 18:07
2020-10-05 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-19
2020-10-20 2020-10-24 18:07
2020-10-05 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
40.0%
57.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-19
2020-10-20 2020-10-24 18:07
2020-10-05 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-18
2020-10-19 2020-10-24 18:07
2020-10-05 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-18
2020-10-19 2020-10-24 18:07
2020-10-04 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-09-20 2020-10-17
2020-10-18 2020-10-24 18:07
2020-10-04 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
39.0%
58.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-09-20 2020-10-17
2020-10-18 2020-10-24 18:07
2020-10-02 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
38.0%
60.0%
Trump by 22.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-16
2020-10-17 2020-10-24 18:07
2020-10-02 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
39.0%
59.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-16
2020-10-17 2020-10-24 18:07
2020-10-02 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
39.0%
59.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-15
2020-10-16 2020-10-24 18:07
2020-10-02 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
38.0%
60.0%
Trump by 22.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-15
2020-10-16 2020-10-24 18:07
2020-10-01 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
39.0%
58.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-09-17 2020-10-14
2020-10-15 2020-10-23 17:39
2020-10-01 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
39.0%
59.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2020-09-17 2020-10-14
2020-10-15 2020-10-23 04:28
2020-09-29 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
39.0%
58.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-22 19:47
2020-09-29 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
38.0%
59.0%
Trump by 21.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-21 21:24
2020-09-29 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
39.0%
59.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-12
2020-10-13 2020-10-18 19:45
2020-09-29 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
38.0%
59.0%
Trump by 21.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-12
2020-10-13 2020-10-18 05:24
2020-09-16 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
35.0%
64.0%
Trump by 29.0%
2020-09-01 2020-09-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-07 19:58
2020-09-16 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
35.0%
64.0%
Trump by 29.0%
2020-09-01 2020-09-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-03 22:50
2020-08-31 00:00
Spry
34.5%
59.7%
Trump by 25.2%
2020-08-29 2020-09-01
2020-09-07 2020-09-08 03:41
2020-08-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-08-01 2020-08-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-07 19:55
2020-08-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
40.0%
58.0%
Trump by 18.0%
2020-08-01 2020-08-31
2020-09-23 2020-09-25 17:52
2020-07-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
35.0%
63.0%
Trump by 28.0%
2020-07-01 2020-07-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-07 19:53
2020-07-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
35.0%
63.0%
Trump by 28.0%
2020-07-01 2020-07-31
2020-09-23 2020-09-25 02:45
2020-06-19 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
41.0%
58.0%
Trump by 17.0%
2020-06-08 2020-06-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-07 19:51
2020-06-19 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
41.0%
57.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2020-06-08 2020-06-30
2020-09-23 2020-09-25 02:43
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
27.5%
59.3%
REP by 31.8%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-18 06:38
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
32.6%
64.5%
REP by 31.9%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:25
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
36.1%
61.5%
REP by 25.4%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-09-25 05:27
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
30.3%
68.4%
REP by 38.1%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 05:41
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
27.6%
67.2%
REP by 39.5%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-09 06:04
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
33.7%
52.2%
REP by 18.5%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-16 08:47
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
28.4%
42.0%
REP by 13.6%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:21
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
36.0%
62.1%
REP by 26.1%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 08:11
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
26.4%
72.4%
REP by 46.0%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:31
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
25.2%
66.5%
REP by 41.3%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:30
Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races .
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin ".
Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here .
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