2020 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - Connecticut [7 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-28 00:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 18:44 UTC
Leaders: Biden vs Trump Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Warren vs Trump Sanders vs Trump Buttigieg vs Trump Harris vs Trump Bloomberg vs Trump || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-10-28 00:00
Swayable w/4P
64.1%
33.7%
Biden by 30.4%
2020-10-23 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 04:43
2020-10-27 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
60.0%
38.0%
Biden by 22.0%
2020-10-20 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 2020-11-03 18:44
2020-10-27 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
61.0%
38.0%
Biden by 23.0%
2020-10-20 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 2020-11-03 18:44
2020-10-26 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
60.0%
38.0%
Biden by 22.0%
2020-10-19 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 16:59
2020-10-26 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
61.0%
37.0%
Biden by 24.0%
2020-10-19 2020-11-01
2020-11-02 2020-11-03 16:59
2020-10-24 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
61.0%
38.0%
Biden by 23.0%
2020-10-17 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-03 16:59
2020-10-24 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
61.0%
37.0%
Biden by 24.0%
2020-10-17 2020-10-31
2020-11-01 2020-11-03 16:59
2020-10-23 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
62.0%
37.0%
Biden by 25.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 2020-11-03 12:24
2020-10-23 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
61.0%
38.0%
Biden by 23.0%
2020-10-16 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 2020-11-03 12:24
2020-10-22 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [28]
61.0%
37.0%
Biden by 24.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-29
2020-10-30 2020-11-03 12:24
2020-10-22 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [28]
60.0%
39.0%
Biden by 21.0%
2020-10-15 2020-10-29
2020-10-30 2020-11-03 12:24
2020-10-15 00:00
Sacred Heart
51.4%
26.4%
Biden by 25.0%
2020-10-08 2020-10-21
2020-10-30 2020-10-30 18:49
2020-10-14 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
63.0%
34.0%
Biden by 29.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-11-03 12:24
2020-10-14 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
63.0%
35.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-30 2020-10-28
2020-10-29 2020-11-03 12:24
2020-10-13 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
63.0%
35.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-29 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-31 20:43
2020-10-13 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
63.0%
34.0%
Biden by 29.0%
2020-09-29 2020-10-27
2020-10-28 2020-10-31 20:43
2020-10-11 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
63.0%
35.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-27 2020-10-25
2020-10-26 2020-10-31 20:43
2020-10-11 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
63.0%
34.0%
Biden by 29.0%
2020-09-27 2020-10-25
2020-10-26 2020-10-31 20:43
2020-10-10 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
63.0%
35.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-24
2020-10-25 2020-10-31 20:43
2020-10-10 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
63.0%
34.0%
Biden by 29.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-24
2020-10-25 2020-10-31 20:43
2020-10-10 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
62.0%
34.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 2020-10-31 20:43
2020-10-10 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
63.0%
35.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-26 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 2020-10-31 20:43
2020-10-09 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
62.0%
35.0%
Biden by 27.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-22
2020-10-23 2020-10-28 07:29
2020-10-09 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
62.0%
35.0%
Biden by 27.0%
2020-09-25 2020-10-22
2020-10-23 2020-10-28 07:29
2020-10-08 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
61.0%
35.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-09-24 2020-10-21
2020-10-22 2020-10-28 07:29
2020-10-08 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-09-24 2020-10-21
2020-10-22 2020-10-28 07:29
2020-10-07 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-09-23 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-28 07:29
2020-10-07 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
61.0%
35.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-09-23 2020-10-20
2020-10-21 2020-10-28 07:29
2020-10-05 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
61.0%
35.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-19
2020-10-20 2020-10-28 07:29
2020-10-05 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
62.0%
36.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-19
2020-10-20 2020-10-28 07:29
2020-10-05 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
62.0%
35.0%
Biden by 27.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-18
2020-10-19 2020-10-28 07:29
2020-10-05 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
61.0%
35.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2020-09-21 2020-10-18
2020-10-19 2020-10-28 07:29
2020-10-04 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
62.0%
34.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-20 2020-10-17
2020-10-18 2020-10-28 07:29
2020-10-04 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
63.0%
34.0%
Biden by 29.0%
2020-09-20 2020-10-17
2020-10-18 2020-10-28 07:29
2020-10-02 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
62.0%
34.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-16
2020-10-17 2020-10-28 07:29
2020-10-02 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
63.0%
35.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-16
2020-10-17 2020-10-28 07:29
2020-10-02 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
63.0%
33.0%
Biden by 30.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-15
2020-10-16 2020-10-28 07:29
2020-10-02 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
64.0%
34.0%
Biden by 30.0%
2020-09-18 2020-10-15
2020-10-16 2020-10-28 07:29
2020-10-01 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
63.0%
34.0%
Biden by 29.0%
2020-09-17 2020-10-14
2020-10-15 2020-10-23 19:42
2020-10-01 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
62.0%
34.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-17 2020-10-14
2020-10-15 2020-10-23 06:29
2020-09-29 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
62.0%
35.0%
Biden by 27.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-22 21:26
2020-09-29 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
62.0%
34.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-13
2020-10-14 2020-10-21 23:03
2020-09-29 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [56]
62.0%
35.0%
Biden by 27.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-12
2020-10-13 2020-10-18 22:13
2020-09-29 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [56]
62.0%
34.0%
Biden by 28.0%
2020-09-15 2020-10-12
2020-10-13 2020-10-18 03:54
2020-09-16 00:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
61.0%
36.0%
Biden by 25.0%
2020-09-01 2020-09-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-08 06:25
2020-09-16 00:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
61.0%
37.0%
Biden by 24.0%
2020-09-01 2020-09-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-03 23:12
2020-08-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
64.0%
35.0%
Biden by 29.0%
2020-08-01 2020-08-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-08 06:22
2020-08-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
64.0%
34.0%
Biden by 30.0%
2020-08-01 2020-08-31
2020-09-23 2020-09-25 17:30
2020-07-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
59.0%
39.0%
Biden by 20.0%
2020-07-01 2020-07-31
2020-10-02 2020-10-08 06:19
2020-07-16 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
59.0%
38.0%
Biden by 21.0%
2020-07-01 2020-07-31
2020-09-23 2020-09-25 02:27
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-06-19 12:00
SurveyMonkey LV [2]
65.0%
32.0%
Biden by 33.0%
2020-06-08 2020-06-30
2020-10-02 2020-10-08 06:16
2020-06-19 12:00
SurveyMonkey RV [2]
65.0%
32.0%
Biden by 33.0%
2020-06-08 2020-06-30
2020-09-23 2020-09-24 15:30
2020-05-22 00:00
SurveyUSA
52.0%
32.0%
Biden by 20.0%
2020-05-19 2020-05-24
2020-06-18 2020-08-15 17:00
2020-05-02 12:00
Quinnipiac
56.0%
33.0%
Biden by 23.0%
2020-04-30 2020-05-04
2020-05-06 2020-05-06 19:47
2020-03-29 12:00
Sacred Heart
47.3%
34.1%
Biden by 13.2%
2020-03-24 2020-04-03
2020-04-10 2020-04-14 15:57
2020-03-04 00:00
Sacred Heart
51.9%
35.6%
Biden by 16.3%
2020-02-24 2020-03-12
2020-03-17 2020-03-19 16:12
2019-12-25 00:00
Sacred Heart
51.7%
32.3%
Biden by 19.4%
2019-12-16 2020-01-02
2020-01-12 2020-01-12 17:09
2019-09-25 00:00
Sacred Heart
52.2%
33.3%
Biden by 18.9%
2019-09-17 2019-10-02
2019-10-09 2019-10-09 19:43
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
54.6%
40.9%
DEM by 13.6%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-18 06:07
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
58.1%
40.7%
DEM by 17.3%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:05
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
60.6%
38.2%
DEM by 22.4%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-09-22 10:44
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
54.3%
44.0%
DEM by 10.4%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 01:22
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
55.9%
38.4%
DEM by 17.5%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-09 05:47
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
52.8%
34.7%
DEM by 18.1%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-16 08:28
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
42.2%
35.8%
DEM by 6.4%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:12
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
46.9%
52.0%
REP by 5.1%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 04:19
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
38.8%
60.7%
REP by 21.9%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:08
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
38.5%
48.2%
REP by 9.6%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:19
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin ".
Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here .
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