2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - South Carolina [9 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-16 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-10-23 19:19 UTC

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-16 00:00

Morning Consult

45.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-10-11
2020-10-20

2020-10-22
2020-10-22 15:56

2020-10-12 12:00

Siena w/4P

41.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-10-09
2020-10-15

2020-10-15
2020-10-15 18:48

2020-10-10 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P

43.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-10-08
2020-10-11

2020-10-14
2020-10-15 01:40

2020-10-07 00:00

Morning Consult

42.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2020-10-02
2020-10-11

2020-10-13
2020-10-13 19:02

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

45.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 19:19

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

47.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 06:11

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

45.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-22 20:55

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

46.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-21 22:35

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

44.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 21:53

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

46.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 08:36

2020-09-26 12:00

GBAO

44.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-09-24
2020-09-28

2020-10-08
2020-10-09 15:38

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-09-26 00:00

Data for Progress [2]

45.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-09-23
2020-09-28

2020-10-01
2020-10-01 16:05

2020-09-26 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P [2]

43.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-23
2020-09-28

2020-10-01
2020-10-01 16:03

2020-09-25 12:00

Quinnipiac

47.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-09-23
2020-09-27

2020-09-30
2020-09-30 18:26

2020-09-24 00:00

YouGov

42.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-09-22
2020-09-25

2020-09-27
2020-09-27 18:34

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 03:58

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

45.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-03 17:53

2020-09-16 00:00

Morning Consult

44.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-09-11
2020-09-20

2020-09-22
2020-09-22 16:07

2020-09-12 12:00

Quinnipiac

45.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-09-10
2020-09-14

2020-09-16
2020-09-16 18:55

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

45.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 03:55

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

47.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-26 17:54

2020-08-01 12:00

Quinnipiac

42.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-07-30
2020-08-03

2020-08-06
2020-08-06 23:17

2020-07-29 00:00

Morning Consult

44.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-07-24
2020-08-02

2020-08-04
2020-08-05 17:04

2020-07-18 00:00

ALG Research w/Lean [2]

45.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-07-15
2020-07-20

2020-07-27
2020-07-28 06:27

2020-07-18 00:00

ALG Research [2]

42.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-07-15
2020-07-20

2020-07-27
2020-07-28 06:25

2020-07-17 12:00

Gravis

46.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-07-17
2020-07-17

2020-07-18
2020-07-18 22:24

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

44.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 03:51

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 15:20

2020-07-16 12:00

Brilliant Corners

43.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-07-13
2020-07-19

2020-07-21
2020-07-27 18:41

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

47.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 03:47

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 19:23

2020-05-25 00:00

Civiqs

42.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-05-23
2020-05-26

2020-05-27
2020-05-28 02:14

2020-02-27 00:00

AtlasIntel

41.8%

47.6%

Trump
by 5.8%

2020-02-25
2020-02-28

2020-02-28
2020-02-29 03:50

2020-02-01 12:00

ECU

40.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2020-01-31
2020-02-02

2020-02-06
2020-02-07 20:52

2019-06-13 00:00

Change Research

38.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2019-06-11
2019-06-14

2019-07-01
2019-07-01 22:51

2019-03-01 12:00

Emerson

48.1%

51.9%

Trump
by 3.8%

2019-02-28
2019-03-02

2019-03-02
2019-03-07 03:50

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

40.7%

54.9%

REP
by 14.3%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-24 17:33

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

44.1%

54.6%

REP
by 10.5%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:10

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

44.9%

53.9%

REP
by 9.0%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-06 01:46

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

40.9%

58.0%

REP
by 17.1%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:07

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

40.9%

56.8%

REP
by 15.9%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:50

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

43.9%

49.9%

REP
by 6.0%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-18 15:39

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

39.9%

48.0%

REP
by 8.1%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:45

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

37.6%

61.5%

REP
by 23.9%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:52

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

35.6%

63.6%

REP
by 28.0%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:59

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

48.0%

49.6%

REP
by 1.5%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:13

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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