2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Georgia [16 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-21 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-10-23 21:59 UTC

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-21 12:00

Landmark

45.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-10-21
2020-10-21

2020-10-23
2020-10-23 21:59

2020-10-18 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

47.0%

48.4%

Trump
by 1.4%

2020-10-17
2020-10-19

2020-10-19
2020-10-20 00:53

2020-10-18 12:00

Emerson [2]

46.6%

47.8%

Trump
by 1.2%

2020-10-17
2020-10-19

2020-10-19
2020-10-20 00:52

2020-10-16 12:00

Siena w/4P

45.0%

45.0%

TIED

2020-10-13
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 06:32

2020-10-16 00:00

Morning Consult

48.0%

48.0%

TIED

2020-10-11
2020-10-20

2020-10-22
2020-10-22 15:44

2020-10-14 00:00

Opinion Insight

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-12
2020-10-15

2020-10-22
2020-10-23 21:46

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-13 00:00

Garin-Hart-Yang

51.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-10-11
2020-10-14

2020-10-21
2020-10-22 05:12

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyUSA

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-08
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-15 04:25

2020-10-10 12:00

Quinnipiac

51.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-10-08
2020-10-12

2020-10-14
2020-10-15 02:50

2020-10-10 00:00

Data for Progress

46.0%

46.0%

TIED

2020-10-08
2020-10-11

2020-10-14
2020-10-15 01:36

2020-10-09 00:00

PPP

47.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-08
2020-10-09

2020-10-10
2020-10-10 21:38

2020-10-07 12:00

Landmark w/3P

46.8%

48.6%

Trump
by 1.8%

2020-10-07
2020-10-07

2020-10-09
2020-10-10 21:35

2020-10-07 00:00

Morning Consult

47.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-10-02
2020-10-11

2020-10-13
2020-10-13 16:35

2020-10-02 00:00

University of Georgia w/3P

46.4%

47.5%

Trump
by 1.1%

2020-09-27
2020-10-06

2020-10-08
2020-10-09 17:41

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

49.0%

49.0%

TIED

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 19:16

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

51.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 06:08

2020-09-30 12:00

Landmark w/3P

47.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-09-30
2020-09-30

2020-10-01
2020-10-02 04:14

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

50.0%

49.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-22 20:51

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-21 22:32

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

49.0%

49.0%

TIED

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 21:48

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

51.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 05:11

2020-09-28 00:00

Civiqs

50.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-26
2020-09-29

2020-09-29
2020-09-29 21:11

2020-09-26 00:00

Hart Research

50.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-24
2020-09-27

2020-10-02
2020-10-02 22:49

2020-09-25 12:00

Quinnipiac

50.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-23
2020-09-27

2020-09-29
2020-09-29 21:06

2020-09-25 00:00

Redfield and Wilton w/4P

45.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-23
2020-09-26

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 03:19

2020-09-24 00:00

YouGov

46.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-09-22
2020-09-25

2020-09-27
2020-09-27 18:01

2020-09-19 12:00

Monmouth Low Turnout w/3P [3]

45.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-09-17
2020-09-21

2020-09-23
2020-09-23 17:37

2020-09-19 12:00

Monmouth High Turnout w/3P [3]

46.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-17
2020-09-21

2020-09-23
2020-09-23 17:14

2020-09-19 12:00

Monmouth RV w/3P [3]

46.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-09-17
2020-09-21

2020-09-23
2020-09-23 17:12

2020-09-19 00:00

Siena w/3P

45.0%

45.0%

TIED

2020-09-16
2020-09-21

2020-09-23
2020-09-27 04:53

2020-09-17 00:00

Data for Progress w/Lean [2]

46.0%

46.0%

TIED

2020-09-14
2020-09-19

2020-09-23
2020-09-26 22:55

2020-09-17 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P [2]

45.0%

45.0%

TIED

2020-09-14
2020-09-19

2020-09-23
2020-09-26 22:52

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

52.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 04:13

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-03 22:58

2020-09-16 00:00

University of Georgia w/3P

47.0%

47.0%

TIED

2020-09-11
2020-09-20

2020-09-22
2020-09-22 16:12

2020-09-15 12:00

GBAO

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-14
2020-09-16

2020-09-21
2020-09-21 12:15

2020-09-14 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

45.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-09-12
2020-09-16

2020-09-20
2020-09-20 18:03

2020-09-03 00:00

Morning Consult

46.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-08-29
2020-09-07

2020-09-09
2020-09-09 17:03

2020-09-02 12:00

Fabrizio Ward Hart

47.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-08-30
2020-09-05

2020-09-10
2020-09-10 16:02

2020-09-01 00:00

Opinion Insight Total w/3P [2]

46.0%

46.0%

TIED

2020-08-30
2020-09-02

2020-09-22
2020-10-23 20:56

2020-09-01 00:00

Opinion Insight Definitely w/3P [2]

44.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-08-30
2020-09-02

2020-09-22
2020-10-23 20:54

2020-08-30 12:00

Landmark Communications w/3P

40.5%

47.9%

Trump
by 7.4%

2020-08-29
2020-08-31

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 22:48

2020-08-26 00:00

Morning Consult

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-08-21
2020-08-30

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 15:48

2020-08-25 12:00

HarrisX

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-08-20
2020-08-30

2020-09-15
2020-09-16 00:12

2020-08-25 00:00

PPP

47.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-08-24
2020-08-25

2020-08-31
2020-08-31 18:20

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

49.0%

49.0%

TIED

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 04:10

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 17:46

2020-08-15 00:00

Landmark Communications w/3P

44.5%

47.4%

Trump
by 2.9%

2020-08-14
2020-08-15

2020-08-17
2020-08-17 20:16

2020-08-12 00:00

Morning Consult

46.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-08-07
2020-08-16

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 15:46

2020-08-07 12:00

SurveyUSA

46.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-08-06
2020-08-08

2020-08-11
2020-08-11 16:39

2020-07-30 00:00

YouGov

46.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-07-28
2020-07-31

2020-08-02
2020-08-02 19:09

2020-07-27 12:00

HIT Strategies

44.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-07-23
2020-07-31

2020-08-10
2020-08-11 07:05

2020-07-25 12:00

Monmouth Low Turnout [3]

46.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-07-23
2020-07-27

2020-07-29
2020-07-29 18:40

2020-07-25 12:00

Monmouth High Turnout [3]

47.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-07-23
2020-07-27

2020-07-29
2020-07-29 18:39

2020-07-25 12:00

Monmouth RV [3]

47.0%

47.0%

TIED

2020-07-23
2020-07-27

2020-07-29
2020-07-29 18:37

2020-07-24 00:00

PPP

46.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-07-23
2020-07-24

2020-07-28
2020-07-28 19:12

2020-07-22 00:00

Morning Consult

47.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-07-17
2020-07-26

2020-07-28
2020-07-28 06:54

2020-07-17 00:00

Trafalgar

43.3%

49.8%

Trump
by 6.5%

2020-07-15
2020-07-18

2020-07-20
2020-07-20 22:22

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

45.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 04:08

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

49.0%

49.0%

TIED

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 02:36

2020-07-14 00:00

Spry

45.7%

48.8%

Trump
by 3.1%

2020-07-11
2020-07-16

2020-07-22
2020-07-23 19:16

2020-07-12 12:00

Garin-Hart-Yang

47.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-07-09
2020-07-15

2020-07-22
2020-07-22 17:29

2020-07-02 12:00

Gravis

45.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-07-02
2020-07-02

2020-07-12
2020-07-12 20:15

2020-06-26 00:00

PPP

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-06-25
2020-06-26

2020-06-29
2020-06-30 04:59

2020-06-22 00:00

Fox News

47.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-06-20
2020-06-23

2020-06-25
2020-06-25 22:31

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

49.0%

49.0%

TIED

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 04:05

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

52.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 15:45

2020-06-13 00:00

PPP

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-06-12
2020-06-13

2020-06-16
2020-06-16 15:40

2020-05-24 12:00

TargetSmart w/Lean [2]

40.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-05-21
2020-05-27

2020-06-11
2020-06-12 15:21

2020-05-24 12:00

TargetSmart [2]

37.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-05-21
2020-05-27

2020-06-11
2020-06-12 15:18

2020-05-22 00:00

Morning Consult

47.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-05-17
2020-05-26

2020-07-28
2020-07-29 18:00

2020-05-17 12:00

Civiqs

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-05-16
2020-05-18

2020-05-19
2020-05-19 19:49

2020-05-12 12:00

BK Strategies

46.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-05-11
2020-05-13

2020-05-14
2020-05-15 16:35

2020-05-06 00:00

Public Opinion Strategies

47.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-05-04
2020-05-07

2020-05-12
2020-05-13 15:22

2020-04-26 12:00

Cygnal Total [2]

44.0%

45.1%

Trump
by 1.1%

2020-04-25
2020-04-27

2020-05-01
2020-05-01 16:02

2020-04-26 12:00

Cygnal Definitely [2]

34.4%

40.8%

Trump
by 6.4%

2020-04-25
2020-04-27

2020-05-01
2020-05-01 15:56

2020-04-01 00:00

Battleground

46.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-03-31
2020-04-01

2020-04-02
2020-04-03 16:37

2020-03-17 00:00

OurProgress

47.3%

48.9%

Trump
by 1.6%

2020-03-12
2020-03-21

2020-03-24
2020-04-29 19:41

2020-02-28 00:00

University of Georgia

43.1%

51.4%

Trump
by 8.3%

2020-02-24
2020-03-02

2020-03-04
2020-03-04 17:47

2019-12-21 12:00

Mason-Dixon

44.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2019-12-19
2019-12-23

2020-01-09
2020-01-09 22:37

2019-11-17 00:00

SurveyUSA

47.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2019-11-15
2019-11-18

2019-11-19
2019-11-20 05:19

2019-11-07 12:00

Climate Nexus

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2019-11-04
2019-11-10

2019-11-19
2019-11-19 20:43

2019-11-04 00:00

AJC

51.1%

42.5%

Biden
by 8.6%

2019-10-30
2019-11-08

2019-11-13
2019-11-13 15:02

2019-10-29 12:00

Zogby

46.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2019-10-28
2019-10-30

2019-11-13
2019-11-13 18:30

2019-03-22 00:00

Trump Internal (NBC)

53.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2019-03-15
2019-03-28

2019-06-16
2019-06-16 18:19

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

45.6%

50.8%

REP
by 5.1%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 06:28

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

45.5%

53.3%

REP
by 7.8%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:23

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

47.0%

52.2%

REP
by 5.2%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-25 01:14

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

41.4%

58.0%

REP
by 16.6%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 05:37

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

43.0%

54.7%

REP
by 11.7%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-09 06:00

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

45.8%

47.0%

REP
by 1.2%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 08:45

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

43.5%

42.9%

DEM
by 0.6%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:18

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

39.5%

59.8%

REP
by 20.3%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 06:27

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

39.8%

60.2%

REP
by 20.4%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:27

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

55.8%

41.0%

DEM
by 14.8%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:27

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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