2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - National Summary

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2019-09-15 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2019-09-19 17:31 UTC

Best Polled: ||
Democrat: Republican: History Shown in Graphs: 

 

Poll Average Categorization

BidenTrumpMargin
Trump BestBiden/Trump TIE
ExpectedBiden/Trump TIE
Biden BestBiden/Trump TIE
The tipping point state is where Biden is ahead by 0.0%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Biden by 166
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 220 ----- Biden by 108
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 254 ---------- Biden by 50
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 274 --------------- Biden by 6
Odds:
Biden: 99.9% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 0.1%

All of the above represents the situation as if the election was held today. Election Graphs does not try to extrapolate trends into the future. Things can and will change, sometimes dramatically in just a matter of weeks. Interpret these results accordingly.

 

State Breakdown by Category

Click on state names for polling details.

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Solid Biden
StateEVAhead by
District of Columbia

3

(((((82.4%)))))

Hawaii

4

(((((29.5%)))))

California

55

((28.2%))

Massachusetts

11

((((27.8%))))

Vermont

3

(((((25.8%)))))

New York

29

(((((24.2%)))))

Rhode Island

4

(((((24.1%)))))

Maryland

10

(((((20.7%)))))

Illinois

20

(((((16.3%)))))

Connecticut

7

(((((16.2%)))))

Maine (CD1)

1

(((((15.8%)))))

Washington

12

((((15.2%))))

Delaware

3

(((((15.1%)))))

New Jersey

14

(((((14.0%)))))

Strong Biden
StateEVAhead by
Maine (All)

2

((9.5%))

Oregon

7

(((((8.8%)))))

Colorado

9

(((7.6%)))

Michigan

16

7.6%

New Hampshire

4

((7.5%))

Minnesota

10

((((7.4%))))

New Mexico

5

(((((6.6%)))))

Nevada

6

(((6.2%)))

Pennsylvania

20

5.3%

•  North Carolina

15

5.1%

Weak Biden
StateEVAhead by
Virginia

13

((((4.9%))))

Wisconsin

10

4.6%

Maine (CD2)

1

(((((3.4%)))))

Texas

38

2.2%

Arizona

11

2.2%

Ohio

18

((1.6%))

Florida

29

0.9%

Weak Trump
StateEVAhead by
Iowa

6

(0.1%)

Strong Trump
StateEVAhead by
Georgia

16

((((5.8%))))

Missouri

10

((((8.7%))))

Nebraska (CD2)

1

(((((9.7%)))))

Solid Trump
StateEVAhead by
South Carolina

9

(((10.7%)))

Indiana

11

(((((12.9%)))))

Louisiana

8

(((((15.5%)))))

Mississippi

6

(((((15.8%)))))

Tennessee

11

(((((15.9%)))))

Alaska

3

((((16.2%))))

Montana

3

(((((16.4%)))))

Arkansas

6

(((((17.1%)))))

Nebraska (CD1)

1

(((((19.5%)))))

South Dakota

3

(((((20.1%)))))

Kentucky

8

(((20.2%)))

West Virginia

5

(((((20.2%)))))

Kansas

6

(((((20.7%)))))

North Dakota

3

(((21.0%)))

Alabama

9

(((((22.4%)))))

Nebraska (All)

2

(((((24.8%)))))

Utah

6

((((28.2%))))

Oklahoma

7

(((((30.9%)))))

Idaho

4

(((((33.4%)))))

Wyoming

3

(((((39.7%)))))

Nebraska (CD3)

1

(((((46.6%)))))

 

Ten most needed polls:
Iowa, Maine (CD2), Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico,
Georgia, Oregon, Minnesota, Nebraska (CD2), Nevada

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

The number of parentheses around the averages indicates the number of "generic" results that were added to fill out the poll average.

Only results with no parentheses represent a true average of only polls asking specifically about the two candidates shown.

 

Weighted Average* of Time Covered by Poll Averages for these candidates is 5.7 years.

*Time covered by poll average in each state weighted by abs(1/margin) in order to give higher weight to closer states.

 

List of all polls for this candidate pair: HTML

 

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

 

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