2020 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - North Dakota [3 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-27 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:35 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:35
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	40.0%	58.0%	Trump by 18.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:35
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	40.0%	58.0%	Trump by 18.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 14:39
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 14:39
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	40.0%	59.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 14:39
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	41.0%	57.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 14:39
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	38.0%	60.0%	Trump by 22.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-01 11:15
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	40.0%	59.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-01 11:15
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-01 11:15
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	38.0%	60.0%	Trump by 22.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-01 11:15
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	42.0%	56.0%	Trump by 14.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-01 11:15
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	42.0%	57.0%	Trump by 15.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-01 11:15
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	41.0%	58.0%	Trump by 17.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-28 21:31
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	58.0%	Trump by 17.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-28 21:31
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	41.0%	58.0%	Trump by 17.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-28 21:31
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	40.0%	59.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-28 21:31
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	40.0%	58.0%	Trump by 18.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-28 21:31
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	40.0%	59.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-28 21:31
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	40.0%	59.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-28 21:31
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	40.0%	59.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-28 21:31
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	39.0%	60.0%	Trump by 21.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-24 22:13
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	60.0%	Trump by 21.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-24 22:13
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	40.0%	59.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-24 22:13
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	40.0%	59.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-24 22:13
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	60.0%	Trump by 21.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-24 22:13
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	40.0%	59.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-24 22:13
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	40.0%	59.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-24 22:13
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	40.0%	58.0%	Trump by 18.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-24 22:13
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	40.0%	59.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-24 22:13
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	40.0%	58.0%	Trump by 18.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-24 22:13
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	60.0%	Trump by 21.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-24 22:13
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-24 22:13
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	38.0%	60.0%	Trump by 22.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-24 22:13
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	38.0%	60.0%	Trump by 22.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-24 22:13
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-24 22:13
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-24 22:13
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	38.0%	60.0%	Trump by 22.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 17:54
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	38.0%	60.0%	Trump by 22.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 04:51
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-22 19:58
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	39.0%	59.0%	Trump by 20.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-21 21:37
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	37.0%	61.0%	Trump by 24.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 20:04
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	37.0%	61.0%	Trump by 24.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 08:01
2020-09-28 00:00	DFM Research	37.0%	51.0%	Trump by 14.0%	2020-09-26 2020-09-29	2020-10-05 2020-10-06 12:37
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	35.0%	62.0%	Trump by 27.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 06:41
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	34.0%	63.0%	Trump by 29.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-03 21:49
2020-09-14 12:00	DFM Research	37.0%	56.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-09-12 2020-09-16	2020-09-29 2020-09-29 20:46
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	32.0%	66.0%	Trump by 34.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 06:38
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	32.0%	66.0%	Trump by 34.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-26 17:35
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	36.0%	63.0%	Trump by 27.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 06:35
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	37.0%	62.0%	Trump by 25.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 07:06

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	28.0%	71.0%	Trump by 43.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 06:33
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	34.0%	65.0%	Trump by 31.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-09-23 2020-09-24 19:12
2020-03-04 12:00	DFM Research	38.0%	55.0%	Trump by 17.0%	2020-03-03 2020-03-05	2020-03-09 2020-03-09 17:22
2020-01-30 12:00	DFM Research LV [2]	38.0%	57.0%	Trump by 19.0%	2020-01-28 2020-02-01	2020-02-06 2020-02-06 22:08
2020-01-30 12:00	DFM Research All [2]	34.0%	59.0%	Trump by 25.0%	2020-01-28 2020-02-01	2020-02-06 2020-02-06 22:06
2019-07-16 12:00	1892	34.0%	60.0%	Trump by 26.0%	2019-07-15 2019-07-17	2019-08-07 2019-08-09 01:34
2019-05-16 12:00	DFM Research	39.0%	54.0%	Trump by 15.0%	2019-05-14 2019-05-18	2019-07-31 2019-07-31 18:21
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	27.2%	63.0%	REP by 35.7%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-20 04:15
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	38.7%	58.3%	REP by 19.6%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:04
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	44.6%	53.3%	REP by 8.6%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-30 03:39
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	35.5%	62.9%	REP by 27.4%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:59
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	33.1%	60.7%	REP by 27.6%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:39
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	40.1%	46.9%	REP by 6.8%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 17:31
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	32.2%	44.2%	REP by 12.0%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:36
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	43.0%	56.0%	REP by 13.1%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:34
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	33.8%	64.8%	REP by 31.0%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-24 06:47
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	26.3%	64.2%	REP by 38.0%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:03

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

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