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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - North Dakota [3 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2019-07-16 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2019-08-09 01:34 UTC

Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2019-07-16 12:00

1892

34.0%

60.0%

Trump
by 26.0%

2019-07-15
2019-07-17

2019-08-07
2019-08-09 01:34

2019-05-16 12:00

DFM Research

39.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2019-05-14
2019-05-18

2019-07-31
2019-07-31 18:21

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

27.2%

63.0%

REP
by 35.7%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 04:15

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

38.7%

58.3%

REP
by 19.6%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:04

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

44.6%

53.3%

REP
by 8.6%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:39

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

35.5%

62.9%

REP
by 27.4%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:59

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

33.1%

60.7%

REP
by 27.6%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:39

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

40.1%

46.9%

REP
by 6.8%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 17:31

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

32.2%

44.2%

REP
by 12.0%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:36

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

43.0%

56.0%

REP
by 13.1%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:34

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

33.8%

64.8%

REP
by 31.0%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:47

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

26.3%

64.2%

REP
by 38.0%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:03

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

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