2020 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Illinois [20 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-11-01 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:54 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-11-01 00:00	Research Co	55.0%	38.0%	Biden by 17.0%	2020-10-31 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-02 22:04
2020-10-30 00:00	Swayable w/4P	55.1%	43.6%	Biden by 11.5%	2020-10-27 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 05:43
2020-10-29 12:00	Victory Research	54.1%	38.2%	Biden by 15.9%	2020-10-26 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-02 23:28
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	58.0%	39.0%	Biden by 19.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:54
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	58.0%	40.0%	Biden by 18.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 17:54
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	58.0%	40.0%	Biden by 18.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 15:55
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	58.0%	39.0%	Biden by 19.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 15:55
2020-10-25 00:00	Swayable w/4P	54.2%	43.1%	Biden by 11.1%	2020-10-23 2020-10-26	2020-10-28 2020-10-30 20:54
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	57.0%	41.0%	Biden by 16.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 15:55
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	58.0%	39.0%	Biden by 19.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 15:55
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	58.0%	39.0%	Biden by 19.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-02 13:33
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	58.0%	40.0%	Biden by 18.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-02 13:33
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	57.0%	41.0%	Biden by 16.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-02 13:33
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	58.0%	40.0%	Biden by 18.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-02 13:33
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	57.0%	41.0%	Biden by 16.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-02 13:33
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	58.0%	39.0%	Biden by 19.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-02 13:33
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	57.0%	41.0%	Biden by 16.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-31 18:14
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	58.0%	39.0%	Biden by 19.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-31 18:14
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	57.0%	40.0%	Biden by 17.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-31 18:14
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	58.0%	39.0%	Biden by 19.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-31 18:14
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	57.0%	40.0%	Biden by 17.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-31 18:14
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	58.0%	39.0%	Biden by 19.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-31 18:14
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	58.0%	40.0%	Biden by 18.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-31 18:14
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	58.0%	39.0%	Biden by 19.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-31 18:14
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	58.0%	38.0%	Biden by 20.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-26 19:18
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	58.0%	40.0%	Biden by 18.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-26 19:18
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	58.0%	38.0%	Biden by 20.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-26 19:18
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	58.0%	39.0%	Biden by 19.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-26 19:18
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	58.0%	40.0%	Biden by 18.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-26 19:18
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	58.0%	39.0%	Biden by 19.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-26 19:18
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	58.0%	39.0%	Biden by 19.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-26 19:18
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	59.0%	38.0%	Biden by 21.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-26 19:18
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	59.0%	39.0%	Biden by 20.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-26 19:18
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	59.0%	38.0%	Biden by 21.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-26 19:18
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	59.0%	38.0%	Biden by 21.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-26 19:18
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	59.0%	39.0%	Biden by 20.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-26 19:18
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	60.0%	38.0%	Biden by 22.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-26 19:18
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	60.0%	37.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-26 19:18
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	60.0%	37.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-26 19:18
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	60.0%	36.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-26 19:18
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	60.0%	38.0%	Biden by 22.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 18:49
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	60.0%	37.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 05:47
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	60.0%	38.0%	Biden by 22.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-22 20:28
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	60.0%	37.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-21 22:10
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	60.0%	37.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 21:18
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	60.0%	36.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 05:52
2020-09-25 00:00	Victory Research	52.9%	39.8%	Biden by 13.1%	2020-09-23 2020-09-26	2020-09-28 2020-09-29 03:18

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	61.0%	36.0%	Biden by 25.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 16:33
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	61.0%	36.0%	Biden by 25.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-03 22:48
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	60.0%	38.0%	Biden by 22.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 16:30
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	60.0%	37.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 17:55
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	59.0%	38.0%	Biden by 21.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 16:27
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	60.0%	37.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 02:47
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	59.0%	39.0%	Biden by 20.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 16:24
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	61.0%	37.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-09-23 2020-09-24 16:15
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	55.8%	38.8%	DEM by 17.1%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-18 06:42
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	57.6%	40.7%	DEM by 16.9%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:26
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	61.9%	36.8%	DEM by 25.1%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-25 05:29
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	54.8%	44.5%	DEM by 10.3%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 05:43
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	54.6%	42.6%	DEM by 12.0%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-09 06:05
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	54.3%	36.8%	DEM by 17.5%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 08:48
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	48.6%	34.3%	DEM by 14.2%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:23
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	48.6%	50.7%	REP by 2.1%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 08:14
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	43.3%	56.2%	REP by 12.9%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:34
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	41.7%	49.7%	REP by 7.9%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:31

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

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