2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - New Hampshire [4 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-27 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 18:43 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-27 12:00

ARG w/3P

58.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 19.0%

2020-10-26
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-10-30 01:44

2020-10-27 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

54.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-10-20
2020-11-02

2020-11-03
2020-11-03 18:43

2020-10-27 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

54.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-10-20
2020-11-02

2020-11-03
2020-11-03 18:43

2020-10-26 12:00

UNH w/3P

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-10-24
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-10-30 01:41

2020-10-26 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

54.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-10-19
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 16:56

2020-10-26 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

53.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-10-19
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 16:56

2020-10-25 00:00

Saint Anselm w/3P

52.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-10-23
2020-10-26

2020-10-29
2020-10-30 01:29

2020-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

53.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-03 16:56

2020-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

52.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-03 16:56

2020-10-23 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

53.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-11-03 12:21

2020-10-23 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

52.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-11-03 12:21

2020-10-22 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

53.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-11-03 12:21

2020-10-22 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-11-03 12:21

2020-10-21 12:00

UMass Lowell w/3P

53.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-26

2020-10-29
2020-10-29 18:44

2020-10-14 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

55.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-11-03 12:21

2020-10-14 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-11-03 12:21

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-31 20:38

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-31 20:38

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-31 20:38

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-31 20:38

2020-10-11 00:00

UNH w/3P

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-10-09
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-14 01:45

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-31 20:38

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-31 20:38

2020-10-10 12:00

Suffolk w/3P

51.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-10-08
2020-10-12

2020-10-14
2020-10-15 04:18

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-31 20:38

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-31 20:38

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-28 07:08

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-28 07:08

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-28 07:08

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-28 07:08

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

57.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 15.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-28 07:08

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

57.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-28 07:08

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

57.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-28 07:08

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

57.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-28 07:08

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

57.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-28 07:08

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

57.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-28 07:08

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

58.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 17.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-28 07:08

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

58.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 17.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-28 07:08

2020-10-03 00:00

Saint Anselm

53.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-10-01
2020-10-04

2020-10-08
2020-10-09 15:55

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

57.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 15.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-28 07:08

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

57.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 15.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-28 07:08

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-28 07:08

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-28 07:08

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

55.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 19:40

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 06:27

2020-10-01 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

53.1%

45.3%

Biden
by 7.8%

2020-09-30
2020-10-01

2020-10-01
2020-10-02 04:19

2020-10-01 00:00

Emerson [2]

52.3%

45.2%

Biden
by 7.1%

2020-09-30
2020-10-01

2020-10-01
2020-10-02 04:17

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

55.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-22 21:19

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-21 23:00

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

54.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 22:11

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 07:15

2020-09-27 00:00

ARG w/3P

53.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-09-25
2020-09-28

2020-10-06
2020-10-06 18:17

2020-09-26 12:00

UNH w/Lean w/3P [2]

53.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-09-24
2020-09-28

2020-09-30
2020-09-30 19:31

2020-09-26 12:00

UNH w/3P [2]

53.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-09-24
2020-09-28

2020-09-30
2020-09-30 19:28

2020-09-24 12:00

Pulse

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-23
2020-09-25

2020-09-30
2020-09-30 03:34

2020-09-21 12:00

UMass Lowell [2]

53.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-09-17
2020-09-25

2020-09-29
2020-09-29 20:54

2020-09-21 12:00

UMass Lowell w/4P [2]

52.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-17
2020-09-25

2020-09-29
2020-09-29 20:53

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

54.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-06 12:30

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-03 21:39

2020-09-10 00:00

Siena w/3P

45.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-08
2020-09-11

2020-09-12
2020-09-12 20:41

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

60.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 21.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-06 12:25

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

59.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 20.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-26 17:24

2020-08-16 12:00

Saint Anselm

51.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-08-15
2020-08-17

2020-08-20
2020-08-21 05:50

2020-07-22 12:00

UNH

53.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-07-16
2020-07-28

2020-07-30
2020-07-31 00:54

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

59.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 20.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-06 12:23

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

60.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 21.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 06:54

2020-06-20 12:00

UNH

52.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-06-18
2020-06-22

2020-07-30
2020-07-31 00:52

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

61.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 22.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-06 12:20

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-06 12:18

2020-06-15 00:00

Saint Anselm

49.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-06-13
2020-06-16

2020-06-18
2020-06-19 11:33

2020-05-16 12:00

UNH

44.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-05-14
2020-05-18

2020-07-30
2020-07-31 00:50

2020-04-25 12:00

Saint Anselm

50.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-04-23
2020-04-27

2020-04-29
2020-04-30 00:16

2020-02-22 12:00

UNH

44.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-02-19
2020-02-25

2020-02-27
2020-02-27 21:35

2020-02-09 12:00

AtlasIntel

43.5%

45.9%

Trump
by 2.4%

2020-02-08
2020-02-10

2020-02-10
2020-02-11 07:39

2020-02-06 00:00

McLaughlin

45.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-02-05
2020-02-06

2020-02-07
2020-02-07 22:45

2020-01-22 00:00

Marist

51.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-01-20
2020-01-23

2020-01-26
2020-01-26 18:12

2019-11-24 12:00

Emerson w/ Und [2]

45.9%

41.6%

Biden
by 4.3%

2019-11-22
2019-11-26

2019-11-27
2019-11-27 06:25

2019-11-24 12:00

Emerson w/o Und [2]

52.3%

47.7%

Biden
by 4.6%

2019-11-22
2019-11-26

2019-11-27
2019-11-27 06:22

2019-11-16 00:00

Saint Anselm

51.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2019-11-13
2019-11-18

2019-11-19
2019-11-20 01:47

2019-09-08 00:00

Emerson

54.6%

45.4%

Biden
by 9.2%

2019-09-06
2019-09-09

2019-09-10
2019-09-10 19:12

2019-08-04 12:00

Gravis

53.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2019-08-02
2019-08-06

2019-08-13
2019-08-13 15:43

2019-02-22 00:00

Emerson

54.8%

45.2%

Biden
by 9.6%

2019-02-21
2019-02-22

2019-02-23
2019-03-06 16:31

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

47.0%

46.6%

DEM
by 0.4%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 03:55

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

52.0%

46.4%

DEM
by 5.6%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:47

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

54.1%

44.5%

DEM
by 9.6%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:30

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

50.2%

48.9%

DEM
by 1.4%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:52

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

46.8%

48.1%

REP
by 1.3%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:28

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

49.3%

39.4%

DEM
by 10.0%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 16:06

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

38.9%

37.7%

DEM
by 1.2%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:20

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

36.3%

62.5%

REP
by 26.2%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:22

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

31.0%

68.7%

REP
by 37.7%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:35

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

28.4%

57.7%

REP
by 29.4%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 18:54

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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