2020 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Vermont [3 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-27 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 18:39 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	68.0%	28.0%	Biden by 40.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 18:39
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	71.0%	26.0%	Biden by 45.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 18:39
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	70.0%	28.0%	Biden by 42.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 16:49
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	71.0%	26.0%	Biden by 45.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 16:49
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	71.0%	27.0%	Biden by 44.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 16:49
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	69.0%	28.0%	Biden by 41.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 16:49
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	69.0%	29.0%	Biden by 40.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-03 12:07
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	70.0%	28.0%	Biden by 42.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-03 12:07
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	68.0%	30.0%	Biden by 38.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-03 12:07
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	69.0%	29.0%	Biden by 40.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-03 12:07
2020-10-20 00:00	co/efficient	62.0%	32.0%	Biden by 30.0%	2020-10-19 2020-10-20	2020-10-29 2020-10-29 18:33
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	69.0%	29.0%	Biden by 40.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-03 12:07
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	68.0%	29.0%	Biden by 39.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-03 12:07
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	68.0%	30.0%	Biden by 38.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-31 20:21
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	67.0%	30.0%	Biden by 37.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-31 20:21
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	66.0%	31.0%	Biden by 35.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-31 20:21
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	67.0%	30.0%	Biden by 37.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-31 20:21
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	66.0%	31.0%	Biden by 35.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-31 20:21
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	67.0%	30.0%	Biden by 37.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-31 20:21
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	67.0%	31.0%	Biden by 36.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-31 20:21
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	66.0%	32.0%	Biden by 34.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-31 20:21
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	65.0%	32.0%	Biden by 33.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-28 06:38
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	66.0%	32.0%	Biden by 34.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-28 06:38
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	66.0%	32.0%	Biden by 34.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-28 06:38
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	65.0%	32.0%	Biden by 33.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-28 06:38
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	65.0%	32.0%	Biden by 33.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-28 06:38
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	66.0%	32.0%	Biden by 34.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-28 06:38
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	66.0%	32.0%	Biden by 34.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-28 06:38
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	67.0%	32.0%	Biden by 35.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-28 06:38
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	66.0%	32.0%	Biden by 34.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-28 06:38
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	67.0%	31.0%	Biden by 36.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-28 06:38
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	67.0%	32.0%	Biden by 35.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-28 06:38
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	65.0%	33.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-28 06:38
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	65.0%	33.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-28 06:38
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	67.0%	32.0%	Biden by 35.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-28 06:38
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	67.0%	32.0%	Biden by 35.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-28 06:38
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	65.0%	32.0%	Biden by 33.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-28 06:38
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	66.0%	33.0%	Biden by 33.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 19:33
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	64.0%	33.0%	Biden by 31.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 06:22
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	65.0%	33.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-22 21:12
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	64.0%	34.0%	Biden by 30.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-21 22:53
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	65.0%	33.0%	Biden by 32.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 22:06
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	64.0%	35.0%	Biden by 29.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 08:52
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	62.0%	35.0%	Biden by 27.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 23:10
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	64.0%	34.0%	Biden by 30.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-03 17:37
2020-09-09 12:00	Braun Research	56.0%	32.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-09-03 2020-09-15	2020-09-22 2020-09-22 15:49
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	70.0%	29.0%	Biden by 41.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 23:06
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	68.0%	31.0%	Biden by 37.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-26 18:09
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	71.0%	27.0%	Biden by 44.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 23:02
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	69.0%	29.0%	Biden by 40.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 15:37

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	75.0%	20.0%	Biden by 55.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-08 22:59
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	73.0%	21.0%	Biden by 52.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-09-23 2020-09-24 19:33
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	56.7%	30.3%	DEM by 26.4%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-24 18:18
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	66.6%	31.0%	DEM by 35.6%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:15
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	67.5%	30.5%	DEM by 37.0%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-10-06 03:15
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	58.9%	38.8%	DEM by 20.1%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:14
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	50.6%	40.7%	DEM by 9.9%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 11:09
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	53.4%	31.1%	DEM by 22.3%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-18 15:47
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	46.1%	30.4%	DEM by 15.7%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 07:03
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	47.6%	51.1%	REP by 3.5%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 20:04
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	40.8%	57.9%	REP by 17.1%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-24 07:12
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	38.4%	44.4%	REP by 6.0%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:27

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

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