2020 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - New Jersey [14 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-11-01 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 18:40 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-11-01 00:00	Research Co	56.0%	38.0%	Biden by 18.0%	2020-10-31 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-02 22:11
2020-10-30 00:00	Swayable w/4P	58.9%	40.0%	Biden by 18.9%	2020-10-27 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 06:15
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	59.0%	38.0%	Biden by 21.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 18:40
2020-10-27 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	59.0%	38.0%	Biden by 21.0%	2020-10-20 2020-11-02	2020-11-03 2020-11-03 18:40
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	59.0%	39.0%	Biden by 20.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 16:52
2020-10-26 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	59.0%	38.0%	Biden by 21.0%	2020-10-19 2020-11-01	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 16:52
2020-10-25 00:00	Swayable w/4P	61.8%	37.7%	Biden by 24.1%	2020-10-23 2020-10-26	2020-10-28 2020-10-30 21:03
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	60.0%	37.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 16:52
2020-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	60.0%	38.0%	Biden by 22.0%	2020-10-17 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-03 16:52
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	60.0%	38.0%	Biden by 22.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-03 12:11
2020-10-23 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	60.0%	37.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-10-16 2020-10-30	2020-10-31 2020-11-03 12:11
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [28]	60.0%	37.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-03 12:11
2020-10-22 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [28]	60.0%	38.0%	Biden by 22.0%	2020-10-15 2020-10-29	2020-10-30 2020-11-03 12:11
2020-10-21 12:00	Rutgers LV [2]	61.0%	37.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-10-18 2020-10-24	2020-10-29 2020-10-29 18:40
2020-10-21 12:00	Rutgers RV [2]	59.0%	37.0%	Biden by 22.0%	2020-10-18 2020-10-24	2020-10-29 2020-10-29 18:38
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	60.0%	36.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-03 12:11
2020-10-14 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	60.0%	37.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-28	2020-10-29 2020-11-03 12:11
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	59.0%	36.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-31 20:28
2020-10-13 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	60.0%	37.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-09-29 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-31 20:28
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	60.0%	36.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-31 20:28
2020-10-11 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	60.0%	37.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-09-27 2020-10-25	2020-10-26 2020-10-31 20:28
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	60.0%	37.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-31 20:28
2020-10-10 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	60.0%	36.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-24	2020-10-25 2020-10-31 20:28
2020-10-10 12:00	Stockton	56.3%	35.8%	Biden by 20.5%	2020-10-07 2020-10-13	2020-10-16 2020-10-16 22:30

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	60.0%	36.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-31 20:28
2020-10-10 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	60.0%	37.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-09-26 2020-10-23	2020-10-24 2020-10-31 20:28
2020-10-09 12:00	DKC Analytics	56.0%	34.0%	Biden by 22.0%	2020-10-05 2020-10-13	2020-10-20 2020-10-21 05:49
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	60.0%	36.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-28 06:46
2020-10-09 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	61.0%	36.0%	Biden by 25.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-22	2020-10-23 2020-10-28 06:46
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	61.0%	36.0%	Biden by 25.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-28 06:46
2020-10-08 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	61.0%	35.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-09-24 2020-10-21	2020-10-22 2020-10-28 06:46
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	61.0%	36.0%	Biden by 25.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-28 06:46
2020-10-07 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	61.0%	35.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-09-23 2020-10-20	2020-10-21 2020-10-28 06:46
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	61.0%	35.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-28 06:46
2020-10-05 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	61.0%	36.0%	Biden by 25.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-19	2020-10-20 2020-10-28 06:46
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	61.0%	35.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-28 06:46
2020-10-05 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	61.0%	36.0%	Biden by 25.0%	2020-09-21 2020-10-18	2020-10-19 2020-10-28 06:46
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	61.0%	35.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-28 06:46
2020-10-04 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	61.0%	35.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-09-20 2020-10-17	2020-10-18 2020-10-28 06:46
2020-10-03 00:00	Fairleigh Dickenson RV [2]	52.0%	35.0%	Biden by 17.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-05	2020-10-09 2020-10-09 17:35
2020-10-03 00:00	Fairleigh Dickenson LV [2]	53.0%	38.0%	Biden by 15.0%	2020-09-30 2020-10-05	2020-10-09 2020-10-09 17:34
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	61.0%	36.0%	Biden by 25.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-28 06:46
2020-10-02 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	61.0%	35.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-16	2020-10-17 2020-10-28 06:46
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	61.0%	36.0%	Biden by 25.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-28 06:46
2020-10-02 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	60.0%	35.0%	Biden by 25.0%	2020-09-18 2020-10-15	2020-10-16 2020-10-28 06:46
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	60.0%	36.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 19:35
2020-10-01 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	60.0%	35.0%	Biden by 25.0%	2020-09-17 2020-10-14	2020-10-15 2020-10-23 06:23
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	60.0%	36.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-22 21:14
2020-09-29 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	60.0%	36.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-13	2020-10-14 2020-10-21 22:55
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [56]	60.0%	37.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 22:08
2020-09-29 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [56]	59.0%	36.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-09-15 2020-10-12	2020-10-13 2020-10-18 07:18
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	60.0%	36.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 15:19
2020-09-16 00:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	60.0%	37.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-09-01 2020-09-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-03 21:35
2020-09-12 12:00	DKC Analytics	52.0%	38.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2020-09-08 2020-09-16	2020-10-03 2020-10-04 03:58
2020-09-06 00:00	Emerson w/Lean [2]	57.9%	39.6%	Biden by 18.3%	2020-09-04 2020-09-07	2020-09-08 2020-09-08 19:53
2020-09-06 00:00	Emerson [2]	55.0%	37.5%	Biden by 17.5%	2020-09-04 2020-09-07	2020-09-08 2020-09-08 19:48
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	57.0%	40.0%	Biden by 17.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 15:17
2020-08-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	58.0%	38.0%	Biden by 20.0%	2020-08-01 2020-08-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-26 17:26
2020-08-09 12:00	DKC Analytics	52.0%	33.0%	Biden by 19.0%	2020-08-05 2020-08-13	2020-08-20 2020-08-21 17:03
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	61.0%	37.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 15:15
2020-07-16 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	62.0%	36.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2020-07-01 2020-07-31	2020-09-23 2020-09-25 06:56
2020-07-10 00:00	DKC Analytics	51.0%	33.0%	Biden by 18.0%	2020-07-07 2020-07-12	2020-07-28 2020-07-28 18:55
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey LV [2]	61.0%	37.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-10-02 2020-10-07 15:12
2020-06-19 12:00	SurveyMonkey RV [2]	62.0%	34.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2020-06-08 2020-06-30	2020-09-23 2020-09-24 19:03
2020-05-02 12:00	Quinnipiac	54.0%	35.0%	Biden by 19.0%	2020-04-30 2020-05-04	2020-05-06 2020-05-06 19:50
2020-04-27 12:00	Rutgers (RV) [2]	56.0%	33.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-04-22 2020-05-02	2020-05-14 2020-05-15 03:29
2020-04-27 12:00	Rutgers (All) [2]	55.0%	32.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2020-04-22 2020-05-02	2020-05-14 2020-05-15 03:26
2020-04-18 00:00	Monmouth	54.0%	38.0%	Biden by 16.0%	2020-04-16 2020-04-19	2020-04-23 2020-04-23 15:45
2020-02-14 12:00	Fairleigh Dickinson RV [2]	53.0%	35.0%	Biden by 18.0%	2020-02-12 2020-02-16	2020-02-18 2020-02-19 14:52
2020-02-14 12:00	Fairleigh Dickinson All [2]	52.0%	34.0%	Biden by 18.0%	2020-02-12 2020-02-16	2020-02-18 2020-02-19 06:46
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	55.0%	41.0%	DEM by 14.0%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-20 03:59
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	58.4%	40.6%	DEM by 17.8%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:48
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	57.3%	41.7%	DEM by 15.6%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-30 03:32
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	52.9%	46.2%	DEM by 6.7%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:54
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	56.1%	40.3%	DEM by 15.8%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:30
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	53.7%	35.9%	DEM by 17.9%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 17:06
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	43.0%	40.6%	DEM by 2.4%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:23
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	42.6%	56.2%	REP by 13.6%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:24
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	39.2%	60.1%	REP by 20.9%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-24 06:37
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	38.6%	52.0%	REP by 13.4%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 18:55

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

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