2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - National Summary

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-02-24 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-02-28 03:50 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by election day!
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY!

Leaders:  Best Polled: ||
Democrat: Republican: History Shown in Graphs: 

Summary View

Probabilistic View (Indep States)

Median:
Trump by 92
1σ (68.27%) range:
Trump by 80 ----- Trump by 114
2σ (95.45%) range:
Trump by 50 ---------- Trump by 134
Odds:
Biden: 0.1% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 99.9%

Probabilistic View (Uniform Swing)

Median:
Trump by 88
1σ (68.27%) range:
Trump by 88 ----- Trump by 138
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 2 ---------- Trump by 166
Odds:
Biden: 3.1% — Tie: 1.1% — Trump: 95.8%

Categorization View

BidenTrumpMargin
Trump BestBiden/Trump TIE
ExpectedBiden/Trump TIE
Biden BestBiden/Trump TIE

Probabilistic View

Categorization View

State Breakdown by Category

Click on state names for polling details.

Switch to Spectrum View

Solid Biden
StateEVAhead by
District of Columbia

3

(((((84.5%)))))

Hawaii

4

(((((31.7%)))))

Vermont

3

(((((30.9%)))))

Massachusetts

11

23.3%

Maryland

10

(22.8%)

California

54

21.3%

Rhode Island

4

(((18.8%)))

Maine (CD1)

1

(((16.7%)))

Delaware

3

(((((16.3%)))))

New Jersey

14

(((((14.0%)))))

Connecticut

7

(13.8%)

Washington

12

13.7%

Oregon

8

(((12.9%)))

Illinois

19

12.7%

New York

28

11.7%

Strong Biden
StateEVAhead by
New Mexico

5

(9.3%)

New Hampshire

4

7.6%

Colorado

10

6.5%

Weak Biden
StateEVAhead by
Minnesota

10

(4.6%)

Virginia

13

3.0%

Maine (All)

2

((3.0%))

Weak Trump
StateEVAhead by
Wisconsin

10

2.9%

Pennsylvania

19

3.5%

•  Michigan

15

4.1%

•  Nebraska (CD2)

1

(((((4.7%)))))

Strong Trump
StateEVAhead by
North Carolina

16

5.6%

Arizona

11

5.7%

Nevada

6

5.7%

Georgia

16

7.8%

Texas

40

8.3%

Maine (CD2)

1

(((8.6%)))

Florida

30

8.7%

Iowa

6

9.6%

Ohio

17

9.9%

Solid Trump
StateEVAhead by
Alaska

3

(((10.8%)))

Indiana

11

((((12.6%))))

Kansas

6

(14.1%)

South Carolina

9

14.7%

Mississippi

6

((((15.3%))))

Montana

4

16.5%

Missouri

10

16.7%

Louisiana

8

((((17.4%))))

Nebraska (CD1)

1

(((((17.9%)))))

Nebraska (All)

2

(((19.8%)))

Utah

6

(((22.0%)))

Alabama

9

((((24.4%))))

South Dakota

3

((25.6%))

Kentucky

8

((25.8%))

Oklahoma

7

(25.9%)

Arkansas

6

(((26.6%)))

North Dakota

3

((((26.8%))))

Tennessee

11

27.8%

Idaho

4

((((29.7%))))

West Virginia

4

((((31.5%))))

Wyoming

3

((((43.0%))))

Nebraska (CD3)

1

(((((48.0%)))))

 

Ten most needed polls:
Nebraska (CD2), Maine (All), New Jersey, Maine (CD2), Indiana,
Delaware, Nebraska (CD1), Alaska, Mississippi, Oregon

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

The number of parentheses around the averages indicates the number of "generic" results that were added to fill out the poll average.

Only results with no parentheses represent a true average of only polls asking specifically about the two candidates shown.

 

Weighted Average* of Time Covered by Poll Averages for these candidates is 5.0 years.

*Time covered by poll average in each state weighted by abs(1/margin) in order to give higher weight to closer states.

 

List of all polls for this candidate pair: HTML

 

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

 

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