2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - National Summary

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-07-18 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-07-22 15:19 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled: ||
Democrat: Republican: History Shown in Graphs: 

Categorization View

Taking Current Poll Averages at Face Value

2024 Electoral College Summary


BidenTrumpMargin
Trump BestBiden/Trump TIE
ExpectedBiden/Trump TIE
Biden BestBiden/Trump TIE

This summary assumes that any state with a current poll average margin of less than 5% could go either way, leading to the two best cases where one candidate wins all of these states. The "Expected" case is when each candidate wins every state they currently lead, regardless of how small that lead may be.

Solid Biden
StateEVAhead by
District of Columbia

3

(((((84.5%)))))

Vermont

3

(((29.8%)))

Hawaii

4

(((27.5%)))

Massachusetts

11

24.2%

Maryland

10

23.2%

California

54

22.4%

Delaware

3

((((17.0%))))

Maine (CD1)

1

(((16.7%)))

Connecticut

7

13.2%

Illinois

19

12.7%

Rhode Island

4

12.2%

Oregon

8

11.9%

New York

28

10.8%

Strong Biden
StateEVAhead by
Washington

12

9.1%

Colorado

10

6.8%

New Jersey

14

(5.7%)

Weak Biden
StateEVAhead by
New Mexico

5

4.3%

Minnesota

10

3.0%

New Hampshire

4

2.2%

Maine (All)

2

1.3%

Nebraska (CD2)

1

((1.3%))

Virginia

13

1.2%

Weak Trump
StateEVAhead by
Wisconsin

10

1.0%

Michigan

15

3.0%

o  Pennsylvania

19

4.4%

Georgia

16

4.5%

North Carolina

16

4.5%

Nevada

6

4.6%

Strong Trump
StateEVAhead by
Florida

30

5.7%

Arizona

11

6.2%

Maine (CD2)

1

(((8.6%)))

Texas

40

8.8%

Ohio

17

8.9%

Solid Trump
StateEVAhead by
Alaska

3

11.2%

Iowa

6

11.2%

Kansas

6

12.2%

Missouri

10

13.8%

Mississippi

6

(((14.5%)))

South Carolina

9

15.3%

Utah

6

15.5%

Indiana

11

((15.9%))

Louisiana

8

((16.1%))

Nebraska (All)

2

17.2%

Nebraska (CD1)

1

(((((17.9%)))))

Montana

4

19.5%

South Dakota

3

23.6%

Tennessee

11

23.7%

Kentucky

8

(24.8%)

Arkansas

6

(24.9%)

Alabama

9

((25.0%))

Oklahoma

7

25.4%

Idaho

4

((31.1%))

North Dakota

3

((31.8%))

West Virginia

4

((35.2%))

Wyoming

3

(((44.8%)))

Nebraska (CD3)

1

(((((48.0%)))))

Switch to Spectrum View

Click on states for polling details.

Probabilistic View

Accounting For Time Left Before Election

2024 EC (Indep States Probs)

Accounting For Time Left Before Election


Median:
Trump by 96
1σ (68.27%) range:
Trump by 58 ----- Trump by 128
2σ (95.45%) range:
Trump by 8 ---------- Trump by 160
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 44 --------------- Trump by 194
Odds:
Biden: 1.4% — Tie: 0.1% — Trump: 98.5%

This model assumes poll errors in states are independent of each other. State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020. This model accounts for how things can change in the time remaining.

2024 EC (Uniform Swing Probs)

Accounting For Time Left Before Election


Median:
Trump by 86
1σ (68.27%) range:
Trump by 36 ----- Trump by 184
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 160 ---------- Trump by 228
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 326 --------------- Trump by 308
Odds:
Biden: 9.2% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 90.8%

This model assumes poll errors in states will be identical nationwide. State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020. This model accounts for how things can change in the time remaining.

Probabilistic View

If The Election Was Always Now

2024 EC (Indep States Probs)

If The Election Was Always Now


Median:
Trump by 108
1σ (68.27%) range:
Trump by 82 ----- Trump by 132
2σ (95.45%) range:
Trump by 46 ---------- Trump by 154
3σ (99.73%) range:
Trump by 4 --------------- Trump by 180
Odds:
Biden: 0.1% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 99.9%

This model assumes poll errors in states are independent of each other. State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how the final Election Graphs poll averages have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020. This model shows how things would look each day if that day was election day.

2024 EC (Uniform Swing Probs)

If The Election Was Always Now


Median:
Trump by 114
1σ (68.27%) range:
Trump by 66 ----- Trump by 156
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 78 ---------- Trump by 204
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 160 --------------- Trump by 228
Odds:
Biden: 3.6% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 96.4%

This model assumes poll errors in states will be identical nationwide. State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how the final Election Graphs poll averages have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020. This model shows how things would look each day if that day was election day.

 

Ten most needed polls:
Nebraska (CD2), Maine (CD2), Nebraska (CD1), Delaware, Mississippi,
Maine (CD1), New Jersey, Maine (All), Indiana, Louisiana

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

The number of parentheses around the averages indicates the number of "generic" results that were added to fill out the poll average.

Only results with no parentheses represent a true average of only polls asking specifically about the two candidates shown.

 

Weighted Average* of Time Covered by Poll Averages for these candidates is 2.1 years.

*Time covered by poll average in each state weighted by abs(1/margin) in order to give higher weight to closer states.

 

List of all polls for this candidate pair: HTML

 

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

 

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