2024 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump - National Summary

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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - National Summary

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-05-21 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2023-05-26 18:27 UTC

Best Polled:

Summary View

	Biden	Margin
Probabilistic View (Indep States)
Median:	Trump by 18
1σ (68.27%) range:	Biden by 26 ----- Trump by 56
2σ (95.45%) range:	Biden by 76 ---------- Trump by 88
Odds:	Biden: 35.0% — Tie: 1.3% — Trump: 63.7%
Probabilistic View (Uniform Swing)
Median:	Trump by 18
1σ (68.27%) range:	Biden by 100 ----- Trump by 96
2σ (95.45%) range:	Biden by 162 ---------- Trump by 162
Odds:	Biden: 34.8% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 65.2%
Categorization View
Trump Best		Biden/Trump TIE
Expected		Biden/Trump TIE
Biden Best		Biden/Trump TIE

Probabilistic View

Categorization View

State Breakdown by Category

Click on state names for polling details.

Switch to Spectrum View

Solid Biden
State	EV	Ahead by
District of Columbia	3	(((((84.5%)))))
Hawaii	4	(((((31.7%)))))
Vermont	3	(((((30.9%)))))
California	54	((((27.3%))))
Massachusetts	11	((27.2%))
Maryland	10	(((((24.0%)))))
Rhode Island	4	(((19.0%)))
Maine (CD1)	1	(((((18.8%)))))
Delaware	3	(((((16.3%)))))
Washington	12	(((14.7%)))
New Jersey	14	(((((14.0%)))))
Connecticut	7	(13.8%)
Illinois	19	((13.5%))
Oregon	8	(((12.9%)))
Maine (All)	2	((((11.1%))))
New York	28	10.9%

Strong Biden
State	EV	Ahead by
New Mexico	5	((9.3%))
Minnesota	10	((((6.9%))))
Colorado	10	6.8%
Virginia	13	(((5.6%)))

Weak Biden
State	EV	Ahead by
New Hampshire	4	3.4%
Michigan	15	2.2%
Pennsylvania	19	1.8%
Maine (CD2)	1	(((((1.6%)))))

Weak Trump
State	EV	Ahead by
• Wisconsin	10	0.2%
North Carolina	16	0.5%
Georgia	16	0.7%
Nevada	6	1.1%
Arizona	11	1.8%
Florida	30	3.1%
Nebraska (CD2)	1	(((((4.7%)))))

Strong Trump
State	EV	Ahead by
Texas	40	5.2%
Iowa	6	9.2%

Solid Trump
State	EV	Ahead by
South Carolina	9	(((12.1%)))
Indiana	11	(((((13.0%)))))
Montana	4	((((13.1%))))
Ohio	17	13.6%
Kansas	6	((15.1%))
Mississippi	6	((((15.4%))))
Missouri	10	16.4%
Alaska	3	(((((17.2%)))))
Louisiana	8	((((17.8%))))
Nebraska (CD1)	1	(((((17.9%)))))
Tennessee	11	((((20.1%))))
South Dakota	3	((((20.6%))))
Nebraska (All)	2	(((((22.8%)))))
Kentucky	8	((((23.7%))))
Alabama	9	(((((24.5%)))))
Arkansas	6	((((24.6%))))
North Dakota	3	(((((24.9%)))))
Utah	6	((((25.6%))))
West Virginia	4	(((((26.7%)))))
Oklahoma	7	((28.6%))
Idaho	4	(((((31.6%)))))
Wyoming	3	(((((40.4%)))))
Nebraska (CD3)	1	(((((48.0%)))))

Ten most needed polls:
Maine (CD2), Wisconsin, Nebraska (CD2), Minnesota, Virginia,
Indiana, New Jersey, Maine (All), North Carolina, Delaware

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and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

For more information, read the FAQ.

The number of parentheses around the averages indicates the number of "generic" results that were added to fill out the poll average.

Only results with no parentheses represent a true average of only polls asking specifically about the two candidates shown.

Weighted Average* of Time Covered by Poll Averages for these candidates is 3.8 years.

*Time covered by poll average in each state weighted by abs(1/margin) in order to give higher weight to closer states.

List of all polls for this candidate pair: HTML

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

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