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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - National Summary

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-09-16 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2023-09-22 23:16 UTC

Best Polled: ||
Democrat: Republican: History Shown in Graphs: 

Summary View

Probabilistic View (Indep States)

Median:
Trump by 16
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 24 ----- Trump by 54
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 74 ---------- Trump by 86
Odds:
Biden: 34.0% — Tie: 1.9% — Trump: 64.1%

Probabilistic View (Uniform Swing)

Median:
Trump by 36
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 68 ----- Trump by 88
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 242 ---------- Trump by 154
Odds:
Biden: 46.2% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 53.8%

Categorization View

BidenTrumpMargin
Trump BestBiden/Trump TIE
ExpectedBiden/Trump TIE
Biden BestBiden/Trump TIE

Probabilistic View

Categorization View

State Breakdown by Category

Click on state names for polling details.

Switch to Spectrum View

Solid Biden
StateEVAhead by
District of Columbia

3

(((((84.5%)))))

Hawaii

4

(((((31.7%)))))

Vermont

3

(((((30.9%)))))

Massachusetts

11

((27.2%))

California

54

26.2%

Maryland

10

((((25.6%))))

Maine (CD1)

1

(((((18.8%)))))

Rhode Island

4

(((18.8%)))

New York

28

16.5%

Delaware

3

(((((16.3%)))))

Washington

12

((15.4%))

Illinois

19

(14.1%)

New Jersey

14

(((((14.0%)))))

Connecticut

7

(13.8%)

Oregon

8

(((12.9%)))

Maine (All)

2

((((11.1%))))

Strong Biden
StateEVAhead by
New Mexico

5

(9.3%)

New Hampshire

4

8.6%

Virginia

13

7.3%

Colorado

10

7.0%

Minnesota

10

((((6.9%))))

Weak Biden
StateEVAhead by
Wisconsin

10

3.1%

Maine (CD2)

1

(((((1.6%)))))

Michigan

15

1.4%

•  Pennsylvania

19

0.9%

Nevada

6

0.3%

Weak Trump
StateEVAhead by
Arizona

11

0.3%

North Carolina

16

1.3%

Georgia

16

2.7%

Florida

30

3.3%

Nebraska (CD2)

1

(((((4.7%)))))

Strong Trump
StateEVAhead by
Texas

40

5.0%

Iowa

6

8.6%

Solid Trump
StateEVAhead by
South Carolina

9

(((11.5%)))

Indiana

11

(((((13.0%)))))

Ohio

17

13.2%

Alaska

3

((((13.5%))))

Montana

4

(((14.2%)))

Kansas

6

((15.0%))

Mississippi

6

((((15.3%))))

Missouri

10

16.4%

Louisiana

8

((((17.4%))))

Nebraska (CD1)

1

(((((17.9%)))))

South Dakota

3

((((20.6%))))

Tennessee

11

(((21.0%)))

Nebraska (All)

2

(((((22.8%)))))

Arkansas

6

((((24.1%))))

Alabama

9

((((24.4%))))

Kentucky

8

(((24.7%)))

North Dakota

3

(((((24.9%)))))

Utah

6

((((25.6%))))

West Virginia

4

(((((26.7%)))))

Oklahoma

7

((27.5%))

Idaho

4

(((((31.6%)))))

Wyoming

3

(((((40.4%)))))

Nebraska (CD3)

1

(((((48.0%)))))

 

Ten most needed polls:
Maine (CD2), Nebraska (CD2), Minnesota, Indiana, New Jersey,
Maine (All), Arizona, Nevada, Delaware, Alaska

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

The number of parentheses around the averages indicates the number of "generic" results that were added to fill out the poll average.

Only results with no parentheses represent a true average of only polls asking specifically about the two candidates shown.

 

Weighted Average* of Time Covered by Poll Averages for these candidates is 3.4 years.

*Time covered by poll average in each state weighted by abs(1/margin) in order to give higher weight to closer states.

 

List of all polls for this candidate pair: HTML

 

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

 

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