2024 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Michigan [15 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-11-28 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2023-12-06 01:52 UTC

Best Polled:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2023-11-28 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/3P	38.0%	23.0%	39.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2023-11-27 2023-11-29	2023-12-05 2023-12-06 01:52
2023-11-13 12:00	EPIC	41.0%	13.0%	46.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-11-10 2023-11-16	2023-11-18 2023-11-19 07:03
2023-11-03 12:00	Morning Consult w/4P [2]	38.0%	25.0%	37.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2023-10-30 2023-11-07	2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:02
2023-11-03 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	43.0%	14.0%	43.0%	TIED	2023-10-30 2023-11-07	2023-11-10 2023-11-10 19:57
2023-11-02 00:00	Emerson RV [2]	42.6%	16.4%	41.0%	Biden by 1.6%	2023-10-30 2023-11-04	2023-11-09 2023-11-10 01:40
2023-11-02 00:00	Emerson LV [2]	44.4%	12.6%	43.0%	Biden by 1.4%	2023-10-30 2023-11-04	2023-11-09 2023-11-10 01:37
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV w/3P [6]	34.0%	32.0%	34.0%	TIED	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-07 16:54
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV w/3P [6]	31.0%	35.0%	34.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-07 16:51
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV Definitely [6]	35.0%	32.0%	33.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 17:32
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV w/Lean [6]	46.0%	8.0%	46.0%	TIED	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 17:29
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV Definitely [6]	31.0%	35.0%	34.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 16:03
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV w/Lean [6]	43.0%	9.0%	48.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 15:59

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2023-10-08 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/3P [2]	38.0%	22.0%	40.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2023-10-07 2023-10-09	2023-10-15 2023-10-16 04:43
2023-10-08 12:00	Redfield & Wilton [2]	41.0%	18.0%	41.0%	TIED	2023-10-07 2023-10-09	2023-10-15 2023-10-16 04:39
2023-10-08 00:00	Morning Consult	44.0%	12.0%	44.0%	TIED	2023-10-05 2023-10-10	2023-10-19 2023-10-19 15:52
2023-10-05 12:00	MRG Total [2]	35.1%	23.3%	41.6%	Trump by 6.5%	2023-10-02 2023-10-08	2023-10-11 2023-10-12 05:50
2023-10-05 12:00	MRG wo/Lean [2]	31.1%	29.2%	39.7%	Trump by 8.6%	2023-10-02 2023-10-08	2023-10-11 2023-10-12 05:46
2023-10-03 00:00	Emerson	44.1%	13.4%	42.5%	Biden by 1.6%	2023-10-01 2023-10-04	2023-10-16 2023-10-17 01:00
2023-09-27 00:00	PPP	48.0%	8.0%	44.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2023-09-26 2023-09-27	2023-09-29 2023-09-29 15:51
2023-09-10 00:00	Susquehanna	46.0%	11.0%	43.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2023-09-07 2023-09-12	2023-09-15 2023-09-15 21:06
2023-08-09 00:00	EPIC Total [2]	46.0%	9.0%	45.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2023-08-06 2023-08-11	2023-08-17 2023-08-18 05:34
2023-08-09 00:00	EPIC wo/Lean [2]	43.0%	17.0%	40.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2023-08-06 2023-08-11	2023-08-17 2023-08-18 05:29
2023-08-02 00:00	Emerson w/3P [2]	41.2%	15.5%	43.3%	Trump by 2.1%	2023-08-01 2023-08-02	2023-08-04 2023-08-05 02:16
2023-08-02 00:00	Emerson [2]	44.1%	12.3%	43.6%	Biden by 0.5%	2023-08-01 2023-08-02	2023-08-04 2023-08-05 02:12
2023-07-12 12:00	Mitchell	45.0%	12.0%	43.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-07-11 2023-07-13	2023-07-21 2023-07-22 00:29
2023-07-09 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies Total [2]	45.0%	11.0%	44.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2023-07-08 2023-07-10	2023-07-13 2023-07-14 07:16
2023-07-09 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2]	40.0%	21.0%	39.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2023-07-08 2023-07-10	2023-07-13 2023-07-14 07:13
2023-06-21 12:00	Prime w/NL [2]	40.0%	17.0%	43.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2023-06-14 2023-06-28	2023-07-13 2023-08-15 14:24
2023-06-21 12:00	Prime [2]	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	TIED	2023-06-14 2023-06-28	2023-07-13 2023-07-14 05:44
2023-06-11 12:00	EPIC wo/Lean [2]	41.0%	21.0%	38.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2023-06-08 2023-06-14	2023-06-16 2023-08-09 01:18
2023-06-11 12:00	EPIC Total [2]	44.0%	12.0%	44.0%	TIED	2023-06-08 2023-06-14	2023-06-16 2023-06-16 21:17
2023-04-18 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies	45.0%	13.0%	42.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2023-04-17 2023-04-19	2023-04-21 2023-04-23 21:10
2022-12-07 00:00	PPP	50.0%	7.0%	43.0%	Biden by 7.0%	2022-12-06 2022-12-07	2022-12-09 2023-03-24 07:09
2022-12-03 12:00	EPIC	47.0%	10.0%	43.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2022-11-30 2022-12-06	2022-12-09 2023-03-24 07:03
2022-10-30 00:00	Emerson	44.4%	8.9%	46.7%	Trump by 2.3%	2022-10-28 2022-10-31	2022-11-02 2023-03-24 02:39
2022-10-13 12:00	Emerson	43.7%	11.9%	44.4%	Trump by 0.7%	2022-10-12 2022-10-14	2022-10-18 2023-03-23 04:21
2022-09-17 12:00	EPIC	48.0%	8.0%	44.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2022-09-15 2022-09-19	2022-09-22 2023-03-23 02:10
2022-08-16 00:00	Blueprint	41.2%	18.0%	40.8%	Biden by 0.4%	2022-08-15 2022-08-16	2022-08-18 2023-03-21 03:53
2022-02-03 00:00	Blueprint	38.2%	21.4%	40.4%	Trump by 2.2%	2022-02-01 2022-02-04	2022-02-10 2023-03-20 14:11
2021-11-14 00:00	Fabrizio Lee Definitely [2]	38.0%	17.0%	45.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2021-11-11 2021-11-16	2021-11-21 2023-07-04 00:46
2021-11-14 00:00	Fabrizio Lee Total [2]	41.0%	6.0%	53.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2021-11-11 2021-11-16	2021-11-21 2023-03-20 13:24
2020-11-03 12:00	Election2020	50.6%	1.5%	47.8%	DEM by 2.8%	2020-11-03 2020-11-03	2020-11-03 2023-03-15 07:00
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	47.3%	5.2%	47.5%	REP by 0.2%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-20 03:01
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	54.2%	1.1%	44.7%	DEM by 9.5%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:37
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	57.4%	1.6%	41.0%	DEM by 16.5%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-30 03:06
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	51.2%	1.0%	47.8%	DEM by 3.4%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:21
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	51.3%	2.6%	46.2%	DEM by 5.1%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 09:53
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	51.7%	9.8%	38.5%	DEM by 13.2%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 09:35
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	43.8%	19.9%	36.4%	DEM by 7.4%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 03:25
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	45.7%	0.8%	53.6%	REP by 7.9%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 10:27
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	40.2%	0.5%	59.2%	REP by 19.0%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-22 03:42
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	42.5%	8.5%	49.0%	REP by 6.5%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:58

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and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

For more information, read the FAQ.

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