2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Michigan [15 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-07-18 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-07-30 01:11 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

2024 Michigan [15 EV] Poll Average

Biden		Trump

2024 Michigan [15 EV] Probabilities

Biden		Trump

If the election was now:

Biden		Trump
/td>

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2024-07-18 00:00	PPP [2]	46.0%	5.0%	49.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-07-17 2024-07-18	2024-07-18 2024-07-19 16:35
2024-07-18 00:00	PPP w/4P [2]	44.0%	11.0%	45.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-07-17 2024-07-18	2024-07-18 2024-07-19 16:32
2024-07-17 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/5P	41.0%	17.0%	42.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-07-16 2024-07-18	2024-07-21 2024-07-21 19:01
2024-07-16 12:00	Trafalgar w/5P	43.0%	11.9%	45.1%	Trump by 2.1%	2024-07-15 2024-07-17	2024-07-19 2024-07-19 17:08
2024-07-16 00:00	Emerson w/6P [2]	39.9%	17.5%	42.6%	Trump by 2.7%	2024-07-15 2024-07-16	2024-07-18 2024-07-19 05:05
2024-07-16 00:00	Emerson [2]	42.1%	12.8%	45.1%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-07-15 2024-07-16	2024-07-18 2024-07-19 04:55
2024-07-15 12:00	EPIC-MRA w/5P [2]	36.0%	21.0%	43.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2024-07-13 2024-07-17	2024-07-21 2024-07-21 19:51
2024-07-15 12:00	EPIC-MRA [2]	42.0%	9.0%	49.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2024-07-13 2024-07-17	2024-07-21 2024-07-21 19:50

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2024-07-15 00:00	Civiqs w/3P	43.0%	11.0%	46.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-07-13 2024-07-16	2024-07-19 2024-07-19 22:49
2024-07-12 12:00	MRG	36.0%	25.0%	39.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-07-11 2024-07-13	2024-07-15 2024-07-15 17:55
2024-07-12 00:00	PPP	46.0%	7.0%	47.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-07-11 2024-07-12	2024-07-22 2024-07-24 17:08
2024-07-09 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/5P	43.0%	15.0%	42.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2024-07-08 2024-07-10	2024-07-15 2024-07-16 04:47
2024-07-08 12:00	YouGov LV w/5P [2]	42.0%	14.0%	44.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-07-04 2024-07-12	2024-07-15 2024-07-16 17:13
2024-07-08 12:00	YouGov RV w/5P [2]	40.0%	18.0%	42.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-07-04 2024-07-12	2024-07-15 2024-07-16 17:12
2024-07-05 00:00	Echelon w/6P [3]	40.0%	17.0%	43.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-07-01 2024-07-08	2024-07-29 2024-07-30 01:11
2024-07-05 00:00	Echelon Definitely [3]	30.0%	35.0%	35.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-07-01 2024-07-08	2024-07-29 2024-07-30 01:09
2024-07-05 00:00	Echelon Total [3]	45.0%	7.0%	48.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-07-01 2024-07-08	2024-07-29 2024-07-30 01:08
2024-07-03 12:00	Morning Consult w/6P [2]	45.0%	16.0%	39.0%	Biden by 6.0%	2024-07-01 2024-07-05	2024-07-06 2024-07-06 18:46
2024-07-03 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	48.0%	9.0%	43.0%	Biden by 5.0%	2024-07-01 2024-07-05	2024-07-06 2024-07-06 16:19
2024-07-01 12:00	Emerson	44.0%	11.0%	45.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-06-30 2024-07-02	2024-07-08 2024-07-09 00:23
2024-06-30 12:00	Remington	42.0%	13.0%	45.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-06-29 2024-07-01	2024-07-08 2024-07-08 16:35
2024-06-29 12:00	1983 Labs w/4P	41.0%	14.0%	45.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-06-28 2024-06-30	2024-07-08 2024-07-08 22:38
2024-06-24 00:00	EPIC-MRA w/Lean [4]	45.0%	6.0%	49.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-06-21 2024-06-26	2024-06-29 2024-06-30 03:05
2024-06-24 00:00	EPIC-MRA [4]	39.0%	16.0%	45.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2024-06-21 2024-06-26	2024-06-29 2024-06-30 02:56
2024-06-24 00:00	EPIC-MRA w/Lean w/5P [4]	38.0%	21.0%	41.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-06-21 2024-06-26	2024-06-29 2024-06-30 02:47
2024-06-24 00:00	EPIC-MRA w/5P [4]	34.0%	27.0%	39.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-06-21 2024-06-26	2024-06-29 2024-06-30 02:33
2024-06-16 00:00	P2 Insights w/3P	40.0%	17.0%	43.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-06-11 2024-06-20	2024-06-27 2024-06-27 21:09
2024-06-16 00:00	Emerson w/5P [3]	41.9%	14.1%	44.0%	Trump by 2.1%	2024-06-13 2024-06-18	2024-06-20 2024-06-21 04:05
2024-06-16 00:00	Emerson w/Lean [3]	49.3%	0.0%	50.7%	Trump by 1.4%	2024-06-13 2024-06-18	2024-06-20 2024-06-21 03:56
2024-06-16 00:00	Emerson [3]	44.7%	9.3%	46.0%	Trump by 1.3%	2024-06-13 2024-06-18	2024-06-20 2024-06-21 03:55
2024-06-10 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/5P	36.0%	27.0%	37.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-06-08 2024-06-11	2024-06-17 2024-06-17 17:09
2024-06-03 12:00	Mitchell w/5P [2]	44.9%	9.0%	46.1%	Trump by 1.2%	2024-06-03 2024-06-03	2024-06-05 2024-06-06 02:33
2024-06-03 12:00	Mitchell [2]	47.6%	4.2%	48.2%	Trump by 0.6%	2024-06-03 2024-06-03	2024-06-05 2024-06-06 02:30
2024-05-31 00:00	Mainstreet LV w/3P [4]	44.0%	13.0%	43.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2024-05-30 2024-05-31	2024-06-04 2024-06-04 21:00
2024-05-31 00:00	Mainstreet RV w/3P [4]	41.0%	20.0%	39.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2024-05-30 2024-05-31	2024-06-04 2024-06-04 20:58
2024-05-31 00:00	Mainstreet LV [4]	47.0%	7.0%	46.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2024-05-30 2024-05-31	2024-06-04 2024-06-04 20:55
2024-05-31 00:00	Mainstreet RV [4]	45.0%	10.0%	45.0%	TIED	2024-05-30 2024-05-31	2024-06-04 2024-06-04 20:52
2024-05-21 00:00	Mitchell w/5P [2]	45.0%	9.0%	46.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-05-20 2024-05-21	2024-05-28 2024-05-29 01:55
2024-05-21 00:00	Mitchell [2]	47.0%	4.0%	49.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-05-20 2024-05-21	2024-05-28 2024-05-29 01:53
2024-05-17 12:00	KAConsulting w/6P [2]	41.0%	17.0%	42.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-05-15 2024-05-19	2024-07-16 2024-07-16 16:01
2024-05-17 12:00	KAConsulting [2]	44.0%	11.0%	45.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-05-15 2024-05-19	2024-07-16 2024-07-16 15:59
2024-05-17 12:00	P2 Insights w/3P	37.0%	18.0%	45.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2024-05-13 2024-05-21	2024-06-27 2024-06-27 21:06
2024-05-13 00:00	Prime w/5P [2]	44.0%	14.0%	42.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2024-05-09 2024-05-16	2024-05-22 2024-05-23 18:59
2024-05-13 00:00	Prime [2]	52.0%	0.0%	48.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2024-05-09 2024-05-16	2024-05-22 2024-05-23 18:49
2024-05-10 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	46.0%	9.0%	45.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2024-05-08 2024-05-12	2024-05-22 2024-05-23 20:12
2024-05-10 12:00	Morning Consult w/5P [2]	42.0%	18.0%	40.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2024-05-08 2024-05-12	2024-05-22 2024-05-23 20:09
2024-05-10 00:00	BSG/GS [2]	45.0%	8.0%	47.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-05-06 2024-05-13	2024-05-23 2024-05-23 22:28
2024-05-10 00:00	BSG/GS w/5P [2]	40.0%	17.0%	43.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-05-06 2024-05-13	2024-05-23 2024-05-23 22:26
2024-05-04 00:00	Siena LV [4]	47.0%	7.0%	46.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2024-04-28 2024-05-09	2024-05-13 2024-05-14 06:58
2024-05-04 00:00	Siena LV w/6P [4]	42.0%	19.0%	39.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2024-04-28 2024-05-09	2024-05-13 2024-05-14 06:49
2024-05-04 00:00	Siena RV [4]	42.0%	9.0%	49.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2024-04-28 2024-05-09	2024-05-13 2024-05-14 06:43
2024-05-04 00:00	Siena RV w/6P [4]	36.0%	26.0%	38.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-04-28 2024-05-09	2024-05-13 2024-05-14 06:37
2024-05-03 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	37.0%	20.0%	43.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2024-05-02 2024-05-04	2024-05-13 2024-05-13 18:05
2024-04-27 12:00	Emerson w/5P [3]	42.1%	14.7%	43.2%	Trump by 1.1%	2024-04-25 2024-04-29	2024-04-30 2024-04-30 15:38
2024-04-27 12:00	Emerson w/Lean [3]	47.9%	0.0%	52.1%	Trump by 4.2%	2024-04-25 2024-04-29	2024-04-30 2024-04-30 15:34
2024-04-27 12:00	Emerson [3]	43.8%	11.1%	45.1%	Trump by 1.3%	2024-04-25 2024-04-29	2024-04-30 2024-04-30 15:25
2024-04-22 12:00	YouGov w/4P [2]	45.0%	12.0%	43.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2024-04-19 2024-04-25	2024-04-28 2024-04-28 16:54
2024-04-22 12:00	YouGov [2]	51.0%	0.0%	49.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2024-04-19 2024-04-25	2024-04-28 2024-04-28 16:51
2024-04-21 00:00	Kaplan	36.0%	13.0%	51.0%	Trump by 15.0%	2024-04-20 2024-04-21	2024-04-26 2024-04-26 22:44
2024-04-17 12:00	Zogby	48.1%	6.6%	45.3%	Biden by 2.8%	2024-04-13 2024-04-21	2024-04-30 2024-05-06 04:53
2024-04-14 00:00	Beacon/Shaw [2]	46.0%	5.0%	49.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-04-11 2024-04-16	2024-04-18 2024-04-19 19:33
2024-04-14 00:00	Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]	40.0%	18.0%	42.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-04-11 2024-04-16	2024-04-18 2024-04-19 19:24
2024-04-12 00:00	Morning Consult [2]	47.0%	8.0%	45.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2024-04-08 2024-04-15	2024-04-24 2024-04-24 14:35
2024-04-12 00:00	Morning Consult w/5P [2]	43.0%	17.0%	40.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2024-04-08 2024-04-15	2024-04-24 2024-04-24 14:32
2024-04-10 00:00	MRG w/Lean w/5P [4]	33.6%	29.0%	37.4%	Trump by 3.8%	2024-04-08 2024-04-11	2024-04-17 2024-04-17 18:01
2024-04-10 00:00	MRG w/5P [4]	31.6%	33.5%	34.9%	Trump by 3.3%	2024-04-08 2024-04-11	2024-04-17 2024-04-17 17:48
2024-04-10 00:00	MRG w/Lean [4]	36.3%	21.4%	42.3%	Trump by 6.0%	2024-04-08 2024-04-11	2024-04-17 2024-04-17 17:38
2024-04-10 00:00	MRG [4]	33.3%	28.1%	38.6%	Trump by 5.3%	2024-04-08 2024-04-11	2024-04-17 2024-04-17 17:31
2024-04-01 00:00	Bullfinch Total [2]	42.0%	19.0%	39.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2024-03-29 2024-04-03	2024-04-08 2024-04-18 15:53
2024-04-01 00:00	Bullfinch Definitely [2]	35.0%	31.0%	34.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2024-03-29 2024-04-03	2024-04-08 2024-04-18 15:46
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Lean LV [16]	48.5%	0.0%	51.5%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-04 2024-04-28 17:20
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data LV [16]	42.5%	11.6%	45.9%	Trump by 3.4%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-04 2024-04-28 17:17
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean LV w/4P [16]	42.9%	12.8%	44.3%	Trump by 1.4%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-04 2024-04-28 17:14
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Gen3P LV w/4P [16]	40.9%	15.3%	43.8%	Trump by 2.9%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-04 2024-04-28 17:13
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean LV w/3P [16]	42.2%	12.9%	44.9%	Trump by 2.7%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-04 2024-04-28 17:11
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Gen3P LV w/3P [16]	41.3%	14.3%	44.4%	Trump by 3.1%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-04 2024-04-28 17:09
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean LV [16]	44.7%	9.8%	45.5%	Trump by 0.8%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-04 2024-04-28 17:07
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Gen3P LV [16]	43.2%	12.4%	44.4%	Trump by 1.2%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-04 2024-04-28 17:04
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Lean Total [16]	48.5%	0.0%	51.5%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-04 2024-04-18 17:39
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data Total [16]	41.2%	13.0%	45.8%	Trump by 4.6%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-04 2024-04-18 17:33
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean Total w/4P [16]	42.2%	13.9%	43.9%	Trump by 1.7%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-04 2024-04-18 17:27
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Gen3P Total w/4P [16]	40.0%	16.8%	43.2%	Trump by 3.2%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-04 2024-04-18 16:28
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean Total w/3P [16]	41.2%	14.3%	44.5%	Trump by 3.3%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-04 2024-04-18 16:24
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Gen3P Total w/3P [16]	40.3%	15.9%	43.8%	Trump by 3.5%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-04 2024-04-18 16:18
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean Total [16]	43.8%	11.3%	44.9%	Trump by 1.1%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-04 2024-04-18 16:13
2024-03-28 12:00	Big Data w/Gen3P Total [16]	42.3%	14.2%	43.5%	Trump by 1.2%	2024-03-26 2024-03-30	2024-04-04 2024-04-18 16:03
2024-03-27 00:00	Spry w/3P [2]	39.8%	17.2%	43.0%	Trump by 3.2%	2024-03-25 2024-03-28	2024-04-04 2024-04-04 15:23
2024-03-27 00:00	Spry [2]	43.7%	8.3%	48.0%	Trump by 4.3%	2024-03-25 2024-03-28	2024-04-04 2024-04-04 15:19
2024-03-21 00:00	Fabrizio Lee Total [4]	45.0%	7.0%	48.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-03-17 2024-03-24	2024-04-02 2024-04-03 05:08
2024-03-21 00:00	Fabrizio Lee Definitely [4]	37.0%	22.0%	41.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-03-17 2024-03-24	2024-04-02 2024-04-03 05:03
2024-03-21 00:00	Fabrizio Lee w/4P [4]	40.0%	15.0%	45.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-03-17 2024-03-24	2024-04-02 2024-04-03 04:58
2024-03-21 00:00	Fabrizio Lee w/6P [4]	37.0%	24.0%	39.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-03-17 2024-03-24	2024-04-02 2024-04-03 04:51
2024-03-18 12:00	Emerson	43.6%	10.9%	45.5%	Trump by 1.9%	2024-03-16 2024-03-20	2024-07-18 2024-07-19 05:58
2024-03-16 12:00	Emerson w/5P [3]	40.6%	16.2%	43.2%	Trump by 2.6%	2024-03-14 2024-03-18	2024-03-21 2024-03-22 02:04
2024-03-16 12:00	Emerson w/Lean [3]	49.7%	0.0%	50.3%	Trump by 0.6%	2024-03-14 2024-03-18	2024-03-21 2024-03-22 01:58
2024-03-16 12:00	Emerson [3]	43.5%	11.1%	45.4%	Trump by 1.9%	2024-03-14 2024-03-18	2024-03-21 2024-03-22 01:48
2024-03-16 00:00	Echelon Total [2]	45.0%	4.0%	51.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2024-03-12 2024-03-19	2024-04-15 2024-04-15 16:24
2024-03-16 00:00	Echelon Definitely [2]	40.0%	16.0%	44.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-03-12 2024-03-19	2024-04-15 2024-04-15 16:18
2024-03-16 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	39.0%	20.0%	41.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-03-14 2024-03-17	2024-03-25 2024-03-25 18:53
2024-03-16 00:00	Mitchell w/5P [2]	42.0%	14.0%	44.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-03-15 2024-03-16	2024-03-24 2024-03-24 19:07
2024-03-16 00:00	Mitchell [2]	44.0%	9.0%	47.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-03-15 2024-03-16	2024-03-24 2024-03-24 19:04
2024-03-16 00:00	SSRS w/4P [2]	34.0%	26.0%	40.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2024-03-13 2024-03-18	2024-03-22 2024-03-22 14:58
2024-03-16 00:00	SSRS [2]	42.0%	8.0%	50.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2024-03-13 2024-03-18	2024-03-22 2024-03-22 14:48
2024-03-10 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	45.0%	10.0%	45.0%	TIED	2024-03-08 2024-03-12	2024-03-26 2024-03-26 11:08
2024-03-10 12:00	Morning Consult w/5P [2]	40.0%	20.0%	40.0%	TIED	2024-03-08 2024-03-12	2024-03-26 2024-03-26 10:58
2024-03-10 12:00	Quinnipiac [2]	45.0%	7.0%	48.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-03-08 2024-03-12	2024-03-14 2024-03-15 02:45
2024-03-10 12:00	Quinnipiac w/5P [2]	36.0%	23.0%	41.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-03-08 2024-03-12	2024-03-14 2024-03-15 02:37
2024-02-24 00:00	North Star	43.0%	14.0%	43.0%	TIED	2024-02-22 2024-02-25	2024-02-26 2024-02-28 03:38
2024-02-23 00:00	Kaplan	36.0%	18.0%	46.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2024-02-22 2024-02-23	2024-02-26 2024-02-28 03:29
2024-02-22 12:00	Emerson w/5P [2]	38.7%	18.9%	42.4%	Trump by 3.7%	2024-02-20 2024-02-24	2024-02-26 2024-02-27 01:34
2024-02-22 12:00	Emerson [2]	44.0%	10.0%	46.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-02-20 2024-02-24	2024-02-26 2024-02-27 01:24
2024-02-16 00:00	EPIC	41.0%	14.0%	45.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-02-13 2024-02-18	2024-02-21 2024-02-22 03:10
2024-02-15 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	44.0%	10.0%	46.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-02-12 2024-02-18	2024-02-28 2024-03-01 06:37
2024-02-15 12:00	Morning Consult w/5P [2]	40.0%	19.0%	41.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-02-12 2024-02-18	2024-02-28 2024-03-01 06:27
2024-02-10 12:00	Beacon/Shaw [2]	45.0%	8.0%	47.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-02-08 2024-02-12	2024-02-14 2024-02-16 03:16
2024-02-10 12:00	Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]	37.0%	21.0%	42.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-02-08 2024-02-12	2024-02-14 2024-02-16 03:10
2024-01-20 12:00	Focaldata LV 2W [3]	50.6%	0.0%	49.4%	Biden by 1.2%	2024-01-17 2024-01-23	2024-03-01 2024-03-02 02:41
2024-01-20 12:00	Focaldata LV [3]	45.0%	11.0%	44.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2024-01-17 2024-01-23	2024-03-01 2024-03-02 02:40
2024-01-20 12:00	Focaldata All [3]	41.0%	16.0%	43.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-01-17 2024-01-23	2024-03-01 2024-03-02 02:34
2024-01-19 00:00	Morning Consult [2]	42.0%	11.0%	47.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-01-16 2024-01-21	2024-01-31 2024-01-31 19:12
2024-01-19 00:00	Morning Consult w/5P [2]	37.0%	20.0%	43.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2024-01-16 2024-01-21	2024-01-31 2024-01-31 19:06
2024-01-07 12:00	Target Insyght	45.0%	14.0%	41.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2024-01-04 2024-01-10	2024-01-12 2024-01-12 22:43
2024-01-04 12:00	Glengariff w/5P [2]	29.0%	30.0%	41.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2024-01-02 2024-01-06	2024-01-09 2024-01-10 04:04
2024-01-04 12:00	Glengariff [2]	39.0%	14.0%	47.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2024-01-02 2024-01-06	2024-01-09 2024-01-10 03:57
2024-01-03 12:00	Zogby	44.0%	9.0%	47.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-01-02 2024-01-04	2024-01-07 2024-01-08 04:59
2023-12-29 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/3P	37.0%	24.0%	39.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2023-12-28 2023-12-30	2024-01-08 2024-01-08 22:37
2023-12-03 00:00	SSRS w/4P [2]	31.0%	30.0%	39.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2023-11-29 2023-12-06	2023-12-11 2023-12-12 02:28
2023-12-03 00:00	SSRS [2]	40.0%	10.0%	50.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2023-11-29 2023-12-06	2023-12-11 2023-12-12 02:24
2023-12-02 00:00	Morning Consult [2]	42.0%	12.0%	46.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2023-11-27 2023-12-06	2023-12-14 2023-12-15 01:42
2023-12-02 00:00	Morning Consult w/5P [2]	35.0%	26.0%	39.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2023-11-27 2023-12-06	2023-12-14 2023-12-15 01:38
2023-11-28 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/3P	38.0%	23.0%	39.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2023-11-27 2023-11-29	2023-12-05 2023-12-06 01:52
2023-11-13 12:00	EPIC	41.0%	13.0%	46.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-11-10 2023-11-16	2023-11-18 2023-11-19 07:03
2023-11-03 12:00	Morning Consult w/4P [2]	38.0%	25.0%	37.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2023-10-30 2023-11-07	2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:02
2023-11-03 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	43.0%	14.0%	43.0%	TIED	2023-10-30 2023-11-07	2023-11-10 2023-11-10 19:57
2023-11-02 00:00	Emerson RV [2]	42.6%	16.4%	41.0%	Biden by 1.6%	2023-10-30 2023-11-04	2023-11-09 2023-11-10 01:40
2023-11-02 00:00	Emerson LV [2]	44.4%	12.6%	43.0%	Biden by 1.4%	2023-10-30 2023-11-04	2023-11-09 2023-11-10 01:37
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV w/3P [6]	34.0%	32.0%	34.0%	TIED	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-07 16:54
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV w/3P [6]	31.0%	35.0%	34.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-07 16:51
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV Definitely [6]	35.0%	32.0%	33.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 17:32
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV w/Lean [6]	46.0%	8.0%	46.0%	TIED	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 17:29
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV Definitely [6]	31.0%	35.0%	34.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 16:03
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV w/Lean [6]	43.0%	9.0%	48.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 15:59
2023-10-08 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/3P [2]	38.0%	22.0%	40.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2023-10-07 2023-10-09	2023-10-15 2023-10-16 04:43
2023-10-08 12:00	Redfield & Wilton [2]	41.0%	18.0%	41.0%	TIED	2023-10-07 2023-10-09	2023-10-15 2023-10-16 04:39
2023-10-08 00:00	Morning Consult	44.0%	12.0%	44.0%	TIED	2023-10-05 2023-10-10	2023-10-19 2023-10-19 15:52
2023-10-05 12:00	MRG Total [2]	35.1%	23.3%	41.6%	Trump by 6.5%	2023-10-02 2023-10-08	2023-10-11 2023-10-12 05:50
2023-10-05 12:00	MRG wo/Lean [2]	31.1%	29.2%	39.7%	Trump by 8.6%	2023-10-02 2023-10-08	2023-10-11 2023-10-12 05:46
2023-10-03 00:00	Emerson	44.1%	13.4%	42.5%	Biden by 1.6%	2023-10-01 2023-10-04	2023-10-16 2023-10-17 01:00
2023-09-27 00:00	PPP	48.0%	8.0%	44.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2023-09-26 2023-09-27	2023-09-29 2023-09-29 15:51
2023-09-10 00:00	Susquehanna	46.0%	11.0%	43.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2023-09-07 2023-09-12	2023-09-15 2023-09-15 21:06
2023-08-09 00:00	EPIC Total [2]	46.0%	9.0%	45.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2023-08-06 2023-08-11	2023-08-17 2023-08-18 05:34
2023-08-09 00:00	EPIC wo/Lean [2]	43.0%	17.0%	40.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2023-08-06 2023-08-11	2023-08-17 2023-08-18 05:29
2023-08-02 00:00	Emerson w/3P [2]	41.2%	15.5%	43.3%	Trump by 2.1%	2023-08-01 2023-08-02	2023-08-04 2023-08-05 02:16
2023-08-02 00:00	Emerson [2]	44.1%	12.3%	43.6%	Biden by 0.5%	2023-08-01 2023-08-02	2023-08-04 2023-08-05 02:12
2023-07-12 12:00	Mitchell	45.0%	12.0%	43.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-07-11 2023-07-13	2023-07-21 2023-07-22 00:29
2023-07-09 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies Total [2]	45.0%	11.0%	44.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2023-07-08 2023-07-10	2023-07-13 2023-07-14 07:16
2023-07-09 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2]	40.0%	21.0%	39.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2023-07-08 2023-07-10	2023-07-13 2023-07-14 07:13
2023-06-21 12:00	Prime w/NL [2]	40.0%	17.0%	43.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2023-06-14 2023-06-28	2023-07-13 2023-08-15 14:24
2023-06-21 12:00	Prime [2]	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	TIED	2023-06-14 2023-06-28	2023-07-13 2023-07-14 05:44
2023-06-11 12:00	EPIC wo/Lean [2]	41.0%	21.0%	38.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2023-06-08 2023-06-14	2023-06-16 2023-08-09 01:18
2023-06-11 12:00	EPIC Total [2]	44.0%	12.0%	44.0%	TIED	2023-06-08 2023-06-14	2023-06-16 2023-06-16 21:17
2023-04-18 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies	45.0%	13.0%	42.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2023-04-17 2023-04-19	2023-04-21 2023-04-23 21:10
2022-12-07 00:00	PPP	50.0%	7.0%	43.0%	Biden by 7.0%	2022-12-06 2022-12-07	2022-12-09 2023-03-24 07:09
2022-12-03 12:00	EPIC	47.0%	10.0%	43.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2022-11-30 2022-12-06	2022-12-09 2023-03-24 07:03
2022-10-30 00:00	Emerson	44.4%	8.9%	46.7%	Trump by 2.3%	2022-10-28 2022-10-31	2022-11-02 2023-03-24 02:39
2022-10-13 12:00	Emerson	43.7%	11.9%	44.4%	Trump by 0.7%	2022-10-12 2022-10-14	2022-10-18 2023-03-23 04:21
2022-09-17 12:00	EPIC	48.0%	8.0%	44.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2022-09-15 2022-09-19	2022-09-22 2023-03-23 02:10
2022-08-16 00:00	Blueprint	41.2%	18.0%	40.8%	Biden by 0.4%	2022-08-15 2022-08-16	2022-08-18 2023-03-21 03:53
2022-02-03 00:00	Blueprint	38.2%	21.4%	40.4%	Trump by 2.2%	2022-02-01 2022-02-04	2022-02-10 2023-03-20 14:11
2021-11-14 00:00	Fabrizio Lee Definitely [2]	38.0%	17.0%	45.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2021-11-11 2021-11-16	2021-11-21 2023-07-04 00:46
2021-11-14 00:00	Fabrizio Lee Total [2]	41.0%	6.0%	53.0%	Trump by 12.0%	2021-11-11 2021-11-16	2021-11-21 2023-03-20 13:24
2020-11-03 12:00	Election2020	50.6%	1.5%	47.8%	DEM by 2.8%	2020-11-03 2020-11-03	2020-11-03 2023-03-15 07:00
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	47.3%	5.2%	47.5%	REP by 0.2%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-20 03:01
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	54.2%	1.1%	44.7%	DEM by 9.5%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:37
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	57.4%	1.6%	41.0%	DEM by 16.5%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-30 03:06
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	51.2%	1.0%	47.8%	DEM by 3.4%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:21
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	51.3%	2.6%	46.2%	DEM by 5.1%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 09:53
1996-11-05 12:00	Election1996	51.7%	9.8%	38.5%	DEM by 13.2%	1996-11-05 1996-11-05	1996-11-05 2014-02-16 09:35
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	43.8%	19.9%	36.4%	DEM by 7.4%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 03:25
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	45.7%	0.8%	53.6%	REP by 7.9%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 10:27
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	40.2%	0.5%	59.2%	REP by 19.0%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-22 03:42
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	42.5%	8.5%	49.0%	REP by 6.5%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:58

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

For more information, read the FAQ.

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