2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Michigan [15 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-06-03 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-06-06 02:33 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY, not how things may change before the election!
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by then!

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-06-03 12:00

Mitchell w/5P [2]

44.9%

9.0%

46.1%

Trump
by 1.2%

2024-06-03
2024-06-03

2024-06-05
2024-06-06 02:33

2024-06-03 12:00

Mitchell [2]

47.6%

4.2%

48.2%

Trump
by 0.6%

2024-06-03
2024-06-03

2024-06-05
2024-06-06 02:30

2024-05-31 00:00

Mainstreet LV w/3P [4]

44.0%

13.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2024-05-30
2024-05-31

2024-06-04
2024-06-04 21:00

2024-05-31 00:00

Mainstreet RV w/3P [4]

41.0%

20.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-05-30
2024-05-31

2024-06-04
2024-06-04 20:58

2024-05-31 00:00

Mainstreet LV [4]

47.0%

7.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2024-05-30
2024-05-31

2024-06-04
2024-06-04 20:55

2024-05-31 00:00

Mainstreet RV [4]

45.0%

10.0%

45.0%

TIED

2024-05-30
2024-05-31

2024-06-04
2024-06-04 20:52

2024-05-21 00:00

Mitchell w/5P [2]

45.0%

9.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-05-20
2024-05-21

2024-05-28
2024-05-29 01:55

2024-05-21 00:00

Mitchell [2]

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-05-20
2024-05-21

2024-05-28
2024-05-29 01:53

2024-05-13 00:00

Prime w/5P [2]

44.0%

14.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-05-09
2024-05-16

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 18:59

2024-05-13 00:00

Prime [2]

52.0%

0.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2024-05-09
2024-05-16

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 18:49

2024-05-10 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

46.0%

9.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2024-05-08
2024-05-12

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 20:12

2024-05-10 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

42.0%

18.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-05-08
2024-05-12

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 20:09

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-05-10 00:00

BSG/GS [2]

45.0%

8.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-05-06
2024-05-13

2024-05-23
2024-05-23 22:28

2024-05-10 00:00

BSG/GS w/5P [2]

40.0%

17.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-05-06
2024-05-13

2024-05-23
2024-05-23 22:26

2024-05-04 00:00

Siena LV [4]

47.0%

7.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-09

2024-05-13
2024-05-14 06:58

2024-05-04 00:00

Siena LV w/6P [4]

42.0%

19.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-09

2024-05-13
2024-05-14 06:49

2024-05-04 00:00

Siena RV [4]

42.0%

9.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-09

2024-05-13
2024-05-14 06:43

2024-05-04 00:00

Siena RV w/6P [4]

36.0%

26.0%

38.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-09

2024-05-13
2024-05-14 06:37

2024-05-03 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

37.0%

20.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-05-02
2024-05-04

2024-05-13
2024-05-13 18:05

2024-04-27 12:00

Emerson w/5P [3]

42.1%

14.7%

43.2%

Trump
by 1.1%

2024-04-25
2024-04-29

2024-04-30
2024-04-30 15:38

2024-04-27 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

47.9%

0.0%

52.1%

Trump
by 4.2%

2024-04-25
2024-04-29

2024-04-30
2024-04-30 15:34

2024-04-27 12:00

Emerson [3]

43.8%

11.1%

45.1%

Trump
by 1.3%

2024-04-25
2024-04-29

2024-04-30
2024-04-30 15:25

2024-04-22 12:00

YouGov w/4P [2]

45.0%

12.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-04-19
2024-04-25

2024-04-28
2024-04-28 16:54

2024-04-22 12:00

YouGov [2]

51.0%

0.0%

49.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-04-19
2024-04-25

2024-04-28
2024-04-28 16:51

2024-04-21 00:00

Kaplan

36.0%

13.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2024-04-20
2024-04-21

2024-04-26
2024-04-26 22:44

2024-04-17 12:00

Zogby

48.1%

6.6%

45.3%

Biden
by 2.8%

2024-04-13
2024-04-21

2024-04-30
2024-05-06 04:53

2024-04-14 00:00

Beacon/Shaw [2]

46.0%

5.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-04-11
2024-04-16

2024-04-18
2024-04-19 19:33

2024-04-14 00:00

Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]

40.0%

18.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-04-11
2024-04-16

2024-04-18
2024-04-19 19:24

2024-04-12 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

47.0%

8.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-04-08
2024-04-15

2024-04-24
2024-04-24 14:35

2024-04-12 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

43.0%

17.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2024-04-08
2024-04-15

2024-04-24
2024-04-24 14:32

2024-04-10 00:00

MRG w/Lean w/5P [4]

33.6%

29.0%

37.4%

Trump
by 3.8%

2024-04-08
2024-04-11

2024-04-17
2024-04-17 18:01

2024-04-10 00:00

MRG w/5P [4]

31.6%

33.5%

34.9%

Trump
by 3.3%

2024-04-08
2024-04-11

2024-04-17
2024-04-17 17:48

2024-04-10 00:00

MRG w/Lean [4]

36.3%

21.4%

42.3%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-04-08
2024-04-11

2024-04-17
2024-04-17 17:38

2024-04-10 00:00

MRG [4]

33.3%

28.1%

38.6%

Trump
by 5.3%

2024-04-08
2024-04-11

2024-04-17
2024-04-17 17:31

2024-04-01 00:00

Bullfinch Total [2]

42.0%

19.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2024-03-29
2024-04-03

2024-04-08
2024-04-18 15:53

2024-04-01 00:00

Bullfinch Definitely [2]

35.0%

31.0%

34.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2024-03-29
2024-04-03

2024-04-08
2024-04-18 15:46

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Lean LV [16]

48.5%

0.0%

51.5%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-04
2024-04-28 17:20

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data LV [16]

42.5%

11.6%

45.9%

Trump
by 3.4%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-04
2024-04-28 17:17

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean LV w/4P [16]

42.9%

12.8%

44.3%

Trump
by 1.4%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-04
2024-04-28 17:14

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Gen3P LV w/4P [16]

40.9%

15.3%

43.8%

Trump
by 2.9%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-04
2024-04-28 17:13

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean LV w/3P [16]

42.2%

12.9%

44.9%

Trump
by 2.7%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-04
2024-04-28 17:11

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Gen3P LV w/3P [16]

41.3%

14.3%

44.4%

Trump
by 3.1%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-04
2024-04-28 17:09

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean LV [16]

44.7%

9.8%

45.5%

Trump
by 0.8%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-04
2024-04-28 17:07

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Gen3P LV [16]

43.2%

12.4%

44.4%

Trump
by 1.2%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-04
2024-04-28 17:04

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Lean Total [16]

48.5%

0.0%

51.5%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-04
2024-04-18 17:39

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data Total [16]

41.2%

13.0%

45.8%

Trump
by 4.6%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-04
2024-04-18 17:33

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean Total w/4P [16]

42.2%

13.9%

43.9%

Trump
by 1.7%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-04
2024-04-18 17:27

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Gen3P Total w/4P [16]

40.0%

16.8%

43.2%

Trump
by 3.2%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-04
2024-04-18 16:28

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean Total w/3P [16]

41.2%

14.3%

44.5%

Trump
by 3.3%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-04
2024-04-18 16:24

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Gen3P Total w/3P [16]

40.3%

15.9%

43.8%

Trump
by 3.5%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-04
2024-04-18 16:18

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean Total [16]

43.8%

11.3%

44.9%

Trump
by 1.1%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-04
2024-04-18 16:13

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Gen3P Total [16]

42.3%

14.2%

43.5%

Trump
by 1.2%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-04
2024-04-18 16:03

2024-03-27 00:00

Spry w/3P [2]

39.8%

17.2%

43.0%

Trump
by 3.2%

2024-03-25
2024-03-28

2024-04-04
2024-04-04 15:23

2024-03-27 00:00

Spry [2]

43.7%

8.3%

48.0%

Trump
by 4.3%

2024-03-25
2024-03-28

2024-04-04
2024-04-04 15:19

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Total [4]

45.0%

7.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 05:08

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Definitely [4]

37.0%

22.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 05:03

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee w/4P [4]

40.0%

15.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 04:58

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee w/6P [4]

37.0%

24.0%

39.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 04:51

2024-03-16 12:00

Emerson w/5P [3]

40.6%

16.2%

43.2%

Trump
by 2.6%

2024-03-14
2024-03-18

2024-03-21
2024-03-22 02:04

2024-03-16 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

49.7%

0.0%

50.3%

Trump
by 0.6%

2024-03-14
2024-03-18

2024-03-21
2024-03-22 01:58

2024-03-16 12:00

Emerson [3]

43.5%

11.1%

45.4%

Trump
by 1.9%

2024-03-14
2024-03-18

2024-03-21
2024-03-22 01:48

2024-03-16 00:00

Echelon Total [2]

45.0%

4.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-03-12
2024-03-19

2024-04-15
2024-04-15 16:24

2024-03-16 00:00

Echelon Definitely [2]

40.0%

16.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-03-12
2024-03-19

2024-04-15
2024-04-15 16:18

2024-03-16 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

39.0%

20.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-03-14
2024-03-17

2024-03-25
2024-03-25 18:53

2024-03-16 00:00

Mitchell w/5P [2]

42.0%

14.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-03-15
2024-03-16

2024-03-24
2024-03-24 19:07

2024-03-16 00:00

Mitchell [2]

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-03-15
2024-03-16

2024-03-24
2024-03-24 19:04

2024-03-16 00:00

SSRS w/4P [2]

34.0%

26.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-03-13
2024-03-18

2024-03-22
2024-03-22 14:58

2024-03-16 00:00

SSRS [2]

42.0%

8.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-03-13
2024-03-18

2024-03-22
2024-03-22 14:48

2024-03-10 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

45.0%

10.0%

45.0%

TIED

2024-03-08
2024-03-12

2024-03-26
2024-03-26 11:08

2024-03-10 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

40.0%

20.0%

40.0%

TIED

2024-03-08
2024-03-12

2024-03-26
2024-03-26 10:58

2024-03-10 12:00

Quinnipiac [2]

45.0%

7.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-03-08
2024-03-12

2024-03-14
2024-03-15 02:45

2024-03-10 12:00

Quinnipiac w/5P [2]

36.0%

23.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-03-08
2024-03-12

2024-03-14
2024-03-15 02:37

2024-02-24 00:00

North Star

43.0%

14.0%

43.0%

TIED

2024-02-22
2024-02-25

2024-02-26
2024-02-28 03:38

2024-02-23 00:00

Kaplan

36.0%

18.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2024-02-22
2024-02-23

2024-02-26
2024-02-28 03:29

2024-02-22 12:00

Emerson w/5P [2]

38.7%

18.9%

42.4%

Trump
by 3.7%

2024-02-20
2024-02-24

2024-02-26
2024-02-27 01:34

2024-02-22 12:00

Emerson [2]

44.0%

10.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-02-20
2024-02-24

2024-02-26
2024-02-27 01:24

2024-02-16 00:00

EPIC

41.0%

14.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-02-13
2024-02-18

2024-02-21
2024-02-22 03:10

2024-02-15 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

44.0%

10.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-02-12
2024-02-18

2024-02-28
2024-03-01 06:37

2024-02-15 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

40.0%

19.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-02-12
2024-02-18

2024-02-28
2024-03-01 06:27

2024-02-10 12:00

Beacon/Shaw [2]

45.0%

8.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-02-08
2024-02-12

2024-02-14
2024-02-16 03:16

2024-02-10 12:00

Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]

37.0%

21.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-02-08
2024-02-12

2024-02-14
2024-02-16 03:10

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata LV 2W [3]

50.6%

0.0%

49.4%

Biden
by 1.2%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 02:41

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata LV [3]

45.0%

11.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 02:40

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata All [3]

41.0%

16.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 02:34

2024-01-19 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

42.0%

11.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-01-16
2024-01-21

2024-01-31
2024-01-31 19:12

2024-01-19 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

37.0%

20.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-01-16
2024-01-21

2024-01-31
2024-01-31 19:06

2024-01-07 12:00

Target Insyght

45.0%

14.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2024-01-04
2024-01-10

2024-01-12
2024-01-12 22:43

2024-01-04 12:00

Glengariff w/5P [2]

29.0%

30.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2024-01-02
2024-01-06

2024-01-09
2024-01-10 04:04

2024-01-04 12:00

Glengariff [2]

39.0%

14.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-01-02
2024-01-06

2024-01-09
2024-01-10 03:57

2024-01-03 12:00

Zogby

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-01-02
2024-01-04

2024-01-07
2024-01-08 04:59

2023-12-29 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

37.0%

24.0%

39.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2023-12-28
2023-12-30

2024-01-08
2024-01-08 22:37

2023-12-03 00:00

SSRS w/4P [2]

31.0%

30.0%

39.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2023-11-29
2023-12-06

2023-12-11
2023-12-12 02:28

2023-12-03 00:00

SSRS [2]

40.0%

10.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2023-11-29
2023-12-06

2023-12-11
2023-12-12 02:24

2023-12-02 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

42.0%

12.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-06

2023-12-14
2023-12-15 01:42

2023-12-02 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

35.0%

26.0%

39.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-06

2023-12-14
2023-12-15 01:38

2023-11-28 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

38.0%

23.0%

39.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2023-11-27
2023-11-29

2023-12-05
2023-12-06 01:52

2023-11-13 12:00

EPIC

41.0%

13.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-11-10
2023-11-16

2023-11-18
2023-11-19 07:03

2023-11-03 12:00

Morning Consult w/4P [2]

38.0%

25.0%

37.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2023-10-30
2023-11-07

2023-11-10
2023-11-10 20:02

2023-11-03 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

43.0%

14.0%

43.0%

TIED

2023-10-30
2023-11-07

2023-11-10
2023-11-10 19:57

2023-11-02 00:00

Emerson RV [2]

42.6%

16.4%

41.0%

Biden
by 1.6%

2023-10-30
2023-11-04

2023-11-09
2023-11-10 01:40

2023-11-02 00:00

Emerson LV [2]

44.4%

12.6%

43.0%

Biden
by 1.4%

2023-10-30
2023-11-04

2023-11-09
2023-11-10 01:37

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV w/3P [6]

34.0%

32.0%

34.0%

TIED

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-07 16:54

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV w/3P [6]

31.0%

35.0%

34.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-07 16:51

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV Definitely [6]

35.0%

32.0%

33.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 17:32

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV w/Lean [6]

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 17:29

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV Definitely [6]

31.0%

35.0%

34.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 16:03

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV w/Lean [6]

43.0%

9.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 15:59

2023-10-08 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P [2]

38.0%

22.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2023-10-07
2023-10-09

2023-10-15
2023-10-16 04:43

2023-10-08 12:00

Redfield & Wilton [2]

41.0%

18.0%

41.0%

TIED

2023-10-07
2023-10-09

2023-10-15
2023-10-16 04:39

2023-10-08 00:00

Morning Consult

44.0%

12.0%

44.0%

TIED

2023-10-05
2023-10-10

2023-10-19
2023-10-19 15:52

2023-10-05 12:00

MRG Total [2]

35.1%

23.3%

41.6%

Trump
by 6.5%

2023-10-02
2023-10-08

2023-10-11
2023-10-12 05:50

2023-10-05 12:00

MRG wo/Lean [2]

31.1%

29.2%

39.7%

Trump
by 8.6%

2023-10-02
2023-10-08

2023-10-11
2023-10-12 05:46

2023-10-03 00:00

Emerson

44.1%

13.4%

42.5%

Biden
by 1.6%

2023-10-01
2023-10-04

2023-10-16
2023-10-17 01:00

2023-09-27 00:00

PPP

48.0%

8.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2023-09-26
2023-09-27

2023-09-29
2023-09-29 15:51

2023-09-10 00:00

Susquehanna

46.0%

11.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2023-09-07
2023-09-12

2023-09-15
2023-09-15 21:06

2023-08-09 00:00

EPIC Total [2]

46.0%

9.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2023-08-06
2023-08-11

2023-08-17
2023-08-18 05:34

2023-08-09 00:00

EPIC wo/Lean [2]

43.0%

17.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2023-08-06
2023-08-11

2023-08-17
2023-08-18 05:29

2023-08-02 00:00

Emerson w/3P [2]

41.2%

15.5%

43.3%

Trump
by 2.1%

2023-08-01
2023-08-02

2023-08-04
2023-08-05 02:16

2023-08-02 00:00

Emerson [2]

44.1%

12.3%

43.6%

Biden
by 0.5%

2023-08-01
2023-08-02

2023-08-04
2023-08-05 02:12

2023-07-12 12:00

Mitchell

45.0%

12.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-07-11
2023-07-13

2023-07-21
2023-07-22 00:29

2023-07-09 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies Total [2]

45.0%

11.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2023-07-08
2023-07-10

2023-07-13
2023-07-14 07:16

2023-07-09 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2]

40.0%

21.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2023-07-08
2023-07-10

2023-07-13
2023-07-14 07:13

2023-06-21 12:00

Prime w/NL [2]

40.0%

17.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2023-06-14
2023-06-28

2023-07-13
2023-08-15 14:24

2023-06-21 12:00

Prime [2]

50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

TIED

2023-06-14
2023-06-28

2023-07-13
2023-07-14 05:44

2023-06-11 12:00

EPIC wo/Lean [2]

41.0%

21.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2023-06-08
2023-06-14

2023-06-16
2023-08-09 01:18

2023-06-11 12:00

EPIC Total [2]

44.0%

12.0%

44.0%

TIED

2023-06-08
2023-06-14

2023-06-16
2023-06-16 21:17

2023-04-18 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies

45.0%

13.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2023-04-17
2023-04-19

2023-04-21
2023-04-23 21:10

2022-12-07 00:00

PPP

50.0%

7.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2022-12-06
2022-12-07

2022-12-09
2023-03-24 07:09

2022-12-03 12:00

EPIC

47.0%

10.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2022-11-30
2022-12-06

2022-12-09
2023-03-24 07:03

2022-10-30 00:00

Emerson

44.4%

8.9%

46.7%

Trump
by 2.3%

2022-10-28
2022-10-31

2022-11-02
2023-03-24 02:39

2022-10-13 12:00

Emerson

43.7%

11.9%

44.4%

Trump
by 0.7%

2022-10-12
2022-10-14

2022-10-18
2023-03-23 04:21

2022-09-17 12:00

EPIC

48.0%

8.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2022-09-15
2022-09-19

2022-09-22
2023-03-23 02:10

2022-08-16 00:00

Blueprint

41.2%

18.0%

40.8%

Biden
by 0.4%

2022-08-15
2022-08-16

2022-08-18
2023-03-21 03:53

2022-02-03 00:00

Blueprint

38.2%

21.4%

40.4%

Trump
by 2.2%

2022-02-01
2022-02-04

2022-02-10
2023-03-20 14:11

2021-11-14 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Definitely [2]

38.0%

17.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2021-11-11
2021-11-16

2021-11-21
2023-07-04 00:46

2021-11-14 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Total [2]

41.0%

6.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2021-11-11
2021-11-16

2021-11-21
2023-03-20 13:24

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

50.6%

1.5%

47.8%

DEM
by 2.8%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 07:00

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

47.3%

5.2%

47.5%

REP
by 0.2%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 03:01

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

54.2%

1.1%

44.7%

DEM
by 9.5%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:37

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

57.4%

1.6%

41.0%

DEM
by 16.5%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:06

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

51.2%

1.0%

47.8%

DEM
by 3.4%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:21

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

51.3%

2.6%

46.2%

DEM
by 5.1%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 09:53

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

51.7%

9.8%

38.5%

DEM
by 13.2%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 09:35

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

43.8%

19.9%

36.4%

DEM
by 7.4%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 03:25

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

45.7%

0.8%

53.6%

REP
by 7.9%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 10:27

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

40.2%

0.5%

59.2%

REP
by 19.0%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-22 03:42

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

42.5%

8.5%

49.0%

REP
by 6.5%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:58

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

Follow @ElectionGraphs@newsie.social on Mastodon.

Like Election Graphs on Facebook.

Read the Election Graphs blog posts.

 

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Donation Page.

 

The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

Page cached at 2024-06-16 14:18:20 UTC

Original calculation time was 11.546 seconds

 

Page displayed at 2024-06-16 22:39:07 UTC

Page generated in 0.115 seconds