2024 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - Michigan [15 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-11-28 12:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2023-12-06 01:52 UTC
Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Biden vs DeSantis Biden vs Haley Harris vs Trump Biden vs Pence Biden vs Youngkin || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden <> Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-11-28 12:00
Redfield & Wilton w/3P
38.0%
23.0%
39.0%
Trump by 1.0%
2023-11-27 2023-11-29
2023-12-05 2023-12-06 01:52
2023-11-13 12:00
EPIC
41.0%
13.0%
46.0%
Trump by 5.0%
2023-11-10 2023-11-16
2023-11-18 2023-11-19 07:03
2023-11-03 12:00
Morning Consult w/4P [2]
38.0%
25.0%
37.0%
Biden by 1.0%
2023-10-30 2023-11-07
2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:02
2023-11-03 12:00
Morning Consult [2]
43.0%
14.0%
43.0%
TIED
2023-10-30 2023-11-07
2023-11-10 2023-11-10 19:57
2023-11-02 00:00
Emerson RV [2]
42.6%
16.4%
41.0%
Biden by 1.6%
2023-10-30 2023-11-04
2023-11-09 2023-11-10 01:40
2023-11-02 00:00
Emerson LV [2]
44.4%
12.6%
43.0%
Biden by 1.4%
2023-10-30 2023-11-04
2023-11-09 2023-11-10 01:37
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena LV w/3P [6]
34.0%
32.0%
34.0%
TIED
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-07 16:54
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena RV w/3P [6]
31.0%
35.0%
34.0%
Trump by 3.0%
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-07 16:51
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena LV Definitely [6]
35.0%
32.0%
33.0%
Biden by 2.0%
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-05 17:32
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena LV w/Lean [6]
46.0%
8.0%
46.0%
TIED
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-05 17:29
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena RV Definitely [6]
31.0%
35.0%
34.0%
Trump by 3.0%
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-05 16:03
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena RV w/Lean [6]
43.0%
9.0%
48.0%
Trump by 5.0%
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-05 15:59
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden <> Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-10-08 12:00
Redfield & Wilton w/3P [2]
38.0%
22.0%
40.0%
Trump by 2.0%
2023-10-07 2023-10-09
2023-10-15 2023-10-16 04:43
2023-10-08 12:00
Redfield & Wilton [2]
41.0%
18.0%
41.0%
TIED
2023-10-07 2023-10-09
2023-10-15 2023-10-16 04:39
2023-10-08 00:00
Morning Consult
44.0%
12.0%
44.0%
TIED
2023-10-05 2023-10-10
2023-10-19 2023-10-19 15:52
2023-10-05 12:00
MRG Total [2]
35.1%
23.3%
41.6%
Trump by 6.5%
2023-10-02 2023-10-08
2023-10-11 2023-10-12 05:50
2023-10-05 12:00
MRG wo/Lean [2]
31.1%
29.2%
39.7%
Trump by 8.6%
2023-10-02 2023-10-08
2023-10-11 2023-10-12 05:46
2023-10-03 00:00
Emerson
44.1%
13.4%
42.5%
Biden by 1.6%
2023-10-01 2023-10-04
2023-10-16 2023-10-17 01:00
2023-09-27 00:00
PPP
48.0%
8.0%
44.0%
Biden by 4.0%
2023-09-26 2023-09-27
2023-09-29 2023-09-29 15:51
2023-09-10 00:00
Susquehanna
46.0%
11.0%
43.0%
Biden by 3.0%
2023-09-07 2023-09-12
2023-09-15 2023-09-15 21:06
2023-08-09 00:00
EPIC Total [2]
46.0%
9.0%
45.0%
Biden by 1.0%
2023-08-06 2023-08-11
2023-08-17 2023-08-18 05:34
2023-08-09 00:00
EPIC wo/Lean [2]
43.0%
17.0%
40.0%
Biden by 3.0%
2023-08-06 2023-08-11
2023-08-17 2023-08-18 05:29
2023-08-02 00:00
Emerson w/3P [2]
41.2%
15.5%
43.3%
Trump by 2.1%
2023-08-01 2023-08-02
2023-08-04 2023-08-05 02:16
2023-08-02 00:00
Emerson [2]
44.1%
12.3%
43.6%
Biden by 0.5%
2023-08-01 2023-08-02
2023-08-04 2023-08-05 02:12
2023-07-12 12:00
Mitchell
45.0%
12.0%
43.0%
Biden by 2.0%
2023-07-11 2023-07-13
2023-07-21 2023-07-22 00:29
2023-07-09 12:00
Public Opinion Strategies Total [2]
45.0%
11.0%
44.0%
Biden by 1.0%
2023-07-08 2023-07-10
2023-07-13 2023-07-14 07:16
2023-07-09 12:00
Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2]
40.0%
21.0%
39.0%
Biden by 1.0%
2023-07-08 2023-07-10
2023-07-13 2023-07-14 07:13
2023-06-21 12:00
Prime w/NL [2]
40.0%
17.0%
43.0%
Trump by 3.0%
2023-06-14 2023-06-28
2023-07-13 2023-08-15 14:24
2023-06-21 12:00
Prime [2]
50.0%
0.0%
50.0%
TIED
2023-06-14 2023-06-28
2023-07-13 2023-07-14 05:44
2023-06-11 12:00
EPIC wo/Lean [2]
41.0%
21.0%
38.0%
Biden by 3.0%
2023-06-08 2023-06-14
2023-06-16 2023-08-09 01:18
2023-06-11 12:00
EPIC Total [2]
44.0%
12.0%
44.0%
TIED
2023-06-08 2023-06-14
2023-06-16 2023-06-16 21:17
2023-04-18 12:00
Public Opinion Strategies
45.0%
13.0%
42.0%
Biden by 3.0%
2023-04-17 2023-04-19
2023-04-21 2023-04-23 21:10
2022-12-07 00:00
PPP
50.0%
7.0%
43.0%
Biden by 7.0%
2022-12-06 2022-12-07
2022-12-09 2023-03-24 07:09
2022-12-03 12:00
EPIC
47.0%
10.0%
43.0%
Biden by 4.0%
2022-11-30 2022-12-06
2022-12-09 2023-03-24 07:03
2022-10-30 00:00
Emerson
44.4%
8.9%
46.7%
Trump by 2.3%
2022-10-28 2022-10-31
2022-11-02 2023-03-24 02:39
2022-10-13 12:00
Emerson
43.7%
11.9%
44.4%
Trump by 0.7%
2022-10-12 2022-10-14
2022-10-18 2023-03-23 04:21
2022-09-17 12:00
EPIC
48.0%
8.0%
44.0%
Biden by 4.0%
2022-09-15 2022-09-19
2022-09-22 2023-03-23 02:10
2022-08-16 00:00
Blueprint
41.2%
18.0%
40.8%
Biden by 0.4%
2022-08-15 2022-08-16
2022-08-18 2023-03-21 03:53
2022-02-03 00:00
Blueprint
38.2%
21.4%
40.4%
Trump by 2.2%
2022-02-01 2022-02-04
2022-02-10 2023-03-20 14:11
2021-11-14 00:00
Fabrizio Lee Definitely [2]
38.0%
17.0%
45.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2021-11-11 2021-11-16
2021-11-21 2023-07-04 00:46
2021-11-14 00:00
Fabrizio Lee Total [2]
41.0%
6.0%
53.0%
Trump by 12.0%
2021-11-11 2021-11-16
2021-11-21 2023-03-20 13:24
2020-11-03 12:00
Election2020
50.6%
1.5%
47.8%
DEM by 2.8%
2020-11-03 2020-11-03
2020-11-03 2023-03-15 07:00
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
47.3%
5.2%
47.5%
REP by 0.2%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-20 03:01
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
54.2%
1.1%
44.7%
DEM by 9.5%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:37
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
57.4%
1.6%
41.0%
DEM by 16.5%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-09-30 03:06
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
51.2%
1.0%
47.8%
DEM by 3.4%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:21
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
51.3%
2.6%
46.2%
DEM by 5.1%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-10 09:53
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
51.7%
9.8%
38.5%
DEM by 13.2%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-16 09:35
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
43.8%
19.9%
36.4%
DEM by 7.4%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 03:25
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
45.7%
0.8%
53.6%
REP by 7.9%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 10:27
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
40.2%
0.5%
59.2%
REP by 19.0%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-22 03:42
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
42.5%
8.5%
49.0%
REP by 6.5%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:58
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024 ".
For more information, read the FAQ .
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