2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - National Summary

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-05-10 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-05-15 20:34 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY, not how things may change before the election!
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by then!

Leaders:  Best Polled: ||
Democrat: Republican: History Shown in Graphs: 

Summary View

Probabilistic View (Indep States)

Median:
Trump by 96
1σ (68.27%) range:
Trump by 74 ----- Trump by 118
2σ (95.45%) range:
Trump by 46 ---------- Trump by 138
Odds:
Biden: 0.1% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 99.9%

Probabilistic View (Uniform Swing)

Median:
Trump by 88
1σ (68.27%) range:
Trump by 86 ----- Trump by 138
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 56 ---------- Trump by 176
Odds:
Biden: 3.4% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 96.6%

Categorization View

BidenTrumpMargin
Trump BestBiden/Trump TIE
ExpectedBiden/Trump TIE
Biden BestBiden/Trump TIE

Probabilistic View

Categorization View

State Breakdown by Category

Click on state names for polling details.

Switch to Column View

Solid Biden

District of Columbia | 3 EV| (((((84.5%)))))

Vermont | 3 EV|   (((29.8%)))  

Hawaii | 4 EV|   (((27.5%)))  

Massachusetts |11 EV|      22.9%     

Maryland |10 EV|      21.9%     

California |54 EV|      20.4%     

Delaware | 3 EV|  ((((17.0%)))) 

Maine (CD1) | 1 EV|   (((16.7%)))  

Rhode Island | 4 EV|    ((14.2%))   

Connecticut | 7 EV|      13.2%     

Illinois |19 EV|      12.7%     

New Jersey |14 EV|   (((12.5%)))  

Oregon | 8 EV|      11.9%     

New York |28 EV|      10.8%     

Washington |12 EV|      10.1%     

Strong Biden

Colorado |10 EV|       6.8%     

New Mexico | 5 EV|       6.7%     

New Hampshire | 4 EV|       5.9%     

Weak Biden

Maine (All) | 2 EV|       3.5%     

Virginia |13 EV|       2.6%     

Minnesota |10 EV|       2.3%     

Weak Trump

Nebraska (CD2) | 1 EV|  (((( 0.9%)))) 

Wisconsin |10 EV|       2.4%     

Pennsylvania |19 EV|       2.8%     

Arizona |11 EV|       3.4%     

•  Michigan |15 EV|       4.5%     

North Carolina |16 EV|       4.8%     

Strong Trump

Georgia |16 EV|       5.8%     

Nevada | 6 EV|       7.3%     

Maine (CD2) | 1 EV|   ((( 8.6%)))  

Iowa | 6 EV|       9.5%     

Florida |30 EV|       9.9%     

Solid Trump

Texas |40 EV|      10.3%     

Ohio |17 EV|      10.5%     

Alaska | 3 EV|      11.2%     

Utah | 6 EV|      12.1%     

Kansas | 6 EV|      12.2%     

Mississippi | 6 EV|   (((14.5%)))  

Missouri |10 EV|      14.5%     

South Carolina | 9 EV|      15.3%     

Indiana |11 EV|    ((15.9%))   

Louisiana | 8 EV|    ((16.1%))   

Nebraska (All) | 2 EV|     (17.3%)    

Nebraska (CD1) | 1 EV| (((((17.9%)))))

Montana | 4 EV|      21.4%     

Tennessee |11 EV|      24.0%     

Kentucky | 8 EV|     (24.8%)    

Arkansas | 6 EV|     (24.9%)    

Alabama | 9 EV|    ((25.0%))   

South Dakota | 3 EV|     (25.1%)    

Oklahoma | 7 EV|      25.4%     

North Dakota | 3 EV|   (((28.9%)))  

Idaho | 4 EV|    ((31.1%))   

West Virginia | 4 EV|   (((35.2%)))  

Wyoming | 3 EV|   (((44.8%)))  

Nebraska (CD3) | 1 EV| (((((48.0%)))))

 

Ten most needed polls:
Nebraska (CD2), Maine (CD2), Nebraska (CD1), New Jersey, Delaware,
Mississippi, Maine (CD1), Rhode Island, Indiana, Maine (All)

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

The number of parentheses around the averages indicates the number of "generic" results that were added to fill out the poll average.

Only results with no parentheses represent a true average of only polls asking specifically about the two candidates shown.

 

Weighted Average* of Time Covered by Poll Averages for these candidates is 4.3 years.

*Time covered by poll average in each state weighted by abs(1/margin) in order to give higher weight to closer states.

 

List of all polls for this candidate pair: HTML

 

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

 

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