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2024 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - National Summary
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-03-27 00:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2023-03-31 00:41 UTC
State Breakdown by Category
Click on state names for polling details.
Switch to Column View
Ten most needed polls:
Maine (CD2), Nebraska (CD2), Wisconsin, Minnesota, Virginia,
Indiana, New Jersey, Maine (All), New Mexico, Delaware
Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".
For more information, read the FAQ.
The number of parentheses around the averages indicates the number of "generic" results that were added to fill out the poll average.
Only results with no parentheses represent a true average of only polls asking specifically about the two candidates shown.
Weighted Average* of Time Covered by Poll Averages for these candidates is 5.8 years.
*Time covered by poll average in each state weighted by abs(1/margin) in order to give higher weight to closer states.
List of all polls for this candidate pair: HTML
Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage
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