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2024 Electoral College

Harris vs Trump - Ohio [17 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-11-03 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-11-05 06:42 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Harris vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 Ohio [17 EV] Poll Average

 

Harris Trump
 

 

2024 Ohio [17 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Harris Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Harris Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-11-03 12:00

Trafalgar

45.2%

2.7%

52.1%

Trump
by 6.9%

2024-11-02
2024-11-04

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 06:42

2024-11-03 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

45.2%

1.1%

53.7%

Trump
by 8.5%

2024-11-01
2024-11-04

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 06:09

2024-11-03 00:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

44.6%

1.9%

53.5%

Trump
by 8.9%

2024-11-01
2024-11-04

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 06:07

2024-11-01 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

43.5%

1.8%

54.7%

Trump
by 11.2%

2024-10-30
2024-11-02

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 02:39

2024-11-01 00:00

Emerson [2]

42.0%

4.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2024-10-30
2024-11-02

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 02:34

2024-10-29 12:00

Miami University LV w/5P [2]

47.0%

3.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-10-28
2024-10-30

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 21:43

2024-10-29 12:00

Miami University RV w/5P [2]

46.0%

5.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-10-28
2024-10-30

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 21:42

2024-10-28 00:00

Morning Consult

44.0%

3.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-10-23
2024-11-01

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 16:25

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-10-27 00:00

Trafalgar

45.6%

2.7%

51.7%

Trump
by 6.1%

2024-10-25
2024-10-28

2024-10-29
2024-10-30 00:39

2024-10-23 12:00

JL Partners

44.0%

3.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-10-22
2024-10-24

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 02:41

2024-10-21 00:00

OnMessage w/4P

44.0%

4.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-10-19
2024-10-22

2024-10-25
2024-10-25 17:54

2024-10-18 00:00

FocalData LV w/4P [3]

44.4%

2.4%

53.2%

Trump
by 8.8%

2024-10-03
2024-11-01

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 02:15

2024-10-18 00:00

FocalData RV w/4P [3]

45.3%

2.7%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.7%

2024-10-03
2024-11-01

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 02:14

2024-10-18 00:00

FocalData A w/4P [3]

43.4%

4.5%

52.1%

Trump
by 8.7%

2024-10-03
2024-11-01

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 02:12

2024-10-17 00:00

ActiVote

45.9%

0.0%

54.1%

Trump
by 8.2%

2024-10-05
2024-10-28

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 19:19

2024-10-16 00:00

YouGov

43.0%

7.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-10-10
2024-10-21

2024-10-24
2024-10-25 16:51

2024-10-13 12:00

CCES LV [2]

45.0%

3.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-10-01
2024-10-25

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 21:48

2024-10-13 12:00

CCES All [2]

45.0%

3.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-10-01
2024-10-25

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 21:46

2024-10-11 12:00

Rasmussen

44.0%

5.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-10-09
2024-10-13

2024-10-18
2024-10-22 17:27

2024-10-11 00:00

Morning Consult

45.0%

3.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-10-06
2024-10-15

2024-10-17
2024-10-18 14:35

2024-10-08 12:00

Axis Research

43.0%

10.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-10-08
2024-10-08

2024-10-08
2024-10-15 02:19

2024-10-05 12:00

Washington Post RV [2]

44.0%

5.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-10-03
2024-10-07

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 15:04

2024-10-05 12:00

Washington Post LV [2]

45.0%

4.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-10-03
2024-10-07

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 15:03

2024-10-05 12:00

Marist RV [2]

46.0%

2.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-10-03
2024-10-07

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 14:56

2024-10-05 12:00

Marist LV [2]

46.0%

2.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-10-03
2024-10-07

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 14:55

2024-10-03 12:00

University of Akron Total [2]

44.0%

5.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-09-12
2024-10-24

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 21:54

2024-10-03 12:00

University of Akron Strong [2]

38.0%

15.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-09-12
2024-10-24

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 21:52

2024-10-03 12:00

University of Akron

44.0%

5.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-09-12
2024-10-24

2024-10-31
2024-11-01 22:22

2024-09-25 12:00

Axis Research

43.0%

10.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-09-25
2024-09-25

2024-10-08
2024-10-15 02:16

2024-09-24 00:00

Siena RV wo/Lean w/6P [5]

42.0%

11.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-09-21
2024-09-26

2024-09-28
2024-09-28 17:48

2024-09-24 00:00

Siena RV Combined w/6P [5]

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-09-21
2024-09-26

2024-09-28
2024-09-28 17:46

2024-09-24 00:00

Siena RV [5]

45.0%

6.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-09-21
2024-09-26

2024-09-28
2024-09-28 17:37

2024-09-24 00:00

Siena LV w/6P [5]

43.0%

8.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-09-21
2024-09-26

2024-09-28
2024-09-28 17:35

2024-09-24 00:00

Siena LV [5]

44.0%

6.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-09-21
2024-09-26

2024-09-28
2024-09-28 17:31

2024-09-23 00:00

YouGov

44.0%

5.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-09-18
2024-09-27

2024-10-03
2024-10-04 05:58

2024-09-19 12:00

RMG Research

43.0%

3.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2024-09-18
2024-09-20

2024-09-24
2024-09-24 16:49

2024-09-14 00:00

ActiVote

46.4%

0.0%

53.6%

Trump
by 7.2%

2024-08-28
2024-09-30

2024-10-01
2024-10-01 23:54

2024-09-14 00:00

Morning Consult

43.0%

4.8%

52.2%

Trump
by 9.1%

2024-09-09
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-20 04:17

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData A w/4P [5]

44.5%

3.3%

52.2%

Trump
by 7.7%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 05:11

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData RV w/4P [5]

45.9%

2.6%

51.5%

Trump
by 5.6%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 05:09

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV [5]

46.7%

0.0%

53.3%

Trump
by 6.6%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 05:07

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV w/Squeeze w/4P [5]

45.6%

2.2%

52.2%

Trump
by 6.6%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 05:05

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV w/4P [5]

43.0%

7.1%

49.9%

Trump
by 6.9%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 05:03

2024-09-05 12:00

Axis Research

43.0%

9.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-09-05
2024-09-05

2024-10-08
2024-10-15 02:14

2024-09-04 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

44.7%

1.0%

54.3%

Trump
by 9.6%

2024-09-03
2024-09-05

2024-09-06
2024-09-06 18:38

2024-09-04 12:00

Emerson [2]

43.1%

3.6%

53.3%

Trump
by 10.2%

2024-09-03
2024-09-05

2024-09-06
2024-09-06 18:36

2024-09-04 00:00

Morning Consult

44.0%

4.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-08-30
2024-09-08

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 06:45

2024-09-01 00:00

SoCal RV [2]

43.0%

5.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-08-31
2024-09-01

2024-09-02
2024-09-02 19:15

2024-08-15 12:00

Axis Research

44.0%

11.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-15
2024-08-15

2024-10-08
2024-10-15 02:13

2024-08-12 12:00

ActiVote

43.8%

0.0%

56.2%

Trump
by 12.4%

2024-08-02
2024-08-22

2024-08-22
2024-08-23 01:40

2024-07-26 00:00

Fabrizio Ward [2]

42.0%

6.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2024-07-23
2024-07-28

2024-08-01
2024-08-01 19:04

2024-07-26 00:00

Fabrizio Ward w/5P [2]

39.0%

13.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-07-23
2024-07-28

2024-08-01
2024-08-01 19:01

2024-03-09 00:00

SurveyUSA

38.0%

11.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 13.0%

2024-03-06
2024-03-11

2024-03-14
2024-03-15 02:22

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

45.2%

1.5%

53.3%

REP
by 8.0%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-16 16:29

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

43.6%

4.8%

51.7%

REP
by 8.1%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 04:20

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

50.7%

1.6%

47.7%

DEM
by 3.0%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:05

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

51.5%

1.6%

46.9%

DEM
by 4.6%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-05 08:33

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

48.7%

0.5%

50.8%

REP
by 2.1%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:00

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

46.5%

3.6%

50.0%

REP
by 3.5%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:42

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

47.4%

11.6%

41.0%

DEM
by 6.4%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 18:19

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

40.2%

21.5%

38.4%

DEM
by 1.8%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:37

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

44.2%

0.9%

55.0%

REP
by 10.9%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:40

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

40.1%

1.0%

58.9%

REP
by 18.8%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:49

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

40.9%

7.6%

51.5%

REP
by 10.6%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:04

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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