2024 Electoral College - Harris vs Trump

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2024 Electoral College

Harris vs Trump - Wisconsin [10 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-11-04 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-11-05 19:54 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Switch to Harris vs Trump National Summary

2024 Wisconsin [10 EV] Poll Average

Harris		Trump

2024 Wisconsin [10 EV] Probabilities

Harris		Trump

If the election was now:

Harris		Trump
/td>

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Harris	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2024-11-04 00:00	AtlasIntel [2]	48.6%	1.9%	49.5%	Trump by 0.9%	2024-11-03 2024-11-04	2024-11-04 2024-11-05 06:33
2024-11-04 00:00	AtlasIntel w/4P [2]	47.9%	3.0%	49.1%	Trump by 1.2%	2024-11-03 2024-11-04	2024-11-04 2024-11-05 06:31
2024-11-03 00:00	Research Co	51.0%	2.0%	47.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-11-02 2024-11-03	2024-11-04 2024-11-04 19:50
2024-11-02 12:00	Trafalgar	48.2%	4.8%	47.0%	Harris by 1.2%	2024-11-01 2024-11-03	2024-11-03 2024-11-04 03:42
2024-11-02 12:00	Patriot Polling	49.0%	2.3%	48.7%	Harris by 0.3%	2024-11-01 2024-11-03	2024-11-03 2024-11-03 19:32
2024-11-02 00:00	InsiderAdvantage	48.0%	3.0%	49.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-11-01 2024-11-02	2024-11-03 2024-11-04 02:57
2024-11-02 00:00	AtlasIntel [2]	48.6%	1.8%	49.6%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-11-01 2024-11-02	2024-11-02 2024-11-03 09:12
2024-11-02 00:00	AtlasIntel w/4P [2]	48.0%	2.7%	49.3%	Trump by 1.3%	2024-11-01 2024-11-02	2024-11-02 2024-11-03 09:10

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Harris	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2024-11-01 00:00	Emerson w/Lean [2]	49.5%	0.7%	49.8%	Trump by 0.3%	2024-10-30 2024-11-02	2024-11-04 2024-11-04 18:29
2024-11-01 00:00	Emerson [2]	49.4%	1.2%	49.4%	TIED	2024-10-30 2024-11-02	2024-11-04 2024-11-04 18:26
2024-10-31 00:00	AtlasIntel [2]	49.0%	2.2%	48.8%	Harris by 0.2%	2024-10-30 2024-10-31	2024-10-31 2024-11-01 18:33
2024-10-31 00:00	AtlasIntel w/4P [2]	48.2%	3.3%	48.5%	Trump by 0.3%	2024-10-30 2024-10-31	2024-10-31 2024-11-01 18:31
2024-10-30 12:00	Democracy Institute	47.0%	3.0%	50.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-10-29 2024-10-31	2024-11-04 2024-11-05 19:54
2024-10-30 12:00	OnMessage	47.0%	5.0%	48.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-29 2024-10-31	2024-11-01 2024-11-02 10:10
2024-10-30 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	48.0%	5.0%	47.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-10-28 2024-10-31	2024-11-01 2024-11-02 00:40
2024-10-29 12:00	Mainstreet RV [2]	49.0%	3.0%	48.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-10-25 2024-11-02	2024-11-04 2024-11-04 20:43
2024-10-29 12:00	Mainstreet LV [2]	49.0%	3.0%	48.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-10-25 2024-11-02	2024-11-04 2024-11-04 20:41
2024-10-29 12:00	Siena RV wo/Lean w/6P [5]	47.0%	9.0%	44.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-10-25 2024-11-02	2024-11-03 2024-11-03 18:28
2024-10-29 12:00	Siena RV Combined w/6P [5]	48.0%	7.0%	45.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-10-25 2024-11-02	2024-11-03 2024-11-03 18:26
2024-10-29 12:00	Siena RV [5]	49.0%	4.0%	47.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-10-25 2024-11-02	2024-11-03 2024-11-03 18:25
2024-10-29 12:00	Siena LV w/6P [5]	48.0%	7.0%	45.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-10-25 2024-11-02	2024-11-03 2024-11-03 18:23
2024-10-29 12:00	Siena LV [5]	49.0%	4.0%	47.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-10-25 2024-11-02	2024-11-03 2024-11-03 18:15
2024-10-29 12:00	TIPP Insights LV w/Lean w/5P [5]	48.0%	5.0%	47.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-10-28 2024-10-30	2024-10-31 2024-11-02 03:13
2024-10-29 12:00	TIPP Insights LV w/5P [5]	48.0%	6.0%	46.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-10-28 2024-10-30	2024-10-31 2024-11-02 03:08
2024-10-29 12:00	TIPP Insights RV w/5P [5]	46.0%	10.0%	44.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-10-28 2024-10-30	2024-10-31 2024-11-02 03:06
2024-10-29 12:00	TIPP Insights LV [5]	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2024-10-28 2024-10-30	2024-10-31 2024-11-02 03:04
2024-10-29 12:00	TIPP Insights RV [5]	48.0%	6.0%	46.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-10-28 2024-10-30	2024-10-31 2024-11-02 03:01
2024-10-29 00:00	Echelon Total [3]	49.0%	2.0%	49.0%	TIED	2024-10-27 2024-10-30	2024-10-31 2024-11-02 02:55
2024-10-29 00:00	Echelon Definitely [3]	48.0%	6.0%	46.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-10-27 2024-10-30	2024-10-31 2024-11-02 02:53
2024-10-29 00:00	Echelon w/6P [3]	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2024-10-27 2024-10-30	2024-10-31 2024-11-02 02:48
2024-10-29 00:00	Marist LV [2]	50.0%	2.0%	48.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-10-27 2024-10-30	2024-11-01 2024-11-02 02:44
2024-10-29 00:00	Marist RV [2]	50.0%	2.0%	48.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-10-27 2024-10-30	2024-11-01 2024-11-02 02:41
2024-10-29 00:00	Quantus	48.9%	2.0%	49.1%	Trump by 0.2%	2024-10-28 2024-10-29	2024-10-31 2024-11-02 02:37
2024-10-29 00:00	SoCal	49.0%	2.0%	49.0%	TIED	2024-10-28 2024-10-29	2024-10-30 2024-10-30 17:52
2024-10-28 12:00	YouGov LV [4]	51.0%	2.0%	47.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-10-25 2024-10-31	2024-11-01 2024-11-02 09:44
2024-10-28 12:00	YouGov RV [4]	51.0%	2.0%	47.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-10-25 2024-10-31	2024-11-01 2024-11-02 09:43
2024-10-28 12:00	YouGov LV w/4P [4]	49.0%	6.0%	45.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-10-25 2024-10-31	2024-11-01 2024-11-02 09:41
2024-10-28 12:00	YouGov RV w/4P [4]	48.0%	7.0%	45.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-10-25 2024-10-31	2024-11-01 2024-11-02 09:37
2024-10-27 12:00	Rasmussen	47.0%	3.0%	50.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-10-25 2024-10-29	2024-11-04 2024-11-04 20:22
2024-10-27 12:00	AtlasIntel [2]	48.5%	2.5%	49.0%	Trump by 0.5%	2024-10-25 2024-10-29	2024-10-29 2024-10-30 00:20
2024-10-27 12:00	AtlasIntel w/4P [2]	48.1%	3.2%	48.7%	Trump by 0.6%	2024-10-25 2024-10-29	2024-10-29 2024-10-30 00:18
2024-10-27 00:00	Morning Consult	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2024-10-22 2024-10-31	2024-11-03 2024-11-03 18:47
2024-10-27 00:00	InsiderAdvantage	48.0%	3.0%	49.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-26 2024-10-27	2024-10-29 2024-10-29 19:07
2024-10-26 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	49.0%	4.0%	47.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-10-25 2024-10-27	2024-10-29 2024-10-29 18:37
2024-10-26 00:00	SSRS w/6P	51.0%	4.0%	45.0%	Harris by 6.0%	2024-10-23 2024-10-28	2024-10-30 2024-10-30 18:06
2024-10-22 00:00	Suffolk w/7P	47.0%	5.0%	48.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-20 2024-10-23	2024-10-28 2024-10-28 18:31
2024-10-22 00:00	Emerson w/Lean [2]	49.2%	0.9%	49.9%	Trump by 0.7%	2024-10-21 2024-10-22	2024-10-24 2024-10-24 17:00
2024-10-22 00:00	Emerson [2]	48.4%	2.2%	49.4%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-21 2024-10-22	2024-10-24 2024-10-24 16:58
2024-10-21 12:00	ActiVote	50.9%	0.0%	49.1%	Harris by 1.8%	2024-10-10 2024-11-01	2024-11-02 2024-11-02 17:13
2024-10-21 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	49.0%	4.0%	47.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-10-20 2024-10-22	2024-10-25 2024-10-25 18:42
2024-10-21 00:00	OnMessage w/4P	47.0%	5.0%	48.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-19 2024-10-22	2024-10-25 2024-10-25 17:57
2024-10-20 12:00	Marquette RV w/7P [6]	46.0%	11.0%	43.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-10-16 2024-10-24	2024-10-30 2024-10-30 19:08
2024-10-20 12:00	Marquette RV w/Lean [6]	51.0%	0.0%	49.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-10-16 2024-10-24	2024-10-30 2024-10-30 19:07
2024-10-20 12:00	Marquette RV [6]	48.0%	6.0%	46.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-10-16 2024-10-24	2024-10-30 2024-10-30 19:06
2024-10-20 12:00	Marquette LV [6]	48.0%	5.0%	47.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-10-16 2024-10-24	2024-10-30 2024-10-30 19:03
2024-10-20 12:00	Marquette LV w/Lean [6]	50.0%	1.0%	49.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-10-16 2024-10-24	2024-10-30 2024-10-30 18:53
2024-10-20 12:00	Marquette LV w/7P [6]	46.0%	10.0%	44.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-10-16 2024-10-24	2024-10-30 2024-10-30 18:50
2024-10-19 12:00	Quinnipiac [2]	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2024-10-17 2024-10-21	2024-10-23 2024-10-23 19:37
2024-10-19 12:00	Quinnipiac w/7P [2]	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2024-10-17 2024-10-21	2024-10-23 2024-10-23 19:34
2024-10-19 12:00	Trafalgar	46.6%	6.6%	46.8%	Trump by 0.2%	2024-10-18 2024-10-20	2024-10-22 2024-10-22 17:08
2024-10-18 12:00	Morning Consult LV [4]	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2024-10-16 2024-10-20	2024-10-23 2024-10-24 06:19
2024-10-18 12:00	Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]	47.0%	6.0%	47.0%	TIED	2024-10-16 2024-10-20	2024-10-23 2024-10-24 06:18
2024-10-18 12:00	Morning Consult RV [4]	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2024-10-16 2024-10-20	2024-10-23 2024-10-24 06:14
2024-10-18 12:00	Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]	47.0%	6.0%	47.0%	TIED	2024-10-16 2024-10-20	2024-10-23 2024-10-24 06:11
2024-10-18 00:00	FocalData LV w/4P [3]	49.8%	3.0%	47.2%	Harris by 2.6%	2024-10-03 2024-11-01	2024-11-04 2024-11-05 02:30
2024-10-18 00:00	FocalData RV w/4P [3]	50.6%	3.4%	46.0%	Harris by 4.6%	2024-10-03 2024-11-01	2024-11-04 2024-11-05 02:25
2024-10-18 00:00	FocalData A w/4P [3]	49.4%	5.1%	45.5%	Harris by 3.9%	2024-10-03 2024-11-01	2024-11-04 2024-11-05 02:23
2024-10-17 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	47.0%	7.0%	46.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-10-16 2024-10-18	2024-10-21 2024-10-21 19:36
2024-10-15 00:00	AtlasIntel [2]	49.0%	2.6%	48.4%	Harris by 0.6%	2024-10-12 2024-10-17	2024-10-20 2024-10-20 19:28
2024-10-15 00:00	AtlasIntel w/5P [2]	49.0%	3.0%	48.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-10-12 2024-10-17	2024-10-20 2024-10-20 19:26
2024-10-15 00:00	Bullfinch w/G3P [2]	48.0%	6.0%	46.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-10-11 2024-10-18	2024-10-18 2024-10-20 01:49
2024-10-15 00:00	Bullfinch [2]	50.0%	3.0%	47.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-10-11 2024-10-18	2024-10-18 2024-10-20 01:43
2024-10-13 12:00	CCES LV [2]	50.0%	3.0%	47.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-10-01 2024-10-25	2024-10-29 2024-10-29 22:17
2024-10-13 12:00	CCES All [2]	51.0%	3.0%	46.0%	Harris by 5.0%	2024-10-01 2024-10-25	2024-10-29 2024-10-29 22:15
2024-10-13 12:00	RMG Research w/Lean [2]	49.0%	1.0%	50.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-10 2024-10-16	2024-10-17 2024-10-18 15:18
2024-10-13 12:00	RMG Research [2]	48.0%	3.0%	49.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-10 2024-10-16	2024-10-17 2024-10-18 15:13
2024-10-13 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	48.0%	5.0%	47.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-10-12 2024-10-14	2024-10-16 2024-10-17 05:42
2024-10-13 12:00	Patriot Polling	49.0%	1.0%	50.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-12 2024-10-14	2024-10-15 2024-10-16 08:24
2024-10-11 12:00	Rasmussen	47.0%	4.0%	49.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-10-09 2024-10-13	2024-10-17 2024-10-18 15:23
2024-10-11 00:00	Morning Consult	47.0%	5.0%	48.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-06 2024-10-15	2024-10-17 2024-10-18 15:05
2024-10-09 00:00	InsiderAdvantage	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2024-10-08 2024-10-09	2024-10-10 2024-10-11 21:27
2024-10-08 12:00	American Viewpoint	45.0%	9.0%	46.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-08 2024-10-08	2024-10-08 2024-10-15 02:55
2024-10-08 00:00	Washington Post LV [2]	50.0%	3.0%	47.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-09-30 2024-10-15	2024-10-21 2024-10-21 14:14
2024-10-08 00:00	Washington Post RV [2]	50.0%	4.0%	46.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-09-30 2024-10-15	2024-10-21 2024-10-21 14:12
2024-10-08 00:00	Fabrizio McLaughlin	48.0%	3.0%	49.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-06 2024-10-09	2024-10-10 2024-10-11 18:33
2024-10-07 00:00	Emerson w/Lean [2]	49.2%	0.9%	49.9%	Trump by 0.7%	2024-10-05 2024-10-08	2024-10-10 2024-10-11 16:05
2024-10-07 00:00	Emerson [2]	48.7%	2.0%	49.3%	Trump by 0.6%	2024-10-05 2024-10-08	2024-10-10 2024-10-11 16:03
2024-10-06 12:00	Research Co DV [2]	50.0%	2.0%	48.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-10-05 2024-10-07	2024-10-08 2024-10-08 20:36
2024-10-06 12:00	Research Co RV [2]	47.0%	8.0%	45.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-10-05 2024-10-07	2024-10-08 2024-10-08 20:34
2024-10-05 12:00	Quinnipiac [2]	47.0%	4.0%	49.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-10-03 2024-10-07	2024-10-09 2024-10-10 03:15
2024-10-05 12:00	Quinnipiac w/7P [2]	46.0%	6.0%	48.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-10-03 2024-10-07	2024-10-09 2024-10-10 03:13
2024-10-04 12:00	Arc Insights	47.0%	5.0%	48.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-02 2024-10-06	2024-10-09 2024-10-10 03:36
2024-10-03 12:00	Fabrizio Lee Total [3]	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2024-09-28 2024-10-08	2024-10-11 2024-10-11 17:40
2024-10-03 12:00	Fabrizio Lee Definitely [3]	44.0%	13.0%	43.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-09-28 2024-10-08	2024-10-11 2024-10-11 17:35
2024-10-03 12:00	Fabrizio Lee w/6P [3]	46.0%	9.0%	45.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-09-28 2024-10-08	2024-10-11 2024-10-11 17:33
2024-10-03 00:00	Democracy Institute	46.0%	6.0%	48.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-10-02 2024-10-03	2024-10-04 2024-10-08 06:34
2024-09-30 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	47.0%	7.0%	46.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-09-27 2024-10-02	2024-10-07 2024-10-08 05:47
2024-09-29 12:00	Trafalgar	46.0%	6.9%	47.1%	Trump by 1.1%	2024-09-28 2024-09-30	2024-10-02 2024-10-02 16:20
2024-09-28 12:00	OnMessage	46.0%	7.0%	47.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-09-24 2024-10-02	2024-10-11 2024-10-11 17:56
2024-09-26 12:00	Global Strategy Group [3]	48.0%	6.0%	46.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-09-23 2024-09-29	2024-10-09 2024-10-10 02:34
2024-09-26 12:00	Global Strategy Group w/Lean w/6P [3]	46.0%	9.0%	45.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-09-23 2024-09-29	2024-10-09 2024-10-10 02:32
2024-09-26 12:00	Global Strategy Group w/6P [3]	46.0%	10.0%	44.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-09-23 2024-09-29	2024-10-09 2024-10-10 02:29
2024-09-24 00:00	Siena RV wo/Lean w/6P [5]	47.0%	9.0%	44.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-09-21 2024-09-26	2024-09-28 2024-09-28 18:03
2024-09-24 00:00	Siena RV Combined w/6P [5]	48.0%	7.0%	45.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-09-21 2024-09-26	2024-09-28 2024-09-28 18:01
2024-09-24 00:00	Siena RV [5]	49.0%	4.0%	47.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-09-21 2024-09-26	2024-09-28 2024-09-28 17:59
2024-09-24 00:00	Siena LV w/6P [5]	48.0%	6.0%	46.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-09-21 2024-09-26	2024-09-28 2024-09-28 17:55
2024-09-24 00:00	Siena LV [5]	49.0%	4.0%	47.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-09-21 2024-09-26	2024-09-28 2024-09-28 17:53
2024-09-23 00:00	AtlasIntel w/6P [2]	48.2%	2.2%	49.6%	Trump by 1.4%	2024-09-20 2024-09-25	2024-09-29 2024-09-30 05:56
2024-09-23 00:00	AtlasIntel [2]	48.2%	2.1%	49.7%	Trump by 1.5%	2024-09-20 2024-09-25	2024-09-29 2024-09-30 05:43
2024-09-22 12:00	Marquette LV w/7P [6]	49.0%	9.0%	42.0%	Harris by 7.0%	2024-09-18 2024-09-26	2024-10-02 2024-10-03 04:12
2024-09-22 12:00	Marquette LV w/Lean [6]	52.0%	0.0%	48.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-09-18 2024-09-26	2024-10-02 2024-10-03 04:11
2024-09-22 12:00	Marquette LV [6]	50.0%	5.0%	45.0%	Harris by 5.0%	2024-09-18 2024-09-26	2024-10-02 2024-10-03 04:06
2024-09-22 12:00	Marquette RV w/7P [6]	48.0%	8.0%	44.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-09-18 2024-09-26	2024-10-02 2024-10-03 04:01
2024-09-22 12:00	Marquette RV w/Lean [6]	52.0%	0.0%	48.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-09-18 2024-09-26	2024-10-02 2024-10-03 03:59
2024-09-22 12:00	Marquette RV [6]	50.0%	5.0%	45.0%	Harris by 5.0%	2024-09-18 2024-09-26	2024-10-02 2024-10-03 03:57
2024-09-22 12:00	BSG/GS [2]	49.0%	4.0%	47.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-09-19 2024-09-25	2024-10-02 2024-10-02 16:01
2024-09-22 12:00	BSG/GS w/5P [2]	48.0%	6.0%	46.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-09-19 2024-09-25	2024-10-02 2024-10-02 16:00
2024-09-22 12:00	Morning Consult LV [4]	51.0%	1.0%	48.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-09-19 2024-09-25	2024-09-26 2024-09-27 08:29
2024-09-22 12:00	Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]	50.0%	3.0%	47.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-09-19 2024-09-25	2024-09-26 2024-09-27 08:28
2024-09-22 12:00	Morning Consult RV [4]	50.0%	2.0%	48.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-09-19 2024-09-25	2024-09-26 2024-09-27 08:26
2024-09-22 12:00	Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]	49.0%	4.0%	47.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-09-19 2024-09-25	2024-09-26 2024-09-27 08:23
2024-09-21 12:00	Rodriguez Gudelunas	51.0%	4.0%	45.0%	Harris by 6.0%	2024-09-19 2024-09-23	2024-10-02 2024-10-23 19:21
2024-09-21 00:00	Rasmussen	49.0%	2.0%	49.0%	TIED	2024-09-19 2024-09-22	2024-09-26 2024-09-27 08:55
2024-09-20 12:00	RMG Research w/Lean [2]	50.0%	1.0%	49.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-09-17 2024-09-23	2024-09-26 2024-09-27 09:02
2024-09-20 12:00	RMG Research [2]	49.0%	3.0%	48.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-09-17 2024-09-23	2024-09-26 2024-09-27 08:59
2024-09-18 12:00	Remington w/4P	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2024-09-16 2024-09-20	2024-10-01 2024-10-01 22:42
2024-09-18 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	47.0%	6.0%	47.0%	TIED	2024-09-16 2024-09-19	2024-09-23 2024-09-23 18:02
2024-09-17 00:00	Emerson w/Lean [2]	48.7%	1.0%	50.3%	Trump by 1.6%	2024-09-15 2024-09-18	2024-09-19 2024-09-19 19:18
2024-09-17 00:00	Emerson [2]	48.0%	2.9%	49.1%	Trump by 1.1%	2024-09-15 2024-09-18	2024-09-19 2024-09-19 19:16
2024-09-15 12:00	American Viewpoint	45.0%	12.0%	43.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-09-15 2024-09-15	2024-10-08 2024-10-15 02:52
2024-09-15 12:00	MassINC [3]	53.0%	1.0%	46.0%	Harris by 7.0%	2024-09-12 2024-09-18	2024-09-23 2024-09-23 16:31
2024-09-15 12:00	MassINC w/Lean w/6P [3]	51.0%	4.0%	45.0%	Harris by 6.0%	2024-09-12 2024-09-18	2024-09-23 2024-09-23 16:29
2024-09-15 12:00	MassINC Initial w/6P [3]	51.0%	6.0%	43.0%	Harris by 8.0%	2024-09-12 2024-09-18	2024-09-23 2024-09-23 16:25
2024-09-15 00:00	Marist RV [2]	50.0%	3.0%	47.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-09-12 2024-09-17	2024-09-19 2024-09-19 20:53
2024-09-15 00:00	Marist LV [2]	50.0%	1.0%	49.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-09-12 2024-09-17	2024-09-19 2024-09-19 20:50
2024-09-14 12:00	Quinnipiac [2]	49.0%	3.0%	48.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-09-12 2024-09-16	2024-09-18 2024-09-18 18:20
2024-09-14 12:00	Quinnipiac w/7P [2]	48.0%	5.0%	47.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-09-12 2024-09-16	2024-09-18 2024-09-18 18:17
2024-09-14 00:00	ActiVote	52.1%	0.0%	47.9%	Harris by 4.2%	2024-08-29 2024-09-29	2024-09-30 2024-09-30 16:37
2024-09-14 00:00	Morning Consult	50.2%	5.5%	44.3%	Harris by 5.9%	2024-09-09 2024-09-18	2024-09-19 2024-09-20 04:04
2024-09-13 00:00	Fabrizio Ward [2]	49.0%	3.0%	48.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-09-11 2024-09-14	2024-09-18 2024-09-18 16:45
2024-09-13 00:00	Fabrizio Ward w/7P [2]	48.0%	7.0%	45.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-09-11 2024-09-14	2024-09-18 2024-09-18 16:43
2024-09-12 00:00	InsiderAdvantage	49.0%	4.0%	47.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-09-11 2024-09-12	2024-09-14 2024-09-14 20:48
2024-09-10 00:00	FocalData A w/4P [5]	51.3%	3.1%	45.6%	Harris by 5.7%	2024-09-03 2024-09-16	2024-09-25 2024-09-26 05:33
2024-09-10 00:00	FocalData RV w/4P [5]	52.4%	2.3%	45.3%	Harris by 7.1%	2024-09-03 2024-09-16	2024-09-25 2024-09-26 05:31
2024-09-10 00:00	FocalData LV [5]	53.1%	0.0%	46.9%	Harris by 6.2%	2024-09-03 2024-09-16	2024-09-25 2024-09-26 05:28
2024-09-10 00:00	FocalData LV w/Squeeze w/4P [5]	51.5%	2.4%	46.1%	Harris by 5.4%	2024-09-03 2024-09-16	2024-09-25 2024-09-26 05:27
2024-09-10 00:00	FocalData LV w/4P [5]	50.3%	5.4%	44.3%	Harris by 6.0%	2024-09-03 2024-09-16	2024-09-25 2024-09-26 05:25
2024-09-08 00:00	Redfield & Wilton	49.0%	5.0%	46.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-09-06 2024-09-09	2024-09-10 2024-09-11 01:27
2024-09-05 12:00	American Viewpoint	46.0%	8.0%	46.0%	TIED	2024-09-05 2024-09-05	2024-10-08 2024-10-15 02:50
2024-09-05 12:00	co/efficient	47.0%	6.0%	47.0%	TIED	2024-09-04 2024-09-06	2024-09-10 2024-09-11 01:38
2024-09-05 00:00	YouGov	51.0%	0.0%	49.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-09-03 2024-09-06	2024-09-08 2024-09-08 18:31
2024-09-04 00:00	Morning Consult	49.0%	5.0%	46.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-08-30 2024-09-08	2024-09-09 2024-09-10 07:04
2024-09-02 12:00	Patriot Polling	47.9%	4.4%	47.7%	Harris by 0.2%	2024-09-01 2024-09-03	2024-09-05 2024-09-06 05:47
2024-09-01 12:00	Marquette LV w/7P [6]	48.0%	9.0%	43.0%	Harris by 5.0%	2024-08-28 2024-09-05	2024-09-11 2024-09-12 02:34
2024-09-01 12:00	Marquette LV w/Lean [6]	52.0%	0.0%	48.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-08-28 2024-09-05	2024-09-11 2024-09-12 02:32
2024-09-01 12:00	Marquette LV [6]	49.0%	7.0%	44.0%	Harris by 5.0%	2024-08-28 2024-09-05	2024-09-11 2024-09-12 02:30
2024-09-01 12:00	Marquette RV w/7P [6]	47.0%	10.0%	43.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-08-28 2024-09-05	2024-09-11 2024-09-12 02:28
2024-09-01 12:00	Marquette RV w/Lean [6]	52.0%	0.0%	48.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-08-28 2024-09-05	2024-09-11 2024-09-12 02:27
2024-09-01 12:00	Marquette RV [6]	49.0%	6.0%	45.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-08-28 2024-09-05	2024-09-11 2024-09-12 02:24
2024-08-29 12:00	Trafalgar	46.2%	6.5%	47.3%	Trump by 1.1%	2024-08-28 2024-08-30	2024-08-31 2024-08-31 19:31
2024-08-29 00:00	YouGov	47.0%	9.0%	44.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-08-23 2024-09-03	2024-09-05 2024-09-06 06:17
2024-08-27 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	48.0%	8.0%	44.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-08-25 2024-08-28	2024-08-30 2024-08-30 18:15
2024-08-27 00:00	Emerson w/Lean [2]	49.1%	1.1%	49.8%	Trump by 0.7%	2024-08-25 2024-08-28	2024-08-29 2024-08-29 16:21
2024-08-27 00:00	Emerson [2]	48.3%	2.6%	49.1%	Trump by 0.8%	2024-08-25 2024-08-28	2024-08-29 2024-08-29 16:18
2024-08-26 12:00	SSRS w/4P	50.0%	6.0%	44.0%	Harris by 6.0%	2024-08-23 2024-08-29	2024-09-04 2024-09-04 21:47
2024-08-25 00:00	Z to A w/5P	47.0%	6.0%	47.0%	TIED	2024-08-23 2024-08-26	2024-09-05 2024-09-05 17:49
2024-08-25 00:00	Morning Consult LV [4]	53.0%	3.0%	44.0%	Harris by 9.0%	2024-08-23 2024-08-26	2024-08-29 2024-08-30 05:48
2024-08-25 00:00	Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]	52.0%	4.0%	44.0%	Harris by 8.0%	2024-08-23 2024-08-26	2024-08-29 2024-08-30 05:46
2024-08-25 00:00	Morning Consult RV [4]	52.0%	4.0%	44.0%	Harris by 8.0%	2024-08-23 2024-08-26	2024-08-29 2024-08-30 05:44
2024-08-25 00:00	Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]	51.0%	5.0%	44.0%	Harris by 7.0%	2024-08-23 2024-08-26	2024-08-29 2024-08-30 05:42
2024-08-20 12:00	BK Strategies	48.0%	7.0%	45.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-08-19 2024-08-21	2024-09-09 2024-09-09 19:08
2024-08-20 12:00	Fabrizio Ward [2]	49.0%	6.0%	45.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-08-19 2024-08-21	2024-08-29 2024-08-29 16:59
2024-08-20 12:00	Fabrizio Ward w/6P [2]	47.0%	11.0%	42.0%	Harris by 5.0%	2024-08-19 2024-08-21	2024-08-29 2024-08-29 16:55
2024-08-19 12:00	YouGov LV w/6P [4]	49.0%	6.0%	45.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-08-15 2024-08-23	2024-09-09 2024-09-10 04:44
2024-08-19 12:00	YouGov All w/6P [4]	45.0%	15.0%	40.0%	Harris by 5.0%	2024-08-15 2024-08-23	2024-09-09 2024-09-10 04:42
2024-08-19 12:00	YouGov LV [4]	51.0%	3.0%	46.0%	Harris by 5.0%	2024-08-15 2024-08-23	2024-09-09 2024-09-10 04:39
2024-08-19 12:00	YouGov All [4]	48.0%	10.0%	42.0%	Harris by 6.0%	2024-08-15 2024-08-23	2024-09-09 2024-09-10 04:35
2024-08-17 12:00	Spry w/4P [2]	46.3%	11.3%	42.4%	Harris by 3.9%	2024-08-14 2024-08-20	2024-08-29 2024-08-30 06:27
2024-08-17 12:00	Spry [2]	47.9%	6.9%	45.2%	Harris by 2.7%	2024-08-14 2024-08-20	2024-08-29 2024-08-30 06:25
2024-08-16 12:00	Rasmussen w/6P [2]	46.0%	8.0%	46.0%	TIED	2024-08-13 2024-08-19	2024-08-27 2024-09-04 02:51
2024-08-16 12:00	Rasmussen [2]	48.0%	5.0%	47.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-08-13 2024-08-19	2024-08-27 2024-09-04 02:49
2024-08-15 00:00	Quantus [2]	47.8%	5.3%	46.9%	Harris by 0.9%	2024-08-14 2024-08-15	2024-08-16 2024-08-17 06:12
2024-08-15 00:00	Quantus w/Other [2]	46.2%	9.2%	44.6%	Harris by 1.6%	2024-08-14 2024-08-15	2024-08-16 2024-08-17 06:09
2024-08-14 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/3P	48.0%	8.0%	44.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-08-12 2024-08-15	2024-08-19 2024-08-19 19:28
2024-08-13 12:00	TIPP Insights LV w/5P [4]	45.7%	10.5%	43.8%	Harris by 1.9%	2024-08-12 2024-08-14	2024-08-15 2024-08-16 06:30
2024-08-13 12:00	TIPP Insights RV w/5P [4]	45.3%	11.6%	43.1%	Harris by 2.2%	2024-08-12 2024-08-14	2024-08-15 2024-08-16 06:27
2024-08-13 12:00	TIPP Insights LV [4]	47.2%	5.8%	47.0%	Harris by 0.2%	2024-08-12 2024-08-14	2024-08-15 2024-08-16 06:24
2024-08-13 12:00	TIPP Insights RV [4]	47.0%	6.9%	46.1%	Harris by 0.9%	2024-08-12 2024-08-14	2024-08-15 2024-08-16 06:21
2024-08-11 12:00	Focaldata LV [4]	52.0%	0.0%	48.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-08-06 2024-08-16	2024-08-19 2024-08-19 22:23
2024-08-11 12:00	Focaldata AV w/5P [4]	50.0%	7.0%	43.0%	Harris by 7.0%	2024-08-06 2024-08-16	2024-08-19 2024-08-19 22:21
2024-08-11 12:00	Focaldata RV w/5P [4]	50.0%	8.0%	42.0%	Harris by 8.0%	2024-08-06 2024-08-16	2024-08-19 2024-08-19 22:19
2024-08-11 12:00	Focaldata LV w/5P [4]	50.0%	6.0%	44.0%	Harris by 6.0%	2024-08-06 2024-08-16	2024-08-19 2024-08-19 22:16
2024-08-10 00:00	Bullfinch w/5P [2]	49.0%	11.0%	40.0%	Harris by 9.0%	2024-08-08 2024-08-11	2024-08-12 2024-08-12 18:59
2024-08-10 00:00	Bullfinch [2]	51.0%	7.0%	42.0%	Harris by 9.0%	2024-08-08 2024-08-11	2024-08-12 2024-08-12 18:58
2024-08-07 12:00	InsiderAdvantage	48.0%	3.0%	49.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-08-06 2024-08-08	2024-08-09 2024-08-10 01:52
2024-08-07 00:00	Siena LV w/6P [4]	49.0%	8.0%	43.0%	Harris by 6.0%	2024-08-05 2024-08-08	2024-08-10 2024-08-10 14:49
2024-08-07 00:00	Siena LV [4]	50.0%	4.0%	46.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-08-05 2024-08-08	2024-08-10 2024-08-10 14:47
2024-08-07 00:00	Siena RV w/6P [4]	49.0%	9.0%	42.0%	Harris by 7.0%	2024-08-05 2024-08-08	2024-08-10 2024-08-10 14:45
2024-08-07 00:00	Siena RV [4]	50.0%	4.0%	46.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-08-05 2024-08-08	2024-08-10 2024-08-10 14:42
2024-08-04 12:00	Navigator [3]	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2024-07-31 2024-08-08	2024-08-20 2024-08-20 20:40
2024-08-04 12:00	Navigator w/Lean w/6P [3]	45.0%	10.0%	45.0%	TIED	2024-07-31 2024-08-08	2024-08-20 2024-08-20 20:38
2024-08-04 12:00	Navigator wo/Lean w/6P [3]	45.0%	12.0%	43.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-07-31 2024-08-08	2024-08-20 2024-08-20 20:36
2024-08-03 00:00	RMG Research	48.0%	7.0%	45.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-07-31 2024-08-05	2024-08-08 2024-08-08 16:44
2024-08-02 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/3P	43.0%	14.0%	43.0%	TIED	2024-07-31 2024-08-03	2024-08-06 2024-08-06 17:07
2024-07-30 00:00	BSG/GS [2]	49.0%	5.0%	46.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-07-26 2024-08-02	2024-08-14 2024-08-14 12:32
2024-07-30 00:00	BSG/GS w/3P [2]	48.0%	9.0%	43.0%	Harris by 5.0%	2024-07-26 2024-08-02	2024-08-14 2024-08-14 12:30
2024-07-28 12:00	Marquette LV w/7P [6]	46.0%	9.0%	45.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-07-24 2024-08-01	2024-08-07 2024-08-07 18:52
2024-07-28 12:00	Marquette LV w/Lean [6]	50.0%	1.0%	49.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-07-24 2024-08-01	2024-08-07 2024-08-07 18:51
2024-07-28 12:00	Marquette LV [6]	49.0%	6.0%	45.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-07-24 2024-08-01	2024-08-07 2024-08-07 18:48
2024-07-28 12:00	Marquette RV w/7P [6]	45.0%	12.0%	43.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-07-24 2024-08-01	2024-08-07 2024-08-07 18:45
2024-07-28 12:00	Marquette RV w/Lean [6]	49.0%	1.0%	50.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-07-24 2024-08-01	2024-08-07 2024-08-07 18:44
2024-07-28 12:00	Marquette RV [6]	47.0%	9.0%	44.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-07-24 2024-08-01	2024-08-07 2024-08-07 18:41
2024-07-26 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies	48.0%	6.0%	46.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-07-23 2024-07-29	2024-08-01 2024-08-01 15:11
2024-07-26 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	49.0%	4.0%	47.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-07-24 2024-07-28	2024-07-30 2024-07-30 22:03
2024-07-26 12:00	Morning Consult w/5P [2]	44.0%	11.0%	45.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-07-24 2024-07-28	2024-07-30 2024-07-30 22:01
2024-07-23 12:00	Beacon/Shaw [2]	49.0%	1.0%	50.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-07-22 2024-07-24	2024-07-26 2024-07-27 01:23
2024-07-23 12:00	Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]	46.0%	8.0%	46.0%	TIED	2024-07-22 2024-07-24	2024-07-26 2024-07-27 01:20
2024-07-23 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/5P	44.0%	12.0%	44.0%	TIED	2024-07-22 2024-07-24	2024-07-26 2024-07-26 14:46
2024-07-23 00:00	Emerson w/4P [3]	45.4%	9.7%	44.9%	Harris by 0.5%	2024-07-22 2024-07-23	2024-07-25 2024-07-25 14:53
2024-07-23 00:00	Emerson w/Lean [3]	50.6%	0.0%	49.4%	Harris by 1.2%	2024-07-22 2024-07-23	2024-07-25 2024-07-25 14:51
2024-07-23 00:00	Emerson [3]	47.4%	5.3%	47.3%	Harris by 0.1%	2024-07-22 2024-07-23	2024-07-25 2024-07-25 14:48
2024-07-15 00:00	Civiqs w/3P	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2024-07-13 2024-07-16	2024-07-19 2024-07-19 22:55
2024-07-11 00:00	PPP	48.0%	3.0%	49.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-07-10 2024-07-11	2024-07-22 2024-07-24 18:13
2024-07-08 12:00	North Star	47.0%	5.0%	48.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-07-06 2024-07-10	2024-07-12 2024-07-12 17:37
2024-05-10 12:00	Morning Consult	41.0%	10.0%	49.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2024-05-07 2024-05-13	2024-05-22 2024-05-23 21:10
2024-02-22 12:00	Emerson	43.6%	9.4%	47.0%	Trump by 3.4%	2024-02-20 2024-02-24	2024-02-27 2024-02-28 03:53
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV [2]	46.0%	6.0%	48.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 18:34
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV [2]	46.0%	7.0%	47.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 16:58
2020-11-03 12:00	Election2020	49.5%	1.7%	48.8%	DEM by 0.6%	2020-11-03 2020-11-03	2020-11-03 2023-03-17 06:24
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	46.5%	6.3%	47.2%	REP by 0.8%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-24 18:34
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	52.8%	1.3%	45.9%	DEM by 6.9%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:19
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	56.2%	1.5%	42.3%	DEM by 13.9%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-10-06 05:22
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	49.7%	1.0%	49.3%	DEM by 0.4%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:19
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	47.8%	4.6%	47.6%	DEM by 0.2%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 11:16
1996-11-05 12:00	Election1996	48.8%	12.7%	38.5%	DEM by 10.3%	1996-11-05 1996-11-05	1996-11-05 2014-02-18 15:53
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	41.1%	22.1%	36.8%	DEM by 4.4%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 07:09
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	51.4%	0.8%	47.8%	DEM by 3.6%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 20:13
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	45.0%	0.8%	54.2%	REP by 9.2%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-24 07:46
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	43.2%	8.9%	47.9%	REP by 4.7%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:35

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

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If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

For more information, read the FAQ.

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