2024 Electoral College

Harris vs Trump - Wisconsin [10 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-10-03 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-10-08 06:34 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Harris vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 Wisconsin [10 EV] Poll Average

 

Harris Trump
 

 

2024 Wisconsin [10 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Harris Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Harris Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-10-03 00:00

Democracy Institute

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-02
2024-10-03

2024-10-04
2024-10-08 06:34

2024-09-30 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

7.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-27
2024-10-02

2024-10-07
2024-10-08 05:47

2024-09-29 12:00

Trafalgar

46.0%

6.9%

47.1%

Trump
by 1.1%

2024-09-28
2024-09-30

2024-10-02
2024-10-02 16:20

2024-09-24 00:00

Siena RV wo/Lean w/6P [5]

47.0%

9.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-21
2024-09-26

2024-09-28
2024-09-28 18:03

2024-09-24 00:00

Siena RV Combined w/6P [5]

48.0%

7.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-21
2024-09-26

2024-09-28
2024-09-28 18:01

2024-09-24 00:00

Siena RV [5]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-21
2024-09-26

2024-09-28
2024-09-28 17:59

2024-09-24 00:00

Siena LV w/6P [5]

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-21
2024-09-26

2024-09-28
2024-09-28 17:55

2024-09-24 00:00

Siena LV [5]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-21
2024-09-26

2024-09-28
2024-09-28 17:53

2024-09-23 00:00

AtlasIntel w/6P [2]

48.2%

2.2%

49.6%

Trump
by 1.4%

2024-09-20
2024-09-25

2024-09-29
2024-09-30 05:56

2024-09-23 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

48.2%

2.1%

49.7%

Trump
by 1.5%

2024-09-20
2024-09-25

2024-09-29
2024-09-30 05:43

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-09-22 12:00

Marquette LV w/7P [6]

49.0%

9.0%

42.0%

Harris
by 7.0%

2024-09-18
2024-09-26

2024-10-02
2024-10-03 04:12

2024-09-22 12:00

Marquette LV w/Lean [6]

52.0%

0.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-09-18
2024-09-26

2024-10-02
2024-10-03 04:11

2024-09-22 12:00

Marquette LV [6]

50.0%

5.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-09-18
2024-09-26

2024-10-02
2024-10-03 04:06

2024-09-22 12:00

Marquette RV w/7P [6]

48.0%

8.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-09-18
2024-09-26

2024-10-02
2024-10-03 04:01

2024-09-22 12:00

Marquette RV w/Lean [6]

52.0%

0.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-09-18
2024-09-26

2024-10-02
2024-10-03 03:59

2024-09-22 12:00

Marquette RV [6]

50.0%

5.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-09-18
2024-09-26

2024-10-02
2024-10-03 03:57

2024-09-22 12:00

BSG/GS [2]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-10-02
2024-10-02 16:01

2024-09-22 12:00

BSG/GS w/5P [2]

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-10-02
2024-10-02 16:00

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult LV [4]

51.0%

1.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 08:29

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]

50.0%

3.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 08:28

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult RV [4]

50.0%

2.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 08:26

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 08:23

2024-09-21 00:00

Rasmussen

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-09-19
2024-09-22

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 08:55

2024-09-20 12:00

RMG Research w/Lean [2]

50.0%

1.0%

49.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-17
2024-09-23

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 09:02

2024-09-20 12:00

RMG Research [2]

49.0%

3.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-17
2024-09-23

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 08:59

2024-09-18 12:00

Remington w/4P

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-09-16
2024-09-20

2024-10-01
2024-10-01 22:42

2024-09-18 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-09-16
2024-09-19

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 18:02

2024-09-17 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

48.7%

1.0%

50.3%

Trump
by 1.6%

2024-09-15
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 19:18

2024-09-17 00:00

Emerson [2]

48.0%

2.9%

49.1%

Trump
by 1.1%

2024-09-15
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 19:16

2024-09-15 12:00

MassINC [3]

53.0%

1.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 7.0%

2024-09-12
2024-09-18

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 16:31

2024-09-15 12:00

MassINC w/Lean w/6P [3]

51.0%

4.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 6.0%

2024-09-12
2024-09-18

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 16:29

2024-09-15 12:00

MassINC Initial w/6P [3]

51.0%

6.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 8.0%

2024-09-12
2024-09-18

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 16:25

2024-09-15 00:00

Marist RV [2]

50.0%

3.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-12
2024-09-17

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 20:53

2024-09-15 00:00

Marist LV [2]

50.0%

1.0%

49.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-12
2024-09-17

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 20:50

2024-09-14 12:00

Quinnipiac [2]

49.0%

3.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-12
2024-09-16

2024-09-18
2024-09-18 18:20

2024-09-14 12:00

Quinnipiac w/7P [2]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-12
2024-09-16

2024-09-18
2024-09-18 18:17

2024-09-14 00:00

ActiVote

52.1%

0.0%

47.9%

Harris
by 4.2%

2024-08-29
2024-09-29

2024-09-30
2024-09-30 16:37

2024-09-14 00:00

Morning Consult

50.2%

5.5%

44.3%

Harris
by 5.9%

2024-09-09
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-20 04:04

2024-09-13 00:00

Fabrizio Ward [2]

49.0%

3.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-11
2024-09-14

2024-09-18
2024-09-18 16:45

2024-09-13 00:00

Fabrizio Ward w/7P [2]

48.0%

7.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-11
2024-09-14

2024-09-18
2024-09-18 16:43

2024-09-12 00:00

InsiderAdvantage

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-11
2024-09-12

2024-09-14
2024-09-14 20:48

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData A w/4P [5]

51.3%

3.1%

45.6%

Harris
by 5.7%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 05:33

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData RV w/4P [5]

52.4%

2.3%

45.3%

Harris
by 7.1%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 05:31

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV [5]

53.1%

0.0%

46.9%

Harris
by 6.2%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 05:28

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV w/Squeeze w/4P [5]

51.5%

2.4%

46.1%

Harris
by 5.4%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 05:27

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV w/4P [5]

50.3%

5.4%

44.3%

Harris
by 6.0%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 05:25

2024-09-08 00:00

Redfield & Wilton

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-06
2024-09-09

2024-09-10
2024-09-11 01:27

2024-09-05 12:00

co/efficient

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-09-04
2024-09-06

2024-09-10
2024-09-11 01:38

2024-09-05 00:00

YouGov

51.0%

0.0%

49.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-03
2024-09-06

2024-09-08
2024-09-08 18:31

2024-09-04 00:00

Morning Consult

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-08-30
2024-09-08

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 07:04

2024-09-02 12:00

Patriot Polling

47.9%

4.4%

47.7%

Harris
by 0.2%

2024-09-01
2024-09-03

2024-09-05
2024-09-06 05:47

2024-09-01 12:00

Marquette LV w/7P [6]

48.0%

9.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-08-28
2024-09-05

2024-09-11
2024-09-12 02:34

2024-09-01 12:00

Marquette LV w/Lean [6]

52.0%

0.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-28
2024-09-05

2024-09-11
2024-09-12 02:32

2024-09-01 12:00

Marquette LV [6]

49.0%

7.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-08-28
2024-09-05

2024-09-11
2024-09-12 02:30

2024-09-01 12:00

Marquette RV w/7P [6]

47.0%

10.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-28
2024-09-05

2024-09-11
2024-09-12 02:28

2024-09-01 12:00

Marquette RV w/Lean [6]

52.0%

0.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-28
2024-09-05

2024-09-11
2024-09-12 02:27

2024-09-01 12:00

Marquette RV [6]

49.0%

6.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-28
2024-09-05

2024-09-11
2024-09-12 02:24

2024-08-29 12:00

Trafalgar

46.2%

6.5%

47.3%

Trump
by 1.1%

2024-08-28
2024-08-30

2024-08-31
2024-08-31 19:31

2024-08-29 00:00

YouGov

47.0%

9.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-08-23
2024-09-03

2024-09-05
2024-09-06 06:17

2024-08-27 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

48.0%

8.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-25
2024-08-28

2024-08-30
2024-08-30 18:15

2024-08-27 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

49.1%

1.1%

49.8%

Trump
by 0.7%

2024-08-25
2024-08-28

2024-08-29
2024-08-29 16:21

2024-08-27 00:00

Emerson [2]

48.3%

2.6%

49.1%

Trump
by 0.8%

2024-08-25
2024-08-28

2024-08-29
2024-08-29 16:18

2024-08-26 12:00

SSRS w/4P

50.0%

6.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 6.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-29

2024-09-04
2024-09-04 21:47

2024-08-25 00:00

Z to A w/5P

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-09-05
2024-09-05 17:49

2024-08-25 00:00

Morning Consult LV [4]

53.0%

3.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 9.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 05:48

2024-08-25 00:00

Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]

52.0%

4.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 8.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 05:46

2024-08-25 00:00

Morning Consult RV [4]

52.0%

4.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 8.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 05:44

2024-08-25 00:00

Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]

51.0%

5.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 7.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 05:42

2024-08-20 12:00

BK Strategies

48.0%

7.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-08-19
2024-08-21

2024-09-09
2024-09-09 19:08

2024-08-20 12:00

Fabrizio Ward [2]

49.0%

6.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-19
2024-08-21

2024-08-29
2024-08-29 16:59

2024-08-20 12:00

Fabrizio Ward w/6P [2]

47.0%

11.0%

42.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-08-19
2024-08-21

2024-08-29
2024-08-29 16:55

2024-08-19 12:00

YouGov LV w/6P [4]

49.0%

6.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-15
2024-08-23

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 04:44

2024-08-19 12:00

YouGov All w/6P [4]

45.0%

15.0%

40.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-08-15
2024-08-23

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 04:42

2024-08-19 12:00

YouGov LV [4]

51.0%

3.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-08-15
2024-08-23

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 04:39

2024-08-19 12:00

YouGov All [4]

48.0%

10.0%

42.0%

Harris
by 6.0%

2024-08-15
2024-08-23

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 04:35

2024-08-17 12:00

Spry w/4P [2]

46.3%

11.3%

42.4%

Harris
by 3.9%

2024-08-14
2024-08-20

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 06:27

2024-08-17 12:00

Spry [2]

47.9%

6.9%

45.2%

Harris
by 2.7%

2024-08-14
2024-08-20

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 06:25

2024-08-16 12:00

Rasmussen w/6P [2]

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-08-13
2024-08-19

2024-08-27
2024-09-04 02:51

2024-08-16 12:00

Rasmussen [2]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-08-13
2024-08-19

2024-08-27
2024-09-04 02:49

2024-08-15 00:00

Quantus [2]

47.8%

5.3%

46.9%

Harris
by 0.9%

2024-08-14
2024-08-15

2024-08-16
2024-08-17 06:12

2024-08-15 00:00

Quantus w/Other [2]

46.2%

9.2%

44.6%

Harris
by 1.6%

2024-08-14
2024-08-15

2024-08-16
2024-08-17 06:09

2024-08-14 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

48.0%

8.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-12
2024-08-15

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 19:28

2024-08-13 12:00

TIPP Insights LV w/5P [4]

45.7%

10.5%

43.8%

Harris
by 1.9%

2024-08-12
2024-08-14

2024-08-15
2024-08-16 06:30

2024-08-13 12:00

TIPP Insights RV w/5P [4]

45.3%

11.6%

43.1%

Harris
by 2.2%

2024-08-12
2024-08-14

2024-08-15
2024-08-16 06:27

2024-08-13 12:00

TIPP Insights LV [4]

47.2%

5.8%

47.0%

Harris
by 0.2%

2024-08-12
2024-08-14

2024-08-15
2024-08-16 06:24

2024-08-13 12:00

TIPP Insights RV [4]

47.0%

6.9%

46.1%

Harris
by 0.9%

2024-08-12
2024-08-14

2024-08-15
2024-08-16 06:21

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata LV [4]

52.0%

0.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 22:23

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata AV w/5P [4]

50.0%

7.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 7.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 22:21

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata RV w/5P [4]

50.0%

8.0%

42.0%

Harris
by 8.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 22:19

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata LV w/5P [4]

50.0%

6.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 6.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 22:16

2024-08-10 00:00

Bullfinch w/5P [2]

49.0%

11.0%

40.0%

Harris
by 9.0%

2024-08-08
2024-08-11

2024-08-12
2024-08-12 18:59

2024-08-10 00:00

Bullfinch [2]

51.0%

7.0%

42.0%

Harris
by 9.0%

2024-08-08
2024-08-11

2024-08-12
2024-08-12 18:58

2024-08-07 12:00

InsiderAdvantage

48.0%

3.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-08

2024-08-09
2024-08-10 01:52

2024-08-07 00:00

Siena LV w/6P [4]

49.0%

8.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 6.0%

2024-08-05
2024-08-08

2024-08-10
2024-08-10 14:49

2024-08-07 00:00

Siena LV [4]

50.0%

4.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-05
2024-08-08

2024-08-10
2024-08-10 14:47

2024-08-07 00:00

Siena RV w/6P [4]

49.0%

9.0%

42.0%

Harris
by 7.0%

2024-08-05
2024-08-08

2024-08-10
2024-08-10 14:45

2024-08-07 00:00

Siena RV [4]

50.0%

4.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-05
2024-08-08

2024-08-10
2024-08-10 14:42

2024-08-04 12:00

Navigator [3]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-07-31
2024-08-08

2024-08-20
2024-08-20 20:40

2024-08-04 12:00

Navigator w/Lean w/6P [3]

45.0%

10.0%

45.0%

TIED

2024-07-31
2024-08-08

2024-08-20
2024-08-20 20:38

2024-08-04 12:00

Navigator wo/Lean w/6P [3]

45.0%

12.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-07-31
2024-08-08

2024-08-20
2024-08-20 20:36

2024-08-03 00:00

RMG Research

48.0%

7.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-07-31
2024-08-05

2024-08-08
2024-08-08 16:44

2024-08-02 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

43.0%

14.0%

43.0%

TIED

2024-07-31
2024-08-03

2024-08-06
2024-08-06 17:07

2024-07-30 00:00

BSG/GS [2]

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-07-26
2024-08-02

2024-08-14
2024-08-14 12:32

2024-07-30 00:00

BSG/GS w/3P [2]

48.0%

9.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-07-26
2024-08-02

2024-08-14
2024-08-14 12:30

2024-07-28 12:00

Marquette LV w/7P [6]

46.0%

9.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-07-24
2024-08-01

2024-08-07
2024-08-07 18:52

2024-07-28 12:00

Marquette LV w/Lean [6]

50.0%

1.0%

49.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-07-24
2024-08-01

2024-08-07
2024-08-07 18:51

2024-07-28 12:00

Marquette LV [6]

49.0%

6.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-07-24
2024-08-01

2024-08-07
2024-08-07 18:48

2024-07-28 12:00

Marquette RV w/7P [6]

45.0%

12.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-07-24
2024-08-01

2024-08-07
2024-08-07 18:45

2024-07-28 12:00

Marquette RV w/Lean [6]

49.0%

1.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-07-24
2024-08-01

2024-08-07
2024-08-07 18:44

2024-07-28 12:00

Marquette RV [6]

47.0%

9.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-07-24
2024-08-01

2024-08-07
2024-08-07 18:41

2024-07-26 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-07-23
2024-07-29

2024-08-01
2024-08-01 15:11

2024-07-26 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-07-24
2024-07-28

2024-07-30
2024-07-30 22:03

2024-07-26 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

44.0%

11.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-07-24
2024-07-28

2024-07-30
2024-07-30 22:01

2024-07-23 12:00

Beacon/Shaw [2]

49.0%

1.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-07-22
2024-07-24

2024-07-26
2024-07-27 01:23

2024-07-23 12:00

Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-07-22
2024-07-24

2024-07-26
2024-07-27 01:20

2024-07-23 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

44.0%

12.0%

44.0%

TIED

2024-07-22
2024-07-24

2024-07-26
2024-07-26 14:46

2024-07-23 00:00

Emerson w/4P [3]

45.4%

9.7%

44.9%

Harris
by 0.5%

2024-07-22
2024-07-23

2024-07-25
2024-07-25 14:53

2024-07-23 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

50.6%

0.0%

49.4%

Harris
by 1.2%

2024-07-22
2024-07-23

2024-07-25
2024-07-25 14:51

2024-07-23 00:00

Emerson [3]

47.4%

5.3%

47.3%

Harris
by 0.1%

2024-07-22
2024-07-23

2024-07-25
2024-07-25 14:48

2024-07-15 00:00

Civiqs w/3P

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-07-13
2024-07-16

2024-07-19
2024-07-19 22:55

2024-07-11 00:00

PPP

48.0%

3.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-07-10
2024-07-11

2024-07-22
2024-07-24 18:13

2024-07-08 12:00

North Star

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-07-06
2024-07-10

2024-07-12
2024-07-12 17:37

2024-05-10 12:00

Morning Consult

41.0%

10.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-05-07
2024-05-13

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 21:10

2024-02-22 12:00

Emerson

43.6%

9.4%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.4%

2024-02-20
2024-02-24

2024-02-27
2024-02-28 03:53

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV [2]

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 18:34

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV [2]

46.0%

7.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 16:58

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

49.5%

1.7%

48.8%

DEM
by 0.6%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-17 06:24

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

46.5%

6.3%

47.2%

REP
by 0.8%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-24 18:34

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

52.8%

1.3%

45.9%

DEM
by 6.9%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:19

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

56.2%

1.5%

42.3%

DEM
by 13.9%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-06 05:22

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

49.7%

1.0%

49.3%

DEM
by 0.4%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:19

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

47.8%

4.6%

47.6%

DEM
by 0.2%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 11:16

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

48.8%

12.7%

38.5%

DEM
by 10.3%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-18 15:53

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

41.1%

22.1%

36.8%

DEM
by 4.4%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 07:09

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

51.4%

0.8%

47.8%

DEM
by 3.6%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 20:13

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

45.0%

0.8%

54.2%

REP
by 9.2%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 07:46

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

43.2%

8.9%

47.9%

REP
by 4.7%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:35

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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