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2024 Electoral College

Harris vs Trump - New Jersey [14 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-09-18 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-10-03 16:09 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Harris vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 New Jersey [14 EV] Poll Average

 

Harris Trump
 

 

2024 New Jersey [14 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Harris Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Harris Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-09-18 12:00

ActiVote

56.0%

0.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 12.0%

2024-09-04
2024-10-02

2024-10-03
2024-10-03 16:09

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

57.3%

1.3%

41.4%

DEM
by 15.9%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-16 16:07

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

55.0%

4.0%

41.0%

DEM
by 14.0%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 03:59

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

58.4%

1.0%

40.6%

DEM
by 17.8%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:48

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

57.3%

1.0%

41.7%

DEM
by 15.6%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:32

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

52.9%

0.8%

46.2%

DEM
by 6.7%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:54

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

56.1%

3.6%

40.3%

DEM
by 15.8%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:30

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

53.7%

10.4%

35.9%

DEM
by 17.9%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 17:06

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

43.0%

16.5%

40.6%

DEM
by 2.4%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:23

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

42.6%

1.2%

56.2%

REP
by 13.6%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:24

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

39.2%

0.7%

60.1%

REP
by 20.9%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:37

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

38.6%

9.5%

52.0%

REP
by 13.4%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 18:55

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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