2024 Electoral College

Harris vs Trump - Pennsylvania [19 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-09-29 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-10-03 15:59 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Harris vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 Pennsylvania [19 EV] Poll Average

 

Harris Trump
 

 

2024 Pennsylvania [19 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Harris Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Harris Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-09-29 00:00

OnMessage w/Lean [2]

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-09-28
2024-09-29

2024-10-03
2024-10-03 15:59

2024-09-29 00:00

OnMessage [2]

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-09-28
2024-09-29

2024-10-03
2024-10-03 15:51

2024-09-28 12:00

Patriot Polling

49.0%

1.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-27
2024-09-29

2024-09-30
2024-09-30 16:44

2024-09-28 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

49.3%

1.9%

48.8%

Harris
by 0.5%

2024-09-27
2024-09-28

2024-10-01
2024-10-02 01:07

2024-09-28 00:00

Emerson [2]

48.1%

3.8%

48.1%

TIED

2024-09-27
2024-09-28

2024-10-01
2024-10-02 01:02

2024-09-28 00:00

Trafalgar

45.3%

7.2%

47.5%

Trump
by 2.2%

2024-09-26
2024-09-29

2024-09-30
2024-09-30 16:40

2024-09-23 00:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

48.0%

1.4%

50.6%

Trump
by 2.6%

2024-09-20
2024-09-25

2024-09-29
2024-09-30 06:21

2024-09-23 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

48.1%

0.9%

51.0%

Trump
by 2.9%

2024-09-20
2024-09-25

2024-09-29
2024-09-30 06:19

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-09-22 12:00

BSG/GS [2]

50.0%

1.0%

49.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-10-02
2024-10-02 15:55

2024-09-22 12:00

BSG/GS w/3P [2]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-10-02
2024-10-02 15:51

2024-09-22 12:00

Beacon/Shaw RV [4]

50.0%

2.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-24

2024-09-27
2024-09-28 16:39

2024-09-22 12:00

Beacon/Shaw LV [4]

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-09-20
2024-09-24

2024-09-27
2024-09-28 16:36

2024-09-22 12:00

Beacon/Shaw RV w/5P [4]

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-24

2024-09-27
2024-09-28 16:33

2024-09-22 12:00

Beacon/Shaw LV w/5P [4]

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-24

2024-09-27
2024-09-28 16:29

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult LV [4]

51.0%

3.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 08:18

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]

51.0%

4.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 6.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 08:13

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult RV [4]

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 08:08

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]

50.0%

6.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 6.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 08:03

2024-09-21 00:00

Fabrizio Ward [2]

50.0%

3.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-17
2024-09-24

2024-10-01
2024-10-01 23:29

2024-09-21 00:00

Fabrizio Ward w/4P [2]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-17
2024-09-24

2024-10-01
2024-10-01 23:25

2024-09-21 00:00

Rasmussen w/Lean [2]

50.0%

1.0%

49.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-22

2024-09-24
2024-09-26 05:53

2024-09-21 00:00

Rasmussen [2]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-09-19
2024-09-22

2024-09-24
2024-09-26 05:43

2024-09-19 12:00

Susquehanna

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-09-16
2024-09-22

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 06:44

2024-09-19 12:00

RMG Research wo/Lean [2]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-18
2024-09-20

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 06:40

2024-09-19 12:00

RMG Research [2]

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-09-18
2024-09-20

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 06:36

2024-09-18 12:00

Remington w/4P

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-16
2024-09-20

2024-10-01
2024-10-01 22:41

2024-09-18 00:00

Muhlenberg w/Lean [2]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-09-16
2024-09-19

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 06:27

2024-09-18 00:00

Muhlenberg [2]

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-09-16
2024-09-19

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 06:20

2024-09-18 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-09-16
2024-09-19

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 17:57

2024-09-17 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

49.6%

1.1%

49.3%

Harris
by 0.3%

2024-09-15
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 19:11

2024-09-17 00:00

Emerson [2]

47.2%

4.7%

48.1%

Trump
by 0.9%

2024-09-15
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 19:07

2024-09-15 12:00

YouGov w/4P

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-11
2024-09-19

2024-09-26
2024-09-26 15:59

2024-09-15 12:00

MassINC [3]

52.0%

1.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-09-12
2024-09-18

2024-09-20
2024-09-21 04:05

2024-09-15 12:00

MassINC w/Lean w/4P [3]

50.0%

4.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-09-12
2024-09-18

2024-09-20
2024-09-21 04:02

2024-09-15 12:00

MassINC Initial w/4P [3]

50.0%

4.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-09-12
2024-09-18

2024-09-20
2024-09-21 03:57

2024-09-15 00:00

Marist RV [2]

49.0%

3.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-12
2024-09-17

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 19:53

2024-09-15 00:00

Marist LV [2]

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-09-12
2024-09-17

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 19:48

2024-09-15 00:00

Insider Advantage

48.0%

2.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-14
2024-09-15

2024-09-17
2024-09-17 16:48

2024-09-14 12:00

Washington Post RV [4]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-12
2024-09-16

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 20:25

2024-09-14 12:00

Washington Post LV [4]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-09-12
2024-09-16

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 20:22

2024-09-14 12:00

Washington Post RV w/4P [4]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-12
2024-09-16

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 20:07

2024-09-14 12:00

Washington Post LV w/4P [4]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-12
2024-09-16

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 20:05

2024-09-14 12:00

Quinnipiac [2]

51.0%

3.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-09-12
2024-09-16

2024-09-18
2024-09-18 18:12

2024-09-14 12:00

Quinnipiac w/4P [2]

51.0%

4.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 6.0%

2024-09-12
2024-09-16

2024-09-18
2024-09-18 18:08

2024-09-14 00:00

Morning Consult

48.7%

4.6%

46.7%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-09
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-20 04:15

2024-09-14 00:00

Siena LV w/6P [5]

49.0%

6.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-09-11
2024-09-16

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 20:47

2024-09-14 00:00

Siena LV [5]

50.0%

4.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-09-11
2024-09-16

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 20:44

2024-09-14 00:00

Siena RV wo/Lean w/6P [5]

48.0%

7.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-11
2024-09-16

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 20:42

2024-09-14 00:00

Siena RV Total w/6P [5]

48.0%

7.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-11
2024-09-16

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 20:40

2024-09-14 00:00

Siena RV [5]

50.0%

4.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-09-11
2024-09-16

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 20:39

2024-09-13 12:00

ActiVote

51.6%

0.0%

48.4%

Harris
by 3.2%

2024-09-01
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-26 15:52

2024-09-13 00:00

Suffolk w/4P

48.6%

5.8%

45.6%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-11
2024-09-14

2024-09-16
2024-09-17 16:16

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData A w/4P [5]

50.2%

2.7%

47.1%

Harris
by 3.1%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 05:22

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData RV w/4P [5]

50.9%

2.5%

46.6%

Harris
by 4.3%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 05:21

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV [5]

50.8%

0.0%

49.2%

Harris
by 1.6%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 05:18

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV w/Squeeze w/4P [5]

49.9%

2.1%

48.0%

Harris
by 1.9%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 05:17

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV w/4P [5]

48.6%

5.4%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.6%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 05:14

2024-09-10 00:00

Franklin & Marshall [2]

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-04
2024-09-15

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 20:02

2024-09-10 00:00

Franklin & Marshall w/4P [2]

49.0%

6.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-09-04
2024-09-15

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 20:00

2024-09-08 00:00

Redfield & Wilton

45.0%

10.0%

45.0%

TIED

2024-09-06
2024-09-09

2024-09-10
2024-09-11 01:20

2024-09-05 12:00

co/efficient

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-04
2024-09-06

2024-09-10
2024-09-11 01:35

2024-09-05 00:00

YouGov

50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

TIED

2024-09-03
2024-09-06

2024-09-08
2024-09-08 18:26

2024-09-04 00:00

Morning Consult

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-08-30
2024-09-08

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 06:52

2024-09-02 12:00

Patriot Polling

47.9%

3.1%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.1%

2024-09-01
2024-09-03

2024-09-05
2024-09-06 05:39

2024-08-29 12:00

Trafalgar

44.9%

8.1%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.1%

2024-08-28
2024-08-30

2024-08-31
2024-08-31 19:38

2024-08-29 00:00

YouGov

46.0%

9.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-08-23
2024-09-03

2024-09-05
2024-09-06 06:02

2024-08-28 12:00

Wick [2]

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-08-27
2024-08-29

2024-08-30
2024-08-30 23:28

2024-08-28 12:00

Wick w/4P [2]

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-27
2024-08-29

2024-08-30
2024-08-30 23:24

2024-08-27 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

46.0%

9.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-08-25
2024-08-28

2024-08-30
2024-08-30 18:10

2024-08-27 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

49.4%

1.2%

49.4%

TIED

2024-08-25
2024-08-28

2024-08-29
2024-08-29 16:15

2024-08-27 00:00

Emerson [2]

48.3%

3.5%

48.2%

Harris
by 0.1%

2024-08-25
2024-08-28

2024-08-29
2024-08-29 16:11

2024-08-26 12:00

SSRS w/4P

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-08-23
2024-08-29

2024-09-04
2024-09-04 21:43

2024-08-25 00:00

Z to A w/3P

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-09-05
2024-09-05 17:46

2024-08-25 00:00

Morning Consult LV [4]

51.0%

1.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 05:36

2024-08-25 00:00

Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]

51.0%

3.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 05:32

2024-08-25 00:00

Morning Consult RV [4]

51.0%

2.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 05:27

2024-08-25 00:00

Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]

51.0%

4.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 6.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 05:19

2024-08-23 12:00

SoCal LV [2]

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-23

2024-08-26
2024-08-26 15:05

2024-08-23 12:00

SoCal RV [2]

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-08-23
2024-08-23

2024-08-26
2024-08-26 14:57

2024-08-20 12:00

Fabrizio Ward [2]

46.0%

7.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-19
2024-08-21

2024-08-29
2024-08-29 16:51

2024-08-20 12:00

Fabrizio Ward w/6P [2]

43.0%

14.0%

43.0%

TIED

2024-08-19
2024-08-21

2024-08-29
2024-08-29 16:47

2024-08-19 12:00

YouGov LV w/6P [4]

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-08-15
2024-08-23

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 04:55

2024-08-19 12:00

YouGov All w/6P [4]

43.0%

16.0%

41.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-08-15
2024-08-23

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 04:53

2024-08-19 12:00

YouGov LV [4]

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-08-15
2024-08-23

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 04:51

2024-08-19 12:00

YouGov All [4]

43.0%

14.5%

42.5%

Harris
by 0.5%

2024-08-15
2024-08-23

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 04:48

2024-08-19 00:00

InsiderAdvantage

46.0%

7.4%

46.6%

Trump
by 0.6%

2024-08-18
2024-08-19

2024-08-20
2024-08-20 01:37

2024-08-17 12:00

Spry w/4P [2]

46.3%

8.7%

45.0%

Harris
by 1.3%

2024-08-14
2024-08-20

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 06:22

2024-08-17 12:00

Spry [2]

48.2%

4.6%

47.2%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-08-14
2024-08-20

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 06:19

2024-08-15 12:00

Rasmussen w/6P [2]

46.0%

9.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-08-13
2024-08-17

2024-08-27
2024-09-04 02:47

2024-08-15 12:00

Rasmussen [2]

46.0%

7.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-13
2024-08-17

2024-08-27
2024-09-04 02:45

2024-08-15 00:00

Cygnal Definitely w/5P [4]

39.0%

21.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-14
2024-08-15

2024-08-16
2024-08-17 05:45

2024-08-15 00:00

Cygnal Total w/5P [4]

43.4%

12.3%

44.3%

Trump
by 0.9%

2024-08-14
2024-08-15

2024-08-16
2024-08-17 05:39

2024-08-15 00:00

Cygnal Definitely [4]

45.0%

14.0%

41.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-14
2024-08-15

2024-08-16
2024-08-17 05:33

2024-08-15 00:00

Cygnal Total [4]

47.8%

5.1%

47.1%

Harris
by 0.7%

2024-08-14
2024-08-15

2024-08-16
2024-08-17 05:24

2024-08-14 00:00

ActiVote

51.1%

0.0%

48.9%

Harris
by 2.2%

2024-08-05
2024-08-22

2024-08-22
2024-08-23 01:44

2024-08-14 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

46.0%

10.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-08-12
2024-08-15

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 19:24

2024-08-14 00:00

Emerson w/6P [3]

46.8%

5.8%

47.4%

Trump
by 0.6%

2024-08-13
2024-08-14

2024-08-16
2024-08-16 17:15

2024-08-14 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

49.3%

0.0%

50.7%

Trump
by 1.4%

2024-08-13
2024-08-14

2024-08-16
2024-08-16 17:06

2024-08-14 00:00

Emerson [3]

48.3%

2.6%

49.1%

Trump
by 0.8%

2024-08-13
2024-08-14

2024-08-16
2024-08-16 17:02

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata LV [4]

50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

TIED

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 22:12

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata AV w/5P [4]

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 22:09

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata RV w/5P [4]

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 22:03

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata LV w/5P [4]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 22:00

2024-08-10 12:00

Quinnipiac [2]

50.0%

3.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-08-08
2024-08-12

2024-08-14
2024-08-14 18:39

2024-08-10 12:00

Quinnipiac w/5P [2]

48.0%

7.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-08-08
2024-08-12

2024-08-14
2024-08-14 18:34

2024-08-10 00:00

Bullfinch w/5P [2]

45.0%

14.0%

41.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-08
2024-08-11

2024-08-12
2024-08-12 18:51

2024-08-10 00:00

Bullfinch [2]

49.0%

6.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-08
2024-08-11

2024-08-12
2024-08-12 18:44

2024-08-08 00:00

Siena LV w/6P [4]

46.0%

10.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-09

2024-08-10
2024-08-10 14:37

2024-08-08 00:00

Siena LV [4]

50.0%

4.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-09

2024-08-10
2024-08-10 14:29

2024-08-08 00:00

Siena RV w/6P [4]

45.0%

12.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-09

2024-08-10
2024-08-10 14:26

2024-08-08 00:00

Siena RV [4]

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-09

2024-08-10
2024-08-10 14:22

2024-08-07 12:00

Trafalgar

44.0%

10.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-08

2024-08-09
2024-08-10 01:55

2024-08-04 12:00

Navigator [3]

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-31
2024-08-08

2024-08-20
2024-08-20 20:35

2024-08-04 12:00

Navigator w/Lean w/6P [3]

44.0%

10.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-31
2024-08-08

2024-08-20
2024-08-20 20:34

2024-08-04 12:00

Navigator wo/Lean w/6P [3]

43.0%

12.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-31
2024-08-08

2024-08-20
2024-08-20 20:32

2024-08-02 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

44.0%

10.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-31
2024-08-03

2024-08-06
2024-08-06 17:00

2024-08-01 00:00

Franklin & Marshall w/5P

46.0%

11.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-07-21
2024-08-11

2024-08-15
2024-08-15 16:14

2024-07-30 12:00

Fabrizio Lee w/3P [2]

45.0%

10.0%

45.0%

TIED

2024-07-28
2024-08-01

2024-08-05
2024-08-05 16:06

2024-07-30 12:00

Fabrizio Lee [2]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-07-28
2024-08-01

2024-08-05
2024-08-05 16:01

2024-07-30 00:00

BSG/GS [2]

49.0%

3.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-07-26
2024-08-02

2024-08-14
2024-08-14 12:27

2024-07-30 00:00

BSG/GS w/3P [2]

48.0%

9.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-07-26
2024-08-02

2024-08-14
2024-08-14 12:25

2024-07-30 00:00

PPP

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-07-29
2024-07-30

2024-07-31
2024-07-31 16:24

2024-07-28 12:00

GQR w/3P

50.0%

4.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-07-26
2024-07-30

2024-08-05
2024-08-05 18:22

2024-07-28 00:00

Quantus

46.4%

6.0%

47.6%

Trump
by 1.2%

2024-07-27
2024-07-28

2024-07-31
2024-07-31 18:38

2024-07-26 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies

48.0%

7.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-07-23
2024-07-29

2024-08-01
2024-08-01 15:06

2024-07-26 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

46.0%

4.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-07-24
2024-07-28

2024-07-30
2024-07-30 21:56

2024-07-26 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

44.0%

10.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-24
2024-07-28

2024-07-30
2024-07-30 21:51

2024-07-25 12:00

Susquehanna w/4P

47.0%

10.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-07-22
2024-07-28

2024-07-30
2024-07-30 17:16

2024-07-24 12:00

Bullfinch w/5P [3]

44.0%

12.0%

44.0%

TIED

2024-07-23
2024-07-25

2024-07-26
2024-07-26 20:51

2024-07-24 12:00

Bullfinch w/Lean [3]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-07-23
2024-07-25

2024-07-26
2024-07-26 20:44

2024-07-24 12:00

Bullfinch [3]

47.0%

7.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-07-23
2024-07-25

2024-07-26
2024-07-26 20:41

2024-07-23 12:00

Beacon/Shaw [2]

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-07-22
2024-07-24

2024-07-26
2024-07-27 01:46

2024-07-23 12:00

Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]

45.0%

12.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-07-22
2024-07-24

2024-07-26
2024-07-27 01:42

2024-07-23 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

42.0%

12.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-07-22
2024-07-24

2024-07-26
2024-07-26 14:42

2024-07-23 00:00

Emerson w/6P [3]

44.3%

9.6%

46.1%

Trump
by 1.8%

2024-07-22
2024-07-23

2024-07-25
2024-07-25 14:45

2024-07-23 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

48.9%

0.0%

51.1%

Trump
by 2.2%

2024-07-22
2024-07-23

2024-07-25
2024-07-25 14:43

2024-07-23 00:00

Emerson [3]

45.7%

6.6%

47.7%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-22
2024-07-23

2024-07-25
2024-07-25 14:41

2024-07-22 00:00

North Star

45.0%

8.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-20
2024-07-23

2024-07-24
2024-07-25 04:41

2024-07-21 00:00

SoCal

46.0%

4.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-07-20
2024-07-21

2024-07-21
2024-07-25 03:58

2024-07-18 00:00

PPP w/4P

43.0%

12.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-17
2024-07-18

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 16:18

2024-07-16 00:00

InsiderAdvantage

40.0%

13.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-07-15
2024-07-16

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 08:07

2024-07-15 00:00

Civiqs w/3P

44.0%

10.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-13
2024-07-16

2024-07-19
2024-07-19 22:42

2024-07-12 00:00

PPP

45.0%

4.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-07-11
2024-07-12

2024-07-22
2024-07-24 17:50

2024-07-10 12:00

Siena LV w/6P [4]

42.0%

15.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-07-09
2024-07-11

2024-07-15
2024-07-15 17:29

2024-07-10 12:00

Siena LV [4]

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-07-09
2024-07-11

2024-07-15
2024-07-15 17:28

2024-07-10 12:00

Siena RV w/6P [4]

40.0%

18.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-09
2024-07-11

2024-07-15
2024-07-15 17:26

2024-07-10 12:00

Siena RV [4]

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-09
2024-07-11

2024-07-15
2024-07-15 17:24

2024-05-10 12:00

Morning Consult

43.0%

7.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-05-08
2024-05-12

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 20:54

2024-02-15 12:00

Emerson

40.0%

11.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-02-14
2024-02-16

2024-02-20
2024-02-21 02:45

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV [2]

44.0%

8.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 18:32

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV [2]

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 16:54

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

50.0%

1.2%

48.8%

DEM
by 1.2%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-17 05:34

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

47.5%

4.4%

48.2%

REP
by 0.7%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 04:57

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

52.0%

1.4%

46.6%

DEM
by 5.4%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:08

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

54.5%

1.3%

44.2%

DEM
by 10.3%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-05 08:39

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

50.9%

0.7%

48.4%

DEM
by 2.5%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:04

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

50.6%

3.0%

46.4%

DEM
by 4.2%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:47

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

49.2%

10.9%

40.0%

DEM
by 9.2%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 19:43

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

45.2%

18.7%

36.1%

DEM
by 9.0%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:41

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

48.4%

0.9%

50.7%

REP
by 2.3%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:47

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

46.0%

0.7%

53.3%

REP
by 7.4%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:55

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

42.5%

7.9%

49.6%

REP
by 7.1%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:10

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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