Switch to Harris vs Trump National Summary
|
Polls Used in Average
| Middate/Time | Pollster | Harris | <> | Trump | Margin | Start/End | Released/Entered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024-09-29 00:00 | 47.0% | 6.0% | 47.0% | TIED | 2024-09-28 | 2024-10-03 | |
2024-09-29 00:00 | 46.0% | 8.0% | 46.0% | TIED | 2024-09-28 | 2024-10-03 | |
2024-09-28 12:00 | 49.0% | 1.0% | 50.0% | Trump | 2024-09-27 | 2024-09-30 | |
2024-09-28 00:00 | 49.3% | 1.9% | 48.8% | Harris | 2024-09-27 | 2024-10-01 | |
2024-09-28 00:00 | 48.1% | 3.8% | 48.1% | TIED | 2024-09-27 | 2024-10-01 | |
2024-09-28 00:00 | 45.3% | 7.2% | 47.5% | Trump | 2024-09-26 | 2024-09-30 | |
2024-09-23 00:00 | 48.0% | 1.4% | 50.6% | Trump | 2024-09-20 | 2024-09-29 | |
2024-09-23 00:00 | 48.1% | 0.9% | 51.0% | Trump | 2024-09-20 | 2024-09-29 |
Older Polls
| Middate/Time | Pollster | Harris | <> | Trump | Margin | Start/End | Released/Entered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024-09-22 12:00 | 50.0% | 1.0% | 49.0% | Harris | 2024-09-19 | 2024-10-02 | |
2024-09-22 12:00 | 49.0% | 4.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-09-19 | 2024-10-02 | |
2024-09-22 12:00 | 50.0% | 2.0% | 48.0% | Harris | 2024-09-20 | 2024-09-27 | |
2024-09-22 12:00 | 49.0% | 2.0% | 49.0% | TIED | 2024-09-20 | 2024-09-27 | |
2024-09-22 12:00 | 48.0% | 6.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-09-20 | 2024-09-27 | |
2024-09-22 12:00 | 47.0% | 5.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-09-20 | 2024-09-27 | |
2024-09-22 12:00 | 51.0% | 3.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-09-19 | 2024-09-26 | |
2024-09-22 12:00 | 51.0% | 4.0% | 45.0% | Harris | 2024-09-19 | 2024-09-26 | |
2024-09-22 12:00 | 49.0% | 5.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-09-19 | 2024-09-26 | |
2024-09-22 12:00 | 50.0% | 6.0% | 44.0% | Harris | 2024-09-19 | 2024-09-26 | |
2024-09-21 00:00 | 50.0% | 3.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-09-17 | 2024-10-01 | |
2024-09-21 00:00 | 49.0% | 4.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-09-17 | 2024-10-01 | |
2024-09-21 00:00 | 50.0% | 1.0% | 49.0% | Harris | 2024-09-19 | 2024-09-24 | |
2024-09-21 00:00 | 48.0% | 4.0% | 48.0% | TIED | 2024-09-19 | 2024-09-24 | |
2024-09-19 12:00 | 46.0% | 8.0% | 46.0% | TIED | 2024-09-16 | 2024-09-25 | |
2024-09-19 12:00 | 48.0% | 5.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-09-18 | 2024-09-25 | |
2024-09-19 12:00 | 49.0% | 2.0% | 49.0% | TIED | 2024-09-18 | 2024-09-25 | |
2024-09-18 12:00 | 47.0% | 5.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-09-16 | 2024-10-01 | |
2024-09-18 00:00 | 48.0% | 4.0% | 48.0% | TIED | 2024-09-16 | 2024-09-25 | |
2024-09-18 00:00 | 47.0% | 6.0% | 47.0% | TIED | 2024-09-16 | 2024-09-25 | |
2024-09-18 00:00 | 47.0% | 6.0% | 47.0% | TIED | 2024-09-16 | 2024-09-23 | |
2024-09-17 00:00 | 49.6% | 1.1% | 49.3% | Harris | 2024-09-15 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-17 00:00 | 47.2% | 4.7% | 48.1% | Trump | 2024-09-15 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-15 12:00 | 48.0% | 6.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-09-11 | 2024-09-26 | |
2024-09-15 12:00 | 52.0% | 1.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-09-12 | 2024-09-20 | |
2024-09-15 12:00 | 50.0% | 4.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-09-12 | 2024-09-20 | |
2024-09-15 12:00 | 50.0% | 4.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-09-12 | 2024-09-20 | |
2024-09-15 00:00 | 49.0% | 3.0% | 48.0% | Harris | 2024-09-12 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-15 00:00 | 49.0% | 2.0% | 49.0% | TIED | 2024-09-12 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-15 00:00 | 48.0% | 2.0% | 50.0% | Trump | 2024-09-14 | 2024-09-17 | |
2024-09-14 12:00 | 48.0% | 5.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-09-12 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-14 12:00 | 48.0% | 4.0% | 48.0% | TIED | 2024-09-12 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-14 12:00 | 48.0% | 5.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-09-12 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-14 12:00 | 48.0% | 5.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-09-12 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-14 12:00 | 51.0% | 3.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-09-12 | 2024-09-18 | |
2024-09-14 12:00 | 51.0% | 4.0% | 45.0% | Harris | 2024-09-12 | 2024-09-18 | |
2024-09-14 00:00 | 48.7% | 4.6% | 46.7% | Harris | 2024-09-09 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-14 00:00 | 49.0% | 6.0% | 45.0% | Harris | 2024-09-11 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-14 00:00 | 50.0% | 4.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-09-11 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-14 00:00 | 48.0% | 7.0% | 45.0% | Harris | 2024-09-11 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-14 00:00 | 48.0% | 7.0% | 45.0% | Harris | 2024-09-11 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-14 00:00 | 50.0% | 4.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-09-11 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-13 12:00 | 51.6% | 0.0% | 48.4% | Harris | 2024-09-01 | 2024-09-26 | |
2024-09-13 00:00 | 48.6% | 5.8% | 45.6% | Harris | 2024-09-11 | 2024-09-16 | |
2024-09-10 00:00 | 50.2% | 2.7% | 47.1% | Harris | 2024-09-03 | 2024-09-25 | |
2024-09-10 00:00 | 50.9% | 2.5% | 46.6% | Harris | 2024-09-03 | 2024-09-25 | |
2024-09-10 00:00 | 50.8% | 0.0% | 49.2% | Harris | 2024-09-03 | 2024-09-25 | |
2024-09-10 00:00 | 49.9% | 2.1% | 48.0% | Harris | 2024-09-03 | 2024-09-25 | |
2024-09-10 00:00 | 48.6% | 5.4% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-09-03 | 2024-09-25 | |
2024-09-10 00:00 | 49.0% | 5.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-09-04 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-10 00:00 | 49.0% | 6.0% | 45.0% | Harris | 2024-09-04 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-08 00:00 | 45.0% | 10.0% | 45.0% | TIED | 2024-09-06 | 2024-09-10 | |
2024-09-05 12:00 | 46.0% | 6.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-09-04 | 2024-09-10 | |
2024-09-05 00:00 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | TIED | 2024-09-03 | 2024-09-08 | |
2024-09-04 00:00 | 49.0% | 5.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-08-30 | 2024-09-09 | |
2024-09-02 12:00 | 47.9% | 3.1% | 49.0% | Trump | 2024-09-01 | 2024-09-05 | |
2024-08-29 12:00 | 44.9% | 8.1% | 47.0% | Trump | 2024-08-28 | 2024-08-31 | |
2024-08-29 00:00 | 46.0% | 9.0% | 45.0% | Harris | 2024-08-23 | 2024-09-05 | |
2024-08-28 12:00 | 49.0% | 2.0% | 49.0% | TIED | 2024-08-27 | 2024-08-30 | |
2024-08-28 12:00 | 47.0% | 5.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-08-27 | 2024-08-30 | |
2024-08-27 00:00 | 46.0% | 9.0% | 45.0% | Harris | 2024-08-25 | 2024-08-30 | |
2024-08-27 00:00 | 49.4% | 1.2% | 49.4% | TIED | 2024-08-25 | 2024-08-29 | |
2024-08-27 00:00 | 48.3% | 3.5% | 48.2% | Harris | 2024-08-25 | 2024-08-29 | |
2024-08-26 12:00 | 47.0% | 6.0% | 47.0% | TIED | 2024-08-23 | 2024-09-04 | |
2024-08-25 00:00 | 46.0% | 8.0% | 46.0% | TIED | 2024-08-23 | 2024-09-05 | |
2024-08-25 00:00 | 51.0% | 1.0% | 48.0% | Harris | 2024-08-23 | 2024-08-29 | |
2024-08-25 00:00 | 51.0% | 3.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-08-23 | 2024-08-29 | |
2024-08-25 00:00 | 51.0% | 2.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-08-23 | 2024-08-29 | |
2024-08-25 00:00 | 51.0% | 4.0% | 45.0% | Harris | 2024-08-23 | 2024-08-29 | |
2024-08-23 12:00 | 47.0% | 5.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-08-23 | 2024-08-26 | |
2024-08-23 12:00 | 47.0% | 6.0% | 47.0% | TIED | 2024-08-23 | 2024-08-26 | |
2024-08-20 12:00 | 46.0% | 7.0% | 47.0% | Trump | 2024-08-19 | 2024-08-29 | |
2024-08-20 12:00 | 43.0% | 14.0% | 43.0% | TIED | 2024-08-19 | 2024-08-29 | |
2024-08-19 12:00 | 48.0% | 6.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-08-15 | 2024-09-09 | |
2024-08-19 12:00 | 43.0% | 16.0% | 41.0% | Harris | 2024-08-15 | 2024-09-09 | |
2024-08-19 12:00 | 47.0% | 6.0% | 47.0% | TIED | 2024-08-15 | 2024-09-09 | |
2024-08-19 12:00 | 43.0% | 14.5% | 42.5% | Harris | 2024-08-15 | 2024-09-09 | |
2024-08-19 00:00 | 46.0% | 7.4% | 46.6% | Trump | 2024-08-18 | 2024-08-20 | |
2024-08-17 12:00 | 46.3% | 8.7% | 45.0% | Harris | 2024-08-14 | 2024-08-29 | |
2024-08-17 12:00 | 48.2% | 4.6% | 47.2% | Harris | 2024-08-14 | 2024-08-29 | |
2024-08-15 12:00 | 46.0% | 9.0% | 45.0% | Harris | 2024-08-13 | 2024-08-27 | |
2024-08-15 12:00 | 46.0% | 7.0% | 47.0% | Trump | 2024-08-13 | 2024-08-27 | |
2024-08-15 00:00 | 39.0% | 21.0% | 40.0% | Trump | 2024-08-14 | 2024-08-16 | |
2024-08-15 00:00 | 43.4% | 12.3% | 44.3% | Trump | 2024-08-14 | 2024-08-16 | |
2024-08-15 00:00 | 45.0% | 14.0% | 41.0% | Harris | 2024-08-14 | 2024-08-16 | |
2024-08-15 00:00 | 47.8% | 5.1% | 47.1% | Harris | 2024-08-14 | 2024-08-16 | |
2024-08-14 00:00 | 51.1% | 0.0% | 48.9% | Harris | 2024-08-05 | 2024-08-22 | |
2024-08-14 00:00 | 46.0% | 10.0% | 44.0% | Harris | 2024-08-12 | 2024-08-19 | |
2024-08-14 00:00 | 46.8% | 5.8% | 47.4% | Trump | 2024-08-13 | 2024-08-16 | |
2024-08-14 00:00 | 49.3% | 0.0% | 50.7% | Trump | 2024-08-13 | 2024-08-16 | |
2024-08-14 00:00 | 48.3% | 2.6% | 49.1% | Trump | 2024-08-13 | 2024-08-16 | |
2024-08-11 12:00 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | TIED | 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-19 | |
2024-08-11 12:00 | 47.0% | 6.0% | 47.0% | TIED | 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-19 | |
2024-08-11 12:00 | 49.0% | 5.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-19 | |
2024-08-11 12:00 | 48.0% | 5.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-19 | |
2024-08-10 12:00 | 50.0% | 3.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-08-08 | 2024-08-14 | |
2024-08-10 12:00 | 48.0% | 7.0% | 45.0% | Harris | 2024-08-08 | 2024-08-14 | |
2024-08-10 00:00 | 45.0% | 14.0% | 41.0% | Harris | 2024-08-08 | 2024-08-12 | |
2024-08-10 00:00 | 49.0% | 6.0% | 45.0% | Harris | 2024-08-08 | 2024-08-12 | |
2024-08-08 00:00 | 46.0% | 10.0% | 44.0% | Harris | 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-10 | |
2024-08-08 00:00 | 50.0% | 4.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-10 | |
2024-08-08 00:00 | 45.0% | 12.0% | 43.0% | Harris | 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-10 | |
2024-08-08 00:00 | 49.0% | 5.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-10 | |
2024-08-07 12:00 | 44.0% | 10.0% | 46.0% | Trump | 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-09 | |
2024-08-04 12:00 | 46.0% | 6.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-07-31 | 2024-08-20 | |
2024-08-04 12:00 | 44.0% | 10.0% | 46.0% | Trump | 2024-07-31 | 2024-08-20 | |
2024-08-04 12:00 | 43.0% | 12.0% | 45.0% | Trump | 2024-07-31 | 2024-08-20 | |
2024-08-02 00:00 | 44.0% | 10.0% | 46.0% | Trump | 2024-07-31 | 2024-08-06 | |
2024-08-01 00:00 | 46.0% | 11.0% | 43.0% | Harris | 2024-07-21 | 2024-08-15 | |
2024-07-30 12:00 | 45.0% | 10.0% | 45.0% | TIED | 2024-07-28 | 2024-08-05 | |
2024-07-30 12:00 | 48.0% | 4.0% | 48.0% | TIED | 2024-07-28 | 2024-08-05 | |
2024-07-30 00:00 | 49.0% | 3.0% | 48.0% | Harris | 2024-07-26 | 2024-08-14 | |
2024-07-30 00:00 | 48.0% | 9.0% | 43.0% | Harris | 2024-07-26 | 2024-08-14 | |
2024-07-30 00:00 | 47.0% | 5.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-07-29 | 2024-07-31 | |
2024-07-28 12:00 | 50.0% | 4.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-07-26 | 2024-08-05 | |
2024-07-28 00:00 | 46.4% | 6.0% | 47.6% | Trump | 2024-07-27 | 2024-07-31 | |
2024-07-26 12:00 | 48.0% | 7.0% | 45.0% | Harris | 2024-07-23 | 2024-08-01 | |
2024-07-26 12:00 | 46.0% | 4.0% | 50.0% | Trump | 2024-07-24 | 2024-07-30 | |
2024-07-26 12:00 | 44.0% | 10.0% | 46.0% | Trump | 2024-07-24 | 2024-07-30 | |
2024-07-25 12:00 | 47.0% | 10.0% | 43.0% | Harris | 2024-07-22 | 2024-07-30 | |
2024-07-24 12:00 | 44.0% | 12.0% | 44.0% | TIED | 2024-07-23 | 2024-07-26 | |
2024-07-24 12:00 | 48.0% | 5.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-07-23 | 2024-07-26 | |
2024-07-24 12:00 | 47.0% | 7.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-07-23 | 2024-07-26 | |
2024-07-23 12:00 | 49.0% | 2.0% | 49.0% | TIED | 2024-07-22 | 2024-07-26 | |
2024-07-23 12:00 | 45.0% | 12.0% | 43.0% | Harris | 2024-07-22 | 2024-07-26 | |
2024-07-23 12:00 | 42.0% | 12.0% | 46.0% | Trump | 2024-07-22 | 2024-07-26 | |
2024-07-23 00:00 | 44.3% | 9.6% | 46.1% | Trump | 2024-07-22 | 2024-07-25 | |
2024-07-23 00:00 | 48.9% | 0.0% | 51.1% | Trump | 2024-07-22 | 2024-07-25 | |
2024-07-23 00:00 | 45.7% | 6.6% | 47.7% | Trump | 2024-07-22 | 2024-07-25 | |
2024-07-22 00:00 | 45.0% | 8.0% | 47.0% | Trump | 2024-07-20 | 2024-07-24 | |
2024-07-21 00:00 | 46.0% | 4.0% | 50.0% | Trump | 2024-07-20 | 2024-07-21 | |
2024-07-18 00:00 | 43.0% | 12.0% | 45.0% | Trump | 2024-07-17 | 2024-07-18 | |
2024-07-16 00:00 | 40.0% | 13.0% | 47.0% | Trump | 2024-07-15 | 2024-07-18 | |
2024-07-15 00:00 | 44.0% | 10.0% | 46.0% | Trump | 2024-07-13 | 2024-07-19 | |
2024-07-12 00:00 | 45.0% | 4.0% | 51.0% | Trump | 2024-07-11 | 2024-07-22 | |
2024-07-10 12:00 | 42.0% | 15.0% | 43.0% | Trump | 2024-07-09 | 2024-07-15 | |
2024-07-10 12:00 | 47.0% | 5.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-07-09 | 2024-07-15 | |
2024-07-10 12:00 | 40.0% | 18.0% | 42.0% | Trump | 2024-07-09 | 2024-07-15 | |
2024-07-10 12:00 | 46.0% | 6.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-07-09 | 2024-07-15 | |
2024-05-10 12:00 | 43.0% | 7.0% | 50.0% | Trump | 2024-05-08 | 2024-05-22 | |
2024-02-15 12:00 | 40.0% | 11.0% | 49.0% | Trump | 2024-02-14 | 2024-02-20 | |
2023-10-28 12:00 | 44.0% | 8.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2023-10-22 | 2023-11-05 | |
2023-10-28 12:00 | 44.0% | 9.0% | 47.0% | Trump | 2023-10-22 | 2023-11-05 | |
2020-11-03 12:00 | 50.0% | 1.2% | 48.8% | DEM | 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-03 | |
2016-11-08 12:00 | 47.5% | 4.4% | 48.2% | REP | 2016-11-08 | 2016-11-08 | |
2012-11-06 12:00 | 52.0% | 1.4% | 46.6% | DEM | 2012-11-06 | 2012-11-06 | |
2008-11-04 12:00 | 54.5% | 1.3% | 44.2% | DEM | 2008-11-04 | 2008-11-04 | |
2004-11-02 12:00 | 50.9% | 0.7% | 48.4% | DEM | 2004-11-02 | 2004-11-02 | |
2000-11-07 12:00 | 50.6% | 3.0% | 46.4% | DEM | 2000-11-07 | 2000-11-07 | |
1996-11-05 12:00 | 49.2% | 10.9% | 40.0% | DEM | 1996-11-05 | 1996-11-05 | |
1992-11-03 12:00 | 45.2% | 18.7% | 36.1% | DEM | 1992-11-03 | 1992-11-03 | |
1988-11-08 12:00 | 48.4% | 0.9% | 50.7% | REP | 1988-11-08 | 1988-11-08 | |
1984-11-06 12:00 | 46.0% | 0.7% | 53.3% | REP | 1984-11-06 | 1984-11-06 | |
1980-11-04 12:00 | 42.5% | 7.9% | 49.6% | REP | 1980-11-04 | 1980-11-04 |
Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".
For more information, read the FAQ.
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