Switch to Harris vs Trump National Summary
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Polls Used in Average
| Middate/Time | Pollster | Harris | <> | Trump | Margin | Start/End | Released/Entered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024-09-30 00:00 | 45.0% | 8.0% | 47.0% | Trump | 2024-09-27 | 2024-10-07 | |
2024-09-30 00:00 | 49.0% | 1.0% | 50.0% | Trump | 2024-09-29 | 2024-10-01 | |
2024-09-28 00:00 | 49.1% | 1.0% | 49.9% | Trump | 2024-09-27 | 2024-10-01 | |
2024-09-28 00:00 | 48.0% | 3.1% | 48.9% | Trump | 2024-09-27 | 2024-10-01 | |
2024-09-27 12:00 | 48.0% | 3.0% | 49.0% | Trump | 2024-09-25 | 2024-10-01 | |
2024-09-27 12:00 | 47.0% | 4.0% | 49.0% | Trump | 2024-09-25 | 2024-10-01 | |
2024-09-27 12:00 | 47.0% | 3.0% | 50.0% | Trump | 2024-09-25 | 2024-10-01 | |
2024-09-27 12:00 | 48.0% | 2.0% | 50.0% | Trump | 2024-09-25 | 2024-10-01 |
Older Polls
| Middate/Time | Pollster | Harris | <> | Trump | Margin | Start/End | Released/Entered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024-09-26 12:00 | 47.0% | 2.0% | 51.0% | Trump | 2024-09-25 | 2024-10-04 | |
2024-09-25 00:00 | 48.0% | 4.0% | 48.0% | TIED | 2024-09-20 | 2024-10-03 | |
2024-09-25 00:00 | 48.0% | 6.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-09-20 | 2024-10-03 | |
2024-09-25 00:00 | 47.1% | 3.5% | 49.4% | Trump | 2024-09-23 | 2024-09-30 | |
2024-09-23 00:00 | 50.8% | 1.9% | 47.3% | Harris | 2024-09-20 | 2024-09-29 | |
2024-09-23 00:00 | 50.5% | 1.4% | 48.1% | Harris | 2024-09-20 | 2024-09-29 | |
2024-09-23 00:00 | 48.0% | 4.0% | 48.0% | TIED | 2024-09-20 | 2024-09-27 | |
2024-09-22 12:00 | 49.0% | 2.0% | 49.0% | TIED | 2024-09-19 | 2024-10-02 | |
2024-09-22 12:00 | 49.0% | 5.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-09-19 | 2024-10-02 | |
2024-09-22 12:00 | 50.0% | 2.0% | 48.0% | Harris | 2024-09-20 | 2024-09-27 | |
2024-09-22 12:00 | 49.0% | 1.0% | 50.0% | Trump | 2024-09-20 | 2024-09-27 | |
2024-09-22 12:00 | 48.0% | 5.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-09-20 | 2024-09-27 | |
2024-09-22 12:00 | 47.0% | 4.0% | 49.0% | Trump | 2024-09-20 | 2024-09-27 | |
2024-09-22 12:00 | 50.0% | 2.0% | 48.0% | Harris | 2024-09-19 | 2024-09-26 | |
2024-09-22 12:00 | 49.0% | 4.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-09-19 | 2024-09-26 | |
2024-09-22 12:00 | 50.0% | 3.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-09-19 | 2024-09-26 | |
2024-09-22 12:00 | 48.0% | 6.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-09-19 | 2024-09-26 | |
2024-09-22 00:00 | 50.8% | 0.0% | 49.2% | Harris | 2024-09-07 | 2024-10-07 | |
2024-09-22 00:00 | 49.0% | 3.0% | 48.0% | Harris | 2024-09-19 | 2024-09-26 | |
2024-09-22 00:00 | 49.0% | 2.0% | 49.0% | TIED | 2024-09-19 | 2024-09-26 | |
2024-09-22 00:00 | 48.0% | 5.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-09-20 | 2024-09-24 | |
2024-09-22 00:00 | 49.0% | 3.0% | 48.0% | Harris | 2024-09-20 | 2024-09-24 | |
2024-09-21 00:00 | 46.0% | 5.0% | 49.0% | Trump | 2024-09-19 | 2024-09-27 | |
2024-09-19 12:00 | 48.0% | 4.0% | 48.0% | TIED | 2024-09-18 | 2024-09-27 | |
2024-09-19 12:00 | 44.0% | 11.0% | 45.0% | Trump | 2024-09-17 | 2024-09-23 | |
2024-09-19 12:00 | 46.0% | 8.0% | 46.0% | TIED | 2024-09-17 | 2024-09-23 | |
2024-09-19 12:00 | 47.0% | 5.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-09-17 | 2024-09-23 | |
2024-09-19 12:00 | 45.0% | 8.0% | 47.0% | Trump | 2024-09-17 | 2024-09-23 | |
2024-09-19 12:00 | 47.0% | 4.0% | 49.0% | Trump | 2024-09-17 | 2024-09-23 | |
2024-09-18 00:00 | 47.0% | 5.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-09-16 | 2024-09-23 | |
2024-09-17 12:00 | 44.9% | 6.6% | 48.5% | Trump | 2024-09-16 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-17 00:00 | 49.7% | 1.0% | 49.3% | Harris | 2024-09-15 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-17 00:00 | 49.1% | 2.7% | 48.2% | Harris | 2024-09-15 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-16 00:00 | 38.7% | 18.2% | 43.1% | Trump | 2024-09-15 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-16 00:00 | 45.3% | 9.1% | 45.6% | Trump | 2024-09-15 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-14 12:00 | 47.0% | 3.0% | 50.0% | Trump | 2024-09-11 | 2024-09-25 | |
2024-09-14 12:00 | 46.0% | 6.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-09-11 | 2024-09-25 | |
2024-09-14 00:00 | 49.3% | 3.5% | 47.2% | Harris | 2024-09-09 | 2024-09-19 | |
2024-09-12 12:00 | 45.2% | 6.9% | 47.9% | Trump | 2024-09-11 | 2024-09-14 | |
2024-09-12 12:00 | 44.6% | 9.0% | 46.4% | Trump | 2024-09-11 | 2024-09-14 | |
2024-09-12 12:00 | 46.0% | 5.4% | 48.6% | Trump | 2024-09-11 | 2024-09-14 | |
2024-09-12 12:00 | 45.6% | 7.4% | 47.0% | Trump | 2024-09-11 | 2024-09-14 | |
2024-09-12 00:00 | 46.0% | 5.6% | 48.4% | Trump | 2024-09-11 | 2024-09-13 | |
2024-09-12 00:00 | 48.3% | 1.7% | 50.0% | Trump | 2024-09-11 | 2024-09-13 | |
2024-09-10 00:00 | 48.2% | 3.4% | 48.4% | Trump | 2024-09-03 | 2024-09-25 | |
2024-09-10 00:00 | 47.5% | 3.3% | 49.2% | Trump | 2024-09-03 | 2024-09-25 | |
2024-09-10 00:00 | 47.1% | 0.0% | 52.9% | Trump | 2024-09-03 | 2024-09-25 | |
2024-09-10 00:00 | 45.8% | 2.8% | 51.4% | Trump | 2024-09-03 | 2024-09-25 | |
2024-09-10 00:00 | 44.5% | 6.2% | 49.3% | Trump | 2024-09-03 | 2024-09-25 | |
2024-09-09 00:00 | 46.0% | 9.0% | 45.0% | Harris | 2024-09-04 | 2024-09-24 | |
2024-09-08 00:00 | 45.0% | 11.0% | 44.0% | Harris | 2024-09-06 | 2024-09-10 | |
2024-09-06 12:00 | 50.0% | 3.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-09-04 | 2024-09-09 | |
2024-09-06 12:00 | 49.0% | 5.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-09-04 | 2024-09-09 | |
2024-09-06 00:00 | 49.0% | 5.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-09-04 | 2024-09-09 | |
2024-09-06 00:00 | 47.0% | 5.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-09-05 | 2024-09-09 | |
2024-09-06 00:00 | 46.0% | 7.0% | 47.0% | Trump | 2024-09-05 | 2024-09-09 | |
2024-09-04 00:00 | 48.0% | 4.0% | 48.0% | TIED | 2024-08-30 | 2024-09-09 | |
2024-09-02 12:00 | 47.5% | 2.5% | 50.0% | Trump | 2024-09-01 | 2024-09-05 | |
2024-08-30 12:00 | 48.4% | 2.4% | 49.2% | Trump | 2024-08-29 | 2024-08-31 | |
2024-08-29 00:00 | 46.0% | 7.0% | 47.0% | Trump | 2024-08-23 | 2024-09-05 | |
2024-08-27 12:00 | 46.9% | 5.5% | 47.6% | Trump | 2024-08-26 | 2024-09-03 | |
2024-08-27 00:00 | 44.0% | 11.0% | 45.0% | Trump | 2024-08-25 | 2024-08-30 | |
2024-08-27 00:00 | 49.0% | 1.1% | 49.9% | Trump | 2024-08-25 | 2024-08-29 | |
2024-08-27 00:00 | 48.1% | 2.8% | 49.1% | Trump | 2024-08-25 | 2024-08-29 | |
2024-08-27 00:00 | 46.0% | 4.0% | 50.0% | Trump | 2024-08-26 | 2024-08-27 | |
2024-08-25 00:00 | 49.0% | 2.0% | 49.0% | TIED | 2024-08-23 | 2024-08-29 | |
2024-08-25 00:00 | 48.0% | 4.0% | 48.0% | TIED | 2024-08-23 | 2024-08-29 | |
2024-08-25 00:00 | 49.0% | 4.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-08-23 | 2024-08-29 | |
2024-08-25 00:00 | 48.0% | 5.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-08-23 | 2024-08-29 | |
2024-08-25 00:00 | 49.0% | 1.0% | 50.0% | Trump | 2024-08-23 | 2024-08-28 | |
2024-08-25 00:00 | 47.0% | 5.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-08-23 | 2024-08-28 | |
2024-08-20 12:00 | 48.0% | 6.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-08-19 | 2024-08-23 | |
2024-08-20 12:00 | 47.0% | 6.0% | 47.0% | TIED | 2024-08-19 | 2024-08-23 | |
2024-08-20 12:00 | 46.0% | 9.0% | 45.0% | Harris | 2024-08-19 | 2024-08-22 | |
2024-08-19 00:00 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | TIED | 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-31 | |
2024-08-17 12:00 | 46.5% | 8.4% | 45.1% | Harris | 2024-08-14 | 2024-08-29 | |
2024-08-17 12:00 | 47.2% | 5.4% | 47.4% | Trump | 2024-08-14 | 2024-08-29 | |
2024-08-14 00:00 | 44.0% | 9.0% | 47.0% | Trump | 2024-08-12 | 2024-08-19 | |
2024-08-12 00:00 | 46.0% | 10.0% | 44.0% | Harris | 2024-08-09 | 2024-08-17 | |
2024-08-12 00:00 | 49.0% | 4.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-08-09 | 2024-08-17 | |
2024-08-12 00:00 | 45.0% | 13.0% | 42.0% | Harris | 2024-08-09 | 2024-08-17 | |
2024-08-12 00:00 | 49.0% | 5.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-08-09 | 2024-08-17 | |
2024-08-11 12:00 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | TIED | 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-19 | |
2024-08-11 12:00 | 47.0% | 10.0% | 43.0% | Harris | 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-19 | |
2024-08-11 12:00 | 47.0% | 9.0% | 44.0% | Harris | 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-19 | |
2024-08-11 12:00 | 47.0% | 7.0% | 46.0% | Harris | 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-19 | |
2024-08-07 12:00 | 45.0% | 10.0% | 45.0% | TIED | 2024-08-05 | 2024-08-11 | |
2024-08-07 12:00 | 46.0% | 8.0% | 46.0% | TIED | 2024-08-05 | 2024-08-11 | |
2024-08-07 12:00 | 45.0% | 6.0% | 49.0% | Trump | 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-09 | |
2024-08-05 00:00 | 38.5% | 19.6% | 41.9% | Trump | 2024-08-04 | 2024-08-09 | |
2024-08-05 00:00 | 44.1% | 8.7% | 47.2% | Trump | 2024-08-04 | 2024-08-09 | |
2024-08-04 12:00 | 46.0% | 6.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-07-31 | 2024-08-20 | |
2024-08-04 12:00 | 46.0% | 8.0% | 46.0% | TIED | 2024-07-31 | 2024-08-20 | |
2024-08-04 12:00 | 45.0% | 9.0% | 46.0% | Trump | 2024-07-31 | 2024-08-20 | |
2024-08-02 00:00 | 41.0% | 15.0% | 44.0% | Trump | 2024-07-31 | 2024-08-06 | |
2024-07-30 00:00 | 48.0% | 5.0% | 47.0% | Harris | 2024-07-26 | 2024-08-14 | |
2024-07-30 00:00 | 46.0% | 10.0% | 44.0% | Harris | 2024-07-26 | 2024-08-14 | |
2024-07-26 12:00 | 46.0% | 6.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-07-24 | 2024-07-30 | |
2024-07-26 12:00 | 44.0% | 11.0% | 45.0% | Trump | 2024-07-24 | 2024-07-30 | |
2024-07-23 12:00 | 43.0% | 11.0% | 46.0% | Trump | 2024-07-22 | 2024-07-26 | |
2024-07-20 00:00 | 44.0% | 8.0% | 48.0% | Trump | 2024-07-19 | 2024-07-21 | |
2024-02-15 12:00 | 40.7% | 9.4% | 49.9% | Trump | 2024-02-14 | 2024-02-21 | |
2020-11-03 12:00 | 48.6% | 1.5% | 49.9% | REP | 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-03 | |
2016-11-08 12:00 | 46.2% | 4.0% | 49.8% | REP | 2016-11-08 | 2016-11-08 | |
2012-11-06 12:00 | 48.4% | 1.3% | 50.4% | REP | 2012-11-06 | 2012-11-06 | |
2008-11-04 12:00 | 49.7% | 0.9% | 49.4% | DEM | 2008-11-04 | 2008-11-04 | |
2004-11-02 12:00 | 43.6% | 0.4% | 56.0% | REP | 2004-11-02 | 2004-11-02 | |
2000-11-07 12:00 | 43.2% | 0.8% | 56.0% | REP | 2000-11-07 | 2000-11-07 | |
1996-11-05 12:00 | 44.0% | 7.2% | 48.7% | REP | 1996-11-05 | 1996-11-05 | |
1992-11-03 12:00 | 42.7% | 13.9% | 43.4% | REP | 1992-11-03 | 1992-11-03 | |
1988-11-08 12:00 | 41.7% | 0.3% | 58.0% | REP | 1988-11-08 | 1988-11-08 | |
1984-11-06 12:00 | 37.9% | 0.2% | 61.9% | REP | 1984-11-06 | 1984-11-06 | |
1980-11-04 12:00 | 47.2% | 3.5% | 49.3% | REP | 1980-11-04 | 1980-11-04 |
Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".
For more information, read the FAQ.
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