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2024 Electoral College

Harris vs Trump - Michigan [15 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-11-04 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-11-05 19:56 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Harris vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 Michigan [15 EV] Poll Average

 

Harris Trump
 

 

2024 Michigan [15 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Harris Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Harris Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-11-04 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

48.3%

1.9%

49.8%

Trump
by 1.5%

2024-11-03
2024-11-04

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 05:01

2024-11-04 00:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

47.8%

2.6%

49.6%

Trump
by 1.8%

2024-11-03
2024-11-04

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 04:59

2024-11-03 00:00

Research Co

51.0%

2.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-11-02
2024-11-03

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 19:00

2024-11-02 12:00

Trafalgar

47.4%

4.8%

47.8%

Trump
by 0.4%

2024-11-01
2024-11-03

2024-11-03
2024-11-04 03:52

2024-11-02 12:00

Patriot Polling

49.2%

2.3%

48.5%

Harris
by 0.7%

2024-11-01
2024-11-03

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 19:24

2024-11-02 00:00

InsiderAdvantage

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-11-01
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-04 02:53

2024-11-02 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

48.2%

2.1%

49.7%

Trump
by 1.5%

2024-11-01
2024-11-02

2024-11-02
2024-11-03 08:30

2024-11-02 00:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

47.8%

2.9%

49.3%

Trump
by 1.5%

2024-11-01
2024-11-02

2024-11-02
2024-11-03 08:28

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-11-01 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

50.5%

0.6%

48.9%

Harris
by 1.6%

2024-10-30
2024-11-02

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 17:59

2024-11-01 00:00

Emerson [2]

49.7%

2.1%

48.2%

Harris
by 1.5%

2024-10-30
2024-11-02

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 17:58

2024-10-31 12:00

Mitchell w/5P [2]

49.0%

3.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-10-29
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-04 03:50

2024-10-31 12:00

Mitchell [2]

50.0%

2.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-10-29
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-04 03:48

2024-10-31 12:00

Siena RV wo/Lean w/6P [5]

40.0%

17.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-10-29
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 17:19

2024-10-31 12:00

Siena RV Combined w/6P [5]

42.0%

14.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-29
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 17:17

2024-10-31 12:00

Siena RV [5]

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-10-29
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 17:14

2024-10-31 12:00

Siena LV w/6P [5]

45.0%

10.0%

45.0%

TIED

2024-10-29
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 17:10

2024-10-31 12:00

Siena LV [5]

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-10-29
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 17:08

2024-10-31 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

48.7%

2.0%

49.3%

Trump
by 0.6%

2024-10-30
2024-10-31

2024-10-31
2024-11-01 17:37

2024-10-31 00:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

48.3%

2.5%

49.2%

Trump
by 0.9%

2024-10-30
2024-10-31

2024-10-31
2024-11-01 17:36

2024-10-30 12:00

Democracy Institute

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-29
2024-10-31

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 19:56

2024-10-30 12:00

OnMessage

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-10-29
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 10:05

2024-10-30 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-10-28
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 00:22

2024-10-29 12:00

Mainstreet RV [2]

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-10-25
2024-11-02

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 20:35

2024-10-29 12:00

Mainstreet LV [2]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-10-25
2024-11-02

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 20:32

2024-10-29 00:00

Mitchell

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-28
2024-10-29

2024-10-31
2024-11-01 18:38

2024-10-29 00:00

Echelon Total [3]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-10-27
2024-10-30

2024-11-01
2024-11-01 17:19

2024-10-29 00:00

Echelon Definitely [3]

45.0%

10.0%

45.0%

TIED

2024-10-27
2024-10-30

2024-11-01
2024-11-01 17:16

2024-10-29 00:00

Echelon w/6P [3]

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-10-27
2024-10-30

2024-11-01
2024-11-01 17:14

2024-10-29 00:00

Marist RV [2]

51.0%

1.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-10-27
2024-10-30

2024-11-01
2024-11-01 16:38

2024-10-29 00:00

Marist LV [2]

51.0%

1.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-10-27
2024-10-30

2024-11-01
2024-11-01 16:36

2024-10-28 12:00

Rasmussen

49.0%

3.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-10-24
2024-11-01

2024-11-02
2024-11-03 09:17

2024-10-28 12:00

YouGov LV [4]

50.0%

3.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 08:34

2024-10-28 12:00

YouGov RV [4]

50.0%

4.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 08:32

2024-10-28 12:00

YouGov LV w/4P [4]

48.0%

7.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 08:30

2024-10-28 12:00

YouGov RV w/4P [4]

47.0%

8.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 08:26

2024-10-27 12:00

Quantus w/Lean [2]

49.2%

2.3%

48.5%

Harris
by 0.7%

2024-10-26
2024-10-28

2024-10-29
2024-10-30 00:47

2024-10-27 12:00

Quantus [2]

47.0%

7.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-10-26
2024-10-28

2024-10-29
2024-10-30 00:44

2024-10-27 12:00

AtlasIntel [2]

48.1%

2.6%

49.3%

Trump
by 1.2%

2024-10-25
2024-10-29

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 23:44

2024-10-27 12:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

47.9%

2.9%

49.2%

Trump
by 1.3%

2024-10-25
2024-10-29

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 23:42

2024-10-27 00:00

Morning Consult

49.0%

3.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-10-22
2024-10-31

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 18:59

2024-10-27 00:00

InsiderAdvantage

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-26
2024-10-27

2024-10-28
2024-10-28 20:49

2024-10-26 12:00

Washington Post RV w/3P [2]

45.0%

8.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-24
2024-10-28

2024-10-31
2024-11-01 17:11

2024-10-26 12:00

Washington Post LV w/3P [2]

47.0%

7.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-10-24
2024-10-28

2024-10-31
2024-11-01 17:10

2024-10-26 12:00

EPIC-MRA w/5P

48.0%

7.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-10-24
2024-10-28

2024-11-01
2024-11-01 16:55

2024-10-26 12:00

Beacon/Shaw RV [4]

50.0%

2.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-10-24
2024-10-28

2024-10-30
2024-10-31 06:31

2024-10-26 12:00

Beacon/Shaw LV [4]

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-10-24
2024-10-28

2024-10-30
2024-10-31 06:30

2024-10-26 12:00

Beacon/Shaw RV w/6P [4]

49.0%

6.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-10-24
2024-10-28

2024-10-30
2024-10-31 06:17

2024-10-26 12:00

Beacon/Shaw LV w/6P [4]

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-10-24
2024-10-28

2024-10-30
2024-10-31 06:14

2024-10-26 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

49.3%

0.9%

49.8%

Trump
by 0.5%

2024-10-25
2024-10-27

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 18:59

2024-10-26 12:00

Emerson [2]

48.3%

2.7%

49.0%

Trump
by 0.7%

2024-10-25
2024-10-27

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 18:57

2024-10-26 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

49.0%

3.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-27

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 18:23

2024-10-26 00:00

SSRS w/6P

48.0%

9.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-10-23
2024-10-28

2024-10-30
2024-10-30 17:59

2024-10-26 00:00

Suffolk w/7P

47.4%

5.6%

47.0%

Harris
by 0.4%

2024-10-24
2024-10-27

2024-10-30
2024-10-30 16:51

2024-10-25 12:00

Susquehanna

51.7%

1.7%

46.6%

Harris
by 5.1%

2024-10-23
2024-10-27

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 18:52

2024-10-25 12:00

Patriot Polling

49.0%

1.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-24
2024-10-26

2024-10-28
2024-10-28 20:46

2024-10-23 12:00

Glengariff w/5P

47.0%

9.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-10-22
2024-10-24

2024-10-28
2024-10-29 01:45

2024-10-21 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-10-20
2024-10-22

2024-10-25
2024-10-25 18:26

2024-10-21 00:00

ActiVote

49.7%

0.0%

50.3%

Trump
by 0.6%

2024-10-08
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 19:00

2024-10-20 12:00

YouGov w/7P

49.0%

6.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-10-16
2024-10-24

2024-10-31
2024-11-01 16:30

2024-10-19 12:00

Quinnipiac [2]

50.0%

4.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-10-17
2024-10-21

2024-10-23
2024-10-23 19:31

2024-10-19 12:00

Quinnipiac w/6P [2]

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-10-17
2024-10-21

2024-10-23
2024-10-23 19:28

2024-10-19 12:00

Trafalgar

44.2%

9.8%

46.0%

Trump
by 1.8%

2024-10-18
2024-10-20

2024-10-22
2024-10-22 17:12

2024-10-18 12:00

Morning Consult LV [4]

50.0%

4.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-10-16
2024-10-20

2024-10-23
2024-10-24 06:08

2024-10-18 12:00

Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-10-16
2024-10-20

2024-10-23
2024-10-24 06:06

2024-10-18 12:00

Morning Consult RV [4]

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-10-16
2024-10-20

2024-10-23
2024-10-24 06:04

2024-10-18 12:00

Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]

47.0%

8.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-10-16
2024-10-20

2024-10-23
2024-10-24 06:01

2024-10-18 00:00

FocalData LV w/4P [3]

50.3%

4.3%

45.4%

Harris
by 4.9%

2024-10-03
2024-11-01

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 23:48

2024-10-18 00:00

FocalData RV w/4P [3]

51.0%

4.9%

44.1%

Harris
by 6.9%

2024-10-03
2024-11-01

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 23:34

2024-10-18 00:00

FocalData A w/4P [3]

50.0%

6.4%

43.6%

Harris
by 6.4%

2024-10-03
2024-11-01

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 23:31

2024-10-17 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-10-16
2024-10-18

2024-10-21
2024-10-21 19:18

2024-10-15 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

47.3%

2.5%

50.2%

Trump
by 2.9%

2024-10-12
2024-10-17

2024-10-20
2024-10-20 18:56

2024-10-15 00:00

AtlasIntel w/6P [2]

47.0%

3.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-10-12
2024-10-17

2024-10-20
2024-10-20 18:53

2024-10-14 12:00

Bullfinch w/G3P [2]

51.0%

6.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 8.0%

2024-10-11
2024-10-17

2024-10-18
2024-10-20 01:33

2024-10-14 12:00

Bullfinch [2]

53.0%

2.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 8.0%

2024-10-11
2024-10-17

2024-10-18
2024-10-20 01:30

2024-10-14 12:00

Mitchell [2]

47.4%

4.1%

48.5%

Trump
by 1.1%

2024-10-14
2024-10-14

2024-10-17
2024-10-18 15:33

2024-10-14 12:00

Mitchell w/6P [2]

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-10-14
2024-10-14

2024-10-17
2024-10-18 15:31

2024-10-13 12:00

CCES LV [2]

51.0%

3.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-10-01
2024-10-25

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 21:26

2024-10-13 12:00

CCES All [2]

52.0%

3.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 7.0%

2024-10-01
2024-10-25

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 21:22

2024-10-13 12:00

RMG Research w/Lean [2]

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-10-10
2024-10-16

2024-10-17
2024-10-18 15:39

2024-10-13 12:00

RMG Research [2]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-10-10
2024-10-16

2024-10-17
2024-10-18 15:38

2024-10-13 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-10-12
2024-10-14

2024-10-16
2024-10-17 05:25

2024-10-12 12:00

SoCal

49.0%

3.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-10-11
2024-10-13

2024-10-15
2024-10-16 08:18

2024-10-11 00:00

Morning Consult

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-10-06
2024-10-15

2024-10-17
2024-10-18 15:50

2024-10-09 12:00

MRG w/Lean w/7P [2]

44.9%

11.1%

44.0%

Harris
by 0.9%

2024-10-07
2024-10-11

2024-10-15
2024-10-16 08:10

2024-10-09 12:00

MRG w/7P [2]

42.2%

16.2%

41.6%

Harris
by 0.6%

2024-10-07
2024-10-11

2024-10-15
2024-10-16 08:07

2024-10-09 00:00

InsiderAdvantage

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-08
2024-10-09

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 21:22

2024-10-08 12:00

American Viewpoint

45.0%

13.0%

42.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-10-08
2024-10-08

2024-10-08
2024-10-15 01:49

2024-10-08 00:00

Washington Post LV [2]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-30
2024-10-15

2024-10-21
2024-10-21 13:49

2024-10-08 00:00

Washington Post RV [2]

46.0%

7.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-30
2024-10-15

2024-10-21
2024-10-21 13:47

2024-10-08 00:00

Fabrizio McLaughlin

48.0%

3.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-06
2024-10-09

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 18:15

2024-10-07 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

49.7%

0.7%

49.6%

Harris
by 0.1%

2024-10-05
2024-10-08

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 15:45

2024-10-07 00:00

Emerson [2]

49.2%

1.8%

49.0%

Harris
by 0.2%

2024-10-05
2024-10-08

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 15:43

2024-10-06 12:00

Research Co DV [2]

51.0%

1.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-10-05
2024-10-07

2024-10-08
2024-10-08 20:14

2024-10-06 12:00

Research Co RV [2]

46.0%

10.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-10-05
2024-10-07

2024-10-08
2024-10-08 20:09

2024-10-05 12:00

Fabrizio Ward [2]

48.0%

3.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-02
2024-10-08

2024-10-15
2024-10-16 07:59

2024-10-05 12:00

Fabrizio Ward w/6P [2]

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-10-02
2024-10-08

2024-10-15
2024-10-16 07:53

2024-10-05 12:00

Quinnipiac [2]

47.0%

2.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-10-03
2024-10-07

2024-10-09
2024-10-10 02:58

2024-10-05 12:00

Quinnipiac w/6P [2]

47.0%

3.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-10-03
2024-10-07

2024-10-09
2024-10-10 02:55

2024-10-03 12:00

Fabrizio Lee Total [3]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-28
2024-10-08

2024-10-11
2024-10-11 16:52

2024-10-03 12:00

Fabrizio Lee Definitely [3]

45.0%

12.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-28
2024-10-08

2024-10-11
2024-10-11 16:50

2024-10-03 12:00

Fabrizio Lee w/6P [3]

47.0%

8.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-28
2024-10-08

2024-10-11
2024-10-11 16:47

2024-10-03 00:00

Glengariff w/6P

46.8%

9.0%

44.2%

Harris
by 2.6%

2024-10-01
2024-10-04

2024-10-07
2024-10-08 07:15

2024-10-03 00:00

Democracy Institute

46.0%

7.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-02
2024-10-03

2024-10-04
2024-10-08 06:20

2024-10-02 00:00

YouGov w/G3P [2]

50.8%

2.8%

46.4%

Harris
by 4.4%

2024-09-23
2024-10-10

2024-10-24
2024-10-25 16:46

2024-10-02 00:00

YouGov [2]

52.3%

0.0%

47.7%

Harris
by 4.6%

2024-09-23
2024-10-10

2024-10-23
2024-10-25 16:45

2024-09-30 12:00

Mitchell w/7P [2]

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-09-30
2024-09-30

2024-10-03
2024-10-04 06:15

2024-09-30 12:00

Mitchell [2]

48.0%

3.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-30
2024-09-30

2024-10-03
2024-10-04 06:12

2024-09-30 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-27
2024-10-02

2024-10-07
2024-10-08 03:24

2024-09-29 12:00

Trafalgar

44.7%

8.4%

46.9%

Trump
by 2.2%

2024-09-28
2024-09-30

2024-10-02
2024-10-03 04:17

2024-09-28 12:00

OnMessage

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-24
2024-10-02

2024-10-11
2024-10-11 17:51

2024-09-28 00:00

ActiVote

51.2%

0.0%

48.8%

Harris
by 2.4%

2024-09-15
2024-10-10

2024-10-11
2024-10-11 18:45

2024-09-26 12:00

Global Strategy Group [3]

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-23
2024-09-29

2024-10-09
2024-10-10 01:56

2024-09-26 12:00

Global Strategy Group w/Lean w/6P [3]

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-23
2024-09-29

2024-10-09
2024-10-10 01:54

2024-09-26 12:00

Global Strategy Group w/6P [3]

45.0%

8.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-23
2024-09-29

2024-10-09
2024-10-10 01:50

2024-09-26 00:00

RMG Research w/Lean [2]

50.0%

3.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-24
2024-09-27

2024-10-01
2024-10-01 22:48

2024-09-26 00:00

RMG Research [2]

50.0%

4.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-09-24
2024-09-27

2024-10-01
2024-10-01 22:47

2024-09-24 00:00

Siena RV wo/Lean w/6P [5]

41.0%

15.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-09-21
2024-09-26

2024-09-28
2024-09-28 17:25

2024-09-24 00:00

Siena RV Combined w/6P [5]

43.0%

11.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-09-21
2024-09-26

2024-09-28
2024-09-28 17:23

2024-09-24 00:00

Siena RV [5]

45.0%

8.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-21
2024-09-26

2024-09-28
2024-09-28 17:20

2024-09-24 00:00

Siena LV w/6P [5]

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-09-21
2024-09-26

2024-09-28
2024-09-28 17:16

2024-09-24 00:00

Siena LV [5]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-21
2024-09-26

2024-09-28
2024-09-28 17:12

2024-09-23 00:00

AtlasIntel w/5P [2]

46.6%

3.0%

50.4%

Trump
by 3.8%

2024-09-20
2024-09-25

2024-09-29
2024-09-30 06:10

2024-09-23 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

47.2%

2.2%

50.6%

Trump
by 3.4%

2024-09-20
2024-09-25

2024-09-29
2024-09-30 06:00

2024-09-22 12:00

BSG/GS [2]

51.0%

1.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-10-02
2024-10-02 15:31

2024-09-22 12:00

BSG/GS w/5P [2]

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-10-02
2024-10-02 15:29

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult LV [4]

50.0%

3.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 07:27

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]

50.0%

4.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 07:25

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult RV [4]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 07:22

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]

49.0%

6.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 07:19

2024-09-21 12:00

Rodriguez Gudelunas

51.0%

4.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 6.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-23

2024-10-02
2024-10-23 19:18

2024-09-21 00:00

Rasmussen

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-09-19
2024-09-22

2024-09-27
2024-09-27 20:36

2024-09-18 12:00

Remington w/4P

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-16
2024-09-20

2024-10-01
2024-10-01 22:22

2024-09-18 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

46.0%

9.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-16
2024-09-19

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 17:48

2024-09-17 12:00

Suffolk w/7P

48.0%

7.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-16
2024-09-18

2024-09-24
2024-09-24 16:19

2024-09-17 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

50.0%

0.9%

49.1%

Harris
by 0.9%

2024-09-15
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 18:52

2024-09-17 00:00

Emerson [2]

48.7%

4.0%

47.3%

Harris
by 1.4%

2024-09-15
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 18:50

2024-09-15 12:00

American Viewpoint

44.0%

14.0%

42.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-15
2024-09-15

2024-10-08
2024-10-15 01:48

2024-09-15 12:00

YouGov w/7P

48.0%

9.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-09-11
2024-09-19

2024-09-26
2024-09-26 16:02

2024-09-15 00:00

Marist RV [2]

50.0%

3.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-12
2024-09-17

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 19:29

2024-09-15 00:00

Marist LV [2]

52.0%

1.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-09-12
2024-09-17

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 19:27

2024-09-14 12:00

Quinnipiac [2]

51.0%

3.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-09-12
2024-09-16

2024-09-18
2024-09-18 18:04

2024-09-14 12:00

Quinnipiac w/6P [2]

50.0%

5.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-09-12
2024-09-16

2024-09-18
2024-09-18 18:01

2024-09-14 00:00

Morning Consult

52.0%

3.6%

44.5%

Harris
by 7.5%

2024-09-09
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-20 04:31

2024-09-12 00:00

Insider Advantage

48.0%

3.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-11
2024-09-12

2024-09-12
2024-09-12 17:12

2024-09-10 12:00

Mitchell w/7P [2]

47.0%

7.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-10
2024-09-10

2024-09-13
2024-09-13 17:23

2024-09-10 12:00

Mitchell [2]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-09-10
2024-09-10

2024-09-13
2024-09-13 17:21

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData A w/4P [5]

49.2%

4.1%

46.7%

Harris
by 2.5%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 03:59

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData RV w/4P [5]

49.9%

3.6%

46.5%

Harris
by 3.4%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 03:57

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV [5]

50.6%

0.0%

49.4%

Harris
by 1.2%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 03:54

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV w/Squeeze w/4P [5]

48.7%

3.3%

48.0%

Harris
by 0.7%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 03:52

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV w/4P [5]

47.8%

5.7%

46.5%

Harris
by 1.3%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 03:50

2024-09-08 00:00

Redfield & Wilton

48.0%

7.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-06
2024-09-09

2024-09-10
2024-09-11 00:56

2024-09-05 12:00

American Viewpoint

46.0%

9.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-05
2024-09-05

2024-10-08
2024-10-15 01:44

2024-09-05 12:00

co/efficient

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-09-04
2024-09-06

2024-09-10
2024-09-11 01:33

2024-09-05 00:00

YouGov

50.0%

1.0%

49.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-03
2024-09-06

2024-09-08
2024-09-08 18:21

2024-09-04 00:00

Morning Consult

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-08-30
2024-09-08

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 04:25

2024-09-02 12:00

Patriot Polling

48.4%

4.0%

47.6%

Harris
by 0.8%

2024-09-01
2024-09-03

2024-09-05
2024-09-06 05:44

2024-08-30 12:00

Cygnal

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-28
2024-09-01

2024-09-13
2024-09-13 16:28

2024-08-29 12:00

Trafalgar

46.6%

6.4%

47.0%

Trump
by 0.4%

2024-08-28
2024-08-30

2024-08-31
2024-08-31 19:36

2024-08-29 00:00

YouGov

48.0%

9.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-08-23
2024-09-03

2024-09-05
2024-09-06 06:11

2024-08-27 12:00

Glengariff w/4P

43.5%

11.8%

44.7%

Trump
by 1.2%

2024-08-26
2024-08-28

2024-09-03
2024-09-04 01:53

2024-08-27 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

9.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-08-25
2024-08-28

2024-08-30
2024-08-30 17:52

2024-08-27 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

51.2%

1.2%

47.6%

Harris
by 3.6%

2024-08-25
2024-08-28

2024-08-29
2024-08-29 15:58

2024-08-27 00:00

Emerson [2]

49.9%

3.6%

46.5%

Harris
by 3.4%

2024-08-25
2024-08-28

2024-08-29
2024-08-29 15:55

2024-08-26 12:00

SSRS w/5P

48.0%

9.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-29

2024-09-04
2024-09-04 21:35

2024-08-25 00:00

Z to A w/5P

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-09-05
2024-09-05 17:40

2024-08-25 00:00

EPIC-MRA Total [4]

46.0%

7.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-30
2024-08-30 18:24

2024-08-25 00:00

EPIC-MRA wo/Lean [4]

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-30
2024-08-30 18:23

2024-08-25 00:00

EPIC-MRA Total w/4P [4]

45.0%

9.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-30
2024-08-30 18:21

2024-08-25 00:00

EPIC-MRA wo/Lean w/4P [4]

44.0%

12.0%

44.0%

TIED

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-30
2024-08-30 18:19

2024-08-25 00:00

Morning Consult LV [4]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 04:53

2024-08-25 00:00

Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 04:51

2024-08-25 00:00

Morning Consult RV [4]

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 04:49

2024-08-25 00:00

Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 04:47

2024-08-21 12:00

TIPP Insights RV w/5P [4]

46.3%

9.1%

44.6%

Harris
by 1.7%

2024-08-20
2024-08-22

2024-08-23
2024-08-26 14:46

2024-08-21 12:00

TIPP Insights RV w/5P [4]

43.7%

14.4%

41.9%

Harris
by 1.8%

2024-08-20
2024-08-22

2024-08-23
2024-08-26 14:42

2024-08-21 12:00

TIPP Insights LV [4]

48.4%

5.6%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.4%

2024-08-20
2024-08-22

2024-08-26
2024-08-26 14:39

2024-08-21 12:00

TIPP Insights RV [4]

46.4%

9.5%

44.1%

Harris
by 2.3%

2024-08-20
2024-08-22

2024-08-26
2024-08-26 14:35

2024-08-20 12:00

Fabrizio Ward [2]

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-08-19
2024-08-21

2024-08-29
2024-08-29 16:42

2024-08-20 12:00

Fabrizio Ward w/6P [2]

44.0%

13.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-08-19
2024-08-21

2024-08-29
2024-08-29 16:37

2024-08-19 12:00

YouGov LV w/6P [4]

47.0%

7.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-08-15
2024-08-23

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 05:06

2024-08-19 12:00

YouGov All w/6P [4]

44.0%

14.5%

41.5%

Harris
by 2.5%

2024-08-15
2024-08-23

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 05:04

2024-08-19 12:00

YouGov LV [4]

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-15
2024-08-23

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 05:01

2024-08-19 12:00

YouGov All [4]

44.0%

12.5%

43.5%

Harris
by 0.5%

2024-08-15
2024-08-23

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 04:58

2024-08-15 12:00

American Viewpoint

44.0%

10.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-08-15
2024-08-15

2024-10-08
2024-10-15 01:42

2024-08-15 12:00

Rasmussen w/6P [2]

47.0%

9.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-08-13
2024-08-17

2024-08-27
2024-09-04 02:29

2024-08-15 12:00

Rasmussen [2]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-08-13
2024-08-17

2024-08-27
2024-09-04 02:26

2024-08-14 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

44.0%

11.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-12
2024-08-15

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 19:03

2024-08-13 00:00

ActiVote

50.1%

0.0%

49.9%

Harris
by 0.2%

2024-07-28
2024-08-28

2024-08-28
2024-08-28 20:11

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata LV [4]

53.0%

0.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 6.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 21:23

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata AV w/5P [4]

50.0%

8.0%

42.0%

Harris
by 8.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 21:21

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata RV w/5P [4]

50.0%

6.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 6.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 21:18

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata LV w/5P [4]

51.0%

5.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 7.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 21:14

2024-08-10 00:00

Bullfinch w/5P [2]

46.0%

14.0%

40.0%

Harris
by 6.0%

2024-08-08
2024-08-11

2024-08-12
2024-08-12 18:41

2024-08-10 00:00

Bullfinch [2]

48.0%

9.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-08-08
2024-08-11

2024-08-12
2024-08-12 18:38

2024-08-09 12:00

Fabrizio Ward [2]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-08-07
2024-08-11

2024-08-15
2024-08-15 22:02

2024-08-09 12:00

Fabrizio Ward w/6P [2]

43.0%

12.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-08-07
2024-08-11

2024-08-15
2024-08-15 18:46

2024-08-07 12:00

InsiderAdvantage

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-08

2024-08-09
2024-08-10 01:40

2024-08-07 00:00

Siena LV w/6P [4]

48.0%

9.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-08-05
2024-08-08

2024-08-10
2024-08-10 14:20

2024-08-07 00:00

Siena LV [4]

50.0%

4.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-05
2024-08-08

2024-08-10
2024-08-10 14:18

2024-08-07 00:00

Siena RV w/6P [4]

44.0%

13.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-08-05
2024-08-08

2024-08-10
2024-08-10 14:16

2024-08-07 00:00

Siena RV [4]

45.0%

7.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-08-05
2024-08-08

2024-08-10
2024-08-10 14:13

2024-08-04 12:00

Navigator [3]

47.0%

7.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-07-31
2024-08-08

2024-08-20
2024-08-20 20:24

2024-08-04 12:00

Navigator w/Lean w/6P [3]

44.0%

12.0%

44.0%

TIED

2024-07-31
2024-08-08

2024-08-20
2024-08-20 20:22

2024-08-04 12:00

Navigator wo/Lean w/6P [3]

44.0%

13.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-07-31
2024-08-08

2024-08-20
2024-08-20 20:20

2024-08-02 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

41.0%

17.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-07-31
2024-08-03

2024-08-06
2024-08-06 16:45

2024-07-30 00:00

BSG/GS [2]

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-07-26
2024-08-02

2024-08-14
2024-08-14 12:14

2024-07-30 00:00

BSG/GS w/3P [2]

46.0%

10.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-07-26
2024-08-02

2024-08-14
2024-08-14 12:12

2024-07-26 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies

45.0%

10.0%

45.0%

TIED

2024-07-23
2024-07-29

2024-08-01
2024-08-01 15:02

2024-07-26 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

53.0%

5.0%

42.0%

Harris
by 11.0%

2024-07-24
2024-07-28

2024-07-30
2024-07-30 21:32

2024-07-26 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

51.0%

10.0%

39.0%

Harris
by 12.0%

2024-07-24
2024-07-28

2024-07-30
2024-07-30 21:22

2024-07-26 00:00

SoCal

46.0%

5.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-07-25
2024-07-26

2024-07-26
2024-07-26 21:00

2024-07-23 12:00

Beacon/Shaw [2]

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-07-22
2024-07-24

2024-07-26
2024-07-27 01:58

2024-07-23 12:00

Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]

43.0%

12.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-22
2024-07-24

2024-07-26
2024-07-27 01:56

2024-07-23 12:00

Glengariff w/5P

41.6%

17.1%

41.3%

Harris
by 0.3%

2024-07-22
2024-07-24

2024-07-26
2024-07-26 14:49

2024-07-23 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

41.0%

15.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-07-22
2024-07-24

2024-07-26
2024-07-26 14:33

2024-07-23 00:00

Emerson w/6P [3]

43.8%

12.1%

44.1%

Trump
by 0.3%

2024-07-22
2024-07-23

2024-07-25
2024-07-25 14:59

2024-07-23 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

49.1%

0.0%

50.9%

Trump
by 1.8%

2024-07-22
2024-07-23

2024-07-25
2024-07-25 14:57

2024-07-23 00:00

Emerson [3]

45.0%

8.7%

46.3%

Trump
by 1.3%

2024-07-22
2024-07-23

2024-07-25
2024-07-25 14:56

2024-07-18 00:00

PPP w/4P

41.0%

13.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-07-17
2024-07-18

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 16:38

2024-07-15 00:00

Civiqs w/3P

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-07-13
2024-07-16

2024-07-19
2024-07-19 22:51

2024-07-12 00:00

PPP

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-11
2024-07-12

2024-07-22
2024-07-24 17:10

2024-05-10 12:00

Morning Consult

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-05-08
2024-05-12

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 20:14

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV [2]

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 18:28

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV [2]

45.0%

8.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 16:45

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

50.6%

1.5%

47.8%

DEM
by 2.8%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 07:00

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

47.3%

5.2%

47.5%

REP
by 0.2%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 03:01

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

54.2%

1.1%

44.7%

DEM
by 9.5%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:37

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

57.4%

1.6%

41.0%

DEM
by 16.5%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:06

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

51.2%

1.0%

47.8%

DEM
by 3.4%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:21

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

51.3%

2.6%

46.2%

DEM
by 5.1%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 09:53

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

51.7%

9.8%

38.5%

DEM
by 13.2%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 09:35

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

43.8%

19.9%

36.4%

DEM
by 7.4%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 03:25

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

45.7%

0.8%

53.6%

REP
by 7.9%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 10:27

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

40.2%

0.5%

59.2%

REP
by 19.0%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-22 03:42

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

42.5%

8.5%

49.0%

REP
by 6.5%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:58

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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