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2024 Electoral College

Harris vs Trump - California [54 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-11-03 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-11-04 18:37 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Harris vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 California [54 EV] Poll Average

 

Harris Trump
 

 

2024 California [54 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Harris Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Harris Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-11-03 00:00

Research Co

65.0%

3.0%

32.0%

Harris
by 33.0%

2024-11-02
2024-11-03

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 18:37

2024-10-29 00:00

Cygnal Total w/6P [2]

55.4%

13.7%

30.9%

Harris
by 24.5%

2024-10-27
2024-10-30

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 07:00

2024-10-29 00:00

Cygnal Definitely w/6P [2]

50.2%

23.1%

26.7%

Harris
by 23.5%

2024-10-27
2024-10-30

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 06:56

2024-10-26 00:00

UC Berkeley w/6P

57.0%

8.0%

35.0%

Harris
by 22.0%

2024-10-22
2024-10-29

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 06:52

2024-10-17 12:00

ActiVote

62.8%

0.0%

37.2%

Harris
by 25.6%

2024-10-07
2024-10-27

2024-10-28
2024-10-28 20:21

2024-10-13 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

61.0%

2.4%

36.6%

Harris
by 24.4%

2024-10-12
2024-10-14

2024-10-16
2024-10-17 04:44

2024-10-13 12:00

Emerson [2]

59.1%

6.0%

34.9%

Harris
by 24.2%

2024-10-12
2024-10-14

2024-10-16
2024-10-17 04:40

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-10-12 12:00

YouGov RV [3]

60.0%

7.0%

33.0%

Harris
by 27.0%

2024-10-07
2024-10-17

2024-10-30
2024-10-30 17:31

2024-10-12 12:00

YouGov LV [3]

63.0%

3.0%

34.0%

Harris
by 29.0%

2024-10-07
2024-10-17

2024-10-30
2024-10-30 16:05

2024-10-12 12:00

YouGov RV w/Lean [3]

63.0%

3.0%

34.0%

Harris
by 29.0%

2024-10-07
2024-10-17

2024-10-30
2024-10-30 16:02

2024-10-11 12:00

PPIC w/6P

59.0%

8.0%

33.0%

Harris
by 26.0%

2024-10-07
2024-10-15

2024-10-24
2024-10-24 16:15

2024-10-01 12:00

ActiVote

63.5%

0.0%

36.5%

Harris
by 27.0%

2024-09-22
2024-10-10

2024-10-11
2024-10-11 18:39

2024-09-28 12:00

UC Berkeley w/6P

57.0%

8.0%

35.0%

Harris
by 22.0%

2024-09-25
2024-10-01

20224-10-10
2024-10-11 07:34

2024-09-19 00:00

CEPP w/Lean w/6P [2]

57.7%

6.8%

35.5%

Harris
by 22.2%

2024-09-12
2024-09-25

2024-09-30
2024-09-30 15:50

2024-09-19 00:00

CEPP w/6P [2]

56.5%

9.8%

33.7%

Harris
by 22.8%

2024-09-12
2024-09-25

2024-09-30
2024-09-30 15:47

2024-09-14 00:00

Capitol Weekly w/6P

59.0%

7.0%

34.0%

Harris
by 25.0%

2024-09-11
2024-09-16

2024-09-17
2024-09-18 03:00

2024-09-06 00:00

ActiVote

64.0%

0.0%

36.0%

Harris
by 28.0%

2024-08-21
2024-09-21

2024-09-22
2024-09-23 16:04

2024-09-04 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

60.8%

1.2%

38.0%

Harris
by 22.8%

2024-09-03
2024-09-05

2024-09-06
2024-09-06 18:08

2024-09-04 12:00

Emerson [2]

59.6%

4.7%

35.7%

Harris
by 23.9%

2024-09-03
2024-09-05

2024-09-06
2024-09-06 18:03

2024-09-04 00:00

PPIC w/6P

60.0%

11.0%

29.0%

Harris
by 31.0%

2024-08-29
2024-09-09

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 14:42

2024-08-25 00:00

Capitol Weekly w/6P

58.0%

6.0%

36.0%

Harris
by 22.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-09-02
2024-09-02 18:40

2024-08-14 12:00

Capitol Weekly w/6P

57.0%

6.0%

37.0%

Harris
by 20.0%

2024-08-13
2024-08-15

2024-08-26
2024-08-26 14:12

2024-08-11 00:00

ActiVote

65.3%

0.0%

34.7%

Harris
by 30.6%

2024-08-02
2024-08-19

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 22:26

2024-08-06 00:00

UC Berkeley

59.0%

7.0%

34.0%

Harris
by 25.0%

2024-07-31
2024-08-11

2024-08-14
2024-08-14 15:39

2024-07-26 12:00

Capitol Weekly w/5P

59.0%

6.0%

35.0%

Harris
by 24.0%

2024-07-25
2024-07-27

2024-07-30
2024-07-30 20:40

2024-07-21 00:00

Capitol Weekly w/5P

54.0%

13.0%

33.0%

Harris
by 21.0%

2024-07-19
2024-07-22

2024-07-29
2024-07-30 02:25

2024-07-13 12:00

Capitol Weekly w/5P

54.0%

11.0%

35.0%

Harris
by 19.0%

2024-07-12
2024-07-14

2024-07-29
2024-07-30 02:23

2023-11-13 00:00

Emerson

47.2%

14.9%

37.9%

Harris
by 9.3%

2023-11-11
2023-11-14

2023-11-17
2023-11-19 06:53

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

63.5%

2.2%

34.3%

DEM
by 29.2%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 01:36

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

61.7%

6.7%

31.6%

DEM
by 30.1%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 04:52

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

60.2%

2.6%

37.1%

DEM
by 23.1%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-21 23:09

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

61.0%

2.0%

37.0%

DEM
by 24.1%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-22 10:41

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

54.3%

1.3%

44.4%

DEM
by 10.0%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-13 23:30

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

53.5%

4.9%

41.7%

DEM
by 11.8%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-05 07:42

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

51.1%

10.7%

38.2%

DEM
by 12.9%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 08:15

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

46.0%

21.4%

32.6%

DEM
by 13.4%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:08

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

47.6%

1.3%

51.1%

REP
by 3.6%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 04:02

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

41.3%

1.2%

57.5%

REP
by 16.2%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:01

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

35.9%

11.4%

52.7%

REP
by 16.8%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:16

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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