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2024 Electoral College

Harris vs Trump - Texas [40 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-11-03 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-11-05 06:24 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Harris vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 Texas [40 EV] Poll Average

 

Harris Trump
 

 

2024 Texas [40 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Harris Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Harris Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-11-03 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

44.0%

1.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2024-11-01
2024-11-04

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 06:24

2024-11-03 00:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

44.0%

2.3%

53.7%

Trump
by 9.7%

2024-11-01
2024-11-04

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 06:22

2024-10-27 12:00

Cygnal

43.0%

6.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-10-26
2024-10-28

2024-10-30
2024-10-30 17:43

2024-10-27 00:00

Morning Consult

45.0%

3.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-10-22
2024-10-31

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 16:10

2024-10-25 00:00

Rasmussen

44.0%

6.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-10-24
2024-10-25

2024-10-28
2024-10-28 20:14

2024-10-25 00:00

Siena LV w/4P [5]

40.0%

9.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2024-10-23
2024-10-26

2024-10-28
2024-10-28 19:41

2024-10-25 00:00

Siena LV [5]

42.0%

6.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2024-10-23
2024-10-26

2024-10-28
2024-10-28 19:39

2024-10-25 00:00

Siena RV wo/Lean w/4P [5]

37.0%

15.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2024-10-23
2024-10-26

2024-10-28
2024-10-28 19:38

2024-10-25 00:00

Siena RV Combined w/4P [5]

40.0%

10.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2024-10-23
2024-10-26

2024-10-28
2024-10-28 19:36

2024-10-25 00:00

Siena RV [5]

41.0%

7.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2024-10-23
2024-10-26

2024-10-28
2024-10-28 19:29

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-10-24 12:00

ActiVote

45.0%

0.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2024-10-21
2024-10-27

2024-10-28
2024-10-28 19:53

2024-10-20 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

45.9%

1.0%

53.1%

Trump
by 7.2%

2024-10-18
2024-10-21

2024-10-23
2024-10-23 17:08

2024-10-20 00:00

Emerson [2]

45.5%

1.9%

52.6%

Trump
by 7.1%

2024-10-18
2024-10-21

2024-10-23
2024-10-23 17:05

2024-10-18 00:00

UT Tyler RV w/4P [2]

45.0%

4.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-10-14
2024-10-21

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 22:30

2024-10-18 00:00

UT Tyler LV w/4P [2]

46.0%

3.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-14
2024-10-21

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 22:27

2024-10-13 12:00

CCES LV [2]

47.0%

2.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-10-01
2024-10-25

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 21:57

2024-10-13 12:00

CCES All [2]

47.0%

2.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-10-01
2024-10-25

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 21:54

2024-10-12 12:00

YouGov RV [3]

44.0%

7.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-07
2024-10-17

2024-10-30
2024-10-30 17:39

2024-10-12 12:00

YouGov LV [3]

46.0%

3.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-07
2024-10-17

2024-10-30
2024-10-30 17:25

2024-10-12 12:00

YouGov RV w/Lean [3]

45.0%

5.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-07
2024-10-17

2024-10-30
2024-10-30 17:23

2024-10-11 00:00

Morning Consult

46.0%

4.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-10-06
2024-10-15

2024-10-17
2024-10-18 14:54

2024-10-08 12:00

Tarrance

45.0%

5.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-08
2024-10-08

2024-10-08
2024-10-15 02:40

2024-10-06 12:00

ActiVote

44.2%

0.0%

55.8%

Trump
by 11.6%

2024-09-26
2024-10-16

2024-10-17
2024-10-18 15:01

2024-10-06 12:00

YouGov w/4P

46.0%

3.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-02
2024-10-10

2024-10-18
2024-10-18 14:57

2024-10-05 12:00

Marist RV [2]

46.0%

2.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-10-03
2024-10-07

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 14:50

2024-10-05 12:00

Marist LV [2]

46.0%

1.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-10-03
2024-10-07

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 14:48

2024-10-04 12:00

Mainstreet LV [2]

45.0%

5.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-02
2024-10-06

2024-10-08
2024-10-08 16:46

2024-10-04 12:00

Mainstreet RV [2]

45.0%

5.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-02
2024-10-06

2024-10-08
2024-10-08 16:42

2024-10-03 12:00

YouGov w/4P

46.0%

3.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-09-26
2024-10-10

2024-10-15
2024-10-16 07:08

2024-10-03 00:00

CWS Research w/4P

43.0%

9.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-01
2024-10-04

2024-10-23
2024-10-23 16:59

2024-10-02 00:00

Siena LV Combined w/6P [5]

42.0%

9.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-09-29
2024-10-04

2024-10-08
2024-10-08 16:20

2024-10-02 00:00

Siena LV [5]

44.0%

6.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-09-29
2024-10-04

2024-10-08
2024-10-08 16:18

2024-10-02 00:00

Siena RV wo/Lean w/6P [5]

40.0%

15.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-09-29
2024-10-04

2024-10-08
2024-10-08 16:08

2024-10-02 00:00

Siena RV Combined w/6P [5]

41.0%

11.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-09-29
2024-10-04

2024-10-08
2024-10-08 16:06

2024-10-02 00:00

Siena RV [5]

44.0%

6.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-09-29
2024-10-04

2024-10-08
2024-10-08 15:58

2024-09-27 00:00

PPP [2]

46.0%

3.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-09-26
2024-09-27

2024-09-29
2024-09-30 16:33

2024-09-27 00:00

PPP w/4P [2]

44.0%

7.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-09-26
2024-09-27

2024-09-29
2024-09-30 16:28

2024-09-26 12:00

RMG Research w/Lean [2]

46.0%

1.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-09-25
2024-09-27

2024-10-01
2024-10-01 23:46

2024-09-26 12:00

RMG Research [2]

45.0%

4.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-09-25
2024-09-27

2024-10-01
2024-10-01 23:43

2024-09-23 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

46.7%

1.0%

52.3%

Trump
by 5.6%

2024-09-22
2024-09-24

2024-09-26
2024-09-26 15:48

2024-09-23 12:00

Emerson [2]

45.6%

3.5%

50.9%

Trump
by 5.3%

2024-09-22
2024-09-24

2024-09-26
2024-09-26 15:46

2024-09-16 00:00

ActiVote

45.7%

0.0%

54.3%

Trump
by 8.6%

2024-09-07
2024-09-24

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 07:01

2024-09-16 00:00

Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation

44.0%

6.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-09-13
2024-09-18

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 16:37

2024-09-15 12:00

Tarrance

46.0%

4.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-09-15
2024-09-15

2024-10-08
2024-10-15 02:39

2024-09-14 00:00

Morning Consult

45.8%

4.7%

49.6%

Trump
by 3.8%

2024-09-09
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-20 04:11

2024-09-07 00:00

CWS Research w/4P

41.0%

8.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2024-09-04
2024-09-09

2024-10-04
2024-10-04 16:09

2024-09-04 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

48.0%

1.1%

50.9%

Trump
by 2.9%

2024-09-03
2024-09-05

2024-09-06
2024-09-06 18:25

2024-09-04 12:00

Emerson [2]

46.1%

3.9%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.9%

2024-09-03
2024-09-05

2024-09-06
2024-09-06 18:21

2024-09-04 00:00

Morning Consult

43.0%

5.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-08-30
2024-09-08

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 06:57

2024-08-30 00:00

Quantus w/Lean [2]

44.0%

4.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-08-29
2024-08-30

2024-08-30
2024-08-31 02:03

2024-08-30 00:00

Quantus [2]

42.0%

9.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-08-29
2024-08-30

2024-08-30
2024-08-31 02:00

2024-08-27 12:00

YouGov w/3P [2]

44.0%

7.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-31

2024-09-06
2024-09-06 18:31

2024-08-27 12:00

YouGov [2]

44.0%

7.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-31

2024-09-06
2024-09-06 18:28

2024-08-27 00:00

Lake Research Strong w/4P [2]

39.0%

16.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-08-24
2024-08-29

2024-09-13
2024-09-13 17:42

2024-08-27 00:00

Lake Research Total w/4P [2]

43.0%

6.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-08-24
2024-08-29

2024-09-13
2024-09-13 17:39

2024-08-23 00:00

ActiVote

45.5%

0.0%

54.5%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-08-14
2024-08-31

2024-08-31
2024-08-31 19:42

2024-08-22 00:00

PPP [2]

44.0%

7.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-08-21
2024-08-22

2024-08-27
2024-08-27 15:27

2024-08-22 00:00

PPP w/5P [2]

42.0%

13.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-08-21
2024-08-22

2024-08-27
2024-08-27 15:24

2024-08-11 00:00

YouGov w/5P

44.6%

5.9%

49.5%

Trump
by 4.9%

2024-08-05
2024-08-16

2024-08-22
2024-08-22 15:56

2024-08-07 00:00

Activote

46.7%

0.0%

53.3%

Trump
by 6.6%

2024-07-31
2024-08-13

2024-08-13
2024-08-13 16:30

2024-01-18 00:00

YouGov

39.0%

9.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 13.0%

2024-01-11
2024-01-24

2024-01-30
2024-01-30 21:23

2023-05-13 00:00

Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation

39.0%

15.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2023-05-08
2023-05-17

2023-05-25
2023-05-25 02:22

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

46.5%

1.5%

52.1%

REP
by 5.6%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-17 05:55

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

43.2%

4.5%

52.2%

REP
by 9.0%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-24 18:11

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

41.4%

1.5%

57.2%

REP
by 15.8%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:13

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

43.7%

0.9%

55.5%

REP
by 11.8%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-06 01:52

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

38.2%

0.7%

61.1%

REP
by 22.9%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:11

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

38.0%

2.7%

59.3%

REP
by 21.3%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 11:05

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

43.8%

7.4%

48.8%

REP
by 4.9%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-18 15:44

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

37.1%

22.4%

40.6%

REP
by 3.5%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:58

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

43.4%

0.7%

56.0%

REP
by 12.6%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 20:01

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

36.1%

0.3%

63.6%

REP
by 27.5%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 07:07

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

41.4%

3.3%

55.3%

REP
by 13.9%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:20

 

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and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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