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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - New Hampshire [4 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-06-29 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-07-02 00:15 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 New Hampshire [4 EV] Poll Average

 

Biden Trump
 

 

2024 New Hampshire [4 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Biden Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Biden Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-06-29 00:00

Saint Anselm

42.0%

14.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-06-28
2024-06-29

2024-07-01
2024-07-02 00:15

2024-05-18 12:00

UNH [2]

52.0%

0.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2024-05-16
2024-05-20

2024-05-23
2024-05-24 04:41

2024-05-18 12:00

UNH w/5P [2]

44.0%

15.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2024-05-16
2024-05-20

2024-05-23
2024-05-24 04:39

2024-05-18 00:00

Praecones w/3P

36.5%

26.9%

36.6%

Trump
by 0.1%

2024-05-15
2024-05-20

2024-05-21
2024-05-21 16:37

2024-05-10 12:00

UML w/3P

42.0%

22.0%

36.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2024-05-06
2024-05-14

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 15:10

2024-04-17 12:00

Zogby

47.8%

8.1%

44.1%

Biden
by 3.7%

2024-04-13
2024-04-21

2024-04-30
2024-05-06 05:44

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-01-16 12:00

Marist LV w/3P [4]

45.0%

12.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-01-15
2024-01-17

2024-01-19
2024-01-20 01:05

2024-01-16 12:00

Marist RV w/3P [4]

44.0%

15.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2024-01-15
2024-01-17

2024-01-19
2024-01-20 01:04

2024-01-16 12:00

Marist LV [4]

51.0%

3.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2024-01-15
2024-01-17

2024-01-19
2024-01-20 01:02

2024-01-16 12:00

Marist RV [4]

52.0%

3.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2024-01-15
2024-01-17

2024-01-19
2024-01-20 00:59

2024-01-05 12:00

Suffolk w/7P

41.5%

24.4%

34.1%

Biden
by 7.4%

2024-01-03
2024-01-07

2024-01-09
2024-01-10 04:32

2023-12-19 00:00

Saint Anselm w/3P

49.0%

12.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2023-12-18
2023-12-19

2023-12-20
2023-12-20 22:22

2023-11-12 00:00

Emerson w/4P [2]

39.9%

23.4%

36.7%

Biden
by 3.2%

2023-11-10
2023-11-13

2023-11-15
2023-11-16 07:08

2023-11-12 00:00

Emerson [2]

46.5%

11.6%

41.9%

Biden
by 4.6%

2023-11-10
2023-11-13

2023-11-15
2023-11-16 07:06

2023-09-16 12:00

UNH

52.0%

8.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2023-09-14
2023-09-18

2023-09-22
2023-09-22 23:16

2023-08-10 12:00

Emerson w/3P [2]

44.0%

16.8%

39.2%

Biden
by 4.8%

2023-08-09
2023-08-11

2023-08-15
2023-08-15 14:09

2023-08-10 12:00

Emerson [2]

48.2%

10.9%

40.9%

Biden
by 7.3%

2023-08-09
2023-08-11

2023-08-15
2023-08-15 14:07

2023-07-08 12:00

American Pulse

52.0%

8.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2023-07-05
2023-07-11

2023-07-17
2023-07-17 17:49

2023-06-22 12:00

Saint Anselm

49.0%

11.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2023-06-21
2023-06-23

2023-06-27
2023-06-28 02:46

2023-03-04 12:00

Emerson

41.7%

20.3%

38.0%

Biden
by 3.7%

2023-03-03
2023-03-05

2023-03-07
2023-03-25 03:00

2023-01-26 00:00

co/efficient

40.0%

21.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2023-01-25
2023-01-26

2023-01-27
2023-03-25 00:32

2022-10-31 12:00

Emerson

45.2%

14.1%

40.7%

Biden
by 4.5%

2022-10-30
2022-11-01

2022-11-04
2023-03-24 03:01

2022-10-20 00:00

UMass Lowell

49.0%

8.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2022-10-14
2022-10-25

2022-11-03
2023-03-24 02:52

2022-10-19 00:00

Emerson

44.3%

13.0%

42.7%

Biden
by 1.6%

2022-10-18
2022-10-19

2022-10-24
2023-03-23 05:18

2022-09-15 00:00

Emerson

46.3%

10.5%

43.2%

Biden
by 3.1%

2022-09-14
2022-09-15

2022-09-16
2023-03-22 03:52

2022-06-18 12:00

UNH

50.0%

7.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2022-06-16
2022-06-20

2022-06-22
2023-03-20 16:54

2021-12-11 12:00

Trafalgar

45.9%

6.4%

47.7%

Trump
by 1.8%

2021-12-10
2021-12-12

2021-12-16
2023-03-20 13:45

2021-05-09 00:00

St Anselm

51.0%

6.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2021-05-07
2021-05-10

2021-06-12
2023-03-20 06:48

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

52.7%

1.9%

45.4%

DEM
by 7.4%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-16 15:36

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

47.0%

6.4%

46.6%

DEM
by 0.4%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 03:55

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

52.0%

1.6%

46.4%

DEM
by 5.6%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:47

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

54.1%

1.3%

44.5%

DEM
by 9.6%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:30

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

50.2%

0.9%

48.9%

DEM
by 1.4%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:52

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

46.8%

5.1%

48.1%

REP
by 1.3%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:28

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

49.3%

11.3%

39.4%

DEM
by 10.0%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 16:06

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

38.9%

23.4%

37.7%

DEM
by 1.2%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:20

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

36.3%

1.2%

62.5%

REP
by 26.2%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:22

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

31.0%

0.4%

68.7%

REP
by 37.7%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:35

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

28.4%

13.9%

57.7%

REP
by 29.4%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 18:54

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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