2024 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - New Hampshire [4 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-11-12 00:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2023-11-16 07:08 UTC
Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Biden vs DeSantis Biden vs Haley Harris vs Trump Biden vs Pence Biden vs Youngkin || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden <> Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-11-12 00:00
Emerson w/4P [2]
39.9%
23.4%
36.7%
Biden by 3.2%
2023-11-10 2023-11-13
2023-11-15 2023-11-16 07:08
2023-11-12 00:00
Emerson [2]
46.5%
11.6%
41.9%
Biden by 4.6%
2023-11-10 2023-11-13
2023-11-15 2023-11-16 07:06
2023-09-16 12:00
UNH
52.0%
8.0%
40.0%
Biden by 12.0%
2023-09-14 2023-09-18
2023-09-22 2023-09-22 23:16
2023-08-10 12:00
Emerson w/3P [2]
44.0%
16.8%
39.2%
Biden by 4.8%
2023-08-09 2023-08-11
2023-08-15 2023-08-15 14:09
2023-08-10 12:00
Emerson [2]
48.2%
10.9%
40.9%
Biden by 7.3%
2023-08-09 2023-08-11
2023-08-15 2023-08-15 14:07
2023-07-08 12:00
American Pulse
52.0%
8.0%
40.0%
Biden by 12.0%
2023-07-05 2023-07-11
2023-07-17 2023-07-17 17:49
2023-06-22 12:00
Saint Anselm
49.0%
11.0%
40.0%
Biden by 9.0%
2023-06-21 2023-06-23
2023-06-27 2023-06-28 02:46
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden <> Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-03-04 12:00
Emerson
41.7%
20.3%
38.0%
Biden by 3.7%
2023-03-03 2023-03-05
2023-03-07 2023-03-25 03:00
2023-01-26 00:00
co/efficient
40.0%
21.0%
39.0%
Biden by 1.0%
2023-01-25 2023-01-26
2023-01-27 2023-03-25 00:32
2022-10-31 12:00
Emerson
45.2%
14.1%
40.7%
Biden by 4.5%
2022-10-30 2022-11-01
2022-11-04 2023-03-24 03:01
2022-10-20 00:00
UMass Lowell
49.0%
8.0%
43.0%
Biden by 6.0%
2022-10-14 2022-10-25
2022-11-03 2023-03-24 02:52
2022-10-19 00:00
Emerson
44.3%
13.0%
42.7%
Biden by 1.6%
2022-10-18 2022-10-19
2022-10-24 2023-03-23 05:18
2022-09-15 00:00
Emerson
46.3%
10.5%
43.2%
Biden by 3.1%
2022-09-14 2022-09-15
2022-09-16 2023-03-22 03:52
2022-06-18 12:00
UNH
50.0%
7.0%
43.0%
Biden by 7.0%
2022-06-16 2022-06-20
2022-06-22 2023-03-20 16:54
2021-12-11 12:00
Trafalgar
45.9%
6.4%
47.7%
Trump by 1.8%
2021-12-10 2021-12-12
2021-12-16 2023-03-20 13:45
2021-05-09 00:00
St Anselm
51.0%
6.0%
43.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2021-05-07 2021-05-10
2021-06-12 2023-03-20 06:48
2020-11-03 12:00
Election2020
52.7%
1.9%
45.4%
DEM by 7.4%
2020-11-03 2020-11-03
2020-11-03 2023-03-16 15:36
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
47.0%
6.4%
46.6%
DEM by 0.4%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-20 03:55
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
52.0%
1.6%
46.4%
DEM by 5.6%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:47
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
54.1%
1.3%
44.5%
DEM by 9.6%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-09-30 03:30
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
50.2%
0.9%
48.9%
DEM by 1.4%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:52
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
46.8%
5.1%
48.1%
REP by 1.3%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:28
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
49.3%
11.3%
39.4%
DEM by 10.0%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-16 16:06
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
38.9%
23.4%
37.7%
DEM by 1.2%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:20
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
36.3%
1.2%
62.5%
REP by 26.2%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:22
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
31.0%
0.4%
68.7%
REP by 37.7%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-24 06:35
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
28.4%
13.9%
57.7%
REP by 29.4%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 18:54
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024 ".
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