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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Utah [6 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-04-17 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-05-08 04:26 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY, not how things may change before the election!
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by then!

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-04-17 12:00

Zogby

43.0%

11.3%

45.7%

Trump
by 2.7%

2024-04-13
2024-04-21

2024-04-30
2024-05-06 16:05

2024-04-12 12:00

Noble Predictive w/5P [2]

23.0%

30.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 24.0%

2024-04-08
2024-04-16

2024-05-01
2024-05-08 04:26

2024-04-12 12:00

Noble Predictive [2]

26.0%

20.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 28.0%

2024-04-08
2024-04-16

2024-05-01
2024-05-08 04:23

2024-03-02 00:00

Mainstreet LV [2]

38.2%

15.9%

45.9%

Trump
by 7.7%

2024-02-29
2024-03-03

2024-03-07
2024-03-07 22:36

2024-03-02 00:00

Mainstreet RV [2]

37.0%

16.7%

46.3%

Trump
by 9.3%

2024-02-29
2024-03-03

2024-03-07
2024-03-07 22:34

2024-01-19 00:00

Dan Jones

33.0%

24.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2024-01-16
2024-01-21

2024-02-05
2024-02-06 01:07

2022-10-27 00:00

Emerson

33.6%

19.4%

47.0%

Trump
by 13.4%

2022-10-25
2022-10-28

2022-10-31
2023-03-23 05:48

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

37.7%

4.2%

58.1%

REP
by 20.5%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-17 05:58

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

27.5%

27.0%

45.5%

REP
by 18.1%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-24 18:14

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

24.8%

2.5%

72.8%

REP
by 48.0%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:14

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

34.4%

3.0%

62.6%

REP
by 28.2%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-06 01:55

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

26.0%

2.5%

71.5%

REP
by 45.5%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:12

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

26.3%

6.8%

66.8%

REP
by 40.5%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 11:07

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

33.3%

12.3%

54.4%

REP
by 21.1%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-18 15:46

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

24.7%

32.0%

43.4%

REP
by 18.7%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 07:01

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

32.1%

1.7%

66.2%

REP
by 34.2%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 20:03

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

24.7%

0.8%

74.5%

REP
by 49.8%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 07:09

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

20.6%

6.7%

72.8%

REP
by 52.2%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:25

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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