2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - New Jersey [14 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-03-28 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-04-03 06:06 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by election day!
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY!

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-03-28 00:00

Emerson w/5P [2]

41.0%

23.2%

35.8%

Biden
by 5.2%

2024-03-26
2024-03-29

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 06:06

2024-03-28 00:00

Emerson [2]

45.7%

14.9%

39.4%

Biden
by 6.3%

2024-03-26
2024-03-29

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 06:03

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

57.3%

1.3%

41.4%

DEM
by 15.9%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-16 16:07

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

55.0%

4.0%

41.0%

DEM
by 14.0%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 03:59

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

58.4%

1.0%

40.6%

DEM
by 17.8%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:48

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

57.3%

1.0%

41.7%

DEM
by 15.6%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:32

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

52.9%

0.8%

46.2%

DEM
by 6.7%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:54

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

56.1%

3.6%

40.3%

DEM
by 15.8%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:30

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

53.7%

10.4%

35.9%

DEM
by 17.9%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 17:06

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

43.0%

16.5%

40.6%

DEM
by 2.4%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:23

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

42.6%

1.2%

56.2%

REP
by 13.6%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:24

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

39.2%

0.7%

60.1%

REP
by 20.9%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:37

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

38.6%

9.5%

52.0%

REP
by 13.4%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 18:55

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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