2024 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - North Carolina [16 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-11-28 12:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2023-12-06 01:57 UTC
Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Biden vs DeSantis Biden vs Haley Harris vs Trump Biden vs Pence Biden vs Youngkin || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden <> Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-11-28 12:00
Redfield & Wilton w/3P
35.0%
21.0%
44.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2023-11-27 2023-11-29
2023-12-05 2023-12-06 01:57
2023-11-03 12:00
Meredith
40.0%
21.0%
39.0%
Biden by 1.0%
2023-11-01 2023-11-05
2023-11-13 2023-11-13 20:19
2023-11-03 12:00
Morning Consult w/4P [2]
33.0%
25.0%
42.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2023-10-30 2023-11-07
2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:16
2023-11-03 12:00
Morning Consult [2]
39.0%
13.0%
48.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2023-10-30 2023-11-07
2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:13
2023-10-08 00:00
Morning Consult
43.0%
10.0%
47.0%
Trump by 4.0%
2023-10-05 2023-10-10
2023-10-19 2023-10-19 16:03
2023-10-08 00:00
Redfield & Wilton w/3P [2]
38.0%
21.0%
41.0%
Trump by 3.0%
2023-10-07 2023-10-08
2023-10-15 2023-10-16 04:53
2023-10-08 00:00
Redfield & Wilton [2]
38.0%
19.0%
43.0%
Trump by 5.0%
2023-10-07 2023-10-08
2023-10-15 2023-10-16 04:49
2023-09-03 12:00
Carolina Forward
42.0%
12.0%
46.0%
Trump by 4.0%
2023-09-01 2023-09-05
2023-09-11 2023-09-11 18:50
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden <> Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-06-21 12:00
Prime w/NL [2]
37.0%
18.0%
45.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2023-06-14 2023-06-28
2023-07-13 2023-08-15 14:26
2023-06-21 12:00
Prime [2]
46.0%
0.0%
54.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2023-06-14 2023-06-28
2023-07-13 2023-07-14 05:48
2023-06-06 12:00
Opinion Diagnostics
40.0%
17.0%
43.0%
Trump by 3.0%
2023-06-05 2023-06-07
2023-06-08 2023-06-09 18:40
2023-03-27 00:00
Cygnal Definitely [2]
41.2%
25.1%
33.7%
Biden by 7.5%
2023-03-26 2023-03-27
2023-03-30 2023-08-04 00:33
2023-03-27 00:00
Cygnal Total [2]
45.4%
11.2%
43.4%
Biden by 2.0%
2023-03-26 2023-03-27
2023-03-30 2023-03-31 00:41
2023-01-11 00:00
Differentiators
48.4%
7.0%
44.6%
Biden by 3.8%
2023-01-09 2023-01-12
2023-01-26 2023-03-25 00:27
2022-10-28 12:00
Emerson
40.1%
9.3%
50.6%
Trump by 10.5%
2022-10-27 2022-10-29
2022-11-02 2023-03-24 02:29
2022-10-08 00:00
Carolina Forward
44.0%
12.0%
44.0%
TIED
2022-10-07 2022-10-08
2022-11-28 2023-03-24 05:25
2022-09-30 12:00
SurveyUSA
45.0%
12.0%
43.0%
Biden by 2.0%
2022-09-28 2022-10-02
2022-10-03 2023-03-23 02:49
2022-09-16 00:00
Emerson
42.0%
11.0%
47.0%
Trump by 5.0%
2022-09-15 2022-09-16
2022-09-20 2023-03-23 01:29
2022-09-09 00:00
ECU
44.6%
9.3%
46.1%
Trump by 1.5%
2022-09-07 2022-09-10
2022-09-13 2023-03-22 02:58
2022-08-05 12:00
Blueprint
38.5%
16.7%
44.8%
Trump by 6.3%
2022-08-04 2022-08-06
2022-08-09 2023-03-21 03:33
2022-07-23 12:00
PEM
40.6%
11.4%
48.0%
Trump by 7.5%
2022-07-22 2022-07-24
2022-07-28 2023-03-21 02:39
2022-05-20 00:00
ECU
37.2%
16.4%
46.4%
Trump by 9.2%
2022-05-19 2022-05-20
2022-05-23 2023-03-20 16:36
2020-11-03 12:00
Election2020
48.6%
1.5%
49.9%
REP by 1.3%
2020-11-03 2020-11-03
2020-11-03 2023-03-16 16:21
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
46.2%
4.0%
49.8%
REP by 3.7%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-20 04:10
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
48.4%
1.3%
50.4%
REP by 2.0%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:03
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
49.7%
0.9%
49.4%
DEM by 0.3%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-09-30 03:36
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
43.6%
0.4%
56.0%
REP by 12.4%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:58
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
43.2%
0.8%
56.0%
REP by 12.8%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:38
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
44.0%
7.2%
48.7%
REP by 4.7%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-16 17:30
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
42.7%
13.9%
43.4%
REP by 0.8%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:35
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
41.7%
0.3%
58.0%
REP by 16.3%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:32
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
37.9%
0.2%
61.9%
REP by 24.0%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-24 06:45
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
47.2%
3.5%
49.3%
REP by 2.1%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:01
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024 ".
For more information, read the FAQ .
Page cached at 2023-12-09 10:29:20 UTC
Original calculation time was 12.364 seconds