2024 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - North Carolina [16 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-11-28 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2023-12-06 01:57 UTC

Best Polled:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2023-11-28 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/3P	35.0%	21.0%	44.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2023-11-27 2023-11-29	2023-12-05 2023-12-06 01:57
2023-11-03 12:00	Meredith	40.0%	21.0%	39.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2023-11-01 2023-11-05	2023-11-13 2023-11-13 20:19
2023-11-03 12:00	Morning Consult w/4P [2]	33.0%	25.0%	42.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2023-10-30 2023-11-07	2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:16
2023-11-03 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	39.0%	13.0%	48.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2023-10-30 2023-11-07	2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:13
2023-10-08 00:00	Morning Consult	43.0%	10.0%	47.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2023-10-05 2023-10-10	2023-10-19 2023-10-19 16:03
2023-10-08 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/3P [2]	38.0%	21.0%	41.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2023-10-07 2023-10-08	2023-10-15 2023-10-16 04:53
2023-10-08 00:00	Redfield & Wilton [2]	38.0%	19.0%	43.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-10-07 2023-10-08	2023-10-15 2023-10-16 04:49
2023-09-03 12:00	Carolina Forward	42.0%	12.0%	46.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2023-09-01 2023-09-05	2023-09-11 2023-09-11 18:50

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2023-06-21 12:00	Prime w/NL [2]	37.0%	18.0%	45.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2023-06-14 2023-06-28	2023-07-13 2023-08-15 14:26
2023-06-21 12:00	Prime [2]	46.0%	0.0%	54.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2023-06-14 2023-06-28	2023-07-13 2023-07-14 05:48
2023-06-06 12:00	Opinion Diagnostics	40.0%	17.0%	43.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2023-06-05 2023-06-07	2023-06-08 2023-06-09 18:40
2023-03-27 00:00	Cygnal Definitely [2]	41.2%	25.1%	33.7%	Biden by 7.5%	2023-03-26 2023-03-27	2023-03-30 2023-08-04 00:33
2023-03-27 00:00	Cygnal Total [2]	45.4%	11.2%	43.4%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-03-26 2023-03-27	2023-03-30 2023-03-31 00:41
2023-01-11 00:00	Differentiators	48.4%	7.0%	44.6%	Biden by 3.8%	2023-01-09 2023-01-12	2023-01-26 2023-03-25 00:27
2022-10-28 12:00	Emerson	40.1%	9.3%	50.6%	Trump by 10.5%	2022-10-27 2022-10-29	2022-11-02 2023-03-24 02:29
2022-10-08 00:00	Carolina Forward	44.0%	12.0%	44.0%	TIED	2022-10-07 2022-10-08	2022-11-28 2023-03-24 05:25
2022-09-30 12:00	SurveyUSA	45.0%	12.0%	43.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2022-09-28 2022-10-02	2022-10-03 2023-03-23 02:49
2022-09-16 00:00	Emerson	42.0%	11.0%	47.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2022-09-15 2022-09-16	2022-09-20 2023-03-23 01:29
2022-09-09 00:00	ECU	44.6%	9.3%	46.1%	Trump by 1.5%	2022-09-07 2022-09-10	2022-09-13 2023-03-22 02:58
2022-08-05 12:00	Blueprint	38.5%	16.7%	44.8%	Trump by 6.3%	2022-08-04 2022-08-06	2022-08-09 2023-03-21 03:33
2022-07-23 12:00	PEM	40.6%	11.4%	48.0%	Trump by 7.5%	2022-07-22 2022-07-24	2022-07-28 2023-03-21 02:39
2022-05-20 00:00	ECU	37.2%	16.4%	46.4%	Trump by 9.2%	2022-05-19 2022-05-20	2022-05-23 2023-03-20 16:36
2020-11-03 12:00	Election2020	48.6%	1.5%	49.9%	REP by 1.3%	2020-11-03 2020-11-03	2020-11-03 2023-03-16 16:21
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	46.2%	4.0%	49.8%	REP by 3.7%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-20 04:10
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	48.4%	1.3%	50.4%	REP by 2.0%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:03
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	49.7%	0.9%	49.4%	DEM by 0.3%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-30 03:36
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	43.6%	0.4%	56.0%	REP by 12.4%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:58
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	43.2%	0.8%	56.0%	REP by 12.8%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:38
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	44.0%	7.2%	48.7%	REP by 4.7%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 17:30
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	42.7%	13.9%	43.4%	REP by 0.8%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:35
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	41.7%	0.3%	58.0%	REP by 16.3%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:32
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	37.9%	0.2%	61.9%	REP by 24.0%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-24 06:45
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	47.2%	3.5%	49.3%	REP by 2.1%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:01

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and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

For more information, read the FAQ.

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