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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - North Carolina [16 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-07-17 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-07-21 19:17 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 North Carolina [16 EV] Poll Average

 

Biden Trump
 

 

2024 North Carolina [16 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Biden Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Biden Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-07-17 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

39.0%

16.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-07-16
2024-07-18

2024-07-21
2024-07-21 19:17

2024-07-16 00:00

Emerson w/6P [2]

37.6%

15.4%

47.0%

Trump
by 9.4%

2024-07-15
2024-07-16

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 05:12

2024-07-16 00:00

Emerson [2]

40.7%

11.6%

47.7%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-07-15
2024-07-16

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 05:11

2024-07-09 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

42.0%

14.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-08
2024-07-10

2024-07-15
2024-07-16 04:50

2024-07-08 12:00

YouGov LV w/5P [2]

42.0%

12.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-07-04
2024-07-12

2024-07-15
2024-07-16 17:42

2024-07-08 12:00

YouGov RV w/5P [2]

40.0%

16.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-07-04
2024-07-12

2024-07-15
2024-07-16 17:26

2024-07-03 12:00

Morning Consult w/6P [2]

40.0%

18.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-01
2024-07-05

2024-07-06
2024-07-06 18:55

2024-07-03 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

43.0%

11.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-07-01
2024-07-05

2024-07-06
2024-07-06 16:36

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-06-12 12:00

Innovative Research w/3P

41.0%

6.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2024-06-07
2024-06-17

2024-07-05
2024-07-11 15:07

2024-06-10 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

40.0%

17.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-06-08
2024-06-11

2024-06-17
2024-06-17 17:12

2024-06-09 12:00

Spry w/3P [2]

37.0%

18.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-06-07
2024-06-11

2024-06-18
2024-06-18 16:22

2024-06-09 12:00

Spry [2]

44.0%

8.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-06-07
2024-06-11

2024-06-18
2024-06-18 16:17

2024-06-02 00:00

ECU

43.3%

8.9%

47.8%

Trump
by 4.5%

2024-05-31
2024-06-03

2024-06-06
2024-06-06 19:08

2024-05-31 12:00

North Star w/5P [2]

32.0%

24.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 12.0%

2024-05-29
2024-06-02

2024-06-02
2024-06-04 09:12

2024-05-31 12:00

North Star [2]

41.0%

10.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-05-29
2024-06-02

2024-06-02
2024-06-04 09:05

2024-05-16 00:00

Change Research w/3P [2]

38.0%

21.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-05-13
2024-05-18

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 21:32

2024-05-16 00:00

Change Research [2]

43.0%

12.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-05-13
2024-05-18

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 21:30

2024-05-13 00:00

Prime w/5P [2]

42.0%

13.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-05-09
2024-05-16

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 19:17

2024-05-13 00:00

Prime [2]

49.0%

0.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-05-09
2024-05-16

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 19:13

2024-05-10 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

42.0%

9.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-05-08
2024-05-12

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 21:27

2024-05-10 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

38.0%

16.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-05-08
2024-05-12

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 21:17

2024-05-10 00:00

BSG/GS [2]

41.0%

11.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-05-06
2024-05-13

2024-05-23
2024-05-24 03:19

2024-05-10 00:00

BSG/GS w/5P [2]

36.0%

20.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-05-06
2024-05-13

2024-05-23
2024-05-24 03:11

2024-05-06 00:00

HPU RV [2]

42.0%

14.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-05-02
2024-05-09

2024-05-23
2024-05-24 03:52

2024-05-06 00:00

HPU All [2]

38.0%

19.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-05-02
2024-05-09

2024-05-23
2024-05-24 03:50

2024-05-05 00:00

Cygnal Total w/3P [2]

38.1%

19.3%

42.6%

Trump
by 4.5%

2024-05-04
2024-05-05

2024-05-09
2024-05-10 05:05

2024-05-05 00:00

Cygnal Definitely w/3P [2]

30.9%

33.6%

35.5%

Trump
by 4.6%

2024-05-04
2024-05-05

2024-05-09
2024-05-10 05:02

2024-05-03 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

37.0%

19.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-05-02
2024-05-04

2024-05-13
2024-05-13 18:15

2024-04-27 12:00

Emerson w/5P [3]

37.2%

16.5%

46.3%

Trump
by 9.1%

2024-04-25
2024-04-29

2024-04-30
2024-04-30 15:46

2024-04-27 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

48.1%

0.0%

51.9%

Trump
by 3.8%

2024-04-25
2024-04-29

2024-04-30
2024-04-30 15:45

2024-04-27 12:00

Emerson [3]

42.2%

10.4%

47.4%

Trump
by 5.2%

2024-04-25
2024-04-29

2024-04-30
2024-04-30 15:43

2024-04-27 00:00

Meeting Street w/5P

35.0%

25.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-04-25
2024-04-28

2024-05-31
2024-05-31 16:53

2024-04-17 12:00

Zogby

44.8%

5.8%

49.4%

Trump
by 4.6%

2024-04-13
2024-04-21

2024-04-30
2024-05-06 08:36

2024-04-14 12:00

Meredith w/3P

39.0%

20.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-04-11
2024-04-17

2024-04-22
2024-04-23 03:20

2024-04-11 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

41.0%

8.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2024-04-08
2024-04-14

2024-04-24
2024-04-24 15:12

2024-04-11 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

38.0%

14.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2024-04-08
2024-04-14

2024-04-24
2024-04-24 15:00

2024-04-11 12:00

Mason-Dixon

43.0%

8.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-04-09
2024-04-13

2024-04-19
2024-04-19 22:41

2024-04-08 00:00

Cygnal Total w/3P [2]

39.0%

17.7%

43.3%

Trump
by 4.3%

2024-04-07
2024-04-08

2024-04-11
2024-04-11 19:01

2024-04-08 00:00

Cygnal Definitely w/3P [2]

30.9%

33.8%

35.3%

Trump
by 4.4%

2024-04-07
2024-04-08

2024-04-11
2024-04-11 18:58

2024-04-06 12:00

Quinnipiac w/5P [2]

38.0%

21.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-04-04
2024-04-08

2024-04-10
2024-04-10 18:33

2024-04-06 12:00

Quinnipiac [2]

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-04-04
2024-04-08

2024-04-10
2024-04-10 18:29

2024-03-26 12:00

HPU RV [2]

42.0%

13.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-03-22
2024-03-30

2024-04-11
2024-04-11 18:50

2024-03-26 12:00

HPU All [2]

38.0%

19.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-03-22
2024-03-30

2024-04-11
2024-04-11 18:48

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Total [4]

43.0%

8.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 05:28

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Definitely [4]

36.0%

21.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 05:25

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee w/4P [4]

38.0%

17.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 05:23

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee w/6P [4]

34.0%

24.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 05:15

2024-03-18 12:00

Emerson

44.7%

8.4%

46.9%

Trump
by 2.2%

2024-03-16
2024-03-20

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 06:02

2024-03-16 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

39.0%

18.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-03-14
2024-03-17

2024-03-25
2024-03-25 18:58

2024-03-13 12:00

YouGov

44.0%

11.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-03-07
2024-03-19

2024-03-27
2024-04-19 22:50

2024-03-13 00:00

Marist w/3P [2]

43.0%

11.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-03-11
2024-03-14

2024-03-20
2024-03-21 02:23

2024-03-13 00:00

Marist [2]

48.0%

1.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-03-11
2024-03-14

2024-03-20
2024-03-21 02:21

2024-03-10 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

43.0%

8.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-03-08
2024-03-12

2024-03-26
2024-03-26 11:21

2024-03-10 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

39.0%

16.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-03-08
2024-03-12

2024-03-26
2024-03-26 11:18

2024-03-07 00:00

Cygnal Total [2]

39.8%

15.0%

45.2%

Trump
by 5.4%

2024-03-06
2024-03-07

2024-03-12
2024-03-13 05:14

2024-03-07 00:00

Cygnal Definitely [2]

33.2%

25.7%

41.1%

Trump
by 7.9%

2024-03-06
2024-03-07

2024-03-12
2024-03-13 05:11

2024-03-06 12:00

SurveyUSA

45.0%

5.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-03-03
2024-03-09

2024-03-12
2024-03-13 05:18

2024-03-02 00:00

Mainstreet LV [2]

40.2%

5.9%

53.9%

Trump
by 13.7%

2024-02-29
2024-03-03

2024-03-07
2024-03-07 22:19

2024-03-02 00:00

Mainstreet RV [2]

40.1%

7.9%

52.0%

Trump
by 11.9%

2024-02-29
2024-03-03

2024-03-07
2024-03-07 22:17

2024-02-15 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

41.0%

9.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-02-12
2024-02-18

2024-02-28
2024-03-01 06:52

2024-02-15 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

35.0%

20.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2024-02-12
2024-02-18

2024-02-28
2024-03-01 06:50

2024-02-15 12:00

Emerson w/5P [2]

36.7%

17.4%

45.9%

Trump
by 9.2%

2024-02-14
2024-02-16

2024-02-21
2024-02-22 02:44

2024-02-15 12:00

Emerson [2]

43.7%

9.7%

46.6%

Trump
by 2.9%

2024-02-14
2024-02-16

2024-02-21
2024-02-22 02:41

2024-02-11 00:00

ECU w/5P

43.6%

9.7%

46.7%

Trump
by 3.1%

2024-02-09
2024-02-12

2024-02-16
2024-02-17 17:02

2024-02-10 12:00

Beacon/Shaw [2]

45.0%

5.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-02-08
2024-02-12

2024-02-14
2024-02-16 03:32

2024-02-10 12:00

Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]

37.0%

17.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-02-08
2024-02-12

2024-02-14
2024-02-16 03:30

2024-02-02 00:00

North Star w/3P

32.0%

29.0%

39.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-01-30
2024-02-04

2024-02-06
2024-02-09 02:45

2024-01-29 00:00

Meredith

39.0%

17.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-01-26
2024-01-31

2024-02-05
2024-02-06 01:13

2024-01-19 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

39.0%

12.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2024-01-16
2024-01-21

2024-01-31
2024-01-31 19:29

2024-01-19 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

32.0%

23.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 13.0%

2024-01-16
2024-01-21

2024-01-31
2024-01-31 19:26

2023-12-29 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

33.0%

30.0%

37.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2023-12-28
2023-12-30

2024-01-08
2024-01-08 22:43

2023-12-02 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

40.0%

11.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-06

2023-12-14
2023-12-15 02:01

2023-12-02 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

34.0%

21.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-06

2023-12-14
2023-12-15 01:58

2023-11-28 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

35.0%

21.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2023-11-27
2023-11-29

2023-12-05
2023-12-06 01:57

2023-11-05 12:00

Martin and Blaine

43.0%

11.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2023-11-04
2023-11-06

2023-11-16
2024-04-19 23:11

2023-11-03 12:00

Meredith

40.0%

21.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2023-11-01
2023-11-05

2023-11-13
2023-11-13 20:19

2023-11-03 12:00

Morning Consult w/4P [2]

33.0%

25.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2023-10-30
2023-11-07

2023-11-10
2023-11-10 20:16

2023-11-03 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

39.0%

13.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2023-10-30
2023-11-07

2023-11-10
2023-11-10 20:13

2023-10-08 00:00

Morning Consult

43.0%

10.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2023-10-05
2023-10-10

2023-10-19
2023-10-19 16:03

2023-10-08 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P [2]

38.0%

21.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2023-10-07
2023-10-08

2023-10-15
2023-10-16 04:53

2023-10-08 00:00

Redfield & Wilton [2]

38.0%

19.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-10-07
2023-10-08

2023-10-15
2023-10-16 04:49

2023-09-03 12:00

Carolina Forward

42.0%

12.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2023-09-01
2023-09-05

2023-09-11
2023-09-11 18:50

2023-06-21 12:00

Prime w/NL [2]

37.0%

18.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2023-06-14
2023-06-28

2023-07-13
2023-08-15 14:26

2023-06-21 12:00

Prime [2]

46.0%

0.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2023-06-14
2023-06-28

2023-07-13
2023-07-14 05:48

2023-06-06 12:00

Opinion Diagnostics

40.0%

17.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2023-06-05
2023-06-07

2023-06-08
2023-06-09 18:40

2023-03-27 00:00

Cygnal Definitely [2]

41.2%

25.1%

33.7%

Biden
by 7.5%

2023-03-26
2023-03-27

2023-03-30
2023-08-04 00:33

2023-03-27 00:00

Cygnal Total [2]

45.4%

11.2%

43.4%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-03-26
2023-03-27

2023-03-30
2023-03-31 00:41

2023-01-11 00:00

Differentiators

48.4%

7.0%

44.6%

Biden
by 3.8%

2023-01-09
2023-01-12

2023-01-26
2023-03-25 00:27

2022-10-28 12:00

Emerson

40.1%

9.3%

50.6%

Trump
by 10.5%

2022-10-27
2022-10-29

2022-11-02
2023-03-24 02:29

2022-10-08 00:00

Carolina Forward

44.0%

12.0%

44.0%

TIED

2022-10-07
2022-10-08

2022-11-28
2023-03-24 05:25

2022-09-30 12:00

SurveyUSA

45.0%

12.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2022-09-28
2022-10-02

2022-10-03
2023-03-23 02:49

2022-09-16 00:00

Emerson

42.0%

11.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2022-09-15
2022-09-16

2022-09-20
2023-03-23 01:29

2022-09-09 00:00

ECU

44.6%

9.3%

46.1%

Trump
by 1.5%

2022-09-07
2022-09-10

2022-09-13
2023-03-22 02:58

2022-08-05 12:00

Blueprint

38.5%

16.7%

44.8%

Trump
by 6.3%

2022-08-04
2022-08-06

2022-08-09
2023-03-21 03:33

2022-07-23 12:00

PEM

40.6%

11.4%

48.0%

Trump
by 7.5%

2022-07-22
2022-07-24

2022-07-28
2023-03-21 02:39

2022-05-20 00:00

ECU

37.2%

16.4%

46.4%

Trump
by 9.2%

2022-05-19
2022-05-20

2022-05-23
2023-03-20 16:36

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

48.6%

1.5%

49.9%

REP
by 1.3%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-16 16:21

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

46.2%

4.0%

49.8%

REP
by 3.7%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 04:10

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

48.4%

1.3%

50.4%

REP
by 2.0%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:03

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

49.7%

0.9%

49.4%

DEM
by 0.3%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:36

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

43.6%

0.4%

56.0%

REP
by 12.4%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:58

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

43.2%

0.8%

56.0%

REP
by 12.8%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:38

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

44.0%

7.2%

48.7%

REP
by 4.7%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 17:30

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

42.7%

13.9%

43.4%

REP
by 0.8%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:35

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

41.7%

0.3%

58.0%

REP
by 16.3%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:32

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

37.9%

0.2%

61.9%

REP
by 24.0%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:45

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

47.2%

3.5%

49.3%

REP
by 2.1%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:01

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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Read the Election Graphs blog posts.

 

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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