2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - California [54 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-04-20 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-05-08 04:44 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY, not how things may change before the election!
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by then!

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-04-20 00:00

Bullfinch w/5P [3]

48.0%

24.0%

28.0%

Biden
by 20.0%

2024-04-16
2024-04-23

2024-05-02
2024-05-08 04:44

2024-04-20 00:00

Bullfinch Total [3]

59.0%

7.0%

34.0%

Biden
by 25.0%

2024-04-16
2024-04-23

2024-05-02
2024-05-08 04:42

2024-04-20 00:00

Bullfinch Definitely [3]

50.0%

22.0%

28.0%

Biden
by 22.0%

2024-04-16
2024-04-23

2024-05-02
2024-05-08 04:41

2024-04-17 12:00

Zogby

55.6%

6.5%

37.9%

Biden
by 17.7%

2024-04-13
2024-04-21

2024-04-30
2024-05-05 04:52

2024-03-22 12:00

PPIC

54.0%

15.0%

31.0%

Biden
by 23.0%

2024-03-19
2024-03-25

2024-04-11
2024-04-11 18:40

2024-03-02 00:00

Mainstreet LV [2]

56.3%

6.3%

37.4%

Biden
by 18.9%

2024-02-29
2024-03-03

2024-03-07
2024-03-07 21:49

2024-03-02 00:00

Mainstreet RV [2]

54.4%

9.3%

36.3%

Biden
by 18.1%

2024-02-29
2024-03-03

2024-03-07
2024-03-07 21:48

2024-02-26 00:00

Emerson w/5P [2]

50.8%

17.7%

31.5%

Biden
by 19.3%

2024-02-24
2024-02-27

2023-02-28
2024-03-01 07:26

2024-02-26 00:00

Emerson [2]

56.5%

8.4%

35.1%

Biden
by 21.4%

2024-02-24
2024-02-27

2024-02-28
2024-03-01 07:24

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-02-24 12:00

Berkeley IGS w/5P [2]

40.0%

32.0%

28.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2024-02-22
2024-02-26

2024-03-05
2024-03-05 22:04

2024-02-24 12:00

Berkeley IGS [2]

52.0%

14.0%

34.0%

Biden
by 18.0%

2024-02-22
2024-02-26

2024-03-05
2024-03-05 22:00

2024-02-17 12:00

Emerson w/5P [2]

48.9%

20.4%

30.7%

Biden
by 18.2%

2024-02-16
2024-02-18

2024-02-20
2024-02-21 03:02

2024-02-17 12:00

Emerson [2]

55.3%

12.1%

32.6%

Biden
by 22.7%

2024-02-16
2024-02-18

2024-02-20
2024-02-21 03:00

2024-02-10 00:00

PPIC

55.0%

13.0%

32.0%

Biden
by 23.0%

2024-02-06
2024-02-13

2024-02-23
2024-02-25 08:00

2024-01-25 12:00

CEPP w/6P

53.0%

22.0%

25.0%

Biden
by 28.0%

2024-01-21
2024-01-29

2024-02-01
2024-02-02 03:47

2024-01-13 00:00

Emerson w/5P [2]

46.5%

21.8%

31.7%

Biden
by 14.8%

2024-01-11
2024-01-14

2024-01-18
2024-01-18 17:39

2024-01-13 00:00

Emerson [2]

54.4%

11.9%

33.7%

Biden
by 20.7%

2024-01-11
2024-01-14

2024-01-18
2024-01-18 17:34

2024-01-06 12:00

Berkeley IGS [2]

56.0%

7.0%

37.0%

Biden
by 19.0%

2024-01-04
2024-01-08

2024-01-15
2024-01-15 23:28

2024-01-06 12:00

Berkeley IGS w/5P [2]

47.0%

22.0%

31.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2024-01-04
2024-01-08

2024-01-15
2024-01-15 23:21

2023-11-13 00:00

PPIC

54.0%

16.0%

30.0%

Biden
by 24.0%

2023-11-09
2023-11-16

2023-12-07
2023-12-08 01:24

2023-11-13 00:00

Emerson w/5P [2]

43.3%

25.9%

30.8%

Biden
by 12.5%

2023-11-11
2023-11-14

2023-11-17
2023-11-19 06:46

2023-11-13 00:00

Emerson [2]

49.9%

13.2%

36.9%

Biden
by 13.0%

2023-11-11
2023-11-14

2023-11-17
2023-11-19 06:37

2023-10-27 12:00

Berkeley IGS w/4P [2]

43.0%

28.0%

29.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2023-10-24
2023-10-30

2023-11-08
2023-11-09 00:46

2023-10-27 12:00

Berkeley IGS [2]

46.0%

23.0%

31.0%

Biden
by 15.0%

2023-10-24
2023-10-30

2023-11-08
2023-11-09 00:42

2023-10-11 12:00

PPIC

60.0%

11.0%

29.0%

Biden
by 31.0%

2023-10-03
2023-10-19

2023-11-09
2023-11-10 01:22

2023-10-01 12:00

Data Viewpoint

67.4%

0.0%

32.6%

Biden
by 34.8%

2023-10-01
2023-10-01

2023-10-03
2023-10-04 03:44

2023-08-31 00:00

PPIC

57.0%

17.0%

26.0%

Biden
by 31.0%

2023-08-25
2023-09-05

2023-09-27
2023-09-27 17:33

2023-08-27 00:00

Berkeley IGS

51.0%

18.0%

31.0%

Biden
by 20.0%

2023-08-24
2023-08-29

2023-09-06
2023-09-07 04:28

2023-06-19 00:00

PPIC

57.0%

12.0%

31.0%

Biden
by 26.0%

2023-06-08
2023-06-29

2023-07-13
2023-07-14 07:01

2023-06-06 00:00

Emerson

53.5%

14.8%

31.7%

Biden
by 21.8%

2023-06-04
2023-06-07

2023-06-12
2023-06-14 15:09

2023-05-21 00:00

PPIC

58.0%

17.0%

25.0%

Biden
by 33.0%

2023-05-17
2023-05-24

2023-06-06
2023-06-07 00:58

2023-02-17 12:00

Berkeley IGS LV [2]

59.0%

12.0%

29.0%

Biden
by 30.0%

2023-02-14
2023-02-20

2023-02-24
2023-03-25 01:15

2023-02-17 12:00

Berkeley IGS RV [2]

57.0%

16.0%

27.0%

Biden
by 30.0%

2023-02-14
2023-02-20

2023-02-24
2023-03-25 01:14

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

63.5%

2.2%

34.3%

DEM
by 29.2%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 01:36

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

61.7%

6.7%

31.6%

DEM
by 30.1%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 04:52

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

60.2%

2.6%

37.1%

DEM
by 23.1%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-21 23:09

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

61.0%

2.0%

37.0%

DEM
by 24.1%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-22 10:41

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

54.3%

1.3%

44.4%

DEM
by 10.0%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-13 23:30

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

53.5%

4.9%

41.7%

DEM
by 11.8%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-05 07:42

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

51.1%

10.7%

38.2%

DEM
by 12.9%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 08:15

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

46.0%

21.4%

32.6%

DEM
by 13.4%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:08

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

47.6%

1.3%

51.1%

REP
by 3.6%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 04:02

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

41.3%

1.2%

57.5%

REP
by 16.2%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:01

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

35.9%

11.4%

52.7%

REP
by 16.8%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:16

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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