2024 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - California [54 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-11-13 00:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2023-12-08 01:24 UTC
Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Biden vs DeSantis Biden vs Haley Harris vs Trump Biden vs Pence Biden vs Youngkin || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden <> Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-11-13 00:00
PPIC
54.0%
16.0%
30.0%
Biden by 24.0%
2023-11-09 2023-11-16
2023-12-07 2023-12-08 01:24
2023-11-13 00:00
Emerson w/5P [2]
43.3%
25.9%
30.8%
Biden by 12.5%
2023-11-11 2023-11-14
2023-11-17 2023-11-19 06:46
2023-11-13 00:00
Emerson [2]
49.9%
13.2%
36.9%
Biden by 13.0%
2023-11-11 2023-11-14
2023-11-17 2023-11-19 06:37
2023-10-27 12:00
UC Berkeley w/4P [2]
43.0%
28.0%
29.0%
Biden by 14.0%
2023-10-24 2023-10-30
2023-11-08 2023-11-09 00:46
2023-10-27 12:00
UC Berkeley [2]
46.0%
23.0%
31.0%
Biden by 15.0%
2023-10-24 2023-10-30
2023-11-08 2023-11-09 00:42
2023-10-11 12:00
PPIC
60.0%
11.0%
29.0%
Biden by 31.0%
2023-10-03 2023-10-19
2023-11-09 2023-11-10 01:22
2023-10-01 12:00
Data Viewpoint
67.4%
0.0%
32.6%
Biden by 34.8%
2023-10-01 2023-10-01
2023-10-03 2023-10-04 03:44
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden <> Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-08-31 00:00
PPIC
57.0%
17.0%
26.0%
Biden by 31.0%
2023-08-25 2023-09-05
2023-09-27 2023-09-27 17:33
2023-08-27 00:00
UC Berkeley
51.0%
18.0%
31.0%
Biden by 20.0%
2023-08-24 2023-08-29
2023-09-06 2023-09-07 04:28
2023-06-19 00:00
PPIC
57.0%
12.0%
31.0%
Biden by 26.0%
2023-06-08 2023-06-29
2023-07-13 2023-07-14 07:01
2023-06-06 00:00
Emerson
53.5%
14.8%
31.7%
Biden by 21.8%
2023-06-04 2023-06-07
2023-06-12 2023-06-14 15:09
2023-05-21 00:00
PPIC
58.0%
17.0%
25.0%
Biden by 33.0%
2023-05-17 2023-05-24
2023-06-06 2023-06-07 00:58
2023-02-17 12:00
UC Berkeley LV [2]
59.0%
12.0%
29.0%
Biden by 30.0%
2023-02-14 2023-02-20
2023-02-24 2023-03-25 01:15
2023-02-17 12:00
UC Berkeley RV [2]
57.0%
16.0%
27.0%
Biden by 30.0%
2023-02-14 2023-02-20
2023-02-24 2023-03-25 01:14
2020-11-03 12:00
Election2020
63.5%
2.2%
34.3%
DEM by 29.2%
2020-11-03 2020-11-03
2020-11-03 2023-03-15 01:36
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
61.7%
6.7%
31.6%
DEM by 30.1%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-18 04:52
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
60.2%
2.6%
37.1%
DEM by 23.1%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-21 23:09
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
61.0%
2.0%
37.0%
DEM by 24.1%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-09-22 10:41
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
54.3%
1.3%
44.4%
DEM by 10.0%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-13 23:30
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
53.5%
4.9%
41.7%
DEM by 11.8%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-05 07:42
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
51.1%
10.7%
38.2%
DEM by 12.9%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-16 08:15
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
46.0%
21.4%
32.6%
DEM by 13.4%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:08
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
47.6%
1.3%
51.1%
REP by 3.6%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 04:02
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
41.3%
1.2%
57.5%
REP by 16.2%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:01
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
35.9%
11.4%
52.7%
REP by 16.8%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:16
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024 ".
For more information, read the FAQ .
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