2024 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - California [54 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-11-13 00:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2023-12-08 01:24 UTC
Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Biden vs DeSantis Biden vs Haley Harris vs Trump Biden vs Pence Biden vs Youngkin || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden <> Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-11-13 00:00
PPIC
54.0%
16.0%
30.0%
Biden
2023-11-09
2023-12-07
2023-11-13 00:00
Emerson w/5P [2]
43.3%
25.9%
30.8%
Biden
2023-11-11
2023-11-17
2023-11-13 00:00
Emerson [2]
49.9%
13.2%
36.9%
Biden
2023-11-11
2023-11-17
2023-10-27 12:00
UC Berkeley w/4P [2]
43.0%
28.0%
29.0%
Biden
2023-10-24
2023-11-08
2023-10-27 12:00
UC Berkeley [2]
46.0%
23.0%
31.0%
Biden
2023-10-24
2023-11-08
2023-10-11 12:00
PPIC
60.0%
11.0%
29.0%
Biden
2023-10-03
2023-11-09
2023-10-01 12:00
Data Viewpoint
67.4%
0.0%
32.6%
Biden
2023-10-01
2023-10-03
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden <> Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-08-31 00:00
PPIC
57.0%
17.0%
26.0%
Biden
2023-08-25
2023-09-27
2023-08-27 00:00
UC Berkeley
51.0%
18.0%
31.0%
Biden
2023-08-24
2023-09-06
2023-06-19 00:00
PPIC
57.0%
12.0%
31.0%
Biden
2023-06-08
2023-07-13
2023-06-06 00:00
Emerson
53.5%
14.8%
31.7%
Biden
2023-06-04
2023-06-12
2023-05-21 00:00
PPIC
58.0%
17.0%
25.0%
Biden
2023-05-17
2023-06-06
2023-02-17 12:00
UC Berkeley LV [2]
59.0%
12.0%
29.0%
Biden
2023-02-14
2023-02-24
2023-02-17 12:00
UC Berkeley RV [2]
57.0%
16.0%
27.0%
Biden
2023-02-14
2023-02-24
2020-11-03 12:00
Election2020
63.5%
2.2%
34.3%
DEM
2020-11-03
2020-11-03
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
61.7%
6.7%
31.6%
DEM
2016-11-08
2016-11-08
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
60.2%
2.6%
37.1%
DEM
2012-11-06
2012-11-06
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
61.0%
2.0%
37.0%
DEM
2008-11-04
2008-11-04
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
54.3%
1.3%
44.4%
DEM
2004-11-02
2004-11-02
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
53.5%
4.9%
41.7%
DEM
2000-11-07
2000-11-07
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
51.1%
10.7%
38.2%
DEM
1996-11-06
1996-11-06
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
46.0%
21.4%
32.6%
DEM
1992-11-03
1992-11-03
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
47.6%
1.3%
51.1%
REP
1988-11-08
1988-11-08
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
41.3%
1.2%
57.5%
REP
1984-11-06
1984-11-06
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
35.9%
11.4%
52.7%
REP
1980-11-04
1980-11-04
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024 ".
For more information, read the FAQ .
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