2024 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - California [54 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-03-22 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-04-11 18:40 UTC

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY, not how things may change before the election!
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by then!

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2024-03-22 12:00	PPIC	54.0%	15.0%	31.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2024-03-19 2024-03-25	2024-04-11 2024-04-11 18:40
2024-03-02 00:00	Mainstreet LV [2]	56.3%	6.3%	37.4%	Biden by 18.9%	2024-02-29 2024-03-03	2024-03-07 2024-03-07 21:49
2024-03-02 00:00	Mainstreet RV [2]	54.4%	9.3%	36.3%	Biden by 18.1%	2024-02-29 2024-03-03	2024-03-07 2024-03-07 21:48
2024-02-26 00:00	Emerson w/5P [2]	50.8%	17.7%	31.5%	Biden by 19.3%	2024-02-24 2024-02-27	2023-02-28 2024-03-01 07:26
2024-02-26 00:00	Emerson [2]	56.5%	8.4%	35.1%	Biden by 21.4%	2024-02-24 2024-02-27	2024-02-28 2024-03-01 07:24
2024-02-24 12:00	Berkeley IGS w/5P [2]	40.0%	32.0%	28.0%	Biden by 12.0%	2024-02-22 2024-02-26	2024-03-05 2024-03-05 22:04
2024-02-24 12:00	Berkeley IGS [2]	52.0%	14.0%	34.0%	Biden by 18.0%	2024-02-22 2024-02-26	2024-03-05 2024-03-05 22:00
2024-02-17 12:00	Emerson w/5P [2]	48.9%	20.4%	30.7%	Biden by 18.2%	2024-02-16 2024-02-18	2024-02-20 2024-02-21 03:02
2024-02-17 12:00	Emerson [2]	55.3%	12.1%	32.6%	Biden by 22.7%	2024-02-16 2024-02-18	2024-02-20 2024-02-21 03:00

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2024-02-10 00:00	PPIC	55.0%	13.0%	32.0%	Biden by 23.0%	2024-02-06 2024-02-13	2024-02-23 2024-02-25 08:00
2024-01-25 12:00	CEPP w/6P	53.0%	22.0%	25.0%	Biden by 28.0%	2024-01-21 2024-01-29	2024-02-01 2024-02-02 03:47
2024-01-13 00:00	Emerson w/5P [2]	46.5%	21.8%	31.7%	Biden by 14.8%	2024-01-11 2024-01-14	2024-01-18 2024-01-18 17:39
2024-01-13 00:00	Emerson [2]	54.4%	11.9%	33.7%	Biden by 20.7%	2024-01-11 2024-01-14	2024-01-18 2024-01-18 17:34
2024-01-06 12:00	Berkeley IGS [2]	56.0%	7.0%	37.0%	Biden by 19.0%	2024-01-04 2024-01-08	2024-01-15 2024-01-15 23:28
2024-01-06 12:00	Berkeley IGS w/5P [2]	47.0%	22.0%	31.0%	Biden by 16.0%	2024-01-04 2024-01-08	2024-01-15 2024-01-15 23:21
2023-11-13 00:00	PPIC	54.0%	16.0%	30.0%	Biden by 24.0%	2023-11-09 2023-11-16	2023-12-07 2023-12-08 01:24
2023-11-13 00:00	Emerson w/5P [2]	43.3%	25.9%	30.8%	Biden by 12.5%	2023-11-11 2023-11-14	2023-11-17 2023-11-19 06:46
2023-11-13 00:00	Emerson [2]	49.9%	13.2%	36.9%	Biden by 13.0%	2023-11-11 2023-11-14	2023-11-17 2023-11-19 06:37
2023-10-27 12:00	Berkeley IGS w/4P [2]	43.0%	28.0%	29.0%	Biden by 14.0%	2023-10-24 2023-10-30	2023-11-08 2023-11-09 00:46
2023-10-27 12:00	Berkeley IGS [2]	46.0%	23.0%	31.0%	Biden by 15.0%	2023-10-24 2023-10-30	2023-11-08 2023-11-09 00:42
2023-10-11 12:00	PPIC	60.0%	11.0%	29.0%	Biden by 31.0%	2023-10-03 2023-10-19	2023-11-09 2023-11-10 01:22
2023-10-01 12:00	Data Viewpoint	67.4%	0.0%	32.6%	Biden by 34.8%	2023-10-01 2023-10-01	2023-10-03 2023-10-04 03:44
2023-08-31 00:00	PPIC	57.0%	17.0%	26.0%	Biden by 31.0%	2023-08-25 2023-09-05	2023-09-27 2023-09-27 17:33
2023-08-27 00:00	Berkeley IGS	51.0%	18.0%	31.0%	Biden by 20.0%	2023-08-24 2023-08-29	2023-09-06 2023-09-07 04:28
2023-06-19 00:00	PPIC	57.0%	12.0%	31.0%	Biden by 26.0%	2023-06-08 2023-06-29	2023-07-13 2023-07-14 07:01
2023-06-06 00:00	Emerson	53.5%	14.8%	31.7%	Biden by 21.8%	2023-06-04 2023-06-07	2023-06-12 2023-06-14 15:09
2023-05-21 00:00	PPIC	58.0%	17.0%	25.0%	Biden by 33.0%	2023-05-17 2023-05-24	2023-06-06 2023-06-07 00:58
2023-02-17 12:00	Berkeley IGS LV [2]	59.0%	12.0%	29.0%	Biden by 30.0%	2023-02-14 2023-02-20	2023-02-24 2023-03-25 01:15
2023-02-17 12:00	Berkeley IGS RV [2]	57.0%	16.0%	27.0%	Biden by 30.0%	2023-02-14 2023-02-20	2023-02-24 2023-03-25 01:14
2020-11-03 12:00	Election2020	63.5%	2.2%	34.3%	DEM by 29.2%	2020-11-03 2020-11-03	2020-11-03 2023-03-15 01:36
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	61.7%	6.7%	31.6%	DEM by 30.1%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-18 04:52
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	60.2%	2.6%	37.1%	DEM by 23.1%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-21 23:09
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	61.0%	2.0%	37.0%	DEM by 24.1%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-22 10:41
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	54.3%	1.3%	44.4%	DEM by 10.0%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-13 23:30
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	53.5%	4.9%	41.7%	DEM by 11.8%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-05 07:42
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	51.1%	10.7%	38.2%	DEM by 12.9%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 08:15
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	46.0%	21.4%	32.6%	DEM by 13.4%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:08
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	47.6%	1.3%	51.1%	REP by 3.6%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 04:02
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	41.3%	1.2%	57.5%	REP by 16.2%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:01
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	35.9%	11.4%	52.7%	REP by 16.8%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:16

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

For more information, read the FAQ.

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